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4093 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2095528 24-Sep-2018 14:12
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tdgeek:

 

They need to give more details soon otherwise it will freeze sales

 

 

EV sales growth may have already peaked.

 

https://www.transport.govt.nz/resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics/monthly-electric-and-hybrid-light-vehicle-registrations/

 

I'm not expecting anything in the next 6 months, .

 

But they will need to have a really short time between announcing actual details and implementation as that will halt sales.....

 

 

 

 

 

 


18103 posts

Uber Geek

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  # 2095530 24-Sep-2018 14:15
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Dinga96:

 

tdgeek:

 

Dinga96:

 

Poor ole Labour and the Greens must be in a real pickle.They have been so slow to announce any help for people to own an ev.Yet now it seems they have no choice because they will look ridiculous at the world summit telling other countries to get their act together and stop dragging the chain, when in reality this is exactly what they are doing themselves.

 

 

You are in the wrong thread

 

 

No this is the right thread alright.

 

 

I bet it is too actually...


 
 
 
 


2989 posts

Uber Geek

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  # 2095533 24-Sep-2018 14:20
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networkn:

 

tdgeek:

 

Initially low, maybe no taxes, that's probably part of the incentive.

 

 

Great, so the majority of NZ will subsidise them, seems fair. 

 

 

Presumably the Govt has done (or will do) the math so that the cost of incentives is balanced by the reduction in cost to the taxpayer of mitigating the effect of burning fossil fuels. So, in point of fact, the EV users won't be subsidising the petrol fuel drivers.

 

 


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Uber Geek

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  # 2095534 24-Sep-2018 14:21
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wellygary:

 

tdgeek:

 

They need to give more details soon otherwise it will freeze sales

 

 

EV sales growth may have already peaked.

 

https://www.transport.govt.nz/resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics/monthly-electric-and-hybrid-light-vehicle-registrations/

 

I'm not expecting anything in the next 6 months, .

 

But they will need to have a really short time between announcing actual details and implementation as that will halt sales.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It seems that way. Those that want, have now bought. If the target is cars, over medium/heavy commercial, the prime incentive has to be upfront cost, so that will be interesting. Its difficult to see an upfront financial assist adding much incentive unless it is large, and it wont be. 


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  # 2095535 24-Sep-2018 14:22
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frankv:

 

Presumably the Govt has done (or will do) the math so that the cost of incentives is balanced by the reduction in cost to the taxpayer of mitigating the effect of burning fossil fuels. So, in point of fact, the EV users won't be subsidising the petrol fuel drivers.

 

 

I wouldn't bet my house on it!

 

 


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Uber Geek

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  # 2095536 24-Sep-2018 14:24
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tdgeek:

 

It seems that way. Those that want, have now bought. If the target is cars, over medium/heavy commercial, the prime incentive has to be upfront cost, so that will be interesting. Its difficult to see an upfront financial assist adding much incentive unless it is large, and it wont be. 

 

 

I imagine not. Given it's about a 50% "premium" buying EV over ICE in the same model right now, or more in fact (The new E-Tron Audi in NZ will be around 240K apparently over the 3 Series SUV which is less than half that). Even if they gave 10K, it's pretty unlikely there will be significant uptake on that alone.

 

 

 

 


1382 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2095541 24-Sep-2018 14:28
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I would trade in my Mini for a Leaf, but given the significant difference in capability and range, it would have to be a pretty hefty subsidy.

 

Luckily market forces are doing that for us already and the prices seem to be dropping with each month.  

 

I'd rather wait until there is an active market for things like people movers that aren't Teslas and aren't $120,000 by default. Otherwise you just end up transferring money to people who don't really need government assistance. 


 
 
 
 


4093 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2095542 24-Sep-2018 14:30
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frankv:

 

Presumably the Govt has done (or will do) the math so that the cost of incentives is balanced by the reduction in cost to the taxpayer of mitigating the effect of burning fossil fuels. So, in point of fact, the EV users won't be subsidising the petrol fuel drivers.

