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Obraik
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  #2645710 2-Feb-2021 11:05
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maoriboy:

 

$800,000 sounds about right for a new top of the range farm machinery (not sure about a tractor though?) and with no alternatives, will continue to be run to be run on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. Farmers depend on these machines for the income and need reliable machines that can work - sometimes - 18 hour plus days. Would be hard to get an electric alternative for that. Perhaps fuel cell tech would be more suitable for agri/hort use?

 

 

I don't think it will be until the 2030's that we start to see any real movement with the likes of tractors and even then, it's pretty normal for farmers to have tractors that are decades old still in service. However, John Deere is already developing electric tractors so we will probably start seeing some options in the next few years. I don't think we're likely to see hydrogen make any inroads for the likes of tractors, markets for hydrogen keep dropping the tech.





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jonathan18
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  #2645714 2-Feb-2021 11:15
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tdgeek:

 

GV27:

 

Correct, hence why a $20K battery replacement is currently a non-starter.

 

I'd still happily drive a 2011 Leaf with an Android Auto headunit and a 200km range tbh - I'd be fine with importing one myself provided I had some assurance I wouldn't end up with a lawn ornament in a couple of years time with no way to make it function like a car. 

 

 

I thought they had way less range that 200km? Especially a 2011?

 

20k is ridiculous. You can probably buy a brand new ICE engine and transmission for that. Plus with an ICE you will never get to that point where you consider replacement from normal use

 

 

I kinda agree with the argument there’ll probably always be a market for any EV, no matter how low the range has gone. In reality, a Leaf that can only manage 30km on a charge will probably be adequate for probably hundreds of thousands of NZ drivers as a replacement for their ICE second car doing the daily school/work run, for example. So, yeah, this will require those who do need a bigger range to sell and buy a new car at some cost, but it’s not like their old car is destined for the scrap heap.


wellygary
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  #2645718 2-Feb-2021 11:30
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SaltyNZ:

 

maoriboy:

 

Perhaps fuel cell tech would be more suitable for agri/hort use?

 

 

That would be my guess yes. Or possibly biodiesel rather than fossil fuel.

 

 

I think the Biofuel/biofuel blends will be used a bridge for some time until electrification comes to large heavy vehicles,




frankv
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  #2645723 2-Feb-2021 12:09
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SaltyNZ:

 

But if you look at it from a different point of view: if 90% of the vehicles on the road have already gone electric, that diesel is going to get increasingly expensive as the economies of scale collapse. In other words, at some point in the near future - within 20 years for sure, probably less - there will come a point where all of a sudden everything else goes away because nobody can afford it because nobody is making fuel for it anymore.

 

 

I agree with the general tenor of your post, but I think diesel will be around a lot longer. That's primarily because it is quite similar to Jet A-1 (I know someone who ran a diesel truck on Jet A-1 and waste cooking oil), and I think there will be demand for that for over 20 years. Or maybe diesel tractor and truck engines will be re-optimised for Jet A-1?

 

I suspect that, whilst economies of scale will eventually collapse and lead to more expensive petrol, in the shorter term prices will decrease. Infrastructure that is already built will be able to be used to continue producing, there won't be any expensive exploration to fund, the more expensive sources of oil will be phased out first, and there will be excess supply over demand. During that time, petrol's retail price will vary so that ICE TCO will approximately equal EV TCO. So, as EV prices decrease, petrol prices will decrease. Which is all bad news for OPEC... crude oil prices will drop to whatever the cost of extraction is. No more 747 private jets for oil sheikhs!

 

 


frankv
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  #2645727 2-Feb-2021 12:14
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wellygary:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

That would be my guess yes. Or possibly biodiesel rather than fossil fuel.

 

 

I think the Biofuel/biofuel blends will be used a bridge for some time until electrification comes to large heavy vehicles,

 

 

As per my previous post, biofuel will be so expensive compared to electricity, and therefore compared to fossil fuel diesel, that it won't be able to compete.

 

 


afe66
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  #2645729 2-Feb-2021 12:17
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Just watched a review of VW id4.

https://youtu.be/aW7crVGm-s4

It has a tow bar and reversing trailer camera !
Heads up display looks interesting. 500l+ boot.

Probably leading pack for me.
Will need to see pricing as always.



