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MarkH67
401 posts

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  #1833166 29-Jul-2017 07:20
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Linuxluver:

 

"Teslanomics" says real-world data on Tesla EV batteries from users suggests they'll last "forever" or 23 years....whichever comes first, I guess. :-)

 

 GZ can't link to this.....so here is the link. https://youtu.be/Gb_i4ihsJ1w

 

 

I'm confident that even 10 years from now the cost of a new battery will be much less than what it is today - and there will be the option of getting higher capacity still for less money than what today's battery costs.

 

If you compare the battery to a tank of petrol - the petrol can be gone in less than a day and you will need to buy more.  Sure the petrol doesn't cost as much as EV batteries, but you have to keep replacing it over and over and over.  I'm spending a couple of thousand dollars every year on petrol.

 

If I bought a 2nd hand Leaf for $15k and could make my 70km return trip commute on one battery charge every day for over 10 years then I would have saved more than the purchase price of the car in fuel costs. 70/135 = 52% so I guess I'm thinking I would be OK until the battery drops below 60% of the original battery capacity which should take quite a while.  I think that the economics of running an EV for your daily commuter can look quite good for a lot of people, even more so for city commuters where the idling engine wastes a lot of petrol.


surfisup1000
4875 posts

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  #1833172 29-Jul-2017 07:59
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ubergeeknz:

 

 

“... a reflection of the work undertaken by the Government and private sector ...

 

 

I would argue the Government have done very little to push uptake, except perhaps the RUC exemption, and small registration reduction, which does help with running costs.  More has probably been done in the private sector to promote EV, driven largely by enthusiasts and a few keen car dealers.

 

Rebates on new EV purchases would go a long way towards promoting EV uptake.

 

There's also work to do around the way FBT works in favour of large vehicles (utes and vans) even where there's no business justification.

 

 

Yep, typical politician saying they're doing a lot but actually doing very little. 

 

The RUC exemption is more laziness than anything else. As soon as the EV fleet becomes significantly larger the govt will slap on RUC before lunchtime. 

 

 


 
 
 
 


surfisup1000
4875 posts

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  #1833173 29-Jul-2017 08:03
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MarkH67:

 

If you compare the battery to a tank of petrol - the petrol can be gone in less than a day and you will need to buy more.  Sure the petrol doesn't cost as much as EV batteries, but you have to keep replacing it over and over and over.  I'm spending a couple of thousand dollars every year on petrol.

 

 

The battery is more like the petrol tank in your analogy. 

 

The difference is that you refuel an EV battery with electrons , you refuel an ICE with petrol .   

 

 


RUKI
1151 posts

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  #1833271 29-Jul-2017 10:11
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MarkH67:

 

...... I'm confident that even 10 years from now the cost of a new battery will be much less than what it is today .....

 

 

No. it will not. Especially for the older model cars. This opinion is based on the situation with traction batteries for hybrids.

 

5 years ago you could buy them cheap from wreckers. Not any more - with growing number of hybrids (15000 in NZ) those are now in huge demand, regardless of condition. Just had a phone call to one of the biggest wreckers re: Toyota Hybrid Traction Batteries. They said all next intakes of wrecks are pre-sold already. Even untested with unknown condition. People seems to feel lucky just if they could get one....

 

4000 EV registered and NO second hand batteries available in NZ. Li is even worth in a sense that growing number of Solar System Owners are hunting for them as well regardless condition. I do not expect EV batteries becoming cheaper even if the cost of manufacture will be lower.

 

Importation from Japanese wrecks - I am talking from time to time with Importers - it is currently not economical either. EVs are cool and I anticipate the number will grow exponentially. Demand for Batteries will grow as well.





Toyota / Lexus Hybrid and EV Battery Expert Battery Test & Repair 

 

 


MarkH67
401 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1833306 29-Jul-2017 11:15
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RUKI:

 

 

 

No. it will not. Especially for the older model cars. This opinion is based on the situation with traction batteries for hybrids.

 

5 years ago you could buy them cheap from wreckers. Not any more - with growing number of hybrids (15000 in NZ) those are now in huge demand, regardless of condition. Just had a phone call to one of the biggest wreckers re: Toyota Hybrid Traction Batteries. They said all next intakes of wrecks are pre-sold already. Even untested with unknown condition. People seems to feel lucky just if they could get one....

 

4000 EV registered and NO second hand batteries available in NZ. Li is even worth in a sense that growing number of Solar System Owners are hunting for them as well regardless condition. I do not expect EV batteries becoming cheaper even if the cost of manufacture will be lower.

 

Importation from Japanese wrecks - I am talking from time to time with Importers - it is currently not economical either. EVs are cool and I anticipate the number will grow exponentially. Demand for Batteries will grow as well.

