Car boom looks like last hurrah for petrol power: Electric vehicles look set to take over?

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5390 posts

Uber Geek

# 1828817 25-Jul-2017 09:30

aza

Linuxluver:

But for now petrol cars are selling like hotcakes. I suspect that is partly due to the rise in property values and people using a chunk of the mortgage to buy the car they want. I've never seen so many Porches....and they would be $80K brand new at least.

It's the finance. There are more pure EVs available second hand than new. But in ICEVs there is abundant choice new and new enables access to offshore finance rates. That situation is distorting the market.

Money is dirt cheap in Japan, USA and Europe. Manufacturers are using that to buy market share. Volvo were advertising 0.9% finance on TV last week, Honda recently 1.7%. That's cheaper than using the mortgage.

Meanwhile NZ finance companies ~10%. I've seen 13% advertised to car buyers like it's a good deal

Ignoring type of vehicle for a moment, people buying a near new car face a much higher interest rate, which translates into a significantly higher cost of ownership.

For all that EV registrations are increasing ... from a low base.

In 2016 63 EVs were registered for the first time in NZ (MIA website data).

In the first half of this year that figure was 186, suggesting a 6 fold increase in EV registrations for all of 2017.

Mostly looks like imported used/ex-demonstrator etc.

Mike

shk292

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# 1828829 25-Jul-2017 09:54

I think the duty cycle of EVs will be a problem for autonomous vehicles. Autonomy will only work economically if the vehicles are in near constant use - and that currently isn't compatible with the endurance and charging time for EVs.

I'm less convinced by the problem of autonomous charging - there are going to be lots of taxi drivers looking for work - maybe they could be "charging attendants"?

As someone pointed out above, for commodity 4-5 seat town-driving hatchbacks, then EVs and even autonomous EVs look like a good replacement. But for tradies carrying tools and ladders, and for people who want to tow a boat to the ramp or take the dogs for a walk, not so much.

There's also the trivia like the use of cars for storing "stuff". I love having a hire car when on holiday because it means that my family don't have to carry all of our stuff with us all of the time. My car here has all sorts of "useful" things in it which I wouldn't want to lug around between shared rides. We're giving up a lot of freedom and convenience when we give up personal cars

MikeAqua

5390 posts

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# 1828928 25-Jul-2017 10:57

I see a role for commercial owned auto-cars replacing taxi/uber - i.e. 'fare-cars'. All taxi or uber driver has to do is replace his/her car with an auto-car and he is away. But, for replacing the privately owned cars (autonomous or not) ... I'm dubious.

People like their cars set-up to suit them. Cars are personalised by whatever their owners keep in/on them. For example, important things like kids car-seats and trivial things like lens wipes.

The family car is also always there when needed. Fare-car fleets do not meet peak demand. If there is a big event in your town and you need/want a car at short notice ... bad luck. Even booking ahead can be dubious during times of excess demand.

I don't have car in Welly, but fare-cars are still my last resort. Shanks pony is the winner with buses a close second.

Mike

Sidestep

716 posts

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# 1828949 25-Jul-2017 11:14

One person supports this post

Linuxluver:

But for now petrol cars are selling like hotcakes. I suspect that is partly due to the rise in property values and people using a chunk of the mortgage to buy the car they want. I've never seen so many Porches....and they would be $80K brand new at least.

This is what Gaynor is saying.......with EVs looking like having the price / cost advantage in 5 years, is it a good idea to spend a large amount on a petrol car that will be seen as an expensive rolling dirty ashtray of emissions in a handful of years?

The other issue is public awareness of climate change. This government whispers about it occasionally but gives no sign of comprehending how grave the situation now actually is. They do pretty much nothing. In that regard they are no different to most conservative parties around the world that have abandoned any pretense of making policy based on evidence.

Meanwhile.. in the US: "GM may kill Chevy Volt... as sales of cars continue to plummet in the U.S. and as consumers increasingly turn to SUVs and pickups"

USA Today

"Cough".. I have to admit it.. I'm a fossil fuel addict.. :(

I keep meaning to stop using - but.. somehow I find myself driving the kids to the school bus in the 4wd, seated on the tractor, grading the driveway or - once again - on a 12 hour flight in a 777 that's burning a litre of fuel per second, heading back to Canada.

