I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.
I think the video was correct, except for the price parity by 2020 - that seems a little optimistic right there.
I suspect we will see price parity between petrol vehicles & EVs and it won't take too long, maybe within 5 years of now. In two years time? Unlikely.
I considered the higher depreciation I would experience by buying a Leaf instead of a Corolla, but I do not believe that the depreciation on a 2nd hand Leaf could possibly be higher than the cost savings for me. In the first 3 years of owning my Leaf, I am expecting to save ~$8k on running costs, but it could be higher if petrol keeps going up in price.
I wonder what people will opt for if an ev is as cheap as a family sedan to buy in 2020?Will they stick with their petrol car or choose a bev.If they choose bevs would car makers be ready to make the switch from petrol to electric vehicles?They would have to start planning for this months in advance to cope with the orders.Then they have all this old stock of ice cars no one wants.Petrol heads will be on a win here.Yes its going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.