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mdf

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  #2003604 27-Apr-2018 15:32
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I'm in a similar position to the OP. Current car is getting on a bit and am starting to think about an upgrade. Being a geek, I am keen on something electric, but from what I've been able to find out, I am not sure that the current costs totally stack up. There's a lot of assumptions in this, so would be very keen to hear if I've done something wrong (since that would be the justification to Mrs MDF to go electric).

 

Our commute varies from day-to-day, but the max round trip for any day is about 35km and over the working week is about 100km all up. So well within the range of a Nissan Leaf. Comparing that against a similar hatchback:

 

Using Energy Wise website figures (which might be a bit out of date), it takes 15 kWh for a Nissan Leaf to drive 100 km. At 15 cents per kWh that's $2.25 a week in electricity (that probably needs an uplift for charging inefficiencies but I'll use that figure) = $120 per year. Energy Wise suggests a modern-ish Corolla will do the same distance in 8.5L. Our older Ford Focus would use 10.5. At $2.20 per litre that's $23 a week in petrol = $1200 per year.

 

Registration is $52 per year for a passenger car (excluding ACC levies, but I believe they have to be paid for BEVs too), vs 0 for the Leaf.

 

I pay $200-$300 a year to service our current car. Some years is higher (brake pads and discs), some lower. I would guess a more modern car will need less servicing. Most sites seem to claim that servicing costs for BEVs are near zero due to the mechanical simplicity, but I assume there has to be some cost for power steering fluid and brake pads, even if is is less. But again, assume zero.

 

It's hard to find figures, but the batteries in a BEV will deplete over time. The service doesn't seem available in NZ, but it's possible to swap batteries in the states for about NZD 7,000. I'm guessing that will come down by the time I need to do this, so say NZD5,000 maybe? Taking that over ten years is the equivalent of $500 per annum.

 

Tyres I am assuming will approximately be the same for both so nets out to zero.

 

So my maths makes it about $1550 ish per year for a petrol hatch (1200 petrol, 300 servicing, 50 registration) vs $620 ish for a BEV (120 electricity, 500 battery wear). For both, ACC and tyres need to be added to that.

 

Being generous, that makes the BEV $1000 per year cheaper to run (though I actually suspect a bit less than that).

 

Over maybe ten years, that stacks up to a $10,000 difference in purchase price (I'm sure there is some kind of future present value of money I should be taking into account too). Obviously the longer commute would favour the BEV more and more.

 

Just from google searches and dealer advertised prices, you can get a recent mid-spec 24KW model Nissan Leaf with a good battery state of health (85%+) for around the 25K mark. According to the specs, that only buys you twin airbags though. The ANCAP rating gives the Leaf 5 stars, but that is based on surround airbags. You need to go up to a G-spec level at more like 30K to get surrounds airbags.

 

For that kind of money, you can get a brand new Corolla with 7 airbags as standard. Even for the 18-20K-ish mark, all recent Corollas seem to have at least front and side airbags (though I've found that hard to confirm).

 

Is there something I've missed in this?


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  #2003610 27-Apr-2018 15:42
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@mdf, I think your analysis is as good as anything else I've seen as the unknowns are still... unknown.

 

I would love the silence, simplicity and environmental cleanness of an EV. However there are still quite a few problems for me. They are (apart from the extremely expensive options) quite small. Basically no chance of taking the family of 5 and bags away on vacation in one and just taking 5 out to dinner will create howls of rage in the back row. The range is limited as you say, to maybe a week. I could live with plugging it in each night but it's a problem for longer trips so the car would really only ever be a commuter and would still need a second car for weekends, long trips and towing. Yes you can stop for recharges on the way but who needs that hassle when en economical ICEV can go 1000km on a tank?

 

They're close, but not quite there yet. Would be a fantastic 3rd car option for us now that the oldest is driving, but far too expensive for that.

 

 


 
 
 
 




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  #2003612 27-Apr-2018 15:45
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mdf:

 

I pay $200-$300 a year to service our current car. Some years is higher (brake pads and discs), some lower. I would guess a more modern car will need less servicing. Most sites seem to claim that servicing costs for BEVs are near zero due to the mechanical simplicity, but I assume there has to be some cost for power steering fluid and brake pads, even if is is less. But again, assume zero.

