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647 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2259683 17-Jun-2019 19:12
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tdgeek:

 

There is no EV equivalent for my use case. I can afford an economical new car say a Kona at $40k, I can't afford an $80k Kona. These two scenarios are not because an EV is unappealing. When EV supply is plenty, and prices have eased, and there are many models, then you could look at targeting ICE that has an EV equivalent. Anything other and you are penalising people who have no choice. That will go down well with voters, who will vote that out. It would be fairer to have a Climate Change tax. After all why penalise ICE when we all use goods that created greenhouse gases. Again, voters will love that. 

 

 

I really don't have any sympathy for that.  We're all going to have to make changes to improve the climate change situation and if that means someone needs to reconsider their transportation methods or pay to counter their impact, so be it.  We're nearing the point of no return and these are the changes we need to start making now to prevent that happening.  Politically, I think we're getting to the point where if either party introduced some serious climate change policy the other won't be removing it.

 

Out of curiosity, what is your use case that there is no EV for?


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  #2259691 17-Jun-2019 19:50
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

There is no EV equivalent for my use case. I can afford an economical new car say a Kona at $40k, I can't afford an $80k Kona. These two scenarios are not because an EV is unappealing. When EV supply is plenty, and prices have eased, and there are many models, then you could look at targeting ICE that has an EV equivalent. Anything other and you are penalising people who have no choice. That will go down well with voters, who will vote that out. It would be fairer to have a Climate Change tax. After all why penalise ICE when we all use goods that created greenhouse gases. Again, voters will love that. 

 

 

I really don't have any sympathy for that.  We're all going to have to make changes to improve the climate change situation and if that means someone needs to reconsider their transportation methods or pay to counter their impact, so be it.  We're nearing the point of no return and these are the changes we need to start making now to prevent that happening.  Politically, I think we're getting to the point where if either party introduced some serious climate change policy the other won't be removing it.

 

Out of curiosity, what is your use case that there is no EV for?

 

 

OK, so you would like the ICE tax to start now? But I cant buy an EV now, there are none around. I cant drive a waiting list. There are none that I can tow my horse with, or my boat. Or my full, caged trailer. I have or have had all those. Plus lets say I can afford new but I cant afford a new EV. So you will tax me, so that you get a cash bonus for buying your EV? Id be a bit annoyed, so I'll just buy a near new ICE and zero funding for your subsidy. If a new car is say 40k, plus whatever tax, many would buy near new. Our last car we bought at 18,000 km, 6 months old. Most would do that. The problem is you want a subsidy, but you are nit giving us the benefit as paying you 10k is a poor investment for the CO2 you won't emit. Although your batteries emitted 2 tonne at manufacturer.

 

You will get little tax as we sell about 160,000 new cars each year. If you tax all those, and use 10 ICE to subsidise 1 EV, thats 16000 EV who will get a subsidy. Each year the same 160,000 sales will happen, yet more and more of these will be EV, so your 10:1 subsidy will run dry. What then? 

 

I agree we need to make changes now. It will take decades for EV's to become dominant, i.e. 90% of vehicles. Decades. Decades isn't now.

 

What about other green moves that will give us emissions benefits sooner?


 
 
 
 


1711 posts

Uber Geek


  #2259696 17-Jun-2019 19:57
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

There is no EV equivalent for my use case. I can afford an economical new car say a Kona at $40k, I can't afford an $80k Kona. These two scenarios are not because an EV is unappealing. When EV supply is plenty, and prices have eased, and there are many models, then you could look at targeting ICE that has an EV equivalent. Anything other and you are penalising people who have no choice. That will go down well with voters, who will vote that out. It would be fairer to have a Climate Change tax. After all why penalise ICE when we all use goods that created greenhouse gases. Again, voters will love that. 

 

 

I really don't have any sympathy for that.  We're all going to have to make changes to improve the climate change situation and if that means someone needs to reconsider their transportation methods or pay to counter their impact, so be it.  We're nearing the point of no return and these are the changes we need to start making now to prevent that happening.  Politically, I think we're getting to the point where if either party introduced some serious climate change policy the other won't be removing it.

 

Out of curiosity, what is your use case that there is no EV for?

