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tdgeek
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  #2486294 19-May-2020 13:00
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Going green is costly. Its also costly for transport. Many that can afford a standard 60k EV, won't. Many that cannot afford it, also won't. If we need to wait till EVs are a lot closer in price, and we have many used ones for sale, thats not saving emmissions much is it? Decades long plan, do we have decades? Light and medium commercal can manage it, they do the k's so its viable, but mass EV's for the populous is not an option, not any time soon, so its not an emmissions benefit when it matters. They arent being produced in numbers anyway. Like 100% renewable its too costly so lets not do it. New ICE are cheap right now, Hybrids are cheap, 2 to 4k more than the petrol model, thats whats happening today.

 

 

...which is why the government needs to be working on ways to make an EV the more attractive option. Hence my claim of putting the time and money into bringing down our transport emissions.

 

 

They already have, a subsidy. Its worked overseas hasnt it? But you still end up with a $52,000 Leaf. If its going to take decades, its hard to justify throwing cash at people so they can buy new cars. Then you need the cars to  be arriving at the wharves by the thousands. The fact is they are not being produced in numbers, so no Govt cash donations to new car owners will help that


NzBeagle
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  #2486298 19-May-2020 13:04
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frankv:

 

I fear you are probably right about the vehicles. The cost of EV and ICEV ownership will probably remain about equal.

 

When everyone is driving EVs and flying electric planes (or not driving and flying at all, as we saw somewhat during the covid-19 lockdown), oil in the ground will be near worthless. So oil producers need to get it out of the ground and sold before EVs become ubiquitous. So as the price of EVs decreases, the price of oil will also reduce to remain competitive. World oil reserves are about 47 years at current usage... that might stretch to 100 years as more people move to EVs.

 

 

This above, how many have been driving but managed to suitably not drive, and find other ways of work. There may always be circumstances requiring driving, but less personal automobile usage in the future could prove successful. Pre-lockdown levels are coming back fairly rapidly now it would seem, so perhaps it wasn't as enlightening as it needed to be.


 
 
 
 


tdgeek
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  #2486304 19-May-2020 13:11
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If EV's were a lot closer to ICE and arrived by their thousands at wharves in NZ every month, they would be flying out the door. Because they save money. Most people are selfish, or need to be. They won't buy a basic car for 52k. If the ICE version was a fair buy and the EV version was 8k more and you will save 2.5k a year then out comes the chequebook. Similarly, people wont buy the ICE version then write out a big cheque and donate that to climate change either. You are paying for so much petrol in an inflated EV price that it borders on ridiculous. Years and years of transport. Thats what people see. If manufacturers produce low numbers the costs will be higher, people wont buy. Early adopters will but that wont save the planet, and that is the state of play right now. Its not worth it for the vast majority to buy an EV, if you can source one, that is.


tdgeek
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  #2486321 19-May-2020 13:19
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NzBeagle:

 

frankv:

 

I fear you are probably right about the vehicles. The cost of EV and ICEV ownership will probably remain about equal.

 

When everyone is driving EVs and flying electric planes (or not driving and flying at all, as we saw somewhat during the covid-19 lockdown), oil in the ground will be near worthless. So oil producers need to get it out of the ground and sold before EVs become ubiquitous. So as the price of EVs decreases, the price of oil will also reduce to remain competitive. World oil reserves are about 47 years at current usage... that might stretch to 100 years as more people move to EVs.

 

 

This above, how many have been driving but managed to suitably not drive, and find other ways of work. There may always be circumstances requiring driving, but less personal automobile usage in the future could prove successful. Pre-lockdown levels are coming back fairly rapidly now it would seem, so perhaps it wasn't as enlightening as it needed to be.

 

 

Yep, we love our cars, or the independence they bring.


Technofreak
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  #2486326 19-May-2020 13:36
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maxeon:

 

I can give you my example. I have recently installed 20 panels and Tesla Battery. Monthly average savings is 200 dollars. 

 

I spent 30k for the entire setup by taking up a home loan topup for it at 3.5% interest. That's nearly 1200 dollars in interest per year to save 2400 in power per year. My net savings are 1200 approx per year. ROI is very low however I own the hardware for years and it goes with the house.  

 

I get to keep it and sell it as part of my house chattle. If you look it at as an investment that can sell when you do sell the house, it might be worth it. 

 

 

You've only factored in the interest costs. There are other costs.

 

For one, there's the opportunity cost of the $30,000. That money still has to be earned in order to pay back the capital you borrowed. For example you could have been putting that money into your retirement savings instead.  You now have an increased mortgage payment per week or a longer term on your mortgage.

