EV (electric vehicle) News & Discussion

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#3226075 3-May-2024 14:14

jarledb:

I mean, RAV4 has been for sale for 30 years. So following your logic shouldn't be selling at all, or did I misunderstand you?

Not to mention that spring chicken, the Toyota Corolla.

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#3226077 3-May-2024 14:21

Hyundai zero interest zero deposit guaranteed future value on ionic 5 and 6

https://www.hyundai.co.nz/deals/ev-assured-future-value

As is common for car dealers contact is required to get the full terms of the offer. I'm interested to know although I prefer the other model.

jarledb

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#3226080 3-May-2024 14:26

SaltyNZ:

Not to mention that spring chicken, the Toyota Corolla.

Almost 60 years. The mind boggles how Toyota has survived.

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#3226081 3-May-2024 14:27

The Ioniq 6, now with 'optimized spatiality'...found my new word for the day.

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wellygary

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#3226084 3-May-2024 14:31

gzt: Hyundai zero interest zero deposit guaranteed future value on ionic 5 and 6

https://www.hyundai.co.nz/deals/ev-assured-future-value

As is common for car dealers contact is required to get the full terms of the offer. I'm interested to know although I prefer the other model.

I'm pretty sure the House wins in all cases.

I do wish car companies would just put up the details and let people decided for themselves, rather then trying to hide everything behind a "register"..

It would be really interesting to see what kind of depreciation rates they slug you with based on the final price...
I suspect it's nasty

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#3226085 3-May-2024 14:32

gzt: Hyundai zero interest zero deposit guaranteed future value on ionic 5 and 6

https://www.hyundai.co.nz/deals/ev-assured-future-value

As is common for car dealers contact is required to get the full terms of the offer. I'm interested to know although I prefer the other model.

It's a guarantee on future trade in price if you purchase now on lease terms and trade in on another Hyundai - not relevant if you buy for cash, want to trade elsewhere, or sell for cash.

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#3226091 3-May-2024 14:43

jarledb:

I mean, RAV4 has been for sale for 30 years. So following your logic shouldn't be selling at all, or did I misunderstand you?

The Rav4 brand has been around for 30 years, but the current fifth generation model was introduced in 2019, with market expectation for an all new sixth generation model next year.

Contrast with the first generation Model 3 - launched 7 years ago, recently refreshed, but no sign of second generation on horizon. Nor is any new Tesla on horizon. This is not a sustainable strategy in the new era of Chinese innovation.

Scott3

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#3226105 3-May-2024 15:30

Dingbatt:

My local Ford dealer just sent me an email with “Weekend Sale Specials”. Of interest to this thread is the Mach-E priced at

AWD $87.6K

GT $97.8K

which is a price drop of $22.4K and $27.2K respectively (on original pricing - discounts of $8K more recently). On top of that a whopping 1000km of RUCs ($76) and 5 year service plan.

Ford must be hurting. The Mach-E rwd was competitively priced for rebate times, but the AWD and GT were always overpriced compared to the competition. This will hurt Mach-E owners as the starting point for depreciation is $20K+ lower.

Even at those discount's they aren't especially competitive.

Model Y Performance is $89,124 drive away, Also Quotes the same 3.7s 0-100 time as the Mach-E GT (but I think tesla subtracts a roll out).

And you can get a 2024 ex demo (must have been a showroom car with just 25km on the odometer) EV6 GT for $86k (3.5s 0-100 time & 800v fast charging).

The FOMO is gone, and rapid deflation of new EV price's has been replaced with fear of overpaying.

Amazing what has happened in the auto industry (globally) over the last few years.

Slashed production on pandemic recession fears (and microchip shortages) -> met with high demand due to low interest rates & cashed up people spending their travel budgets on stuff like car upgrades instead -> long waitlists for popular models, up to a year for a Rav4 hybrid (especially EV's driven by new models coming to market, and oil price surge related to the invasion of Ukraine) -> prices cranking up leading to urgency in purchases -> automakers ramping up production -> Emergence from pandemic meaning travel is back on the table, and many cashed up people already have new cars - > high interest rates & general high inflation, and recession mean less people are spending on new cars.

Net result of the above is that wait lists are largely gone, and automakers need to be more competitive to move stock. Even on something like a hilux (a big winner from the clean car discount being removed), we have seen toyota cut the price on some models.

EV's in NZ are quite a special set of circumstances:

Global supply glut, as production of longer range EV's exceeded sales by a long way, largely due to the factors above.
We were at about 15% market share last year. This puts us right at the Chasm in the adoption curve. The innovators are probably onto their second or third EV & the early EV adaptors have already purchased one, but we have yet to cross the Chasm into the early majority.
Removal of clean car discount - concurrent with the above
Retention of the clean car standard which enables car importers to offset the emissions of other vehicle's with EV's, Essentially functioning as a cross subsidy in favor of EV's worth a few thousand, but not transparent like the clean car discount was, so it just encourages dealers to sell a little cheaper than they otherwise would.
RUC's at 2.4x what a yaris hybrid pays. Not a big deal for the performance stuff at the top, but pritty killer for the value of old leaf's. A 2014 leaf like mine has gone from being worth similar to a toyota aqua hybrid, to roughly half in the space of a year.

Through the midst of the pandemic, popular models of cars (model 3, Rav4 hybrid, Suzuki Jiminy, Toyota Landcruiser 70) had near zero depreciation (as some people were willing to pay new car prices for a used car to avoid a long waitlist). Made it logical for buyer's of popular models to basically place a new order times such that they can take delivery in around a year after their initial delivery. Sell off the old car for similar money as the new car cost, and take advantage of brand new consumables (tires, wipers etc), an extra year of warranty, whatever upgrades have been made to the car etc.

