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109 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 1848416 18-Aug-2017 10:44
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I think that it is a great idea, just don't expect those of us still down in the South Island to help pay for it.

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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1848418 18-Aug-2017 10:45
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caminham:

 

kryptonjohn:

 

caminham:

 

Thanks to Auckland's housing market - people already do this. A lot from Hamilton, but I also know of a few going a few times a week from Tauranga. If you're up early enough its 90 minutes from Hamilton to Auckland by car - not too different from the commute from Howick some days.

 

 

Have they done their sums? An extra 45,000k per year (over a CBD commute from say, Manukau) on your car, even ignoring the loss of time, is more than $30,000 at standard accounting rates for overall cost of driving.

 

That's enough to pay the mortgage on the average Auckland house.

 

 

I'm not sure what average Auckland Mortgage you have in mind but a $800'000 mortgage (an average house in Auckland is over $1 million now and this assumes you can get a %20 deposit - well done!). Repayments on that are $4,437 per month, or $53'244 per year (https://www.bnz.co.nz/personal-banking/home-loans/calculators/home-loan-calculator).

 

A commute from Flat Bush for example ($1,040,300 median house price https://www.qv.co.nz/suburb/flat-bush-auckland/8694):

 

  • Parking $12 per day (if you're lucky)
  • 50km of travel (based on 15l/100km and $2 per litre): $30 per day
  • Total cost: $42 per day or $10'920 per year

The average house price in Hamilton in Jan was $534,860. Using the same mortgage calculator as above and a 20% deposit repayments are $2,373 per month, or $28'476 per year.

 

So if commuting from Hamilton by train:

 

  • you save at least $3'120 per year on parking
  • you save $24'768 per year on your smaller mortgage
  • So if the train can be done for less than $107.26 return each day - you're winning based on mortgage, parking and travel costs.

Using the same fuel figures as above the 125km trip costs $75 per day plus $12 for parking so they're still better off financially by driving.

 

 

Hang on a minute - we were talking about people who currently drive from Hamilton to Auckland and whether they did their sums so let's not compare to using public transport just yet*.

 

Also if comparing apples to apples then either they own in the Tron and buy in Auckland or they rent either way. If they own then you don't need to fund into the comparison the whole 20% deposit in Auckland as the Tron place also has a deposit. If the annual mortgage payment in Auckland is around $57k and the annual Tron payment is $31k theres a $26k difference. So you are still worse off on a cash basis and that is before the loss of many hundreds of almost priceless hours.

 

* if you want to compare to public transport then as I said before, you cannot beat the $17 bus.

 

I don't believe it's worth taxing every living soul in NZ to move a few thousand people off a bus or car into a rather inflexible train service.

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1848426 18-Aug-2017 10:48
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MikeB4:

 

Rikkitic:

 

Build it and they will come? This kind of thing seems to work well enough in Europe. Kiwis really seem to like thinking of reasons why something won't work.

 

 

yep accentuate the positive. We need to think differently and long term

 

 

It's not enough to be an optimistic dreamer. If you don't think these things through you risk building a succession of expensive, redundant white elephants.

 

 


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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1848459 18-Aug-2017 11:04
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kryptonjohn:

 

Hang on a minute - we were talking about people who currently drive from Hamilton to Auckland and whether they did their sums so let's not compare to using public transport just yet*.

 

Also if comparing apples to apples then either they own in the Tron and buy in Auckland or they rent either way. If they own then you don't need to fund into the comparison the whole 20% deposit in Auckland as the Tron place also has a deposit. If the annual mortgage payment in Auckland is around $57k and the annual Tron payment is $31k theres a $26k difference. So you are still worse off on a cash basis and that is before the loss of many hundreds of almost priceless hours.

 

* if you want to compare to public transport then as I said before, you cannot beat the $17 bus.

 

 

I'm not following... I've only factored in the 20% part as it relates to the size of your mortgage. i.e. To buy an average $1 million dollar house in Auckland you'd need a $800'000 mortgage because you already (by some miracle) saved up $200'000 cash. Similarly in Hamilton an average $534,860 house would require a $427'888 mortgage because you've already saved $106'972 in cash for your deposit. 80% of an Apple compared to 80% of an Apple.

 

At the end I relate this back to driving and parking which comes to $22'620 per year so yes, driving is at least a few k better off.