 

 

I'll clarify:

 

I'm confident that the price of new batteries will become cheaper.  In fact it is already happening, over the past few years the cost of Li-Ion batteries has fallen considerably.

 

https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-cost-dropped-80-6-years-227kwh-tesla-190kwh/

 

2010 - battery packs cost ~US$1,000 per kWh.

 

2016 - battery packs cost ~US$227 per kWh.

 

That is a considerable drop in cost, by 2030 there is every reason to believe that battery packs could be cheaper than US$100 per kWh.

 

So today I may be burning fossil fuels, but that doesn't mean that I'll still be burning fossil fuels in 2030.  Maybe I'll still have a fossil fuel burning motorcycle in the garage in 2030 but I'm pretty sure my daily runner will be powered by electrons stored in a battery pack.


Linuxluver

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  #1833333 29-Jul-2017 12:22
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MarkH67:

 

Linuxluver:

 

"Teslanomics" says real-world data on Tesla EV batteries from users suggests they'll last "forever" or 23 years....whichever comes first, I guess. :-)

 

 GZ can't link to this.....so here is the link. https://youtu.be/Gb_i4ihsJ1w

 

 

I'm confident that even 10 years from now the cost of a new battery will be much less than what it is today - and there will be the option of getting higher capacity still for less money than what today's battery costs.

 

If you compare the battery to a tank of petrol - the petrol can be gone in less than a day and you will need to buy more.  Sure the petrol doesn't cost as much as EV batteries, but you have to keep replacing it over and over and over.  I'm spending a couple of thousand dollars every year on petrol.

 

If I bought a 2nd hand Leaf for $15k and could make my 70km return trip commute on one battery charge every day for over 10 years then I would have saved more than the purchase price of the car in fuel costs. 70/135 = 52% so I guess I'm thinking I would be OK until the battery drops below 60% of the original battery capacity which should take quite a while.  I think that the economics of running an EV for your daily commuter can look quite good for a lot of people, even more so for city commuters where the idling engine wastes a lot of petrol.

 



The economics apply to all driving - long or short range. It's just that on longer trips you typically stop about every 90 mins (for 15-20 mins) to top up the battery. I personally find that mode of travelling suits me perfectly.....and I arrive a lot less tired than the old days when I used to think driving non-stop was a good idea. It never was a good idea. But you don't know these things until you know them.

The servicing cost over time is also a lot less......which isn't obvious, but very real. You take it in for a WoF....and if the tyres are OK and the lights all work and the brakes work (should do, you barely use them)....you're done.  





_____________________________________________________________________
If you order a Tesla, click my referral code below to order your car and get free stuff. 

 

My Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/steve52356


Linuxluver

5615 posts

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  #1833339 29-Jul-2017 12:40
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Photos and video of a Tesla Model 3 being snow tested at the "Southern Proving Grounds" in New Zealand yesterday. There are two in the country, apparently, being put through their paces in winter conditions. 

Tesla Model 3 being snow tested in NZ yesterday.  





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If you order a Tesla, click my referral code below to order your car and get free stuff. 

 

My Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/steve52356


 
 
 
 


MarkH67
401 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1833342 29-Jul-2017 12:55
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Linuxluver:

 

The economics apply to all driving - long or short range.

 

 

For me the long drives might add up each year to ~4 thousand kms of driving and the daily commute of 70km return would add up to around 16 thousand kms of driving.  If I used my motorcycle for long trips around NZ and drove a 2nd hand Leaf to work and back then I'd save quite a lot of money on fuel.  Basically my commuting is four times the distance of my long trips so the economics are a bit different. 

 

Someone commuting in Auckland is spending a lot of time stuck in traffic - the cost savings by using an EV would be a bit higher per km driven. Just observe the cars at a set of traffic lights - all those cars with idling engines are burning fossil fuels to sit motionless which is energy used for no work done, horribly inefficient.

 

Short range driving is also proportionately worse for the fossil fuel burning cars because they get worse fuel economy while the engine is cold.  Electric motors are great in that situation.  This is one huge plus for driving a plug-in hybrid which can run on pure electric power on those short trips where the petrol engine would be at its worse for efficiency.

 

Having said all of that: obviously EVs are still MUCH cheaper to run over any distance.

 

My thoughts and feelings about cars has changed a lot over the last few years.  I used to watch Top Gear and think about how cool it would be to own some of the really nice super cars, now I have no interest in ever buying a car that needs fossil fuel to run.  I now think of cars being in one of two categories - old fashion cars and modern cars.  Old fashion cars are any that burn fossil fuels. Modern cars have batteries that you charge to propel that car.