My fuel sipping Subaru, and 2 diesel guzzling pickups sit in my driveway there.The street where my house is, the suburb I live in, virtually the whole city ('cept the downtown core where the Yippy's live) is full of the same.

Right now I only go over and use them for 2 months of the year, and the one truck I only ever use when collecting our '5th wheel' RV from storage for a summer trip (Several of my neighbours cleverly keep their diesel 'pusher' motorhomes on parking pads off the back alley) but like the others, it's 'Paid For'.

I got them fitted out the way I wanted, I already own them, and when I want to use them they're there.
If I want a new one, our Dodge dealer's offering 0% for 64 months, up to $15K cashback, or 15% off MSRP.
Petrol's 90c/l.. ish in Calgary, diesel's 80c/l unless that changes everybody will just keep on keeping on.

There's a massive investment in existing infrastructure. I have no doubt with time (and legislation) things will change.
But I believe those waves of change'll be more like the in & out surges of a slowly rising tide than a sudden tsunami.
In fact I've got money on it.

Edit:grammar

frankv

3026 posts

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# 1828988 25-Jul-2017 11:28

Sidestep:

But I believe those waves of change'll be more like the in & out surges of a slowly rising tide than a sudden tsunami.

I think the tsunami will come, but not for another 5-10 years.

The price of petrol (at least here and in Europe) is high enough now that EVs are an economic alternative, at least for those who can afford new cars and luxury cars. Battery technology continues to improve, so EV prices will fall and/or capabilities will increase. As more people switch to EVs, larger economies of scale will apply to battery and EV manufacture. (Last I knew, the big driver in battery production and research was for electric power tools). As time goes by, second-hand EVs will become cheaper and more generally available. As the EV population increases, so will the EV infrastructure, making EVs more attractive still.

Countering this, the demand for petrol and diesel will fall as EV usage increases, so prices of fossil fuels will fall for a while. But eventually they'll lose economy of scale, and prices will rise.

ubergeeknz

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Vocus

# 1828999 25-Jul-2017 11:46

tdgeek:

Why are EV's costly?

Batteries. But as you say, that will change.

frednz

1238 posts

Uber Geek

# 1829246 25-Jul-2017 17:36

Linuxluver:

frednz:

I would be interested to hear your views on this article by Brian Gaynor, where he asks the following question:

“Vehicle sales are booming but are we buying cars that will be obsolete before the end of their working life?”

Brian’s answer to this question is that:

“The issue for New Zealand consumers is that the resale value of petrol-based vehicles could decline more rapidly than previously as electric vehicles become more popular and cheaper to operate.

Astute buyers, with a long-term perspective, will take this into account when purchasing a new vehicle or a second-hand import.”

But could the opposite situation also apply? Electric vehicles (EVs) are just in their infancy and new EVs (or near new) are quite a lot more expensive than their petrol-based equivalents.

Because EV technology is developing so fast, isn’t it possible that owners of relatively low-range EVs are also likely to experience a rapid drop in resale value as the range and price of newer EVs improves? Also, some higher priced older model EVs, such as the BMW i3, are taking quite a long time to sell and this factor needs to be taken into account when investing in electric vehicles!

The table of NZ vehicle sales in Brian's article is very interesting. It shows total vehicle registrations at 31 May 2017 of 4,090,313, an increase of 171,632 in just one year. And the previous year, registrations increased by 212,456.

Brian says these vehicle registration figures explain why our roads have become more and more congested. So, shouldn't the Government have some controls over the huge number of petrol based vehicles that are coming into the country and causing even more pollution?

Bunch of issues here.

Yes, EVs are more expensive to buy right now, but they are *aleady* far cheaper to run and maintain.

Yes, the lower-range EVs definitely are experiencing faster depreciation in value as the newer, more capable models begin to appear.

Yes, new petrol cars have seen the same rapid loss of value in their own time when faced with cheaper second-hand imports.

That's all true.

So what's next?

Battery prices are falling rapidly. That is reducing the price of EVs. One local example is the Renault Zoe. Six months ago Renault were selling the 22kWh model for about NZ$69,000. Yesterday, as Renault sales person told me they are going to be selling the 41kWh Zoe - twice the battery - for $68,000. He said they should have some next week.