 

The main motivation for people living with this situation is the job market in Auckland is better so they're making these time sacrifices to advance their careers.


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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1848467 18-Aug-2017 11:21
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If we're really thinking future oriented, why are we having a daily commute into the city to do your job? 

 

Would remote working rather reduce that demand if we invested on that side of things?  

 

 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1848472 18-Aug-2017 11:28
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caminham:

 

kryptonjohn:

 

Hang on a minute - we were talking about people who currently drive from Hamilton to Auckland and whether they did their sums so let's not compare to using public transport just yet*.

 

Also if comparing apples to apples then either they own in the Tron and buy in Auckland or they rent either way. If they own then you don't need to fund into the comparison the whole 20% deposit in Auckland as the Tron place also has a deposit. If the annual mortgage payment in Auckland is around $57k and the annual Tron payment is $31k theres a $26k difference. So you are still worse off on a cash basis and that is before the loss of many hundreds of almost priceless hours.

 

* if you want to compare to public transport then as I said before, you cannot beat the $17 bus.

 

 

I'm not following... I've only factored in the 20% part as it relates to the size of your mortgage. i.e. To buy an average $1 million dollar house in Auckland you'd need a $800'000 mortgage because you already (by some miracle) saved up $200'000 cash. Similarly in Hamilton an average $534,860 house would require a $427'888 mortgage because you've already saved $106'972 in cash for your deposit. 80% of an Apple compared to 80% of an Apple.

 

At the end I relate this back to driving and parking which comes to $22'620 per year so yes, driving is at least a few k better off.

 

The main motivation for people living with this situation is the job market in Auckland is better so they're making these time sacrifices to advance their careers.

 

 

Mate if you're not following me then I probably stuffed up something along the way!

 

But what I meant is that comparing apples to apples your Akl guy needs $200k deposit but we're comparing to the Tron guy who also needs $106k deposit so the Auck guy is $94k down on the comparison not $200k. Overall there's no cashflow difference in the deposit difference but there is an overall use of money loss in Auckland (which may or may not be compensated by capital gain).

 

But then again if pay is higher then that's another factor that is just too complicated for a quick comparison model!

 

Cheers

 

JohnO

 

 

 

 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1848473 18-Aug-2017 11:29
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evnafets:

 

If we're really thinking future oriented, why are we having a daily commute into the city to do your job? 

 

Would remote working rather reduce that demand if we invested on that side of things?  

 

 

I practically could do my job from Ekatahuna, but I just couldn't stand the lack of personal interaction with my colleagues.

 

 


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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1848512 18-Aug-2017 12:29
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kryptonjohn:

 

Mate if you're not following me then I probably stuffed up something along the way!

 

But what I meant is that comparing apples to apples your Akl guy needs $200k deposit but we're comparing to the Tron guy who also needs $106k deposit so the Auck guy is $94k down on the comparison not $200k. Overall there's no cashflow difference in the deposit difference but there is an overall use of money loss in Auckland (which may or may not be compensated by capital gain).

 

But then again if pay is higher then that's another factor that is just too complicated for a quick comparison model!

 

 

Absolutely it's complicated. My quick calculations don't factor in getting the deposit in the first place (I remember a time when 0% was a thing but that would mean a larger mortgage), difference in other costs of living, plus a million other quality of life factors.


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1848522 18-Aug-2017 13:06
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Are you a pilot? Buy and old C152 and fly it from Te Kowhai to Ardmore and back - half an our each way cost you $100!

 

 


'That VDSL Cat'
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  Reply # 1848523 18-Aug-2017 13:11
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i travel auckland to Hamilton weekly currently, so for me personally this project is a great idea.

 

 

 

Driving each way is actually cheaper than a bus in my car, however this definitely is not the same for everyone.

 

While i don't really see the cost to benefit factor being all that high, more transport options are always good if they are priced reasonably...





#include <std_disclaimer>

 

Any comments made are personal opinion and do not reflect directly on the position my current or past employers may have.


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  Reply # 1848525 18-Aug-2017 13:12
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Rikkitic:

 

This kind of thing seems to work well enough in Europe.

 

 

Right. But you're not in Europe now, Dr @Rikkitic! In Europe they already have intra-city public transport that works. And Europe has a high enough population density (lots of 4-storey apartment blocks) to support it.