 

 

There is no political will to make changes.  We are not anywhere near the point where things will change politically.  To make a hard decision will consign this NZ First led Government to being a 1-term government and neither NZ First nor Labour want to see that happen.  So anything that is for the greater good will be vetoed by the co-Prime Minister as it will affect his voters.  Self interest, as always, will be the winner.  




1288 posts

Uber Geek


  #2259698 17-Jun-2019 20:01
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tdgeek:

 

There is no EV equivalent for my use case. I can afford an economical new car say a Kona at $40k, I can't afford an $80k Kona. These two scenarios are not because an EV is unappealing. When EV supply is plenty, and prices have eased, and there are many models, then you could look at targeting ICE that has an EV equivalent. Anything other and you are penalising people who have no choice. That will go down well with voters, who will vote that out. It would be fairer to have a Climate Change tax. After all why penalise ICE when we all use goods that created greenhouse gases. Again, voters will love that. 

 

 

It's true that you have to pay $84,000 for an Elite 64 kWh Kona (or $78,000 for the entry level model), but you need to remember that this gives you a very good range of up to 482 km. 

 

Now, if you want a new EV with less range, they cost a lot less. For example, the new Nissan 40 kWh Leaf has a range of about 250 km and costs about $60,000.

 

So, if you want a NZ-new EV and want to do your bit to save the planet, perhaps the 40 kWh Leaf may be more within your price range? In other words, do you really need 64 kWh and 482km of range?


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  #2259699 17-Jun-2019 20:04
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ockel:

 

Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

There is no EV equivalent for my use case. I can afford an economical new car say a Kona at $40k, I can't afford an $80k Kona. These two scenarios are not because an EV is unappealing. When EV supply is plenty, and prices have eased, and there are many models, then you could look at targeting ICE that has an EV equivalent. Anything other and you are penalising people who have no choice. That will go down well with voters, who will vote that out. It would be fairer to have a Climate Change tax. After all why penalise ICE when we all use goods that created greenhouse gases. Again, voters will love that. 

 

 

I really don't have any sympathy for that.  We're all going to have to make changes to improve the climate change situation and if that means someone needs to reconsider their transportation methods or pay to counter their impact, so be it.  We're nearing the point of no return and these are the changes we need to start making now to prevent that happening.  Politically, I think we're getting to the point where if either party introduced some serious climate change policy the other won't be removing it.

 

Out of curiosity, what is your use case that there is no EV for?

 

 

There is no political will to make changes.  We are not anywhere near the point where things will change politically.  To make a hard decision will consign this NZ First led Government to being a 1-term government and neither NZ First nor Labour want to see that happen.  So anything that is for the greater good will be vetoed by the co-Prime Minister as it will affect his voters.  Self interest, as always, will be the winner.  

 

 

And what if National was in power? If we divert funds to pay EV buyers $10,000  or we tax all new ICE cars the voters will be happy? Not sure. Both Govts want positive green things to happen that do not incur a cost to voters, and dont cut funds to education, health and so on

 

Ive had suggestions that dont involve losing Govt funds, but add benefits to buyers which would add more EV's but no one has shown any interest. It seems its all about the free 10k subsidy.


647 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2259706 17-Jun-2019 20:07
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tdgeek:

 

OK, so you would like the ICE tax to start now? But I cant buy an EV now, there are none around. I cant drive a waiting list. There are none that I can tow my horse with, or my boat. Or my full, caged trailer. I have or have had all those. Plus lets say I can afford new but I cant afford a new EV. So you will tax me, so that you get a cash bonus for buying your EV? Id be a bit annoyed, so I'll just buy a near new ICE and zero funding for your subsidy. If a new car is say 40k, plus whatever tax, many would buy near new. Our last car we bought at 18,000 km, 6 months old. Most would do that. The problem is you want a subsidy, but you are nit giving us the benefit as paying you 10k is a poor investment for the CO2 you won't emit. Although your batteries emitted 2 tonne at manufacturer.

 

You will get little tax as we sell about 160,000 new cars each year. If you tax all those, and use 10 ICE to subsidise 1 EV, thats 16000 EV who will get a subsidy. Each year the same 160,000 sales will happen, yet more and more of these will be EV, so your 10:1 subsidy will run dry. What then? 