 

 

Nice analysis.

 

I pay $442 inc GST to Nissan for the annual service. I'm only doing that until the end of the 5 year warranty, as I suspect they just hose down the engine and don't do a damn thing. A USA guy filmed a service not long ago, they didn't do anything except drive the car around.


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  #2003616 27-Apr-2018 15:47
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Where does engine wear fit in? ICE wear out. Use more fuel. Servicing turns into costly engine repairs. Does an EV engine not wear out t or wears out cheaply?

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  #2003618 27-Apr-2018 15:47
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Heh, you're cynical, @timmmay!

 

My annuals usually come out around $600 but large vehicles so things like engine and transmission fluids, brake pads etc cost a bit more.

 

Bit at least everything's itemised and I trust my guy did actually replace all the stuff.

 

 


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  #2003620 27-Apr-2018 15:50
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mdf:

 

Is there something I've missed in this?

 

 

From a pure $ POV EVs still don't stack up yet

 

from July Auckland's 11c petrol tax will help the equations up there,

 

But if demand for 2nd hand leafs starts outstripping demand , prices will continue to rise (tilting the balance back to ICEs)

 

 

 

 


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  #2003623 27-Apr-2018 15:51
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kryptonjohn:

 

I could live with plugging it in each night but it's a problem for longer trips so the car would really only ever be a commuter and would still need a second car for weekends, long trips and towing. Yes you can stop for recharges on the way but who needs that hassle when en economical ICEV can go 1000km on a tank?

 

 

I'm not convinced this is a valid issue. How often do you drive 1000kms without stopping? I'm sure your family of 5 (or even just 1 driver) would be wanting a break and to stretch their legs a bit before continuing on. Since you can charge up in 30 mins, you'd just stop off for a break/lunch near a charger: https://charge.net.nz/map/

 

Doing the road trip over summer I was amazed at how many charging stations there are. Even in the middle of nowhere between Napier and Taupo. 

 

I agree on the size though. I think it's coming though. Lots of manufacturers getting on the bandwagon. 


 
 
 
 


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  #2003624 27-Apr-2018 15:51
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tdgeek: Where does engine wear fit in? ICE wear out. Use more fuel. Servicing turns into costly engine repairs. Does an EV engine not wear out t or wears out cheaply?

 

Hardly any moving parts in an EV compared to an ICV. No pistons, valves, crankshafts, pumps, cooling system, fuel system, oil system. No transmission system at all! At service time I'm not sure what they would look at apart from brakes, tyres and steering. You do get a very expensive battery that degrades over time though. So I would expect it to wear out cheaply and predictably.


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  #2003636 27-Apr-2018 16:03
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Delphinus:

 

I'm not convinced this is a valid issue. How often do you drive 1000kms without stopping?

 

 

For fuel? For around town, I would go 800km without refuelling. For long trips, I would go 1000km. Obviously I stop in general a lot more but I don't stiop to wait around 30min - I stop because I'm done getting somewhere.

 

 

I'm sure your family of 5 (or even just 1 driver) would be wanting a break and to stretch their legs a bit before continuing on. Since you can charge up in 30 mins, you'd just stop off for a break/lunch near a charger: https://charge.net.nz/map/

 

 

Hell no! Unless the trip is > 4 hours I won't be stopping other than for the briefest pee, certainly not 30min. Yes the kids moan my dad made did the same to me so it's good enough for mine! :-D

 

 

Doing the road trip over summer I was amazed at how many charging stations there are. Even in the middle of nowhere between Napier and Taupo. 

 

I agree on the size though. I think it's coming though. Lots of manufacturers getting on the bandwagon. 

 

 

I have no doubt that within even a couple of years the options will be far better, and the prices of the current generation Leafs etc will fall through the floor.

