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frankv
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  #2486215 19-May-2020 11:32
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tdgeek:

 

Trouble is, it will take decades upon decades to migrate 1.6M vehciles to electric, yet if a Govt wanted to replace Huntly with green energy that would take far less time. Plus, Hybrids are the go, as they are well priced

 

 

I fear you are probably right about the vehicles. The cost of EV and ICEV ownership will probably remain about equal.

 

When everyone is driving EVs and flying electric planes (or not driving and flying at all, as we saw somewhat during the covid-19 lockdown), oil in the ground will be near worthless. So oil producers need to get it out of the ground and sold before EVs become ubiquitous. So as the price of EVs decreases, the price of oil will also reduce to remain competitive. World oil reserves are about 47 years at current usage... that might stretch to 100 years as more people move to EVs.

 

 


HarmLessSolutions
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  #2486217 19-May-2020 11:33
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Obraik:

 

Huntly's coal contribution is minimal even when it's at full capacity. On the rare occasion that it is operating at full capacity, coal produced power makes up only 5%. Even if it was higher, there's been numerous studies showing that EVs powered only by coal still have a lower carbon footprint than an ICE vehicle.

 

The issue I've been alerted to by those (on other forums) negative to EV uptake is their claim that Huntly burns coal to contribute generation to cope with peak or increased consumption and this is exacerbated by the charging of an increasing EV fleet. I see this as wrongly blaming EVs for inadequacies in NZ's current generation capacity.

 

While PV (and wind) generation is discontinuous and in the case of PV is subject to daily and seasonal fluctuations it can still become a useful input to national generation during the times that it is productive and if well managed could be used to offset other generation including hydro, in that case effectively using reduced water discharge as a virtual storage (battery) capacity for PV and wind generation.

 

The charging of EVs from domestic or commercial scale PV can be regarded as a golden opportunity to reduce CC emissions but it can well do without our national generation capacity being supplemented by thermal generation.

 

https://www.transpower.co.nz/power-system-live-data

 

 


 
 
 
 


frankv
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  #2486222 19-May-2020 11:35
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maxeon:

 

I have recently installed 20 panels and Tesla Battery. Monthly average savings is 200 dollars. 

 

 

If you're in the southern hemisphere and recent means 6 months or less, your average is likely to fall in the next 6 months.

 

I'd be interested to know your savings after you've had it for a year.

 

 


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2486223 19-May-2020 11:36
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tdgeek:

 

Im not sure what it would takle to replace Huntly with green, but if we decide to wait till everyone drives an EV, thats decades too late

 

 

There are a number of consented power plants that could take the place of Huntly. There are a few hydro, tidal and geothermal consented plants on that list that when combined would provide the equivalent of Huntly.


HarmLessSolutions
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  #2486225 19-May-2020 11:40
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frankv:

 

tdgeek:

 

Trouble is, it will take decades upon decades to migrate 1.6M vehciles to electric, yet if a Govt wanted to replace Huntly with green energy that would take far less time. Plus, Hybrids are the go, as they are well priced

 

 

I fear you are probably right about the vehicles. The cost of EV and ICEV ownership will probably remain about equal.

 

When everyone is driving EVs and flying electric planes (or not driving and flying at all, as we saw somewhat during the covid-19 lockdown), oil in the ground will be near worthless. So oil producers need to get it out of the ground and sold before EVs become ubiquitous. So as the price of EVs decreases, the price of oil will also reduce to remain competitive. World oil reserves are about 47 years at current usage... that might stretch to 100 years as more people move to EVs.

 

 

 

The long term model of EV uptake is well presented by Tony Seba in this TED talk style presentation. An hour long but well worth the time to watch. While some of his futurist predictions aren't directly applicable to NZ we will still be effected by downstream results of many of the points presented.

 


tdgeek
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  #2486227 19-May-2020 11:41
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Im not sure what it would takle to replace Huntly with green, but if we decide to wait till everyone drives an EV, thats decades too late

 

 

There are a number of consented power plants that could take the place of Huntly. There are a few hydro, tidal and geothermal consented plants on that list that when combined would provide the equivalent of Huntly.