 

I agree we need to make changes now. It will take decades for EV's to become dominant, i.e. 90% of vehicles. Decades. Decades isn't now.

 

What about other green moves that will give us emissions benefits sooner?

 

 

Yep, that's what I said, start it now :) A Model X would happily tow your horse float and your caged trailer.

 

You mention buying a used vehicle as if it's a bad thing and I should be upset by that.  It's not as good as buying an EV, no, but it's still a lot better than buying a brand new ICE vehicle from a climate POV (assuming it's not a 20 y/o beater).  The EV subsidy isn't meant to be a forever thing, it's only meant to last long enough to cover this current period where EV prices are inflated by R&D costs of this new technology.  The costs of EVs will naturally come down in price over the next few years and as such, the need for a subsidy will reduce.

 

Of course it's going to take time to replace the fleet but we can't just sit on our hands waiting "for the right moment".  Doing something now is better than doing nothing at all.




1288 posts

Uber Geek


  #2259727 17-Jun-2019 20:41
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Now look what happened in Sweden recently when the Government increased grants for electric cars - sales went up by a massive 253% in the first 5 months of the year. This proves once again that buyers of EVs are definitely influenced by Government incentives and we must get these going here if we want to increase EV uptake.

 

But, hopefully when we do get a good increase in EV sales here, we will have the capacity for the necessary electricity without having to use any coal to generate it. In some cities in Sweden, demand for electricity is outgrowing capacity.

 

Quote from article linked to above:

 

Sweden’s ambitious plan to drastically cut emissions from transport by bringing millions of electric cars onto the road could be derailed by a lack of power capacity for new charging stations in major cities.

 

An increase in government grants sent sales of electric cars surging by 253% in the first five months this year, but the rally could be over before it’s really started. Demand for electricity in Stockholm and other cities is outgrowing capacity in local grids, forcing new charging networks to compete with other projects from housing to subway lines to get hooked up.

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


19030 posts

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  #2259732 17-Jun-2019 20:48
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

OK, so you would like the ICE tax to start now? But I cant buy an EV now, there are none around. I cant drive a waiting list. There are none that I can tow my horse with, or my boat. Or my full, caged trailer. I have or have had all those. Plus lets say I can afford new but I cant afford a new EV. So you will tax me, so that you get a cash bonus for buying your EV? Id be a bit annoyed, so I'll just buy a near new ICE and zero funding for your subsidy. If a new car is say 40k, plus whatever tax, many would buy near new. Our last car we bought at 18,000 km, 6 months old. Most would do that. The problem is you want a subsidy, but you are nit giving us the benefit as paying you 10k is a poor investment for the CO2 you won't emit. Although your batteries emitted 2 tonne at manufacturer.

 

You will get little tax as we sell about 160,000 new cars each year. If you tax all those, and use 10 ICE to subsidise 1 EV, thats 16000 EV who will get a subsidy. Each year the same 160,000 sales will happen, yet more and more of these will be EV, so your 10:1 subsidy will run dry. What then? 

 

I agree we need to make changes now. It will take decades for EV's to become dominant, i.e. 90% of vehicles. Decades. Decades isn't now.

 

What about other green moves that will give us emissions benefits sooner?

 

 

Yep, that's what I said, start it now :) A Model X would happily tow your horse float and your caged trailer.

 

You mention buying a used vehicle as if it's a bad thing and I should be upset by that.  It's not as good as buying an EV, no, but it's still a lot better than buying a brand new ICE vehicle from a climate POV (assuming it's not a 20 y/o beater).  The EV subsidy isn't meant to be a forever thing, it's only meant to last long enough to cover this current period where EV prices are inflated by R&D costs of this new technology.  The costs of EVs will naturally come down in price over the next few years and as such, the need for a subsidy will reduce.

 

Of course it's going to take time to replace the fleet but we can't just sit on our hands waiting "for the right moment".  Doing something now is better than doing nothing at all.

 

 

So, I was looking at a Kona, 40k for the ICE, 80k for the EV. But to tow I need a base X at $144k? :-)  Thats getting slightly ridiculous. Perhaps a Rivian is cheaper. Still expensive for what it is.

