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  Reply # 2021646 24-May-2018 09:58
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tdgeek:

 

Petrol at 2-30  a litre, expected to go higher. This is when the Govt needs to fund EV advertising. Not to sell 20,000 cars next week, but to plant the seed, so people keep up with the play. Bring demand forward. I know new cars are expensive and not many models, but if a growing sentiment is created, that could open doors to Govt assisted import ideas.

 

 

The rest of the world found that car makers won't do what you don't *require* them to do. 

I don't know why NZ would be an exception to that. 

Our government needs to require a rising proportion of cars sold here to be electric. The car makers simply won't lift a finger otherwise. 

We've seen over and over and over that auto makers simply don't supply EVs unless you make them. Anywhere. 





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  Reply # 2021652 24-May-2018 10:05
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MikeAqua:

 

My 2.5L petrol car sits on 8.3L/100km fuel consumption for mixed use and we don't deliberately drive in an economical manner.

 

Open road driving is usually below 7L/100km if there are two of us.  

 

There is an article on stuff at the moment documenting a trip from Auckland to Welly driving an i3S without nursing it.  Long story short 12 hours for a ~647km trip.  Google estimates that trip at 8 hours. That's a 50% increase in elapsed time and an average progress rate (across the entire 12 hours) of 53km/hour.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/104073210/Can-you-drive-an-EV-from-Auckland-to-Wellington-in-one-day-stress-free

 

 

I've done that trip several times in my LEAF and 12 hours is about right. I could probably cut an hour off if I didn't fluff around during stops. 

It's zero emissions. 

People still don't realise it's already too late to be drving ICE cars. We've increased atmospheric CO2 from 315ppm to 410ppm in only a century. The consequences of that are unfolding apparently slowly on the scale of human lifespans, but at lightning speed in planetary terms. 

We had our warmest summer. The highest April temperature ever recorded anywhere on Earth in the past 150 years has been recorded this year - 50.2C. The last 400 months have all been warmer than the "average".....an unbroken stream of decades of warmer weather...and getting warmer. 

Even if we parked every car tomorrow and slaughtered every cow and sheep......the planet will still warm for at least 50 more years....and the methane and added carbon released by warming will simply add even more warming to that. 

We fooling ourselves to think we  have any choice about using fossil fuels. All we're doing now is adding more consequences to the lives of people not yet born who have no say in our selfish, short-sighted "convenience". 






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  Reply # 2021655 24-May-2018 10:08
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Linuxluver:

 

tdgeek:

 

Petrol at 2-30  a litre, expected to go higher. This is when the Govt needs to fund EV advertising. Not to sell 20,000 cars next week, but to plant the seed, so people keep up with the play. Bring demand forward. I know new cars are expensive and not many models, but if a growing sentiment is created, that could open doors to Govt assisted import ideas.

 

 

The rest of the world found that car makers won't do what you don't *require* them to do. 

I don't know why NZ would be an exception to that. 

Our government needs to require a rising proportion of cars sold here to be electric. The car makers simply won't lift a finger otherwise. 

We've seen over and over and over that auto makers simply don't supply EVs unless you make them. Anywhere. 

 

 

There is a problem here though, in order for any government to require that the price of EVs needs to be a far more affordable level and the aesthetics need to be refined to appeal to purchases. The catch 22 is that prices wont drop until demand increases and production ramps up. The Leaf technicallyis a good vehicle but no matter how you look it the thing is not pretty, and looks sell cars.

 

I am also very uncomfortable with the concept of governments requiring companies to produce certain products. Safety standards yes but motor vehicles companies should not be regulated to sell EVs the market will bring that about.





Mike
Retired IT Manager. 
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

 Mac user, Windows curser, Chrome OS desired.

 

The great divide is the lies from both sides.

 

 


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  Reply # 2021656 24-May-2018 10:12
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Linuxluver:

 


Even if we parked every car tomorrow and slaughtered every cow and sheep......the planet will still warm for at least 50 more years....and the methane and added carbon released by warming will simply add even more warming to that. 


 

I've read that twice in recent years, 50 years is about the cycle of change for the Earth. Russia has massive areas of tundra (permafrost). An amount (can't now recall how much) is barely below freezing. The doco prodded the surface with a stick, lit a lighter, poof, we now have a soil fired gas burner. As that starts to release, that will give warming a boost, melting more, the same old runaway train/tipping point.


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  Reply # 2021657 24-May-2018 10:13
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Linuxluver:

 

MikeAqua:

 

My 2.5L petrol car sits on 8.3L/100km fuel consumption for mixed use and we don't deliberately drive in an economical manner.

 

Open road driving is usually below 7L/100km if there are two of us.  

