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81 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 22


  Reply # 2019802 21-May-2018 14:20
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MarkH67:

 

frednz:

 

I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.

 

 

I think the video was correct, except for the price parity by 2020 - that seems a little optimistic right there.

 

I suspect we will see price parity between petrol vehicles & EVs and it won't take too long, maybe within 5 years of now.  In two years time? Unlikely.

 

I considered the higher depreciation I would experience by buying a Leaf instead of a Corolla, but I do not believe that the depreciation on a 2nd hand Leaf could possibly be higher than the cost savings for me.  In the first 3 years of owning my Leaf, I am expecting to save ~$8k on running costs, but it could be higher if petrol keeps going up in price.

 

 

I wonder what people will opt for if an ev is as cheap as a family sedan to buy in 2020?Will they stick with their petrol car or choose a bev.If they choose bevs would car makers be ready to make the switch from petrol  to electric vehicles?They would have to start planning for this months in advance to cope with the orders.Then they have all this old stock of ice cars no one wants.Petrol heads will be on a win here.Yes its going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.


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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 2019875 21-May-2018 15:18
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Dinga96:

 

I wonder what people will opt for if an ev is as cheap as a family sedan to buy in 2020?

 

 

For the moderately wealthy, an EV *is* as cheap as a family sedan, assuming they reap the rewards of very low fuel costs over the life of the vehicle, and get the expected battery life. Being a two-car family negates the limited range and other issues; for long trips, use the ICE car.

 

However, for people who don't own their own homes, EVs are still out of reach.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 2019890 21-May-2018 15:25
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It's too easy to give inappropriate joke regarding car and new bride



"Electric Jaguar E-Type takes royals to reception"

http://evtalk.co.nz/electric-jaguar-e-type-takes-royals-to-reception/

3600 posts

Uber Geek
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  Reply # 2019901 21-May-2018 15:35
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kingdragonfly: It's too easy to give inappropriate joke regarding car and new bride

"Electric Jaguar E-Type takes royals to reception"

http://evtalk.co.nz/electric-jaguar-e-type-takes-royals-to-reception/

 

The only thing missing was a Union Jack and a "Swinger" number plate

 

Shaguar

 

 


2502 posts

Uber Geek
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  Reply # 2019916 21-May-2018 15:50
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http://evtalk.co.nz/ev-battery-import-breakthrough/

And here itโ€™s touted to be 2020 when battery replacement (for Leaf anyway) will be locally available ๐Ÿ‘

825 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 501


  Reply # 2019921 21-May-2018 15:56
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frankv:For the moderately wealthy, an EV *is* as cheap as a family sedan, assuming they reap the rewards of very low fuel costs over the life of the vehicle, and get the expected battery life. Being a two-car family negates the limited range and other issues; for long trips, use the ICE car.

 

However, for people who don't own their own homes, EVs are still out of reach.

 

Hmmmm, this is true for all types of cars - the poor buy the rich's hand-me-downs irrespective of fuel type. This defeats the argument that poor won't be driving EV's - the poor will be driving EV's because they won't have any choice in the matter if that is all that the rich are trading in.


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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 2019934 21-May-2018 16:17
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tripper1000:

 

frankv:For the moderately wealthy, an EV *is* as cheap as a family sedan, assuming they reap the rewards of very low fuel costs over the life of the vehicle, and get the expected battery life. Being a two-car family negates the limited range and other issues; for long trips, use the ICE car.

 

However, for people who don't own their own homes, EVs are still out of reach.

 

Hmmmm, this is true for all types of cars - the poor buy the rich's hand-me-downs irrespective of fuel type. This defeats the argument that poor won't be driving EV's - the poor will be driving EV's because they won't have any choice in the matter if that is all that the rich are trading in.

 

 

Right. But (a) the poor will be some years behind the rich, and (b) there's a lot more poor than rich.

 

 


81 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 2019964 21-May-2018 17:12
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frankv:

 

tripper1000:

 

frankv:For the moderately wealthy, an EV *is* as cheap as a family sedan, assuming they reap the rewards of very low fuel costs over the life of the vehicle, and get the expected battery life. Being a two-car family negates the limited range and other issues; for long trips, use the ICE car.

 

However, for people who don't own their own homes, EVs are still out of reach.

 

Hmmmm, this is true for all types of cars - the poor buy the rich's hand-me-downs irrespective of fuel type. This defeats the argument that poor won't be driving EV's - the poor will be driving EV's because they won't have any choice in the matter if that is all that the rich are trading in.

 

 

Right. But (a) the poor will be some years behind the rich, and (b) there's a lot more poor than rich.

 

 

 

 

By 2025 Bevs will most likely be cheaper than Petrol cars.


14729 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2752

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  Reply # 2020012 21-May-2018 18:32
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Dinga96:

 

MarkH67:

 

frednz:

 

I think the timelines referred to in the video might be rather optimistic, particularly in a New Zealand context. However, if by 2020, as Erik Fairbairn predicts, you can buy a new EV for no more than the cost of an equivalent petrol vehicle, then early adopters of new EVs are going to take huge depreciation hits over the next 2 or 3 years when they upgrade these EVs to the latest models.