Obraik
2007 posts

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  #2645736 2-Feb-2021 12:42
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The Model 3 @linuxluver once owned and was written off due to a meth driver on a one lane bridge has come back to life 😮





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tdgeek
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  #2645737 2-Feb-2021 12:43
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afe66: Just watched a review of VW id4.

https://youtu.be/aW7crVGm-s4

It has a tow bar and reversing trailer camera !
Heads up display looks interesting. 500l+ boot.

Probably leading pack for me.
Will need to see pricing as always.


 

STG 45,000 in the UK, around that


kingdragonfly
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  #2645738 2-Feb-2021 12:45
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maoriboy:

$800,000 sounds about right for a new top of the range farm machinery (not sure about a tractor though?) and with no alternatives, will continue to be run to be run on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. Farmers depend on these machines for the income and need reliable machines that can work - sometimes - 18 hour plus days. Would be hard to get an electric alternative for that. Perhaps fuel cell tech would be more suitable for agri/hort use?



Issues for farmers are torque, maintenance, longevity, equipment sitting unused for extended periods (oil / fuel degradation), and fuel theft.

Obviously an electric equivalent is going to fare better than an ICE vehicle.

maoriboy
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  #2645758 2-Feb-2021 13:18
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kingdragonfly:

Issues for farmers are torque, maintenance, longevity, equipment sitting unused for extended periods (oil / fuel degradation), and fuel theft.

Obviously an electric equivalent is going to fare better than an ICE vehicle.

 

I'd be interested to see how long it would take to charge a tractor to be able to run for 12 hours plus and even what battery capacity is needed for that to be realistic. The ol "make hay while the sun shines" adage definitely applies to farmers, and any downtime eats into potential profits. At least with ICE vehicles they can refill quickly and be back on the job with minimal downtime. Until alternative fuel options can match this I think they will struggle to catch on with farmers

 

 






GV27
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  #2645759 2-Feb-2021 13:18
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jonathan18:

 

I kinda agree with the argument there’ll probably always be a market for any EV, no matter how low the range has gone. In reality, a Leaf that can only manage 30km on a charge will probably be adequate for probably hundreds of thousands of NZ drivers as a replacement for their ICE second car doing the daily school/work run, for example. So, yeah, this will require those who do need a bigger range to sell and buy a new car at some cost, but it’s not like their old car is destined for the scrap heap.

 

 

But would you swap a depreciated, running ICE car that can get you 500km on a tank to one that can do 30km on a charge? Bearing in mind you are still paying costs like insurance etc.


Dinga96
120 posts

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  #2645760 2-Feb-2021 13:20
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Obraik:

 

The Model 3 @linuxluver once owned and was written off due to a meth driver on a one lane bridge has come back to life 😮

 

 

The photos look like its like new again.I wonder if whoever buys this car off the current owner will be told about its history.


Obraik
2007 posts

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  #2645761 2-Feb-2021 13:24
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maoriboy:

 

I'd be interested to see how long it would take to charge a tractor to be able to run for 12 hours plus and even what battery capacity is needed for that to be realistic. The ol "make hay while the sun shines" adage definitely applies to farmers, and any downtime eats into potential profits. At least with ICE vehicles they can refill quickly and be back on the job with minimal downtime. Until alternative fuel options can match this I think they will struggle to catch on with farmers

 

 

How long it takes depends on the size and the technology. Solid state batteries may be the future for the likes of tractors as they have higher capacities per weight and can charge much quicker, however there's no commercial offering with solid state batteries yet - Toyota and Mercedes both say they have products coming soon with them tho.





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Linuxluver

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  #2645762 2-Feb-2021 13:31
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Obraik:

The Model 3 @linuxluver once owned and was written off due to a meth driver on a one lane bridge has come back to life 😮



I'm really glad it's been repaired. It's an awesome car.




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Linuxluver

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  #2645806 2-Feb-2021 13:34
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Dinga96:

Obraik:


The Model 3 @linuxluver once owned and was written off due to a meth driver on a one lane bridge has come back to life 😮



The photos look like its like new again.I wonder if whoever buys this car off the current owner will be told about its history.



Nothing structural. It was a sideswipe on the left and bumps on the right. Chassis and battery all ok. Needed new rear axle / wheels. But they are designed to come away cleanly in a crash, so not a major, apparently.




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