 

There is an article on stuff at the moment documenting a trip from Auckland to Welly driving an i3S without nursing it.  Long story short 12 hours for a ~647km trip.  Google estimates that trip at 8 hours. That's a 50% increase in elapsed time and an average progress rate (across the entire 12 hours) of 53km/hour.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/104073210/Can-you-drive-an-EV-from-Auckland-to-Wellington-in-one-day-stress-free

 

 

I've done that trip several times in my LEAF and 12 hours is about right. I could probably cut an hour off if I didn't fluff around during stops. 

It's zero emissions. 

People still don't realise it's already too late to be drving ICE cars. We've increased atmospheric CO2 from 315ppm to 410ppm in only a century. The consequences of that are unfolding apparently slowly on the scale of human lifespans, but at lightning speed in planetary terms. 

We had our warmest summer. The highest April temperature ever recorded anywhere on Earth in the past 150 years has been recorded this year - 50.2C. The last 400 months have all been warmer than the "average".....an unbroken stream of decades of warmer weather...and getting warmer. 

Even if we parked every car tomorrow and slaughtered every cow and sheep......the planet will still warm for at least 50 more years....and the methane and added carbon released by warming will simply add even more warming to that. 

We fooling ourselves to think we  have any choice about using fossil fuels. All we're doing now is adding more consequences to the lives of people not yet born who have no say in our selfish, short-sighted "convenience". 


 

 

 

 

Zero emissions is not quite correct, the air conditioning, the materials on the dash board, the types all have pollutant emissions.  I am a huge supporter of action to address climate change but this has to be done in a sensible and measured way or we could trigger even greater social catastrophes.       





Mike
Retired IT Manager. 
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

 Mac user, Windows curser, Chrome OS desired.

 

The great divide is the lies from both sides.

 

 


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  Reply # 2021714 24-May-2018 11:39
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Linuxluver:

 

It's zero emissions. 

 

Except it isn't zero.  There is direct pollution caused by the operation of EVs.

 

Unless you don't have tyres and never use brake pads, at all, ever (particulate emmissions).  Then there is heat and noise.  Maybe a little bit of EMR as well.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/04/fewer-cars-not-electric-cars-beat-air-pollution-says-top-uk-adviser-prof-frank-kelly

 

The emissions are impressively low. But they aren't 0.0

 

I'm not even sure an EV could claim to have zero CO2 emissions - some direct emissions are likely produced by the wear of the tyres. PM certainly is.





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  Reply # 2021759 24-May-2018 12:25
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Westpac have just bought 50 Ioniq BEVS + 15 PHEVs

 

plus they are going to be rolling out chargers to branches which will have some sort of public access

 

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1805/S00747/westpac-nz-replaces-a-third-of-its-fleet-with-electric-cars.htm


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  Reply # 2021782 24-May-2018 12:43
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Linuxluver:

 

People still don't realise it's already too late to be driving ICE cars. We've increased atmospheric CO2 from 315ppm to 410ppm in only a century. The consequences of that are unfolding apparently slowly on the scale of human lifespans, but at lightning speed in planetary terms. 

 

When you say "people" still don't realise it's already too late to be driving ICE cars, the Government has access to all the scientific brains of the world and has decided that, if there are 64,000 EVs in NZ by the end of 2021, this is a satisfactory step towards removing ICE vehicles from our roads.

 

If this target isn't high enough, what should the number be? The Government has to balance a huge number of conflicting interests, and we all know that it can't stop the use or import of all ICE vehicles overnight.

 

It's very easy to keep stating that nobody should be driving ICE vehicles or be involved in livestock farming or manufacturing industries etc etc, but unless a list of practical alternatives can be put forward that don't completely wreck people's lives, then we just have to trust the Government to manage the situation on our behalf.

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 2021840 24-May-2018 13:46
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I love my 24kWh Leaf for commuting to work & back (70km total), it really works well for that purpose.  Using if for nothing but that commute will still save me the entire purchase price of the car, remembering that I bought it as a 2nd hand Japanese import.

 

If I bought a new EV then it would be MUCH harder to save what it cost.  As a good financial decision, buying 2nd hand is a winner by a huge margin.

 

On longer trips, my 24kWh EV just isn't all that good.  With so many new charging stations being installed it is definitely possible to drive down to Wellington, but there are serious issues that make it not very practical.  Stopping at a fast charger might not take all that long, but I would have to do it a bunch of times to get to Wellington.  When I stop and fast charge the car it becomes painfully slow after 80-85% charge level is reached, so I have to stop even more often since I'm not getting a full charge each time.  Lots of stops to fast charge and pretty soon I'll be cooking my battery - I'm talking about the irreversible damage done here!  So I have to stop to charge a bunch of times, then I have to stop and do nothing for a while as well, while my battery cools.

