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727 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 2018681 18-May-2018 22:43
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frednz: Now, how long will it be before a NZ-New 64 kWh Kona (or similar) can be bought for around $35,000 - $40,000? Until that time comes, petrol vehicles will continue to be the vehicles of choice and this won't help to reduce global warming!

 

Great youtube video on the subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9k7k3Mzknm8

 

 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 2018924 19-May-2018 13:12
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tripper1000:

 

frednz: Now, how long will it be before a NZ-New 64 kWh Kona (or similar) can be bought for around $35,000 - $40,000? Until that time comes, petrol vehicles will continue to be the vehicles of choice and this won't help to reduce global warming!

 

Great youtube video on the subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9k7k3Mzknm8

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the Youtube link, I agree it's well worth watching.

 

I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.

 

The video emphasises that, except for the battery, EVs are considerably cheaper to manufacture than ICE vehicles. It also claims that battery costs are going down by 20%-30% each year for the same amount of storage. This would indicate that new EVs are considerably overpriced at the moment as manufacturers endeavour to recoup all their research and development costs.

 

So, if you are not too worried about climate change, it looks like you should wait until at least 2020 before shelling out big bucks on EVs.

 

 

 

 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 2018939 19-May-2018 13:25
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frednz:

 

I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.

 

 

I think the video was correct, except for the price parity by 2020 - that seems a little optimistic right there.

 

I suspect we will see price parity between petrol vehicles & EVs and it won't take too long, maybe within 5 years of now.  In two years time? Unlikely.

 

I considered the higher depreciation I would experience by buying a Leaf instead of a Corolla, but I do not believe that the depreciation on a 2nd hand Leaf could possibly be higher than the cost savings for me.  In the first 3 years of owning my Leaf, I am expecting to save ~$8k on running costs, but it could be higher if petrol keeps going up in price.




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  Reply # 2018998 19-May-2018 14:43
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MarkH67:

 

frednz:

 

I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.

 

 

I think the video was correct, except for the price parity by 2020 - that seems a little optimistic right there.

 

I suspect we will see price parity between petrol vehicles & EVs and it won't take too long, maybe within 5 years of now.  In two years time? Unlikely.

 

I considered the higher depreciation I would experience by buying a Leaf instead of a Corolla, but I do not believe that the depreciation on a 2nd hand Leaf could possibly be higher than the cost savings for me.  In the first 3 years of owning my Leaf, I am expecting to save ~$8k on running costs, but it could be higher if petrol keeps going up in price.

 

 

We're one major climate event away from governments pushing EVs hard. 






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  Reply # 2019020 19-May-2018 15:44
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Linuxluver:

 

MarkH67:

 

frednz:

 

I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.

 

 

I think the video was correct, except for the price parity by 2020 - that seems a little optimistic right there.

 

I suspect we will see price parity between petrol vehicles & EVs and it won't take too long, maybe within 5 years of now.  In two years time? Unlikely.

 

I considered the higher depreciation I would experience by buying a Leaf instead of a Corolla, but I do not believe that the depreciation on a 2nd hand Leaf could possibly be higher than the cost savings for me.  In the first 3 years of owning my Leaf, I am expecting to save ~$8k on running costs, but it could be higher if petrol keeps going up in price.

 

 

We're one major climate event away from governments pushing EVs hard. 


 

 

What's a major climate event?   <irony>All climate events are cyclical phenomena. There's no real research backing any serious belief in climate events. </irony>

 

 





nunz

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  Reply # 2019106 19-May-2018 17:59
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frednz:

 

tripper1000:

 

frednz: Now, how long will it be before a NZ-New 64 kWh Kona (or similar) can be bought for around $35,000 - $40,000? Until that time comes, petrol vehicles will continue to be the vehicles of choice and this won't help to reduce global warming!

 

Great youtube video on the subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9k7k3Mzknm8

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the Youtube link, I agree it's well worth watching.

 

I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.

 

The video emphasises that, except for the battery, EVs are considerably cheaper to manufacture than ICE vehicles. It also claims that battery costs are going down by 20%-30% each year for the same amount of storage. This would indicate that new EVs are considerably overpriced at the moment as manufacturers endeavour to recoup all their research and development costs.

 

So, if you are not too worried about climate change, it looks like you should wait until at least 2020 before shelling out big bucks on EVs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020 is 1.5 years away. Another point, is BP say that oil has 50 years left. Over that period it gets harder and harder to mine, and more expensive. 

 

Lithium is the 4th most common element.

 

Solar generation. If that is promoted then distribution is less an issue as no need to distribute if you generate most of your own. NZ has over 80% renewable. Its already there, to work alongside self generation.

 

In 50 years there is no option as there is no oil. yes, there is coal, that has 150 years lifetime. Thats needs to be banned as we need to use the Sun not the Earth.


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  Reply # 2019111 19-May-2018 18:12
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nunz:

 

What's a major climate event?   <irony>All climate events are cyclical phenomena. There's no real research backing any serious belief in climate events. </irony>

 

 

 

 

Climate events have incurred over eons, you are correct. 1800's to now its been artificial. 1980's to now is far more artificial than it was since the 1800's Industrial Revolution, it has been exponential. Natural vs created. Yes, we could have statistically rare events of volcanic eruptions which is natural which will create global warming. The Earth will adapt over millennia. We aren't living a millennia.




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  Reply # 2019143 19-May-2018 19:29
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nunz:

 

What's a major climate event?   <irony>All climate events are cyclical phenomena. There's no real research backing any serious belief in climate events. </irony>

 

 

Something so out of the ordinary even more people will be concerned.........too late, probably, as the processes already underway should be terrifying people right now. 