 

Why is a near new used ICE not as good as an EV? Say its a Kona. Its $30k. EV is $80k. I would therefore spend $50,000 to save how much emissions per year? Thats is the problem with your idea, individuals will pay a huge amount of cash to save a minimal amount of emissions. Now, all emissions matter, but for me to pay $50,000 to save these? Financially thats exceedingly inefficient. 

 

I expect it will take 30 years minimum to replace the fleet. Say we sell 5000 in 2019. Thats less than a microscopic dust in a big bucket emissions wise. We need bigger savings sooner. IF you want to attack climate change now. 




1288 posts

Uber Geek


  #2259738 17-Jun-2019 20:57
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tdgeek:

 

So, I was looking at a Kona, 40k for the ICE, 80k for the EV. But to tow I need a base X at $144k? :-)  Thats getting slightly ridiculous. Perhaps a Rivian is cheaper. Still expensive for what it is.

 

Why is a near new used ICE not as good as an EV? Say its a Kona. Its $30k. EV is $80k. I would therefore spend $50,000 to save how much emissions per year? Thats is the problem with your idea, individuals will pay a huge amount of cash to save a minimal amount of emissions. Now, all emissions matter, but for me to pay $50,000 to save these? Financially thats exceedingly inefficient. 

 

 

I think you need to get NZ-new EV vs ICE prices a bit more in proportion and on a better comparative basis. It's perhaps going a bit overboard to say you need to pay $50,000 extra to get a NZ-new EV compared with the equivalent ICE vehicle. For a Kona, it's around $40,000 extra.

 

But, as I mentioned in a recent post, Nissan NZ has announced that you will shortly be able to buy a NZ-new EV for $60,000, so instead of waving around a huge figure like $50,000, perhaps these days $20,000 extra may be more reasonable.


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  #2259740 17-Jun-2019 21:06
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frednz:

 

Now look what happened in Sweden recently when the Government increased grants for electric cars - sales went up by a massive 253% in the first 5 months of the year. This proves once again that buyers of EVs are definitely influenced by Government incentives and we must get these going here if we want to increase EV uptake.

 

But, hopefully when we do get a good increase in EV sales here, we will have the capacity for the necessary electricity without having to use any coal to generate it. In some cities in Sweden, demand for electricity is outgrowing capacity.

 

Quote from article linked to above:

 

Sweden’s ambitious plan to drastically cut emissions from transport by bringing millions of electric cars onto the road could be derailed by a lack of power capacity for new charging stations in major cities.

 

An increase in government grants sent sales of electric cars surging by 253% in the first five months this year, but the rally could be over before it’s really started. Demand for electricity in Stockholm and other cities is outgrowing capacity in local grids, forcing new charging networks to compete with other projects from housing to subway lines to get hooked up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

253% on a small number? Registrations tells me they have about 3 X more new cars each year than NZ. 

 

Sweden does suit low distance travelling. From what I can gather, they are subsidising a maximum of 25% of the car price. Norway has a very hgh subsidy, making an EV a similar price to the ICE. Take the Kona here. The 40k ICE Kona. The EV is 80k, so Norways gives you say 35k subsidy. Sweden up to 20k subsidy. 

 

If there was a 25% subsidy Im not surprised sales are great, although only 6600 for 5 months. About 1/5, so a good result. But how would NZ pay for $20,000 subsidy on a base car such as a Kona? 


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  #2259749 17-Jun-2019 21:14
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frednz:

 

tdgeek:

 

There is no EV equivalent for my use case. I can afford an economical new car say a Kona at $40k, I can't afford an $80k Kona. These two scenarios are not because an EV is unappealing. When EV supply is plenty, and prices have eased, and there are many models, then you could look at targeting ICE that has an EV equivalent. Anything other and you are penalising people who have no choice. That will go down well with voters, who will vote that out. It would be fairer to have a Climate Change tax. After all why penalise ICE when we all use goods that created greenhouse gases. Again, voters will love that. 

 

 

It's true that you have to pay $84,000 for an Elite 64 kWh Kona (or $78,000 for the entry level model), but you need to remember that this gives you a very good range of up to 482 km. 