 

Of course, that is just today's problems.  Once a 2nd hand 60kWh (or better) EV is available at a reasonable price then I'd be able to drive to Wellington with one or two stops.  Heat is less of an issue for higher capacity batteries too, due to less percentage per minute going into the battery.  50kW is a lot of power to my 24kWh battery, that is above 3% per minute which will cause some considerable heating.  To a 60kWh car, it is different, 50kW is less than 1.5% per minute which will generate less than half as much heat in the battery.

 

If I won Lotto then it would all be different, I could just buy a nice new Jaguar i-Pace and then I'm working with 90kWh.  Many problems don't affect the wealthy the same way as the rest of us.

 

Five years from now the EV scene will be so different that we would hardly recognise it from today, things are changing very rapidly with EVs.

 

Right now: For the price of a new EV you could buy a 2nd hand EV for commuting and a 2nd hand petrol burner for long trips and still have $20k left over.  Until you can afford a new EV that will do everything then it makes more sense to spend much less on a 2nd hand one and continue to own a vintage petrol burner to handle the jobs the EV sucks at.


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  Reply # 2021848 24-May-2018 14:01
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MarkH67: Five years from now the EV scene will be so different that we would hardly recognise it from today, things are changing very rapidly with EVs.

 

 

My concern with this, or buying any vehicle at this current time, is the significant rate of depreciation. Exciting, but when to jump in. Lease is popular in the US, I assume it's better rated than here?


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  Reply # 2021854 24-May-2018 14:13
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NzBeagle:

 

My concern with this, or buying any vehicle at this current time, is the significant rate of depreciation. Exciting, but when to jump in. Lease is popular in the US, I assume it's better rated than here?

 

 

With my 2nd hand Leaf I paid only around 1/3 of the new price, most of the depreciation had already happened.  I'm saving so much that my savings will beat the likely amount for the ongoing depreciation.

 

If you are talking about a new car - you WILL lose money.  This applies to petrol powered cars too, if you buy new you will lose thousands, often tens of thousands in depreciation.  The more you spend on a car, the more you lose in depreciation.  Spend a couple of hundred thousand on a new Merc or Audi and see what it is worth after a couple of years.  Possibly with the rapid rate of change with EVs, the depreciation could be even higher - I don't think there is much you can do about that.

 

I'm not sure how leasing could possibly work out to the advantage of the person leasing the vehicle.  Surely the company leasing out the car will suffer the same depreciation on the vehicle, that expense will need to be recovered from the income earned from the lease. They would need to recover all their costs + earn a profit unless they are losing then the leasee must be!  In business, the main advantage would be that the money spent leasing a car can be claimed on taxes, compared to buying a car where the cost has to be claimed over several years instead of when that money was spent.


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  Reply # 2021864 24-May-2018 14:22
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NzBeagle:

 

My concern with this, or buying any vehicle at this current time, is the significant rate of depreciation. Exciting, but when to jump in. Lease is popular in the US, I assume it's better rated than here?

 

 

Its estimated that 80% of US EVs are leased,  (Although this excludes Tesla who wont divulge there sales/lease figures)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/why-most-electric-cars-are-leased-not-owned

 

Leases are very popular in The US, as even when cars are "sold" they are often paid for with Manufacturer's finance, so there is an on going payment either way....

 

There is a standing joke that the US car industry makes more money on loaning people money to buy cars than actually making them....

 

In relation to Evs in NZ, there appears to be a crowd in Auckland leasing leafs, $500 a month ex GST with a 3 years contract,

 

- doesn't sound amazing attractive.....


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  Reply # 2021887 24-May-2018 15:14
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Linuxluver:

 


People still don't realise it's already too late to be drving ICE cars. We've increased atmospheric CO2 from 315ppm to 410ppm in only a century. The consequences of that are unfolding apparently slowly on the scale of human lifespans, but at lightning speed in planetary terms. 

We had our warmest summer. The highest April temperature ever recorded anywhere on Earth in the past 150 years has been recorded this year - 50.2C. The last 400 months have all been warmer than the "average".....an unbroken stream of decades of warmer weather...and getting warmer. 

Even if we parked every car tomorrow and slaughtered every cow and sheep......the planet will still warm for at least 50 more years....and the methane and added carbon released by warming will simply add even more warming to that. 

We fooling ourselves to think we  have any choice about using fossil fuels. All we're doing now is adding more consequences to the lives of people not yet born who have no say in our selfish, short-sighted "convenience". 

 

Yet all your shrill evangelism changes nothing - except to use energy and generate heat.





Mike

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  Reply # 2021950 24-May-2018 16:57
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MarkH67:

 

I love my 24kWh Leaf for commuting to work & back (70km total), it really works well for that purpose.  Using if for nothing but that commute will still save me the entire purchase price of the car, remembering that I bought it as a 2nd hand Japanese import.

