Electric car total cost of ownership calculation

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#2004740 29-Apr-2018 21:27

Jase2985:

Batman:

hmmm Leaf is not gonna sell any cars lol

how wrong you will be

Given how production cannot keep up with sales, we cannot buy a new Leaf here. Australia has had it pushed out to maybe 2019.

It seems many are buying them.

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#2004757 29-Apr-2018 21:58

tdgeek:

Double or more? That seems steep. The talk is its about 10k more. There arent many choices though

2019 Leaf, suggested US$35000, 60kW, 360km range, that seems not bad. New car, 5 door, small-medium size.

2018 Leaf only US 23000 according to their website.

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#2004770 29-Apr-2018 22:20

Batman:

tdgeek:

Double or more? That seems steep. The talk is its about 10k more. There arent many choices though

2019 Leaf, suggested US$35000, 60kW, 360km range, that seems not bad. New car, 5 door, small-medium size.

2018 Leaf only US 23000 according to their website.

And? Don't follow

2019 Leaf, suggested US$35000, 60kW

2018 Leaf only US 23000

Can you clarify? Apart that I'm talking 2019 with a more than double sized battery, and not referring to the tax subsidies that they currently have, but won't forever.

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#2004860 30-Apr-2018 09:33

tdgeek:

Batman:

tdgeek:

Double or more? That seems steep. The talk is its about 10k more. There arent many choices though

2019 Leaf, suggested US$35000, 60kW, 360km range, that seems not bad. New car, 5 door, small-medium size.

2018 Leaf only US 23000 according to their website.

And? Don't follow

2019 Leaf, suggested US$35000, 60kW

2018 Leaf only US 23000

Can you clarify? Apart that I'm talking 2019 with a more than double sized battery, and not referring to the tax subsidies that they currently have, but won't forever.

The 2018 Leaf, which was actually released last year, has a 40 kWh battery and lots of them are now on sale on TradeMe as second hand imports for around $60,000.

I think next year's 60 kWh Leaf may be worth waiting for, not only because of its extra range, but also because I think it will have a battery thermal management system, which the 2018 Leaf sorely needs but doesn't have.

Also, it's not known yet whether the potential battery fast degradation problem of the 30 kWh Leaf may also affect the 40 kWh model, so it may pay to wait for more information about this.

So, because second-hand prices are an indication of what the 40 kWh Leaf might cost when they are sold as NZ-New by Nissan, I think it's safe to assume that they won't sell for much under $60,000, which is in line with what other NZ-New EVs are currently selling for (double the cost of a lot of good new petrol vehicles).

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#2004886 30-Apr-2018 09:55

I'm a little surprised/disappointed that one of the big players hasn't tried to position themselves into dominating the EV market.

It costs the manufacturer little to add a bit of fruit to their cars as standard rather than optional upgrades - stuff like leather seats, electric seats, area view cameras etc. Typically they make them options for marketing purposes to differentiate their luxury models, add up-sell revenue etc. But the EVs still look a little basic to me - even the now better optioned 2018 Leafs are kinda basic compared to the Qashkai which is about $15k cheaper.

You'd think one of them would make a concerted effort in the EV market to smash down the door with a little less profit per unit in order to get a dominant brand in the EV space. Nissan are sleep walking (in NZ) with the Leaf. Toyota are the sleeping giant. Hyundai Ioniq looks nice but I don't think I've ever even seen one on the road.

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#2004903 30-Apr-2018 10:17

frednz:

The 2018 Leaf, which was actually released last year, has a 40 kWh battery and lots of them are now on sale on TradeMe as second hand imports for around $60,000.

I think next year's 60 kWh Leaf may be worth waiting for, not only because of its extra range, but also because I think it will have a battery thermal management system, which the 2018 Leaf sorely needs but doesn't have.

Also, it's not known yet whether the potential battery fast degradation problem of the 30 kWh Leaf may also affect the 40 kWh model, so it may pay to wait for more information about this.

So, because second-hand prices are an indication of what the 40 kWh Leaf might cost when they are sold as NZ-New by Nissan, I think it's safe to assume that they won't sell for much under $60,000, which is in line with what other NZ-New EVs are currently selling for (double the cost of a lot of good new petrol vehicles).

If a second hand 40KW Leaf sells for 60k on Trademe, then a new 40KW one is say 80k, and a new 60KW is say 95k. Doesnt seem right when US35k is expected RRP for the 60KW

plod

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#2004905 30-Apr-2018 10:19

kryptonjohn:
I'm a little surprised/disappointed that one of the big players hasn't tried to position themselves into dominating the EV market.

It costs the manufacturer little to add a bit of fruit to their cars as standard rather than optional upgrades - stuff like leather seats, electric seats, area view cameras etc. Typically they make them options for marketing purposes to differentiate their luxury models, add up-sell revenue etc. But the EVs still look a little basic to me - even the now better optioned 2018 Leafs are kinda basic compared to the Qashkai which is about $15k cheaper.

You'd think one of them would make a concerted effort in the EV market to smash down the door with a little less profit per unit in order to get a dominant brand in the EV space. Nissan are sleep walking (in NZ) with the Leaf. Toyota are the sleeping giant. Hyundai Ioniq looks nice but I don't think I've ever even seen one on the road.

toyota doesn’t believe the current systems are viable in the future. Much like Honda, Toyota are looking mainly towards hydrogen fuel cell. Their hybrid technology is the way they are going in mean time. Sounds like Mazda have a similar attitude of announcing they would introduce a EV into a market where electricity isn’t produced from renewable resources instead concentrating on making ice more efficient.

