• no residential or commercial buildings and campuses
  
  
• no transport initiatives including decarbonisation of off road vehicles, and marine vessels
  
  
• no waste minimisation
  
  
• no electricity generation
  
  
• no reducing agricultural emissions or embodied carbon
  
  
• no Research & development, and the implementation of technologies that are not commercially available

wellygary: Apparently the government is promising to only buy EVs ... again... but there is no extra funding for this ....

"We must act with urgency," she [Jacinda Ardern] told MPs, before challenging them to be on the "right side of history.

promising new cars going electric by 2025.

While I support all new public sector cars going electric by 2025, that time frame doesn't seem especially urgent.

wellygary:

 

There will be a bounce back in oil consumption Post COVID as national and international travel returns, but the trend to electrification will continue, and will continue to pull down demand.

 

Yes, probably a bounce back in demand. But the price won't bounce back, because every extra dollar on a barrel of oil will (a) push more people to buy an EV for their next car, (b) move more money into researching EV technologies (especially batteries), (c) increase the oversupply of oil, and (d) shorten the time remaining to sell the oil that's available.

Oil now is in the position that watermills were at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution -- previously a great source of wealth and power, but rapidly rendered obsolete by the new technology.

frankv:

 

wellygary:

 

There will be a bounce back in oil consumption Post COVID as national and international travel returns, but the trend to electrification will continue, and will continue to pull down demand.

 

 

Yes, probably a bounce back in demand. But the price won't bounce back, because every extra dollar on a barrel of oil will (a) push more people to buy an EV for their next car, (b) move more money into researching EV technologies (especially batteries), (c) increase the oversupply of oil, and (d) shorten the time remaining to sell the oil that's available.

 

Oil now is in the position that watermills were at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution -- previously a great source of wealth and power, but rapidly rendered obsolete by the new technology.

 

Although to be honest, moving cars from Oil to EVs is a secondary target in the global GHG race....

The biggest GHG savings are in moving Power generation from Coal to pretty much anything else,  Renewables are best, but even gas is a 50% reduction  

Scott3:

 

wellygary: Apparently the government is promising to only buy EVs ... again... but there is no extra funding for this ....

 

"We must act with urgency," she [Jacinda Ardern] told MPs, before challenging them to be on the "right side of history.

 

promising new cars going electric by 2025.

 

 

 

While I support all new public sector cars going electric by 2025, that time frame doesn't seem especially urgent.

 

 

 

5 years is pretty swift for a government department

wellygary: ...

 

Although on the flip side it would be cheaper than NZ if our EV exemption expires at the end of 2021 (7.6 cents//km)

wellygary: Apparently the government is promising to only buy EVs ... again... but there is no extra funding for this ....

But will the government be paying the RUC? 😇

wellygary:

 

frankv:

 

Yes, probably a bounce back in demand. But the price won't bounce back, because every extra dollar on a barrel of oil will (a) push more people to buy an EV for their next car, (b) move more money into researching EV technologies (especially batteries), (c) increase the oversupply of oil, and (d) shorten the time remaining to sell the oil that's available.

 

Oil now is in the position that watermills were at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution -- previously a great source of wealth and power, but rapidly rendered obsolete by the new technology.

 

 

Although to be honest, moving cars from Oil to EVs is a secondary target in the global GHG race....

 

The biggest GHG savings are in moving Power generation from Coal to pretty much anything else,  Renewables are best, but even gas is a 50% reduction  

 

True. But we are in an EV thread. ;)

But the same applies to coal. If batteries are cheap enough, then we no longer need to generate power at the time of demand. Solar and other renewables become much more practical.

Scott3:

 

wellygary: Apparently the government is promising to only buy EVs ... again... but there is no extra funding for this ....

 

"We must act with urgency," she [Jacinda Ardern] told MPs, before challenging them to be on the "right side of history.

 

promising new cars going electric by 2025.

 

While I support all new public sector cars going electric by 2025, that time frame doesn't seem especially urgent.

 

They are going to need more money,  the Public service fleet of passenger cars is about 12,500 ( excluding utes vans etc)

If you take out the Cops you are left with around 10,000, at 50K- assuming they can get discount off a 60K leaf or equivalent, that's $500 million,

So far they have talked about using the $200 million "State sector decarbonisation fund"- but that's has already committed $80 million, so there is not that much left....

There is a good spreadsheet here that shows who has cars,

https://www.procurement.govt.nz/assets/procurement-property/documents/broader-outcomes/government-fleet-emissions-dashboard.xlsx

But if they are replacing cars anyway, there is no extra cost. But if EV's cost more, they also have savings

Seems to make economic sense and environmental sense

tdgeek:

 

But if they are replacing cars anyway, there is no extra cost. But if EV's cost more, they also have savings

 

Seems to make economic sense and environmental sense

 

I'm guessing that that's the reason for 5 year timeframe. Swap over 20% of the fleet each year as part of the normal rotation. There are up-front costs, which will be paid back later by fuel savings.

tdgeek:

 

But if they are replacing cars anyway, there is no extra cost. But if EV's cost more, they also have savings

 

Seems to make economic sense and environmental sense

 

Its still a stretch for departments, ( if it was a justifiable economic choice they would have already made it)

Most of the cars will be small "run about" types - especially the health boards,  our local one has boatloads of Suzuki Swifts,

@~20K that's still a 30K/vehicle - or around, $300 million,

There's a reason the biggest EV model in NZ is a 2nd hand leaf, -

wellygary:

 

Its still a stretch for departments, ( if it was a justifiable economic choice they would have already made it)

 

Most of the cars will be small "run about" types - especially the health boards,  our local one has boatloads of Suzuki Swifts,

 

@~20K that's still a 30K/vehicle - or around, $300 million,

 

There's a reason the biggest EV model in NZ is a 2nd hand leaf, -

 

Its probably not possible to order a few thousand EV's today and get them next month. They aren't around in huge volume yet

300 Mill, yep. Deduct fuel savings over 5 years, servicing savings, you'd get an amount of that 30k back, the rest is a cost, thats ok

The 2nd hand Leaf was pretty much the only EV available for a long while

tdgeek:

 

Deduct fuel savings over 5 years, servicing savings, you'd get an amount of that 30k back,

 

... plus a better resale value. But I guess the DHBs et al will have to install charging infrastructure.

And also it means that in 5-10 years there will be thousands of NZ-new, well-maintained EVs available to Kiwis who can't afford the $30K new price (i.e. most of them).

wellygary:

Although to be honest, moving cars from Oil to EVs is a secondary target in the global GHG race....

The biggest GHG savings are in moving Power generation from Coal to pretty much anything else,  Renewables are best, but even gas is a 50% reduction