 

My current ideal is two vehicles: 1. Honda CRF 1000 Africa Twin - Adventure touring motorcycle that would be great for exploring NZ + 2. An electric car that would be perfect for getting me to work and back and for short trips, this could be charged up in my garage each night and never need to stop for gas.  I am seriously thinking about saving up so that I can sell both my current motorcycles and buying an Africa Twin, then saving up and buying an electric car.  If it ends up being two or three years before I get an electric car then that would mean I would have many more choices, there are going to be a LOT more EVs available over the next three years.


Linuxluver

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  #1833391 29-Jul-2017 14:23
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MarkH67:

 

Linuxluver:

 

The economics apply to all driving - long or short range.

 

 

For me the long drives might add up each year to ~4 thousand kms of driving and the daily commute of 70km return would add up to around 16 thousand kms of driving.  If I used my motorcycle for long trips around NZ and drove a 2nd hand Leaf to work and back then I'd save quite a lot of money on fuel.  Basically my commuting is four times the distance of my long trips so the economics are a bit different. 

 

Someone commuting in Auckland is spending a lot of time stuck in traffic - the cost savings by using an EV would be a bit higher per km driven. Just observe the cars at a set of traffic lights - all those cars with idling engines are burning fossil fuels to sit motionless which is energy used for no work done, horribly inefficient.

 

Short range driving is also proportionately worse for the fossil fuel burning cars because they get worse fuel economy while the engine is cold.  Electric motors are great in that situation.  This is one huge plus for driving a plug-in hybrid which can run on pure electric power on those short trips where the petrol engine would be at its worse for efficiency.

 

Having said all of that: obviously EVs are still MUCH cheaper to run over any distance.

 

My thoughts and feelings about cars has changed a lot over the last few years.  I used to watch Top Gear and think about how cool it would be to own some of the really nice super cars, now I have no interest in ever buying a car that needs fossil fuel to run.  I now think of cars being in one of two categories - old fashion cars and modern cars.  Old fashion cars are any that burn fossil fuels. Modern cars have batteries that you charge to propel that car.

 

My current ideal is two vehicles: 1. Honda CRF 1000 Africa Twin - Adventure touring motorcycle that would be great for exploring NZ + 2. An electric car that would be perfect for getting me to work and back and for short trips, this could be charged up in my garage each night and never need to stop for gas.  I am seriously thinking about saving up so that I can sell both my current motorcycles and buying an Africa Twin, then saving up and buying an electric car.  If it ends up being two or three years before I get an electric car then that would mean I would have many more choices, there are going to be a LOT more EVs available over the next three years.

 



Anything that reduces the use of fossil fuels is great. 

I saw an electric motor bike in Porirua a few months ago. It was really fast....and virtually no noise. Like a silent movie of a motorbike. :) 

There are some electric bikes around.....but they cost a fair bit - though a lot cheaper than a car. Zero S Electric Motorcycle





_____________________________________________________________________
If you order a Tesla, click my referral code below to order your car and get free stuff. 

 

My Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/steve52356


RUKI
1151 posts

Uber Geek


  #1833430 29-Jul-2017 16:43
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MarkH67:

 

 

 

I'll clarify: ......I'm confident .....

 

2016 - battery packs cost ~US$227 per kWh.

 

....... by 2030 there is every reason to believe that battery packs could be cheaper than US$100 per kWh. .....

 

 

You do not have to clarify, I know exactly what you are talking about..... 30kWh x 100USD/0.75 (NZD/USD) = $4000NZD.

 

My point is as follows: if you buy 30kWh Leaf today (from Japan or UK), in 13 years your chances of sourcing exactly the same 30kWh battery pack (not used, but new with tested capacity of 30kWh and made by reputable manufacturer (e.g. NEC, LG, etc and not a knock-off from PRC) for <$4000 NZD are close to ZERO. 

 

 





Toyota / Lexus Hybrid and EV Battery Expert Battery Test & Repair 

 

 


MarkH67
401 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1833452 29-Jul-2017 17:52
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RUKI:

 

You do not have to clarify, I know exactly what you are talking about..... 30kWh x 100USD/0.75 (NZD/USD) = $4000NZD.

 

My point is as follows: if you buy 30kWh Leaf today (from Japan or UK), in 13 years your chances of sourcing exactly the same 30kWh battery pack (not used, but new with tested capacity of 30kWh and made by reputable manufacturer (e.g. NEC, LG, etc and not a knock-off from PRC) for <$4000 NZD are close to ZERO. 

 

 

Well, I can't claim to know the future, especially with a rapidly developing technology.  It might be that you wont even be able to buy a 30kWh battery pack for a Leaf, maybe you will be able to buy a 48kWh battery for <$6,000 NZD in 2030 or maybe it will be a 60kWh battery and maybe it will cost <$5,000 NZD.  I wouldn't rule out a 60kWh battery for under $4k NZD though.