 

 

I know the list. Where are they? When is Huntly scheduled for decommissioning?  The answers are, no change and no idea, as there is no intent desire in NZ to do this. 


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2486233 19-May-2020 11:46
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HarmLessSolutions:

 

The issue I've been alerted to by those (on other forums) negative to EV uptake is their claim that Huntly burns coal to contribute generation to cope with peak or increased consumption and this is exacerbated by the charging of an increasing EV fleet. I see this as wrongly blaming EVs for inadequacies in NZ's current generation capacity.

 

While PV (and wind) generation is discontinuous and in the case of PV is subject to daily and seasonal fluctuations it can still become a useful input to national generation during the times that it is productive and if well managed could be used to offset other generation including hydro, in that case effectively using reduced water discharge as a virtual storage (battery) capacity for PV and wind generation.

 

The charging of EVs from domestic or commercial scale PV can be regarded as a golden opportunity to reduce CC emissions but it can well do without our national generation capacity being supplemented by thermal generation.

 

https://www.transpower.co.nz/power-system-live-data

 

 

 

 

The people that bring up Huntly as a reason not to buy an EV are also the type of people will have a different made-up reason not to get an EV once Huntly is shut down. Most people understand that Huntly's coal generation is tiny (even at full capacity) and doesn't negate an EV's ability to reduce our carbon emissions. Huntly is due to be completely coalless by 2030.


 
 
 
 


HarmLessSolutions
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  #2486236 19-May-2020 11:55
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Im not sure what it would takle to replace Huntly with green, but if we decide to wait till everyone drives an EV, thats decades too late

 

 

There are a number of consented power plants that could take the place of Huntly. There are a few hydro, tidal and geothermal consented plants on that list that when combined would provide the equivalent of Huntly.

 

It is interesting to see the amount of distributed generation that is being installed in NZ. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_New_Zealand

 

While not individually up to the scale of those consented plants the cumulative capacity of large numbers of domestic and commercial all serves to offset NZ's ongoing electricity needs. This isn't restricted to a dozen or so PV panels on peoples roofs as the planned installations at Marsden Point Refinery and other such large scale commercial undertakings suggest.

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/electricity/news/article.cfm?c_id=187&objectid=12282426


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2486241 19-May-2020 12:01
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tdgeek:

 

I know the list. Where are they? When is Huntly scheduled for decommissioning?  The answers are, no change and no idea, as there is no intent desire in NZ to do this. 

 

 

Turitea is being constructed at the moment, which according to that wiki article, is bringing 180MW potential to the grid. Huntly is having the last of its coal production decommissioned in the next 10 years.


tdgeek
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  #2486244 19-May-2020 12:04
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

I know the list. Where are they? When is Huntly scheduled for decommissioning?  The answers are, no change and no idea, as there is no intent desire in NZ to do this. 

 

 

Turitea is being constructed at the moment, which according to that wiki article, is bringing 180MW potential to the grid. Huntly is having the last of its coal production decommissioned in the next 10 years.

 

 

Ok, lets hope there is zero FF generation here by 2030


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2486257 19-May-2020 12:19
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tdgeek:

 

Ok, lets hope there is zero FF generation here by 2030

 

 

We won't be at 0, but the 85% number will have increased. 

 

As has already been discussed in this thread though, moving from above 90% renewable power generation becomes very expensive with very little gain to our carbon emissions. We're far better off spending that time and money on curtailing other areas of high emissions, such as transport.


tdgeek
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  #2486277 19-May-2020 12:41
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Ok, lets hope there is zero FF generation here by 2030

 

 

We won't be at 0, but the 85% number will have increased. 

 

As has already been discussed in this thread though, moving from above 90% renewable power generation becomes very expensive with very little gain to our carbon emissions. We're far better off spending that time and money on curtailing other areas of high emissions, such as transport.

 

 

Going green is costly. Its also costly for transport. Many that can afford a standard 60k EV, won't. Many that cannot afford it, also won't. If we need to wait till EVs are a lot closer in price, and we have many used ones for sale, thats not saving emmissions much is it? Decades long plan, do we have decades? Light and medium commercal can manage it, they do the k's so its viable, but mass EV's for the populous is not an option, not any time soon, so its not an emmissions benefit when it matters. They arent being produced in numbers anyway. Like 100% renewable its too costly so lets not do it. New ICE are cheap right now, Hybrids are cheap, 2 to 4k more than the petrol model, thats whats happening today.