 

For another you don't seem to have taken into account the depreciation costs of the PV system. Nothing lasts for ever it's going to be worth less over time. If you gave it a 30 year life span, that's $1000 per year in costs right there.

 

You don't seen to have factored in any running costs. The batteries will need replacing from time to time. I expect the odd PV panel will fail from time to time.

 

Good on you for having the conviction to spend a significant amount of money on this system however I don't think your net savings are anywhere near $1200 per year.

 

If you break even I'd say you've done very well. I think that's the most I'd expect and would be very happy if I could achieve break even.





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Obraik
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  #2486329 19-May-2020 13:42
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tdgeek:

 

They already have, a subsidy. Its worked overseas hasnt it? But you still end up with a $52,000 Leaf. If its going to take decades, its hard to justify throwing cash at people so they can buy new cars. Then you need the cars to  be arriving at the wharves by the thousands. The fact is they are not being produced in numbers, so no Govt cash donations to new car owners will help that

 

 

We don't have a subsidy anymore because NZ First killed it.

 

There is plenty of EV supply to be had, however New Zealand isn't prioritized because yes, they're too expensive here to drive the demand. So, the supply goes to the countries with high demands from their enticing subsidies. 


tdgeek
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  #2486338 19-May-2020 13:55
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

They already have, a subsidy. Its worked overseas hasnt it? But you still end up with a $52,000 Leaf. If its going to take decades, its hard to justify throwing cash at people so they can buy new cars. Then you need the cars to  be arriving at the wharves by the thousands. The fact is they are not being produced in numbers, so no Govt cash donations to new car owners will help that

 

 

We don't have a subsidy anymore because NZ First killed it.

 

There is plenty of EV supply to be had, however New Zealand isn't prioritized because yes, they're too expensive here to drive the demand. So, the supply goes to the countries with high demands from their enticing subsidies. 

 

 

Killed it?? Really?

 

Green co-leader James Shaw said if NZ First ultimately decided to block the policy, his party would take it to the election.

 

That now looks likely. It is understood this measure was weighed up by the NZ First caucus and it decided such a policy needed to go to the electorate."We can confirm NZ First are holding up the rollout of policy that would mean cheaper electric and hybrid cars for New Zealanders," Shaw said

 

Doesnt seem killed to me. When is the election? About 16 weeks. $8000 is enticing? Ok :-)  So, is global production approaching ICE levels now? So I assume prices have decreased quite a bit?

 

 


 
 
 
 


tdgeek
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  #2486342 19-May-2020 14:00
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Global production seems to be at 5%  One twentieth of what is needed. (global light vehicles) I dont see that as plenty of EV suppy TBH


wellygary
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  #2486353 19-May-2020 14:23
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tdgeek:

 

Killed it?? Really?

 

Green co-leader James Shaw said if NZ First ultimately decided to block the policy, his party would take it to the election.

 

That now looks likely. It is understood this measure was weighed up by the NZ First caucus and it decided such a policy needed to go to the electorate."We can confirm NZ First are holding up the rollout of policy that would mean cheaper electric and hybrid cars for New Zealanders," Shaw said

 

Doesnt seem killed to me. When is the election? About 16 weeks. $8000 is enticing? Ok :-)  So, is global production approaching ICE levels now? So I assume prices have decreased quite a bit?

 

 

The policy will not be implemented under the current government..... That's sounds pretty dead to me.....

 

Now, What the Greens and Labour and NZ First negotiate for the next government is a matter for the future, and if NZ first doesn't make it back it might be a more generous policy, but its highly likely there will need to be new consolation, and the implementation will certainly not be in 1 Jan 2021.......

 

It might happen, it might not, its all up to politics and votes..


tdgeek
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  #2486370 19-May-2020 14:52
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wellygary:

 

The policy will not be implemented under the current government..... That's sounds pretty dead to me.....

 

Now, What the Greens and Labour and NZ First negotiate for the next government is a matter for the future, and if NZ first doesn't make it back it might be a more generous policy, but its highly likely there will need to be new consolation, and the implementation will certainly not be in 1 Jan 2021.......

 

It might happen, it might not, its all up to politics and votes..

