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77 posts

Master Geek


  # 1833701 30-Jul-2017 13:20
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MarkH67:

 

BruceHamilton:

 

EVs will require new battery technology to replace the role of large diesel vehicles.

 

 

They will?

 

So, what about the current Semi trucks in development?  Daimler and Tesla are already making working prototypes.

 

 

In USA, long distance semis typically expect to travel 1000 - 1200 km / 24 hours. Not all travel is horizontal or above 15 degrees C. The tractor units also provide power for some loads ( refrigeration, temperature control ), as well as the cabs both during travel and mandatory sleeping breaks. Some EV proponents suggest battery rental and/or quick replacement and autonomous vehicles will overcome those issues. However, a 36 tonne vehicle at speed on an Interstate is likely to puree the occupants of any car unfortunate enough to be hit, even if semi has anti-intrusion skirts.  As noted above, a Tesla EV is unlikely to be competitive for long distance freight, but may be for urban delivery roles. It's quite possible urban areas will penalise/expel diesel vehicles over next few years, so upfront/operating costs will become irrelevant.

 

For other situations truckers will be interested if operating costs are lower, but more particularly once load/distance costs are comparable and initial capital cost is similar. Given the battery thermal management/lifetime issues with "high" charge rates ( even on some current EV batteries ), I'd suggest new battery technology will be the breakthrough. However mass/speed/axle damage to roads will have to be repaired from revenue from somewhere, so heavy EVs can no longer expect RUC and taxation holidays.

 

 




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  # 1833743 30-Jul-2017 15:03
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doug3: http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/

Not a brief drive around the factory, shows more about the car than Elon Musk did.


That's a seriously positive review. :-)  





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  # 1833745 30-Jul-2017 15:08
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BruceHamilton:

 

MarkH67:

 

BruceHamilton:

 

EVs will require new battery technology to replace the role of large diesel vehicles.

 

 

They will?

 

So, what about the current Semi trucks in development?  Daimler and Tesla are already making working prototypes.

 

 

In USA, long distance semis typically expect to travel 1000 - 1200 km / 24 hours. Not all travel is horizontal or above 15 degrees C. The tractor units also provide power for some loads ( refrigeration, temperature control ), as well as the cabs both during travel and mandatory sleeping breaks. Some EV proponents suggest battery rental and/or quick replacement and autonomous vehicles will overcome those issues. However, a 36 tonne vehicle at speed on an Interstate is likely to puree the occupants of any car unfortunate enough to be hit, even if semi has anti-intrusion skirts.  As noted above, a Tesla EV is unlikely to be competitive for long distance freight, but may be for urban delivery roles. It's quite possible urban areas will penalise/expel diesel vehicles over next few years, so upfront/operating costs will become irrelevant.

 

For other situations truckers will be interested if operating costs are lower, but more particularly once load/distance costs are comparable and initial capital cost is similar. Given the battery thermal management/lifetime issues with "high" charge rates ( even on some current EV batteries ), I'd suggest new battery technology will be the breakthrough. However mass/speed/axle damage to roads will have to be repaired from revenue from somewhere, so heavy EVs can no longer expect RUC and taxation holidays.

 

It just has to be good enough. A truck that can do 80% of it for 30% of the cost will be good enough. They have developed processes around existing technology. They will re-engineer those rapidly if they can do the same thing for a lot less money.....including getting rid of the drivers. We may see a "truck way" network built for autonomous trucking......carved out of or added to the existing Interstate network, perhaps. 

Change can seem unthinkable from within the existing paradigm. Blow away the paradigm and the world looks very different. 





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  # 1833749 30-Jul-2017 15:13
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tdgeek:

 

I dont get hybrids, unless they were for slowly graduating to EV. The ICE also has to carry the weight of the batteries and EV engine, the EV has to lug around the ICE

 

 

I never bought one. I wanted to go fully electric all along. But I suppose hybrids helped car makers meet fuel efficiency regulations in major jurisdictions that adopted them in order to reduce air pollution. For car owners they reduced the petrol bill......and often by quite a bit. But they were limited by the high cost of the batteries (only 2.?kWh in some of the Priius cars) and the need to charge the battery by burning petrol. 