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2486281 19-May-2020 12:46
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tdgeek:

 

Going green is costly. Its also costly for transport. Many that can afford a standard 60k EV, won't. Many that cannot afford it, also won't. If we need to wait till EVs are a lot closer in price, and we have many used ones for sale, thats not saving emmissions much is it? Decades long plan, do we have decades? Light and medium commercal can manage it, they do the k's so its viable, but mass EV's for the populous is not an option, not any time soon, so its not an emmissions benefit when it matters. They arent being produced in numbers anyway. Like 100% renewable its too costly so lets not do it. New ICE are cheap right now, Hybrids are cheap, 2 to 4k more than the petrol model, thats whats happening today.

 

 

...which is why the government needs to be working on ways to make an EV the more attractive option. Hence my claim of putting the time and money into bringing down our transport emissions.


maxeon
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  #2486284 19-May-2020 12:50
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tdgeek:

 

maxeon:

 

 

 

I can give you my example. I have recently installed 20 panels and Tesla Battery. Monthly average savings is 200 dollars. 

 

I spent 30k for the entire setup by taking up a home loan topup for it at 3.5% interest. That's nearly 1200 dollars in interest per year to save 2400 in power per year. My net savings are 1200 approx per year. ROI is very low however I own the hardware for years and it goes with the house.  

 

I get to keep it and sell it as part of my house chattle. If you look it at as an investment that can sell when you do sell the house, it might be worth it. 

 

 

20 panels so thats around 6.6kW? Mate has 9kW, PW2, I have his PW2 app on my phone, Winter its low, when you need it. Summer its high when you dont need it, if youve been saving 200 per month you won't do that in the winter months, not even close. If you get the right size, if you timeshift, you can maximise it, and the key benefit is after the so called payback its free, but its better on a long term house ownership IMO. The PW2 is very cool, but it will take a lifetime to recover the cost, they need to be cehaper. His was 15k went up to 18k, I assume they are dropping maybe. PV is a great idea but for many it doesnt add up. Solar HW does though, thats excellent

 

 

No, my panes are 5kW. PW2 (individual) can only take upto 5kW max throughput. 

 

Winter is low - agree. Hence I said 200 per month on average. I have never unused it and my mention of savings include "export" I do when I don't use it. I have a EV so I more likely use it. 

 

 

 

Yes it is a very long term thing, and I don't see it as an effort to recover costs. It's an investment to offset the bill (Power bill money is a complete waste of money) along with having an increase value of your house when you do try to sell it. 

 

 

 

If you are ONLY after ROI when you procure this, you will never get it until the warranty runs out (10 years or more). 

 

My PW2 was 15k including certified installation and Gateway version 2. 


HarmLessSolutions
35 posts

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  #2486293 19-May-2020 12:59
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Going green is costly. Its also costly for transport. Many that can afford a standard 60k EV, won't. Many that cannot afford it, also won't. If we need to wait till EVs are a lot closer in price, and we have many used ones for sale, thats not saving emmissions much is it? Decades long plan, do we have decades? Light and medium commercal can manage it, they do the k's so its viable, but mass EV's for the populous is not an option, not any time soon, so its not an emmissions benefit when it matters. They arent being produced in numbers anyway. Like 100% renewable its too costly so lets not do it. New ICE are cheap right now, Hybrids are cheap, 2 to 4k more than the petrol model, thats whats happening today.

 

 

...which is why the government needs to be working on ways to make an EV the more attractive option. Hence my claim of putting the time and money into bringing down our transport emissions.

 

This flowchart shows clearly the wastage (and fossil fuel reliance) of transportation in NZ. The most striking issue is the huge degree of wasted energy in the transport sector. 80% of the energy consumed there is "Rejected" AKA wasted, primarily as heat I imagine. This is the most recent chart prepared for NZ and it would be interesting to see how much we've progressed in the last 9 years.

 

Click to see full size

 

Other country's charts available here.


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