 

If I bought a new EV then it would be MUCH harder to save what it cost.  As a good financial decision, buying 2nd hand is a winner by a huge margin.

 

On longer trips, my 24kWh EV just isn't all that good.  With so many new charging stations being installed it is definitely possible to drive down to Wellington, but there are serious issues that make it not very practical.  Stopping at a fast charger might not take all that long, but I would have to do it a bunch of times to get to Wellington.  When I stop and fast charge the car it becomes painfully slow after 80-85% charge level is reached, so I have to stop even more often since I'm not getting a full charge each time.  Lots of stops to fast charge and pretty soon I'll be cooking my battery - I'm talking about the irreversible damage done here!  So I have to stop to charge a bunch of times, then I have to stop and do nothing for a while as well, while my battery cools.

 

Of course, that is just today's problems.  Once a 2nd hand 60kWh (or better) EV is available at a reasonable price then I'd be able to drive to Wellington with one or two stops.  Heat is less of an issue for higher capacity batteries too, due to less percentage per minute going into the battery.  50kW is a lot of power to my 24kWh battery, that is above 3% per minute which will cause some considerable heating.  To a 60kWh car, it is different, 50kW is less than 1.5% per minute which will generate less than half as much heat in the battery.

 

If I won Lotto then it would all be different, I could just buy a nice new Jaguar i-Pace and then I'm working with 90kWh.  Many problems don't affect the wealthy the same way as the rest of us.

 

Five years from now the EV scene will be so different that we would hardly recognise it from today, things are changing very rapidly with EVs.

 

Right now: For the price of a new EV you could buy a 2nd hand EV for commuting and a 2nd hand petrol burner for long trips and still have $20k left over.  Until you can afford a new EV that will do everything then it makes more sense to spend much less on a 2nd hand one and continue to own a vintage petrol burner to handle the jobs the EV sucks at.

 

 

Thanks for an informative post that summarises well many of the issues that have been discussed in this thread.

 

Because the price of a new "pure" EV in NZ is at least $60,000, buying second-hand should be better from a financial viewpoint than buying a brand new EV, but without a manufacturer's NZ-New guarantee, it's more risky when things go wrong.

 

This is evidenced by the "Flip the Fleet" research which shows there may be serious fast degradation problems with the 30 kWh Nissan Leaf battery. In the absence of a reply / solution from Nissan, the resale value of a 30 kWh second-hand Leaf is likely to be much less now than it was previously.

 

So, because of the problems of owning a short-range EV as set out in your post, most people would prefer to own two vehicles, an EV and a petrol vehicle. If you have always owned two vehicles, then this approach makes sense, but doesn't help the emissions problem when the ICE vehicle is used.

 

But, if you have been able to get by with using only one vehicle, then buying an EV as a second vehicle, adds a lot of additional costs to your budget so that you are inclined to wait until a reasonably priced NZ-New long-range "pure" EV is available.

 

The other approach of buying a plug-in hybrid that gives you about 40km-50km of "pure electric" range has some appeal, but it's still an expensive option and the vehicle can end up using petrol for a lot of the time, particularly as the vehicle gets older and the electric range decreases.

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 2021955 24-May-2018 17:06
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MarkH67:

 

NzBeagle:

 

My concern with this, or buying any vehicle at this current time, is the significant rate of depreciation. Exciting, but when to jump in. Lease is popular in the US, I assume it's better rated than here?

 

 

With my 2nd hand Leaf I paid only around 1/3 of the new price, most of the depreciation had already happened.  I'm saving so much that my savings will beat the likely amount for the ongoing depreciation.

 

If you are talking about a new car - you WILL lose money.  This applies to petrol powered cars too, if you buy new you will lose thousands, often tens of thousands in depreciation.  The more you spend on a car, the more you lose in depreciation.  Spend a couple of hundred thousand on a new Merc or Audi and see what it is worth after a couple of years.  Possibly with the rapid rate of change with EVs, the depreciation could be even higher - I don't think there is much you can do about that.

 

I'm not sure how leasing could possibly work out to the advantage of the person leasing the vehicle.  Surely the company leasing out the car will suffer the same depreciation on the vehicle, that expense will need to be recovered from the income earned from the lease. They would need to recover all their costs + earn a profit unless they are losing then the leasee must be!  In business, the main advantage would be that the money spent leasing a car can be claimed on taxes, compared to buying a car where the cost has to be claimed over several years instead of when that money was spent.

 

 

Agreed, but I would expect both options would have increased rate of depreciation during this transitional period, as petrol loses appeal, and EV tech evolves rapidly.


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