 

Now, if you want a new EV with less range, they cost a lot less. For example, the new Nissan 40 kWh Leaf has a range of about 250 km and costs about $60,000.

 

So, if you want a NZ-new EV and want to do your bit to save the planet, perhaps the 40 kWh Leaf may be more within your price range? In other words, do you really need 64 kWh and 482km of range?

 

 

What you seem too be saying, is to encourage me to buy a lesser car than I want? As a car, Kona is fine. It's ok. So Id get that. But you suggest I should just get a Leaf as thats cheaper? I told Mr OB I have a horse etc,  and he said I need to get a Tesla X. How many people will go from a car that does what they need it to do, to near on 150k to replace it? Or a 40k new car is now 80k? Will 10k cash get you over the line for an 80k Kona or a Tesla X?

 

I just can't see the numbers in lil ol NZ. If we gave you 20k for true EV, what is the savings of emissions per dollar? It seems we could save more elsewhere.  


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2259751 17-Jun-2019 21:17
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You're bringing much wealthier countries to the debate here, so that's not a good comparison, is it?

 

I don't see the cost as a barrier, there are people who can't wait to get their Tesla model 3, if I was in the market it would be a consideration. Kona's are on order for many, and other models are starting to enter the market. Do you honestly not think that uptake will increase with these changes? Already I see EVs commonly, especially the Leaf variants. 

 

Currently, the subsidy, of no RUCs further extends the running cost when compared with ICE equivalent, perhaps when that disappears new incentives need to be looked at? 


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  #2259760 17-Jun-2019 21:29
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NzBeagle:

 

You're bringing much wealthier countries to the debate here, so that's not a good comparison, is it?

 

I don't see the cost as a barrier, there are people who can't wait to get their Tesla model 3, if I was in the market it would be a consideration. Kona's are on order for many, and other models are starting to enter the market. Do you honestly not think that uptake will increase with these changes? Already I see EVs commonly, especially the Leaf variants. 

 

Currently, the subsidy, of no RUCs further extends the running cost when compared with ICE equivalent, perhaps when that disappears new incentives need to be looked at? 

 

 

I agree. We are selling EV's already. There are waiting lists, they sell themselves.




1288 posts

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  #2259768 17-Jun-2019 21:35
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tdgeek:

 

NzBeagle:

 

You're bringing much wealthier countries to the debate here, so that's not a good comparison, is it?

 

I don't see the cost as a barrier, there are people who can't wait to get their Tesla model 3, if I was in the market it would be a consideration. Kona's are on order for many, and other models are starting to enter the market. Do you honestly not think that uptake will increase with these changes? Already I see EVs commonly, especially the Leaf variants. 

 

Currently, the subsidy, of no RUCs further extends the running cost when compared with ICE equivalent, perhaps when that disappears new incentives need to be looked at? 

 

 

I agree. We are selling EV's already. There are waiting lists, they sell themselves.

 

 

Not always the case. For example, Volkswagen can sell you an e-Golf straight away, no waiting list needed. It's the same story for some e-Niro cars and there are some demo Konas with low kms that you could probably get without going on a waiting list.




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Uber Geek


  #2259778 17-Jun-2019 21:54
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tdgeek:

 

What you seem too be saying, is to encourage me to buy a lesser car than I want? As a car, Kona is fine. It's ok. So Id get that. But you suggest I should just get a Leaf as thats cheaper? I told Mr OB I have a horse etc,  and he said I need to get a Tesla X. How many people will go from a car that does what they need it to do, to near on 150k to replace it? Or a 40k new car is now 80k?

 

 

With EVs, the greater the battery capacity and the range, the higher the cost. Also, if you want it highly specd with all the top extras, you have to pay for it.

 

So, if you want a good NZ-new EV with around 250km of range and with reasonable specs, you now don't need to pay more than $60,000. 

 

So, if someone is really interested in helping with reducing emissions, why not buy a NZ-new 40 kWh Leaf for $60,000 or a second-hand one for thousands less! The environment will really thank you for doing this! It's no use waiting years until you can afford to buy a more expensive EV, the planet simply can't wait that long for you to get going, or that's what I'm told.

 

 


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