 

 

It might happen isnt the same as dead. Greens amd Labour its still on the table, election in 16 weeks, its not inconceivable that they don't need NZF. As its been decided upon, if NZF are out, it doesn't need to start from scratch, so it wouldn't be age away. Personally I dont agree with it, giving handouts to those of us that can afford it anyway. When they are produced in real numbers and the price is fair, they will sell. Recent events dont support a cash for new cars policy


Obraik
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  #2486376 19-May-2020 15:04
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tdgeek:

 

It might happen isnt the same as dead. Greens amd Labour its still on the table, election in 16 weeks, its not inconceivable that they don't need NZF. As its been decided upon, if NZF are out, it doesn't need to start from scratch, so it wouldn't be age away. Personally I dont agree with it, giving handouts to those of us that can afford it anyway. When they are produced in real numbers and the price is fair, they will sell. Recent events dont support a cash for new cars policy

 

 

Sure, let's ignore what is clearly working in other developed countries 🙃


tdgeek
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  #2486432 19-May-2020 15:27
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

It might happen isnt the same as dead. Greens amd Labour its still on the table, election in 16 weeks, its not inconceivable that they don't need NZF. As its been decided upon, if NZF are out, it doesn't need to start from scratch, so it wouldn't be age away. Personally I dont agree with it, giving handouts to those of us that can afford it anyway. When they are produced in real numbers and the price is fair, they will sell. Recent events dont support a cash for new cars policy

 

 

Sure, let's ignore what is clearly working in other developed countries 🙃

 

 

Every other country is the same as NZ? So, poor people can now buy EV's? Or a person who wants an EV and can afford one, will now pull the trigger but wasnt going to before? Wow. There will be some that feel that 8k is a lot of money, always get them, hang out for the last cent. For a 60k car 8k is chicken feed. If subsidies are annnounced as they always have been people will wait, like the emmissons people here that waited  and are waiting. Had there been no subsidy forecasted they would have bought. Hang a carrot, paying full price seems unfair. So i dont buy it myself.


Obraik
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  #2486457 19-May-2020 16:12
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The discussion has been had on this topic within this thread countless times now so I'm not really prepared to go through all that again. Just know that I still consider you incorrect for all the same reasons as last time.


maxeon
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  #2486458 19-May-2020 16:16
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Technofreak:

 

maxeon:

 

I can give you my example. I have recently installed 20 panels and Tesla Battery. Monthly average savings is 200 dollars. 

 

I spent 30k for the entire setup by taking up a home loan topup for it at 3.5% interest. That's nearly 1200 dollars in interest per year to save 2400 in power per year. My net savings are 1200 approx per year. ROI is very low however I own the hardware for years and it goes with the house.  

 

I get to keep it and sell it as part of my house chattle. If you look it at as an investment that can sell when you do sell the house, it might be worth it. 

 

 

You've only factored in the interest costs. There are other costs.

 

For one, there's the opportunity cost of the $30,000. That money still has to be earned in order to pay back the capital you borrowed. For example you could have been putting that money into your retirement savings instead.  You now have an increased mortgage payment per week or a longer term on your mortgage.

 

For another you don't seem to have taken into account the depreciation costs of the PV system. Nothing lasts for ever it's going to be worth less over time. If you gave it a 30 year life span, that's $1000 per year in costs right there.

 

You don't seen to have factored in any running costs. The batteries will need replacing from time to time. I expect the odd PV panel will fail from time to time.

 

Good on you for having the conviction to spend a significant amount of money on this system however I don't think your net savings are anywhere near $1200 per year.

 

If you break even I'd say you've done very well. I think that's the most I'd expect and would be very happy if I could achieve break even.

 

 

My Interest costs ARE the running costs for the sytem for the 15 year warranty timeframe. That capital I "borrowed" is set aside and instead of paying money to power company, I transfer it there. 

 

Yes, there will always be depreciation costs for any system for it's use over the period of 15 years, however if I DO NOT have this system then the money I am going to pay (2400 more per year) to the Power company is never going to come back to me.

 

So I can assume my depreciated hardware (if it's still working in the warranty period) is possibly better than paying money that I will never get back. 

 

If I get 15 years of service from the system (warranty period of the actual system) - fairly confident that it will cover my capital costs.

 

Although, I might end up selling the property in 5 years, which is when I will expect to get my capitol to be returned partially.

 

It's like having a pool / spa in your backyard to increase your value (use it or not)? in my case I use it heavily. 

 

 

 

About opportunity cost

 

I do have money aside for any opportunity cost, but I "personally" would not like to compare one to another. Each to their own have their risks and benefits.  This 30k I borrowed is on a seperate account paying itself by discounting my powerbill and possibly more by my EV use. 


frankv
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  #2486493 19-May-2020 17:42
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HarmLessSolutions: 80% of the energy consumed there is "Rejected" AKA wasted, primarily as heat I imagine.


ICE is at best about 40% efficient at converting potential energy in the fuel into useful work, and somewhat lower at cruise speeds. Of that "useful work", the majority is used in moving air out of the way. And yes, ultimately that unproductive energy is converted to heat.

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