 

For example, when I lived in Zurich, intercity trains went at least once ever hour in each direction. There were also local trains that went maybe 2-3 times per hour out to the suburbs and smaller towns and stopped at all the stations. The train timetable was optimised (somewhat) to minimize waiting times (e.g. local trains arrived a few minutes before inter-city trains departed, and left a few minutes after inter-city trains arrived). Within Zurich, trams ran every 7 minutes on the busy lines, every 15 minutes on the less busy.

 

This all made a car pretty much unnecessary, and in some ways less convenient than trains. In a train you would be whisked from place to place at 130kph in a comfortable seat whilst enjoying a glass of wine and a good book (pre-Internet), with a damn good chance that you would arrive at your destination on time. No parking hassles, no traffic jams.

 

 


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  Reply # 1848529 18-Aug-2017 13:28
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kryptonjohn:

 

Are you a pilot? Buy and old C152 and fly it from Te Kowhai to Ardmore and back - half an our each way cost you $100!

 

 

I'm a pilot. And, generally speaking, I've found that flying GA is not a particularly good way to get places. You always end up at an airfield that is some distance from where you want to actually be, often with no public transport. Taxis totally wreck the economics. Not to mention the large annual fixed costs (hangarage, insurance) involved in owning a plane. And the uncertainty due to weather. And it's not half an hour each way; it's an hour getting the plane out of the hangar and refueled and out to the runway and taking off. And a quarter hour at the other end to taxi in and tie it down. And similar amounts of time on the return leg.

 

Don't get me wrong; I love flying, and flying to other places in NZ. But if I need to be in Auckland (or Hamilton or Tauranga) next Friday morning, I'll be going by AirNZ. Which still only gets me to the airport; I still want public transport to get from there to my destination.

 

 


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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1848531 18-Aug-2017 13:32
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Slightly off topic, but if more high density housing was built in the inner suburbs of Auckland the need for inter-city trains would diminish.

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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1848532 18-Aug-2017 13:34
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Everyone seems to be commenting on the efficacy of what is the third stage in the proposal, obviously the most expensive step, no one expects a deep dive straight into this stage. The first stage is what I'm interested in as it would be a trial run to test the waters and see if this service is viable.

 

 

 

 

Personally what I'm interested as someone who commuted from Buckland, Pukekohe via train to Britomart everyday is extending the southern line to Tuakau and Pokeno. Those queues at Drury could be greatly reduced by taking commuters off the road from these areas, which are growing very quickly.






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  Reply # 1848535 18-Aug-2017 13:37
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frankv:

 

Right. But you're not in Europe now, Dr @Rikkitic! In Europe they already have intra-city public transport that works. And Europe has a high enough population density (lots of 4-storey apartment blocks) to support it.

 

For example, when I lived in Zurich, intercity trains went at least once ever hour in each direction. There were also local trains that went maybe 2-3 times per hour out to the suburbs and smaller towns and stopped at all the stations. The train timetable was optimised (somewhat) to minimize waiting times (e.g. local trains arrived a few minutes before inter-city trains departed, and left a few minutes after inter-city trains arrived). Within Zurich, trams ran every 7 minutes on the busy lines, every 15 minutes on the less busy.

 

This all made a car pretty much unnecessary, and in some ways less convenient than trains. In a train you would be whisked from place to place at 130kph in a comfortable seat whilst enjoying a glass of wine and a good book (pre-Internet), with a damn good chance that you would arrive at your destination on time. No parking hassles, no traffic jams.

 

 

 

 

The point I am making is that ideas like this at least warrant looking at. Maybe the economics don't stack up for New Zealand. Or maybe it could be done with a different approach. I don't know, but why be so quick to dismiss it? Of course things like population density and the nature of the economy are very different, but it doesn't make sense to compare things on a country to country basis anyway. If you compare New Zealand you are also comparing South Island. Isn't it more sensible to ask what the population densities of Auckland, or Hamilton, or even Tauranga and surrounding areas are, as compared to Zurich?

 

How does Switzerland, which has a high wage economy, manage to pay for all those very expensive tunnels and other big infrastructure projects? We have a low wage economy, so at least it shouldn't cost us as much to run a train service as it would there. If you are going to start comparing these kinds of things, you have to compare the right things.

 

Thanks for the elevation of my title, by the way. Is that a doctor of philosophy, or sociology, or even medicine? 

 

 





I reject your reality and substitute my own. - Adam Savage
 


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