Alongside that you have EV Central in Taupo importing new/"used" 41kWh Zoe EVs from the UK and selling them for $40,000. That's an EV with a guaranteed local driving range of at least 250km.....and more like 300+ if used as a city car. Last week Elon Musk said he expects the Tesla Model 3 to be NZ$50,000 plus taxes....and that assumes nothing changes in the meantime to provide incentives. In a couple of years the cost of EVs will match the cost of new petrol cars. But they only really need to come close they are so much cheaper to run. Paying even 10% more for an EV will still show huge savings the first time the new owner realises s/he never has to buy petrol again...and servicing is limited to new tyres, brake pads very occasionally, lube the suspension....and a new 12v battery every few years.

But for now petrol cars are selling like hotcakes. I suspect that is partly due to the rise in property values and people using a chunk of the mortgage to buy the car they want. I've never seen so many Porches....and they would be $80K brand new at least.

This is what Gaynor is saying.......with EVs looking like having the price / cost advantage in 5 years, is it a good idea to spend a large amount on a petrol car that will be seen as an expensive rolling dirty ashtray of emissions in a handful of years?

The other issue is public awareness of climate change. This government whispers about it occasionally but gives no sign of comprehending how grave the situation now actually is. They do pretty much nothing. In that regard they are no different to most conservative parties around the world that have abandoned any pretense of making policy based on evidence.

Thanks for all your informative replies.

It says here that:

On 5 May 2016, the Government announced its Electric Vehicles Programme. This includes measures to increase the number of electric vehicles in New Zealand and has a goal of reaching approximately 64,000 electric vehicles on our roads by the end of 2021.

At present, we have about 4,000 EVs in NZ, so let's hope the target of 64,000 EVs by the end of 2021 can easily be met.

But, this is still a drop in the bucket compared with total registrations at 31 May 2017 of 4,090,313 vehicles.

In the last 2 years, total vehicle registrations have increased by about 384,000 vehicles. If we keep on at that rate, EVs as a proportion of total vehicles will still only be a tiny percentage and not be able to make even a tiny dent in our carbon emissions.

If we are serious about climate change, don't you think NZ somehow needs to introduce measures to discourage the addition of such a large number of petrol vehicles each year and considerably boost the incentives for buying EVs?

It's great to think that within 10 years there won't be many petrol vehicles left in NZ, but even if 4,000,000 of them were abandoned, what's going to happen to them, how can such a large number be disposed of? I have the feeling there will still be a large number of petrol vehicles on our roads in 10 years' time, but hopefully I'll be proved wrong!

Linuxluver

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# 1830369 25-Jul-2017 21:57

vexxxboy:

when 6 out of the top ten cars sold new in NZ are not cars as such , what equivalent in electric cars, that can be used in rural areas and for most tradies, are available .

The range / choice today is still limited.

Small vans suitable for sparkies and plumbers and some builders would be the Nissan eNV-200 and the Renault Kangoo. LDV are bringing out a much larger van - more like a Ford Tranist - with a 75kWh battery in December, they say.

For fully electric utes and 4wd vehicles the best offerings are 12-18 months away. But they are on the way.

For pluggable hybrids there is the Mitsi Outlander and they are available as 2nd-hand imports at reasonable prices. They can do 40-50km on battery alone. That would be a fair chunk of any day's petrol. Plus you can plug them in. I think you can even recharge the battery while driving on petrol.....not so sure about that one.

It also depends on whether the vehicle desired is actually truly a physical requirement or simply desired. That will vary by individual.

If there is any point to this it's that 3 years ago there were no options. Now there are a few...and soon there will be many more.

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Linuxluver

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# 1830378 25-Jul-2017 22:08

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frankv:

Sidestep:

But I believe those waves of change'll be more like the in & out surges of a slowly rising tide than a sudden tsunami.

I think the tsunami will come, but not for another 5-10 years.

The price of petrol (at least here and in Europe) is high enough now that EVs are an economic alternative, at least for those who can afford new cars and luxury cars. Battery technology continues to improve, so EV prices will fall and/or capabilities will increase. As more people switch to EVs, larger economies of scale will apply to battery and EV manufacture. (Last I knew, the big driver in battery production and research was for electric power tools). As time goes by, second-hand EVs will become cheaper and more generally available. As the EV population increases, so will the EV infrastructure, making EVs more attractive still.