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  Reply # 2019265 20-May-2018 09:48
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tdgeek:

 

2020 is 1.5 years away. Another point, is BP say that oil has 50 years left. Over that period it gets harder and harder to mine, and more expensive. 

 

Lithium is the 4th most common element.

 

Solar generation. If that is promoted then distribution is less an issue as no need to distribute if you generate most of your own. NZ has over 80% renewable. Its already there, to work alongside self generation.

 

In 50 years there is no option as there is no oil. yes, there is coal, that has 150 years lifetime. Thats needs to be banned as we need to use the Sun not the Earth.

 

 

The abundance of an element is only one facet of its cost; ease of extraction of the element is also important. A lot of that lithium is dissolved in sea water (along with a whole lot of other minerals). Current sources are mostly from salt pans where the water has already evaporated. Once those sources are gone, you'll need to use energy to evaporate the sea water yourself, or come up with some new extraction process. Due to its extremely high reactivity, lithium metal is going to be expensive to make and store and manipulate.

 

Whilst I agree with you about the long-term need to move to renewable energy sources, I don't think there's any need to panic.

 

We've had 50 years (or less) known oil reserves for the last 50 years at least. A couple of years ago we supposedly had reached "peak oil". As known reserves decline, the price goes up, and it becomes economic to do more exploration and to extract oil from places which were previously uneconomic.

 

Converting coal to petroleum (coal liquefaction) has been known for over a 100 years. It becomes economic when oil is scarce (Germany during WW2, South Africa during sanctions).

 

 


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  Reply # 2019268 20-May-2018 10:05
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Yes, its finite, although there are other elements that can be used, also finite

 

Interesting read

 

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough-lithium-to-maintain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m#gs.SWlGxzI

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 2019272 20-May-2018 10:28
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tdgeek:

 

Yes, its finite, although there are other elements that can be used, also finite

 

Interesting read

 

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough-lithium-to-maintain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m#gs.SWlGxzI

 

 

Thanks... interesting.

 

Yes, there's also graphene, which has been touted as potentially being the basis for the next generation of battery, and vanadium.

 

 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 2019275 20-May-2018 10:46
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frankv:

 

Whilst I agree with you about the long-term need to move to renewable energy sources, I don't think there's any need to panic.

 

We've had 50 years (or less) known oil reserves for the last 50 years at least. A couple of years ago we supposedly had reached "peak oil". As known reserves decline, the price goes up, and it becomes economic to do more exploration and to extract oil from places which were previously uneconomic.

 

Converting coal to petroleum (coal liquefaction) has been known for over a 100 years. It becomes economic when oil is scarce (Germany during WW2, South Africa during sanctions).

 

 

Personally, I'm much more worried about the idea of continuing to extract oil & coal and burning it.  Currently, there is a lot of carbon locked up in oil and coal and we are busy getting hold of it and combining it with oxygen to increase the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.  There are some very severe negative consequences to doing this and we are now starting to find out that it is worse than previously thought.  The sooner we stop and the more oil and coal we leave in their current state, the better.


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  Reply # 2019288 20-May-2018 11:02
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MarkH67:

 

frankv:

 

Whilst I agree with you about the long-term need to move to renewable energy sources, I don't think there's any need to panic.

 

We've had 50 years (or less) known oil reserves for the last 50 years at least. A couple of years ago we supposedly had reached "peak oil". As known reserves decline, the price goes up, and it becomes economic to do more exploration and to extract oil from places which were previously uneconomic.

 

Converting coal to petroleum (coal liquefaction) has been known for over a 100 years. It becomes economic when oil is scarce (Germany during WW2, South Africa during sanctions).

 

 

Personally, I'm much more worried about the idea of continuing to extract oil & coal and burning it.  Currently, there is a lot of carbon locked up in oil and coal and we are busy getting hold of it and combining it with oxygen to increase the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.  There are some very severe negative consequences to doing this and we are now starting to find out that it is worse than previously thought.  The sooner we stop and the more oil and coal we leave in their current state, the better.

 

 

Yes, if we could get to electricity big time, and use oil and coal for aircraft and ships, where electricity isnt really an option 




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  Reply # 2019414 20-May-2018 17:03
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tdgeek:

Yes, its finite, although there are other elements that can be used, also finite


Interesting read


https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough-lithium-to-maintain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m#gs.SWlGxzI


 


 



Lithium can be recycled, I'm told. So.... Finite, but reusable.




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 2019785 21-May-2018 13:42
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I don't think lithium availability is much to worry about and a bit of red-herring at this stage of the game for 2 reasons;

 

1) Lithium is not always going to be the best battery we have. The best battery used to be the lead acid, then the Ni-Cad then the Ni-Me. Lead Carbon and flow batteries are angling for top spot in static storage possibly looking to depose lithium due to cost - whoever says lithium is the last word in batteries is not only counting chickens before they hatch, they're counting chickens before the hen has finished laying the eggs. 

 

2). The lithium industry is immature compared to other modern metals such as aluminium so historical surveys of traditional lithium feed stocks aren't a reliable measure of future availability. There has historically been little investment and research into lithium production due to the ability of old/slow processes, using only the richest deposits, to easily meet the low demand (similar to oil in the early days). Aluminium was also once rare and more costly than gold, with the only raw sources being rare salts. Demand drove research realising new sources, refining processes, increased efficiency, increased availability and reduced prices. Today it is electrically reduced from bauxite dug out of the ground on industrial scales and it is used as throw-away packaging. It is still early days for lithium, but if you Google it, a bunch of companies are claiming to have new techniques to extract lithium cheaper than ever and faster than ever (30 days vs 2 years) from previously unconsidered sources such as oil field brines. It is the 4th most common element and lots of smart guys are trying to figure out how to concentrate it.


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