 

 

I think the video was correct, except for the price parity by 2020 - that seems a little optimistic right there.

 

I suspect we will see price parity between petrol vehicles & EVs and it won't take too long, maybe within 5 years of now.  In two years time? Unlikely.

 

I considered the higher depreciation I would experience by buying a Leaf instead of a Corolla, but I do not believe that the depreciation on a 2nd hand Leaf could possibly be higher than the cost savings for me.  In the first 3 years of owning my Leaf, I am expecting to save ~$8k on running costs, but it could be higher if petrol keeps going up in price.

 

 

I wonder what people will opt for if an ev is as cheap as a family sedan to buy in 2020?Will they stick with their petrol car or choose a bev.If they choose bevs would car makers be ready to make the switch from petrol  to electric vehicles?They would have to start planning for this months in advance to cope with the orders.Then they have all this old stock of ice cars no one wants.Petrol heads will be on a win here.Yes its going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.

 

 

It happens over time not overnight.


1845 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1004


  Reply # 2020422 22-May-2018 14:45
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http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/21/technology/tesla-model-3-consumer-reports/index.html

CNN: US magazine "Consumer Reports": We can't recommend Tesla's Model 3

by Peter Valdes-Dapena

"The Tesla Model 3 is not good enough to earn a recommendation from Consumer Reports, the magazine said. While the car is exciting to drive, difficult controls and weak brakes prevented it from getting the publication's much-sought-after approval.

Consumer Reports has said the larger and more expensive Tesla Model S was among the best cars it had ever tested.

Not so with the Tesla Model 3. The magazine praised the car's acceleration, handling and driving range. Those things, Consumer Reports said, could have made it a strong competitor against similarly priced cars like the Audi A4 and BMW 3-series.

In Consumer Reports tests, the Model 3 went from zero to 60 miles an hour in just 5.3 seconds, and testers found the sedan's handling reminiscent of a Porsche Boxster two-seat sports car.

But, in emergency braking tests, the car took 152 feet, on average, to come to a stop from 60 miles an hour. That was seven feet more than a Ford F-150 full-size truck needed, according to the magazine. It's about 20 feet longer than the average for other cars similar to the Model 3.

The car's braking performance was also extremely inconsistent, the magazine said.

Tesla's own tests have shown much shorter stopping distances, a spokeswoman for the automaker said.

The publication also took issue with the Model 3's controls, almost all of which rely on a large centrally-located touch screen.

'This layout forces drivers to take multiple steps to accomplish simple tasks,' Consumer Reports reported in an online post.

Even adjusting the side mirrors or changing the direction of the air flow from the dashboard vents requires interacting with the touch screen. That means extended periods of time in which the driver's eyes are off the road ahead, Consumer Reports said.

Consumer Reports also faulted the Model 3 for its firm ride, uncomfortable rear seats and wind noise at highway speeds.

It was the weak and inconsistent braking performance that really kept the Model 3 from earning a recommendation, though, said Jake Fisher, head of auto testing for Consumer Reports. That leaves open the possibility that, if Tesla were to improve the car's braking performance through a software update, for instance, the car could then earn the approval, Fisher said, despite other issues.

This not the first time Consumer Reports has knocked a Tesla. The Tesla Model X crossover SUV also did not earn its recommendation.

In the auto industry, the non-profit Consumer Reports, which does not publish any advertising and which purchases all the products it tests, is widely considered the most influential publication among car shoppers."

1845 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1004


  Reply # 2020426 22-May-2018 14:59
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The Tesla Model X teamed up with Australian airline Qantas to break the Guinness World Record for electric towing by pulling a 287,000 pound Boeing Dreamliner.


3600 posts

Uber Geek
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  Reply # 2020493 22-May-2018 16:49
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Speaking of Tesla,

 

35K model 3's seem even further away.... ( if ever)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-20/at-78-000-tesla-moves-mass-market-model-3-beyond-the-masses


2502 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 686


Reply # 2020537 22-May-2018 18:12
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kingdragonfly: The Tesla Model X teamed up with Australian airline Qantas to break the Guinness World Record for electric towing by pulling a 287,000 pound Boeing Dreamliner.

 

 

 

not keen to buy that particular one second hand! 


14729 posts

Uber Geek
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  Reply # 2020548 22-May-2018 18:22
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Petrol at 2-30  a litre, expected to go higher. This is when the Govt needs to fund EV advertising. Not to sell 20,000 cars next week, but to plant the seed, so people keep up with the play. Bring demand forward. I know new cars are expensive and not many models, but if a growing sentiment is created, that could open doors to Govt assisted import ideas.


Circumspice
560 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 2020661 22-May-2018 19:43
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Best advertising is the increasing number of Leaf EVs on the road. Even my local garage now has one as courtesy car.


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