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tdgeek
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  #2644828 31-Jan-2021 19:22
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morrisk:

 

To be clear my use case for my car is not as a shopping trolley. I live in the centre of the city and walk to work, grocery shopping etc. My EV car use is mainly for regular journeys that are 550km one way. In spite of what many think an EV is perfect for this type of use. 

 

The "financial pain" was quantified by the previous poster as being a pay back of 8 years which is not out of the way for many. Agree there are others who cannot manage this. Hopefully action flowing from the Climate Commission report released today will help in this regard.

 

I am dismayed to read the sales figures for expensive ICE cars - clearly those buying these cars could afford an EV and in doing so would make some small contribution to a better future for our grandchildren.

 

 

My recent posts are based on the masses. Sure, as I stated, there are use cases where its worth it.  The 8 year payback doesnt include RUC which is double the per litre equivalent of electricity, 30c vs 30c +70C. 

 

Say you want an expensive car, say $60,000. You can buy a $60000 premium car or the $60,000 EV which relates to a bog standard $40,000 ICE. Do you wan to pay 60 for a 40 car? 

 

Then there is EV's will reduce in price, so while we are well aware of buying a new car loses a lot of value once you drive around the block, buyers will be figuring that when EV's reduce in cost, their depreciation will be massive. 

 

These are barriers. You can't pick on people for baulking at these. Its not necessarily if you can afford it, its if its worth it. If the response os, well you need to buy it and pay the "small extra amount" for climate change. Maybe every car owner can be one off taxed $20000 and this goes into a Climate Change Fund? You may think that's a silly comment, but its what new ICE buyers that are being persuaded to get an EV are being asked to do. 


 
 
 
 

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Technofreak
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  #2644904 31-Jan-2021 21:49
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frankv:
Technofreak:
I bought a new car about 18 months ago, there was no way I could afford an equivalent EV and I'm not what I'd call poor. Certainly not rich either but probably better off than a good proportion of the population.


Financially, I think I'm similar to you. But almost everyone who owns a house has the potential to borrow the extra money to buy an EV. So let's put some numbers on it....

A $20k price premium is about (ballpark, for easy maths) 10k litres of 91 @ 8L/100km = 120K Km. Electricity is about 1/4 the price of petrol, so you need to drive 120k × 4/3 = 160k km to get your $20k back. (Someone please check my math). At 20k km/year, that's an 8 year payback time.

Add in the interest on the $20k and potentially RUC, subtract expected maintenance savings if you like. Maybe consider changing the car every 3 or 4 years, and whether your secondhand EV will maintain its value relative to your ICE alternative or not.

But, all in all, it doesn't look attractive to me.

 

Actually in my case the economics are even worse.

 

The actual price difference was over $30,000 based on what I paid for the car. Over the last 12 months my average fuel price has been $1.75/litre. The car averages around 7.5L/100 k. Today I went to Auckland and back for a 7.1 average.

 

Using your method the payback distance in my case is over 300,000 km without adding in interest and RUC etc.

 

The extra money paid for an EV needs to be put into perspective. e.g. $20,000 on a $50,000 car is 40%. For me at least that price differential is significant and is a deal breaker. No matter the touted environmental benefits I cannot afford to pay that sort of increase.





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Technofreak
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  #2644908 31-Jan-2021 22:03
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morrisk:

 

The "financial pain" was quantified by the previous poster as being a pay back of 8 years which is not out of the way for many. Agree there are others who cannot manage this. Hopefully action flowing from the Climate Commission report released today will help in this regard.

 

 

That 8 years didn't take into account the cost interest nor the RUC so it's really more than 8 years.

 

I have quoted figures in another post which show the payback can be significantly longer than 8 years and that's without accouning for interest or RUC.





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Obraik
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  #2644909 31-Jan-2021 22:05
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I was looking at a BMW 3 Series but went with the Model 3 instead...so I was better off right from purchase 🙂





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  #2644972 1-Feb-2021 07:06
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Technofreak:

 

morrisk:

 

The "financial pain" was quantified by the previous poster as being a pay back of 8 years which is not out of the way for many. Agree there are others who cannot manage this. Hopefully action flowing from the Climate Commission report released today will help in this regard.

 

 

That 8 years didn't take into account the cost interest nor the RUC so it's really more than 8 years.

 

I have quoted figures in another post which show the payback can be significantly longer than 8 years and that's without accouning for interest or RUC.

 

 

Also, that example of 8 years payback was based on twice the average annual distance travelled. In NZ the average for cars is not far above 10,000km/year rather than 20,000km/year one specific driver travelled. Even using the Australian average of about 13,000km a year would lead to a much longer payback period.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2644979 1-Feb-2021 07:48
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And remember that none of these posts are not anti EV, its the reality faced by many car owners in our population.