Ten years ago the Priius was the aspirational car of most greenies.....cleaner and cheaper. 

 





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Ultimate Geek


  # 1833755 30-Jul-2017 15:35
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BruceHamilton:

 

I'd suggest new battery technology will be the breakthrough.

 

 

I'd suggest that new battery technology could drastically improve the uptake of ALL electric vehicles.  Longer lifespan batteries with higher capacity and lower cost with more energy stored per kg as well as per litre of volume - that would make EVs all that much more viable for everyone.

 

I would switch to an electric motorcycle if new battery technology could give me 300+ kms of range from a charge.  Currently it is nowhere near that but over the next decade or two - who knows what advances we will see.


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  # 1833800 30-Jul-2017 16:03
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Just read a couple of articles about the Model 3 launch. It would appear the version most people will go for is the $US44K not $US35K that most media outlets picked up on. They are not building any of the $35K ones until at least November. They have used neat marketing tricks like if you want any colour other than black, that's a thousand bucks extra. Want anything other than the poverty pack interior, five grand thanks. Autopilot $5000, bigger battery $9000, better wheels $1500, etc. The fully featured Model 3 is out the door at $US68K.

Edit: Apologies for pulling the thread back on topic.




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  # 1833852 30-Jul-2017 18:44
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And yet, watching the launch vid, Elon said they are only making the cheaper version until (I think) November, as they will have less chance of slowing production by reducing the supply chain exposure?

What I read was that what most people want is the ‘fully loaded’ version, and were debating whether it was worth waiting for, or jump in now (as they are pulled from the queue) with the ‘basic’ model... 🤔

http://www.autonews.com/article/20170606/OEM04/170609834/early-tesla-model-3-models-will-have-limited-configuration-options?X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

 
 
 
 


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  # 1833855 30-Jul-2017 19:02
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I think you have misunderstood (or the reporters have). The version being sold now is the big battery RWD Tesla with the premium package. So the limited options is because its already optioned out with large battery and premium package.





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  # 1833879 30-Jul-2017 19:44
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Dingbatt: Just read a couple of articles about the Model 3 launch. It would appear the version most people will go for is the $US44K not $US35K that most media outlets picked up on. They are not building any of the $35K ones until at least November. They have used neat marketing tricks like if you want any colour other than black, that's a thousand bucks extra. Want anything other than the poverty pack interior, five grand thanks. Autopilot $5000, bigger battery $9000, better wheels $1500, etc. The fully featured Model 3 is out the door at $US68K.

Edit: Apologies for pulling the thread back on topic.

 

Thats what the US does. I bought a 1979 Mustang (the weird 4 cylinder turbo one, except mine was the 5 litre V8 with all the goodies), was C$4500, my price C$9000, they do base plus options. Here we do a price.


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Uber Geek


  # 1833881 30-Jul-2017 19:46
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jarledb:

I think you have misunderstood (or the reporters have). The version being sold now is the big battery RWD Tesla with the premium package. So the limited options is because its already optioned out with large battery and premium package.



You sure?

Launched with a single variant capable of driving 220 miles, a longer-range battery can be ordered to increase range to 310 miles. 0-60mph acceleration is rated at 5.6 and 5.1 seconds respectively for the 220 mile and 310 mile versions.

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla/model-3/100317/new-tesla-model-3-review

Links to other reviewers that say differently please?

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  # 1833964 31-Jul-2017 01:02
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Look here for the online configurator available for those that are able to order cars at the moment, reportedly only employees of Tesla.. 

 

Quote:

 

At the moment, employees have to pay a minimum of $49,000 because only the ‘long range’ battery option for a $9,000 is in production as well as the glass roof, which is part of a $5,000 “premium package”.