Current environment is the opposite. Anybody who buys a EV now must be ready to take a decent depreciation hit (really this is just a return to normal, EV tech is moving forward quick, so higher depreciation than ICE should be expected). Combine this with prices trending down (and new attractively priced models like the Kia EV5 expected to arrive soon), and there is not really a hurry for anybody to act.

Timing of dropping the Clean Car Discount and addition of RUC's relative to the other market factors is really not ideal, and has accentuated the roller coaster that new car importers must be going through. The likes of VW is clearing it's Id.4's at firesale prices and going to no longer import them once they are gone. So the choice available for NZ EV buyers is likely to decline.

jarledb

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#3226125 3-May-2024 16:03

dafman:

Contrast with the first generation Model 3 - launched 7 years ago, recently refreshed, but no sign of second generation on horizon. Nor is any new Tesla on horizon. This is not a sustainable strategy in the new era of Chinese innovation.

The thing is, Tesla actually update their models continuously, even if there is no major design refresh. The Model 3 that was sold before the Highland model was recently introduced, was different from the Model 3 that was introduced 7 years ago, even if it looked more or less the same. (They did do minor design changes to the Model 3 before the recent refresh).

The design changes on cars like the VW Golf, RAV4 etc. have mostly not been huge. And I would argue that most car manufactures update their cars a lot less frequently than Tesla. That is, if we look at changes made to the cars over time, and not just cosmetic design updates.

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#3226127 3-May-2024 16:10

dafman:

Contrast with the first generation Model 3 - launched 7 years ago, recently refreshed, but no sign of second generation on horizon. Nor is any new Tesla on horizon. This is not a sustainable strategy in the new era of Chinese innovation.

Why is the refreshed Model 3 not considered a second generation by yourself? There's a lot different about it both in aesthetics and under the hood as well.

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3226130 3-May-2024 16:23

Obraik:

dafman:

Contrast with the first generation Model 3 - launched 7 years ago, recently refreshed, but no sign of second generation on horizon. Nor is any new Tesla on horizon. This is not a sustainable strategy in the new era of Chinese innovation.

Why is the refreshed Model 3 not considered a second generation by yourself? There's a lot different about it both in aesthetics and under the hood as well.

Also isn't the whole strategy of OTA updates essentially model updating by increment?

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#3226135 3-May-2024 16:31

HarmLessSolutions:

Also isn't the whole strategy of OTA updates essentially model updating by increment?

I see what you mean, but I don't view that as model updating.

When I mentioned earlier that Tesla changes their models continuously, I meant the physical car itself, not the software. Although I suppose that could be seen as a part of it.

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#3226141 3-May-2024 16:37

dafman:
gzt: Hyundai zero interest zero deposit guaranteed future value on ionic 5 and 6

https://www.hyundai.co.nz/deals/ev-assured-future-value

As is common for car dealers contact is required to get the full terms of the offer. I'm interested to know although I prefer the other model.

It's a guarantee on future trade in price if you purchase now on lease terms and trade in on another Hyundai - not relevant if you buy for cash, want to trade elsewhere, or sell for cash.

But then the zero interest thing would be misleading and incorrect because it's completely irrelevant.

everettpsycho

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#3226192 3-May-2024 20:00

Scott3:
Current environment is the opposite. Anybody who buys a EV now must be ready to take a decent depreciation hit (really this is just a return to normal, EV tech is moving forward quick, so higher depreciation than ICE should be expected). Combine this with prices trending down (and new attractively priced models like the Kia EV5 expected to arrive soon), and there is not really a hurry for anybody to act.

Timing of dropping the Clean Car Discount and addition of RUC's relative to the other market factors is really not ideal, and has accentuated the roller coaster that new car importers must be going through. The likes of VW is clearing it's Id.4's at firesale prices and going to no longer import them once they are gone. So the choice available for NZ EV buyers is likely to decline.

We are sorry if dealing with this, we went early-ish just before the boom getting a pair of leafs. With small kids the range isn't a big concern for us as it is as it's nice to stop regularly and let them play. But now there's two of them the leafs are getting cramped, so want to get a bigger car. But now we're stuck in the situation where it will be expensive to change to another ev for more space and we simply can't justify that price, but going back to petrol isn't something we like the idea of. I'm watching the used mg zs and konas on trade me to track how it's going. With the decline in prices on a leaf I want to see how those models cope. But with the new sales all but dead in the water from recent changes I'm not sure how much lower they'll go as there probably isn't significant supply hitting the used market.

Hopefully companies continue to push decarbonisation and that might help them get in to affordable territory. As much as have out leafs plummet to under half their value in 18 months the free ride has largely meant even if we sold them now we'd have covered most of the cost and been driving around for almost nothing for 2 years.

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#3226241 3-May-2024 21:13

everettpsycho:
..... As much as have out leafs plummet to under half their value in 18 months the free ride has largely meant even if we sold them now we'd have covered most of the cost and been driving around for almost nothing for 2 years.

That seems to be the most palatable way to regard dealing with the economics of being early adopters. The longer you retain the EV the greater your running cost savings compared to a fossil fueled option. This also mitigates the depreciation rate as it tends to lessen over time.

Interestingly investment in PV experiences the same logic; the capex is best viewed as a forward payment of your home energy costs into the future with the bonus being the additional value it adds to your property. In the cases of both EVs and PVs the insulation it provides us from rises in petrol and grid prices respectively, with the effect compounding if both are adopted, is also of significant worth in itself. Throw V2H into the mix and the advantages just keep on increasing.

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