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#2004908 30-Apr-2018 10:22

frankv:

https://www.engineering.com/Portals/0/Stories/-36033/EV%20Total%20Cost%20of%20Ownership%20Analysis.xlsx

American default values.

I downloaded it and plugged in what I thought would be fairly appropriate...

Purchase Price: is based on second-hand cars advertised on TradeMe. I didn't add in anything for getting 3-phase power to my garage.

Resale price: Who knows? Just write the cars off after 5 years.

Fuel costs: is 30c/KWh, 24KWh battery, 135km for Leaf, $2/L, 10L/100km for Corolla

Total distance: 5 years at 20,000/year

Borrowed amount: The entire purchase price in both cases

Interest rate: 5.65% offered by Kiwibank Home loan over 4 years

Insurance cost: I couldn't be bothered getting prices, so I arbitrarily used the total cost of each vehicle, just because the template did that.

Maintenance & Repairs: I just accepted the default $7000 value for the ICE. Who knows how realistic that is? From that, I subracted 10 (1 per 10,000km) oil changes at $100 each to get the EV maintenance cost. Probably I should also subtract spark plugs and some other stuff.

Subsidies: I didn't explicitly include the free RUC currently available for EVs, and just assume that those continue for the next 5 years.

$3K difference seems a pitiful advantage, though the Corolla was $8K less to buy!

MarkH67

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#2005265 30-Apr-2018 15:34

tdgeek:

If a second hand 40KW Leaf sells for 60k on Trademe, then a new 40KW one is say 80k, and a new 60KW is say 95k. Doesnt seem right when US35k is expected RRP for the 60KW

On Trademe you can get a brand new 40kWh Leaf for $53k, $60k for a 2nd hand one is a rip-off IMO.

I don't believe that anyone has ever offered up any new 40kWh Leaf for $80k, they don't go for that much.

A 60kWh Leaf will be dearer though, I'd guess $70k-$75k initially. What sort of price a 2nd hand Japanese import would cost after a year - surely closer to what the 40kWh cars are currently selling for.

Jase2985

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#2005274 30-Apr-2018 15:41

MarkH67:

tdgeek:

If a second hand 40KW Leaf sells for 60k on Trademe, then a new 40KW one is say 80k, and a new 60KW is say 95k. Doesnt seem right when US35k is expected RRP for the 60KW

On Trademe you can get a brand new 40kWh Leaf for $53k, $60k for a 2nd hand one is a rip-off IMO.

TBH most on trademe are closer to the 60k mark

tripper1000

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#2005635 1-May-2018 09:08

I think your projections as to how much the 60Kw will cost could be a little be off - the up-rated Leaf's haven't been proportionately more based on their battery size in the past have they?

Also looking at the current year Leaf you are going to see higher prices in NZ than the USA/UK/Japan because they advertise government subsidised prices in those jurisdictions. In most jurisdictions the initial owner has to keep the vehicle for a prescribed amount of time or loose the subsidy and paid full price. So when you buy a 2018 Leaf in NZ you pay full undiscounted retail, but when you buy an older Jap/UK import Leaf, the original owner got it cheaper (via subsidy), so sells it cheaper and you are effectively enjoying a subsidy from a foreign government.

kryptonjohn

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#2005645 1-May-2018 09:15

Interesting. Roughly how much is the subsidy and what's the expiry period - anybody know?

tripper1000

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#2005655 1-May-2018 09:26

Google is your friend. Heaps out there to read.

Here is an article on it: http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/94376/what-is-the-uk-plug-in-car-grant

It also has in interesting spiel on hi depreciation on new EV's in the UK, which highlights further why being patient and not buying the current years model is financially advantageous.

tdgeek

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#2005663 1-May-2018 09:39

Tks for the link. I dont get it. The grant is only 2500, I cant see how that avoids significantly more expensive or prohibitively more expensive

Its 2500, not 15000.

But if they depreciate 80% in 3 years, and the EV engine effectively doesn't wear like an ICE, a 3yo EV is the bargain of the century, and a 1yo or 2yo will also be a great buy. Its like getting a used ICE with 280,000km on the clock but you dont get that woith an EV, its used woith regular mileage and little if any wear. Battery level down a bit yes

Full-electric cars like the Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe would be significantly more expensive than equivalent petrol or diesel family hatchbacks and superminis were it not for the reduction in price provided by the plug-in car grant. They also suffer from very heavy depreciation, with the Nissan Leaf retaining only 20% of its value after three years/36,000 miles, so total running costs could become prohibitively expensive were it not for the grant.

kryptonjohn

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#2005731 1-May-2018 10:20

tripper1000:

Google is your friend. Heaps out there to read.

Here is an article on it: http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/94376/what-is-the-uk-plug-in-car-grant

It also has in interesting spiel on hi depreciation on new EV's in the UK, which highlights further why being patient and not buying the current years model is financially advantageous.

But all the Leafs (Leaves? LOL) I've seen are ex Japan based on the character set on the display.

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