 

They are being asked to configure that car or wait for the cheaper options coming this fall – or even the dual motor coming even later 





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  # 1835335 2-Aug-2017 00:17
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Linuxluver:

 

tdgeek:

 

I dont get hybrids, unless they were for slowly graduating to EV. The ICE also has to carry the weight of the batteries and EV engine, the EV has to lug around the ICE

 

 

I never bought one. I wanted to go fully electric all along. But I suppose hybrids helped car makers meet fuel efficiency regulations in major jurisdictions that adopted them in order to reduce air pollution. For car owners they reduced the petrol bill......and often by quite a bit. But they were limited by the high cost of the batteries (only 2.?kWh in some of the Priius cars) and the need to charge the battery by burning petrol. 

Ten years ago the Priius was the aspirational car of most greenies.....cleaner and cheaper. 

 

 

 

The prius battery system allowed Toyota to use an Atkinson cycle petrol engine instead of the usual Otto cycle engine. Atkinson engines are more efficient. But have poor idle and low load efficiency. But under low load, the engine if off and the battery propels the car. And if the battery gets low, the charging load + propulsion loads helps to keep the engine in it's efficient range.

 

And hybrid technology is still relevant today. Just have a look at the Toyota Prius C (named Toyota Aqua in Japan). According to Wikipedia, The launch of the toyota Aqua was the most successful nameplate launch in Japan in 20 years. Over 1 million of them have been sold in Japan alone. They are already starting to appear in NZ as used imports, And lots will probably be imported here. As they will probably be available for similar prices to non hybrid small cars. But with far lower fuel consumption.

 

There are lots of people who don't have the right driving patterns to suit a full electric car. But switching to a hybrid will still allow them to save heaps on emissions and fuel costs.






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Uber Geek


  # 1835584 2-Aug-2017 11:36
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Yes, my wife is currently learning to adapt her heavy footed driving (1 week with an 11 bar 2011 Leaf today) and says managed to ‘limp’ home using regenerative breaking on the free way hills to arrive home freaked out to have only 11kms left from her 120km start (on the dash Guess-O-Meter) having only driven her usual 84km round trip commute.

Seems she likes the instant torque more than she likes ‘cruising’ and feels a car capable of 105km/h on the freeway shouldn’t be impacted by DOING that 105km/h for 30+ of her 42kms home trip 😂

Driving habits are a big part of a fully BEV car at the low range end I’d say...

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  # 1835614 2-Aug-2017 11:58
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PhantomNVD: Yes, my wife is currently learning to adapt her heavy footed driving (1 week with an 11 bar 2011 Leaf today) and says managed to ‘limp’ home using regenerative breaking on the free way hills to arrive home freaked out to have only 11kms left from her 120km start (on the dash Guess-O-Meter) having only driven her usual 84km round trip commute.

Seems she likes the instant torque more than she likes ‘cruising’ and feels a car capable of 105km/h on the freeway shouldn’t be impacted by DOING that 105km/h for 30+ of her 42kms home trip 😂

Driving habits are a big part of a fully BEV car at the low range end I’d say...

 

My wife is like that, takes off solid, brakes late lol. I see the wife effect on the Euro mpg meter, its always 11+. mine is 9-10 max, around town

 

And drag squares with speed. Twice the speed, four times the drag 




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  # 1835736 2-Aug-2017 13:54
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Dingbatt: Just read a couple of articles about the Model 3 launch. It would appear the version most people will go for is the $US44K not $US35K that most media outlets picked up on. They are not building any of the $35K ones until at least November. They have used neat marketing tricks like if you want any colour other than black, that's a thousand bucks extra. Want anything other than the poverty pack interior, five grand thanks. Autopilot $5000, bigger battery $9000, better wheels $1500, etc. The fully featured Model 3 is out the door at $US68K.

Edit: Apologies for pulling the thread back on topic.


You're forgiven. (By me, anyway). 

Tesla always said the most basic model would be US$35k....and it was likely many people would want more. 

I'm ok with that.





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If you order a Tesla, use my referral code to get free stuff. 

 

My Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/steve52356


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