 

 

 

Edit, added "not" lol, slightly changes my post


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  #2644982 1-Feb-2021 08:07
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Note some of the comments come from Tesla bears

Musk looks to make a fortune with his space projects, so as long as Musk owns both, he can afford to lose money on EVs.

CNN: Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars

Tesla posted its first full year of net income in 2020 -- but not because of sales to its customers.

Eleven states require automakers sell a certain percentage of zero-emissions vehicles by 2025. If they can't, the automakers have to buy regulatory credits from another automaker that meets those requirements -- such as Tesla, which exclusively sells electric cars.

It's a lucrative business for Tesla -- bringing in $3.3 billion over the course of the last five years, nearly half of that in 2020 alone. The $1.6 billion in regulatory credits it received last year far outweighed Tesla's net income of $721 million -- meaning Tesla would have otherwise posted a net loss in 2020.



gzt

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  #2645004 1-Feb-2021 09:19
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This price argument will be history before too long. Battery prices have dropped and are dropping.

Companies like Volkswagen going 100% EV will make a huge difference. VW is the largest automaker in the world apparently. The entire supply chain will be changing to provide components pulling through other huge companies like Bosch with R&D etc. A company that size going EV with its supply chain will soon mean it's uneconomic for the smaller players to build anything except EV.

A similar thing will happen worldwide as Japan moves to EV only automaking.

frankv
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  #2645018 1-Feb-2021 09:42
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tdgeek:

 

Commercial polluters are substantial. Taxi's, daily driven commercial vehicles, reps cars.

 

 

Since you specifically mention taxis, I'll comment that around Palmerston North it seems that the Prius is ubiquitous in the taxi fleet. Although they're not as clean as pure EVs, they're a lot cleaner than your average ICE, and obviously cheaper to run. When taxis are BEVs, I'll be buying one too.

 

 


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  #2645023 1-Feb-2021 09:47
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tdgeek:

 

My recent posts are based on the masses. Sure, as I stated, there are use cases where its worth it.  The 8 year payback doesnt include RUC which is double the per litre equivalent of electricity, 30c vs 30c +70C. 

 

Say you want an expensive car, say $60,000. You can buy a $60000 premium car or the $60,000 EV which relates to a bog standard $40,000 ICE. Do you wan to pay 60 for a 40 car? 

 

 

To be fair, a $60K ICE car is actually an $80K car over 8 years, whereas a $60K EV is a $65K car over 8 years. (Both figures +/- maintenance, RUC, etc).

 

 


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  #2645024 1-Feb-2021 09:53
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Hammerer:

 

Also, that example of 8 years payback was based on twice the average annual distance travelled. In NZ the average for cars is not far above 10,000km/year rather than 20,000km/year one specific driver travelled. Even using the Australian average of about 13,000km a year would lead to a much longer payback period.

 

 

Sorry, you're right. Without thinking, I used my own yearly mileage rather than the average. But I was only going for ballpark, e.g. assumed petrol at $2/L, equal maintenance costs, etc.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2645027 1-Feb-2021 09:57
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frankv:

 

tdgeek:

 

My recent posts are based on the masses. Sure, as I stated, there are use cases where its worth it.  The 8 year payback doesnt include RUC which is double the per litre equivalent of electricity, 30c vs 30c +70C. 

 

Say you want an expensive car, say $60,000. You can buy a $60000 premium car or the $60,000 EV which relates to a bog standard $40,000 ICE. Do you wan to pay 60 for a 40 car? 

 

 

To be fair, a $60K ICE car is actually an $80K car over 8 years, whereas a $60K EV is a $65K car over 8 years. (Both figures +/- maintenance, RUC, etc).

 

 

 

 

How much is a $40k ICE car over the 8 years, given that its about the same spec as the 60k EV


frankv
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  #2645127 1-Feb-2021 10:34
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tdgeek:

 

frankv:

 

To be fair, a $60K ICE car is actually an $80K car over 8 years, whereas a $60K EV is a $65K car over 8 years. (Both figures +/- maintenance, RUC, etc).

 

 

How much is a $40k ICE car over the 8 years, given that its about the same spec as the 60k EV

 

 

$60K


tdgeek
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  #2645128 1-Feb-2021 10:41
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frankv:

 

$60K

 

 

Tks  about the same then


Hammerer
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  #2645203 1-Feb-2021 12:34
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frankv:

 

Hammerer:

 

Also, that example of 8 years payback was based on twice the average annual distance travelled. In NZ the average for cars is not far above 10,000km/year rather than 20,000km/year one specific driver travelled. Even using the Australian average of about 13,000km a year would lead to a much longer payback period.

 

 

Sorry, you're right. Without thinking, I used my own yearly mileage rather than the average. But I was only going for ballpark, e.g. assumed petrol at $2/L, equal maintenance costs, etc.

 

 

There's no need for you to apologise because you specified it was for 20,000km. That assumption made for a faster payback and a more attractive return but even at that level the EV was not more attractive for you and probably wouldn't be for anyone without money to burn.

 

 


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