Countering this, the demand for petrol and diesel will fall as EV usage increases, so prices of fossil fuels will fall for a while. But eventually they'll lose economy of scale, and prices will rise.

Many EVs are low-price imported Nissan LEAFs for about $10k-$15k and being bought by people who aren't wealthy. They just want to stop making climate change worse. This was my main reason and is the main reason most people I know who drive EVs - from LEAF to Tesla Model X - will give.

That is a major factor in the growth of EV sales at all price points. It's WHY Tesla's market value is higher than Ford despite making 1/40th as many cars. People are betting on the future and making some personal compromises as far as utility and convenience go to make that switch now.

The more people come to understand it's already extremely late in the piece climate-wise, the less the economics of it will matter. But at the same time, buying an EV will be begin to a match on price....and I've already said EVs today are already far cheaper a petrol or diesel vehicle to run and maintain once you have one.

We're just quibbling over the price now. The after-purchase cost comparison is firmly a win for EVs already.

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KiwiME

148 posts

Master Geek

# 1830546 26-Jul-2017 10:36

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Linuxluver:

... They just want to stop making climate change worse. This was my main reason and is the main reason most people I know who drive EVs - from LEAF to Tesla Model X - will give.

... People are betting on the future and making some personal compromises as far as utility and convenience go to make that switch now.

The more people come to understand it's already extremely late in the piece climate-wise, the less the economics of it will matter.

It is unfortunately true that climate change is a complex subject and to truly understand the severity of the issue takes considerable study with some knowledge of physics and control system dynamics. Nevermind that it's essentially cumulative and irreversible, and warming based on our current CO2 level is decades from equilibrium.

I applaud the effort made by all the early adopters of EVs and yourself for publishing your experiences.

surfisup1000

4439 posts

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# 1830580 26-Jul-2017 11:46

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MikeB4: There will need to be a big advance in power generation plants and infrastruction or the whole thing will be chaos. Power stations take time to build and longer to plan and gain consents, if we are looking at a five year target New Zealand is already in trouble.

Maybe not so bad as you might think...

Meridian estimates that if it was possible to immediately convert the country's entire light vehicle fleet - which numbers more than three million - it would add around 7000 GWh to the electricity sector or the equivalent of 17 per cent of generation.

''If you spread that demand growth over say 30 to 40 years it becomes incrementally a relatively small number. The country can cope comfortably with delivering new renewable generation to meet this potential demand growth,'' he said.

tdgeek

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# 1830586 26-Jul-2017 11:58

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surfisup1000:

MikeB4: There will need to be a big advance in power generation plants and infrastruction or the whole thing will be chaos. Power stations take time to build and longer to plan and gain consents, if we are looking at a five year target New Zealand is already in trouble.

Maybe not so bad as you might think...

Meridian estimates that if it was possible to immediately convert the country's entire light vehicle fleet - which numbers more than three million - it would add around 7000 GWh to the electricity sector or the equivalent of 17 per cent of generation.

''If you spread that demand growth over say 30 to 40 years it becomes incrementally a relatively small number. The country can cope comfortably with delivering new renewable generation to meet this potential demand growth,'' he said.

Makes a lot of sense. You would want Govt to track this, so they can manage solar home/business generation to help keep pace, promote if its lagging type of thing

Businesses would have to be a prime target as they generally operate in sun hour timeframes

MikeAqua

5390 posts

Uber Geek

# 1831599 26-Jul-2017 13:22

One thing i don't understand is why EVs have lower towing ratings.

E.g. Outlander 4WD PHEV tows 750 kg braked. Outlander diesel 4WD 2,000 kg (~200kg difference in kerb weight).

I would have thought electric motors would be better for towing than ICEs?

Mike

frednz

1238 posts

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# 1831601 26-Jul-2017 13:29

KiwiME:

Linuxluver:

... They just want to stop making climate change worse. This was my main reason and is the main reason most people I know who drive EVs - from LEAF to Tesla Model X - will give.

... People are betting on the future and making some personal compromises as far as utility and convenience go to make that switch now.