 

Considering that we are talking about 13 years in the future I can't take anyone seriously that claims to be certain about the pricing.  I can google pricing of Leaf batteries and see that they aren't all that expensive and with pricing trends I find it easy to believe that they could halve in price over the next 13 years.  There are currently multiple gigafactories being built to manufacture Li-Ion cells for EVs and over the next 13 years there are bound to be many more such factories built.  There is also the possibility of a new chemistry/technology that could become the standard that will significantly lower the cost and/or raise the capacity and performance.

 

Can anyone really be sure that we wont have solid state batteries in use by 2030 that might still have >95% of their capacity after 25 years of use?

 

I don't even know much about the metal-air batteries.  I know they are supposed to have a MUCH higher energy storage per kg but I'm not sure about energy storage for the size of them. 

 

Since I doubt that we are currently at the pinnacle of battery technology I have to assume that improvements will be made.  With the expected increase in EVs I am sure there will be a lot of pressure to improve batteries over the next few decades.


MarkH67
401 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1833453 29-Jul-2017 17:57
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Linuxluver:

 

I saw an electric motor bike in Porirua a few months ago. It was really fast....and virtually no noise. Like a silent movie of a motorbike. :) 

There are some electric bikes around.....but they cost a fair bit - though a lot cheaper than a car. Zero S Electric Motorcycle

 

 

I have definitely thought about a Zero Motorcycles DSR 13kWh bike - nice bike but not enough range to be useful enough to spend what it costs to buy one.

 

I can buy a second hand Leaf for half the cost of a new Zero and get as much or more range from it.

 

Motorcycles will be difficult to make as practical EVs due to needing to keep the size and weight within reason.  If better battery technology can make big improvements allowing a bike with over 300km range and good performance possible - I'd certainly entertain the idea of changing to a motorcycle EV.


Linuxluver

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  #1833592 29-Jul-2017 23:07
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RUKI:

 

MarkH67:

 

 

 

I'll clarify: ......I'm confident .....

 

2016 - battery packs cost ~US$227 per kWh.

 

....... by 2030 there is every reason to believe that battery packs could be cheaper than US$100 per kWh. .....

 

 

You do not have to clarify, I know exactly what you are talking about..... 30kWh x 100USD/0.75 (NZD/USD) = $4000NZD.

 

My point is as follows: if you buy 30kWh Leaf today (from Japan or UK), in 13 years your chances of sourcing exactly the same 30kWh battery pack (not used, but new with tested capacity of 30kWh and made by reputable manufacturer (e.g. NEC, LG, etc and not a knock-off from PRC) for <$4000 NZD are close to ZERO. 

 



By then maybe there will be a local industry of doing conversions to solid state batteries so the old LEAF will have 100kWh and a 600km range for $50/kWh. Look at smart phone prices in just 9 years.......The phone you paid $1000+ for in 2008 is now the $50 phone at Countdown. 





_____________________________________________________________________
If you order a Tesla, click my referral code below to order your car and get free stuff. 

 

My Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/steve52356


Aredwood
3885 posts

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  #1833609 30-Jul-2017 01:14
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I don't know if anyone has done this for Li-ion batteries. But analyse the amounts of Lithium, graphite, copper, carbon etc (all raw materials) that are present in say 1KW/Hr worth of Li-ion batteries. And compare the value of those raw materials with the value of the actual batteries. The difference (the amount of value added) is the absolute max that battery prices are able to drop by. And that is assuming that the cost of running a gigafactory is free.

 

My understanding is that someone did the above analysis for solar panels. And the conclusion was that solar panels can't go down in price by much more.

 

Also the government will probably put alot of restrictions in the way of a local EV conversion or modifying industry appearing. As the first to do so will probably be boy racers, who are already good at both pushing the current rules or just blatantly breaking them. First things to modify will probably be bypassing battery overcurrent protections, and reprogramming motor controllers. To increase the power output of the traction motors. There will inevitability be a few modified EVs catching on fire, due to battery packs going exothermic.






MarkH67
401 posts

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  #1833612 30-Jul-2017 07:19
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Linuxluver:

 

By then maybe there will be a local industry of doing conversions to solid state batteries so the old LEAF will have 100kWh and a 600km range for $50/kWh. Look at smart phone prices in just 9 years.......The phone you paid $1000+ for in 2008 is now the $50 phone at Countdown. 

 

 

That would have to be on the more optimistic end of the scale, but after 13 years more progress I wouldn't be certain that it couldn't happen.  I would love to see solid state batteries succeed - they would be more efficient in terms of resources just from the longer lifespan and they are also inherently more safe without the volatile liquid electrolyte.  Imagine buying an electric car with a battery that will never need to be replaced because it could last the lifetime of the car and after that be removed and used in another car or to store power for a house's solar generation.


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