 

[edit] This got me curious so downloaded last 12 months Z card transactions for the VW Touareg 3.0TDi - It only did 12800km, and used 1334L of diesel in 20 fills, so averaged 640km per average fill of 67L (max fill 80L) and 10.4L/100km. I thought I had a better habit of filling from empty to full! Not too bad for a big SUV mostly driving short trips around town, though. On longish drives like Akl - Taupo it will average 7.0L/100km according to the car computer.




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  #2003643 27-Apr-2018 16:13
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kryptonjohn:

 

Heh, you're cynical, @timmmay!

 

My annuals usually come out around $600 but large vehicles so things like engine and transmission fluids, brake pads etc cost a bit more.

 

Bit at least everything's itemised and I trust my guy did actually replace all the stuff.

 

 

Yep. They say what they claim to do. $140 in parts which was oil, filter assembly, cleaning supplies and little things, plus brake fluid, the rest labor. They said they changed the oil, cleaned the air filter, lubricate locks and hinges, the rest was all safety and status checks. Seems expensive for that.


mdf

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  #2003654 27-Apr-2018 16:22
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One of the better sets of information I found is here: https://samholford.github.io/leafguide/

 

Of particular note (to me at least) was that both fast charging the battery and keeping the battery at 100% wasn't good for it. So the practical range is potentially even less than the theoretical max.

 

For the regular commute, this was certainly manageable for me. However, there is no way I would take any kind of holiday with one. We are aiming to stay a one-car household, but I have family living local that I can sponge off/swap vehicles the next time we take a road trip (which doesn't happen often).

 

---//---

 

In terms of engine servicing, I've had pretty good luck with the mechanicals of all the cars I've owned and have never needed a super expensive rebuild or everything. That said, I do get the fluids etc. changed regularly and get it checked by a mechanic I trust. So prevention rather than cure (at least, that's what I tell myself).

 

While there is much less that can go wrong with an EV (other than the inevitable battery degradation), I would still guess there is a non-zero chance of something going seriously wrong. If you didn't buy it new, I don't think you will have much luck going back to the dealer on that side of things - though I could be wrong there and depends on timing.

 

---//---

 

One of the biggest factors I'm considering is safety. Touch wood, it will never be needed, but we've got kids and priorities have shifted ever since. Seems like there is much more value for money in the specification list with ICEs right now. That's probably just scale though, and I'm sure things will shift over time.

 

---//---

 

On the other hand, if I do come in to a sudden windfall, I will be on the Tesla website within minutes blowing that windfall. Deciding on the model S vs X will be the only hard bit.

 

I'm also currently fixing our garage up and am getting some wiring done as part of that. It will be super expensive to get three phase out there (I really wanted it), but will be getting the 15amp caravan plug installed against future potential needs.

 

Edit: making the link a link




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  #2003657 27-Apr-2018 16:33
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I've read the build quality of Tesla's isn't great. Give them five years to catch up with the industry, buy an established brand for now.

mdf

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  #2003663 27-Apr-2018 16:40
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From what I've read (and I have no evidence to back this up), the build quality on the Model 3 is a problem. Model S and X (especially S) have been around long enough to work the kinks out.


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  #2003670 27-Apr-2018 16:56
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timmmay:

kryptonjohn:


Our petrol guzzling '06 NZ new Toyota Prado cost us ~ $35k in 2011 and looks like it's still worth ~ $18k today. Only lost around half in 7 years. Toyotas are slow to write down to zero!



They do pretty well. A new Toyota is quite a bit more than the Nissan we got recently though.


 


DataCraft:


Whats your rego and mileage ill give u a eValuation on it if you want? 



Where do you get that from?



Not public facing but I have access to it.

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  #2003683 27-Apr-2018 17:31
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kryptonjohn:

 

For fuel? For around town, I would go 800km without refuelling. For long trips, I would go 1000km. Obviously I stop in general a lot more but I don't stiop to wait around 30min - I stop because I'm done getting somewhere.

 

 

 

 

So, uh, Whangarei to Wellington is just 800 kilometres. Nelson to Invercargill is just shy of 1,000. Do you often drive the length of the islands for holidays? Seems like huge waste of time to me.


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