The more people come to understand it's already extremely late in the piece climate-wise, the less the economics of it will matter.

It is unfortunately true that climate change is a complex subject and to truly understand the severity of the issue takes considerable study with some knowledge of physics and control system dynamics. Nevermind that it's essentially cumulative and irreversible, and warming based on our current CO2 level is decades from equilibrium.

I applaud the effort made by all the early adopters of EVs and yourself for publishing your experiences.

I agree, the experiences of early adopters are very valuable to people who are considering buying their first EV.

As to climate change, it's been announced that the UK Government will commit to banning the sale of all new diesel and petrol cars by 2040 in a bid to encourage people to switch to electric and hybrid vehicles.

So, perhaps NZ should consider doing this also?

But, 2040 is a long way off so it shows that a lot of people don't think there's any need to panic and make the switch date, say, 2025 or earlier. In fact, much of the push to EVs overseas seems to be to improve air quality, but in NZ I don't think that air quality in major cities is all that bad (yet). In other words, how urgent is it really to kick all ICE vehicles off our roads - are some people getting a bit too emotive about this?

And why should a hybrid vehicle be classified as an EV? On all long trips most hybrid owners would be burning petrol or diesel, so shouldn't all hybrids be phased out also. After all, most current hybrids have a pure electric range of only about 30-50km, so they can't match a pure electric vehicle because they are still polluting the atmosphere when they are burning petrol.

Also, Volvo is often being quoted as selling only EVs from 2019, but again, this is a bit misleading because they will also be selling hybrids.

BruceHamilton

77 posts

Master Geek

# 1831641 26-Jul-2017 14:35

I suspect people will adopt EVs in NZ far faster than expected. EVs will be purchased when they offer superior value for money to conventional ICE vehicles. As global manufacturers switch to EVs, the upfront cost to NZers will decrease. The most obvious stumbling blocks are range anxiety and recharging times - both battery issues. Tesla's solution ( superchargers next to food/shops ) probably won't work here, except for long distance trips.

However, early in the 20th century, EVs dominated American city vehicles. Apart from batteries, they had long vehicle lives and were non-smelly and clean, easy to start, and drive. That's where EVs will dominate first in NZ as well. To most people quick travelling in cities and reduced depreciation would be major benefits, but businesses are unlikely to consider depreciation as a purchasing factor. If authorities want to train citizens they can implement measures, eg EV only parking spaces, reduced parking fees ( unlikely, revenue is the 21st Century Laudanum for elected officials ), EV-only lanes, increased taxation on petrol and diesel, etc.

Officials can also help drive consumers to more appropriate vehicle size/mass by implementing shorter parking spaces ( especially near corners ), relating registration fees to vehicle/mass, removing heavy vehicles without anti-intrusion skirts from city roads at peak timea. Occupants of smaller vehicles are instant puree when trying to piggy-back a vehicle several times their mass. Many occupants of small vehicles don't like being adjacent to large wheels on big vehicles, even if travelling in same direction. Autonomous vehicles will liberate occupants to perform other tasks, provided they feel comfortable and safe travelling on the road. Smaller, lighter vehicles, whether ICE, Fuel-Cell, or EV, can greatly reduce national consumption of hydrocarbon road fuels.

The battery issues are being rapidly confronted, as is vehicle design, more rapid recharging, and autonomous driving. The economic incentives for localised autonomous vehicles, such as commuter cars returning home for other tasks ( school, sports, etc.) are obvious ( hence the current huge investment ), and ownership can be also be shared to reduce up-frobnt and operational costs. Robotics/machine vision will easily address EV recharging issues. Once the battery technology is improved, EVs will be the daily runabout, and large family cars will be relegated to long distance trips.

Once upon a time, every NZ suburb had several service-stations selling different brand ICE fuels and performing vehicle repairs and owners took 10-15 minutes to refuel their vehicle and check essential fluids and tyre pressures, as well as chat to the attendant. People are more time poor, as evidenced by the ever-increasing flowrates of ICE fuels at service-stations. If EVs can deliver faster, cost-effective commutes, and higher availability vehicle for a family, they will replace urban ICE vehicles fairly rapidly. It's likely locally-autonomous vehicles will be very attractive for many people.

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