 

 

liquid fossil fuel users already pay an  emissions costs...  they became part of the ETS in 2010,  and the 2:1 transition will be complete on 1 Jan 2019... ( its currently 83%)

 

Now whether you believe the ETS price is correct is another matter, but fossil fuel users are paying as much contribution against climate change as most other sector users are ...

 

The government is essentially only paying for the Agricutural sector which remains outside the ETS


1457 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2095543 24-Sep-2018 14:32
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sbiddle:

 

I'm already subsidising EV vehicle owners. I'll be unhappy subsidising them further.

 

You can't keep giving EV owners greater subsidies and trying to recoup the cost of roads from petrol and diesel vehicle owners.

 

 

So you're upset that this incentive scheme aimed at getting people to buy EVs instead of fossil fuel vehicles might make driving fossil fuel vehicles less attractive?

 

 


18103 posts

Uber Geek

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  # 2095544 24-Sep-2018 14:32
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networkn:

 

tdgeek:

 

It seems that way. Those that want, have now bought. If the target is cars, over medium/heavy commercial, the prime incentive has to be upfront cost, so that will be interesting. Its difficult to see an upfront financial assist adding much incentive unless it is large, and it wont be. 

 

 

I imagine not. Given it's about a 50% "premium" buying EV over ICE in the same model right now, or more in fact (The new E-Tron Audi in NZ will be around 240K apparently over the 3 Series SUV which is less than half that). Even if they gave 10K, it's pretty unlikely there will be significant uptake on that alone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I thought it was more like 25k to 30k? I'm looking at standard new cars admittedly as they will hold more market share by volume than upmarket.

 

IMHO I feel the growth will be the left of a bell curve with a long left leg. This isn't analogue to digital TV, its a major purchase. As per my earlier post if you loaned interest free a good amount, thats a lot cheaper than throwing away $10k+ which is the global norm. If you can buy then, and pay back, and be better off fuel wise its a worthwhile option. Saving every week from day one. Import a lot of used Leaf type EV's too. Maybe that will kickstart something


4093 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2095550 24-Sep-2018 14:40
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GV27:

 

Otherwise you just end up transferring money to people who don't really need government assistance. 

 

 

That's the kicker,  you cannot buy a new BEV in NZ for less than 60K, also the prime EV market is as a second car for urban use, and multiple car household are predominantly higher income ones....


87 posts

Master Geek


  # 2095565 24-Sep-2018 14:46
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When the announcement is made sooner rather than later now it would appear, we have a slight problem.

 

No actual EVs!

 

I can see a lot of people going on the waiting list.

 

I think this happened just after WWII ,and now it's about to happen all over again.


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Uber Geek

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  # 2095569 24-Sep-2018 14:51
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On reflection its like Solar PV. Long payback, hard to justify, a home battery is even worse. Like EV you are paying now for future fuel. Maybe its just wait till the premium reduces, when they get all their R+D back. A new ICE engine and transmission is I guess maybe 15k. New EV has 20 moving parts, it must be a lot cheaper to manufacture, and there is no transmission. Plus off course the battery packs. It shpould not be that much more costly if no R+D is included


4093 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2095573 24-Sep-2018 14:53
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Dinga96:

 

I can see a lot of people going on the waiting list.

 

I think this happened just after WWII ,and now it's about to happen all over again.

 

 

Don't worry,  long waiting lists is something this government is good at... 

 

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/361105/thousands-sign-up-for-kiwibuild-in-first-day

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/104645761/public-housing-waiting-list-surges-8108-awaiting-homes-in-april

 

 


664 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  # 2095575 24-Sep-2018 14:53
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Silly (but genuine) question – what's to stop the likes of Tesla increasing the price of their vehicles by whatever amount the subsidy provides?

 

Eg. Government says "here's a $15,000 cheque with which to buy an EV", Tesla just puts up their prices by $15k per model?

 

(Assuming they are happy/content with current sales levels which I imagine they are due to the Model 3 production delays/restraints).


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