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325 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  # 2249901 2-Jun-2019 13:10
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Talkiet:

 

Obraik:

 

The fact that Tesla started from scratch as an EV manufacture and never made ICE vehicles before is what appeals to me.  They're not stuck trying to ram a square peg in a round hole like may other existing car OEMs are doing with their EVs.  Yes, a Mercedes or Audi might roll of the factory floor with perfect panels perfectly coated in paint but their EV tech is years behind what Tesla is doing.  If my Tesla comes to me with a wonky panel or a blemish in the paint that can be fixed and Tesla has been very good about fixing up those issues but there's nothing that can be done for outdated EV tech.

 

 

Suspension, braking, handling, build quality, safety systems, quality control, ergonomics, comfort, long term R&D divisions, mature part and component supply etc etc etc etc etc.

 

The large companies are going to blow Tesla out of the water in the next few years with their EVs. They are going to be better built, better value, more reliable, better supported and better to drive. Tesla had a great first mover advantage but first movers frequently don't end up winners.

 

There is so much more to making a good EV than the EV drivetrain and electronics.

 

I know this will offend the Tesla fans, but it's my opinion and I think we're already starting to see it.

 

Tesla are certainly ahead today on elements of the EV tech but if you think some of the largest companies in the world are going to let that go unanswered, then I have some interesting information for you about how much publicly traded companies like to make money.

 

Cheers - N

 

 

 

 

You're assuming Tesla doesn't move forward as well.  The thing is, none of the big car companies have anything announced that looks like a challenger to what Tesla is doing.  Maybe VW with their ID line but that's still a few years away.  The cars that have been announced for release in 2020/2021 are cars that compete with the cars Tesla released last year when they announced them.  Meanwhile, Tesla is continuing to develop their technologies and set these companies further behind.  They've just recently bought Maxwell technologies with their super capacitor technology which is going to put them ahead of the others.

 

I see the biggest competitors to Tesla being the companies starting up with the same mentality as them.  Companies like Rivian.


160 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 61


  # 2249905 2-Jun-2019 13:28
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Talkiet:

 

Obraik:

 

The fact that Tesla started from scratch as an EV manufacture and never made ICE vehicles before is what appeals to me.  They're not stuck trying to ram a square peg in a round hole like may other existing car OEMs are doing with their EVs.  Yes, a Mercedes or Audi might roll of the factory floor with perfect panels perfectly coated in paint but their EV tech is years behind what Tesla is doing.  If my Tesla comes to me with a wonky panel or a blemish in the paint that can be fixed and Tesla has been very good about fixing up those issues but there's nothing that can be done for outdated EV tech.

 

 

Suspension, braking, handling, build quality, safety systems, quality control, ergonomics, comfort, long term R&D divisions, mature part and component supply etc etc etc etc etc.

 

The large companies are going to blow Tesla out of the water in the next few years with their EVs. They are going to be better built, better value, more reliable, better supported and better to drive. Tesla had a great first mover advantage but first movers frequently don't end up winners.

 

There is so much more to making a good EV than the EV drivetrain and electronics.

 

I know this will offend the Tesla fans, but it's my opinion and I think we're already starting to see it.

 

Tesla are certainly ahead today on elements of the EV tech but if you think some of the largest companies in the world are going to let that go unanswered, then I have some interesting information for you about how much publicly traded companies like to make money.

 

Cheers - N

 

 

 

 

Please refrain from referring to Tesla as if they are some type of immature startup. They are the most mature AND safest electric vehicle manufacturer in the world today. They are not the first. Just like Apple were not the first to market with a touch screen smart phone.

 

If you haven't noticed, they are building cars like Apple did the iPhone, and you sound like Blackberry citing all of these traditional manufacturing requirements that can all be easily outsourced to multiple third party suppliers in today's market. Tesla, like Apple, have their most critical components designed in house and manufacturing/supply chain on lock down. They have an enthusiastic fan base, because they are different when it comes to what personal transport 'could' be. 

 

You aren't offending any Tesla fans because you come across as under exposed to what technology and supply chain lead Tesla have, and why people buy their cars in the first place. Yes, traditional big auto will release some cool electric vehicles in the future, eventually some of them will be the Samsung and Huawei to Tesla's Apple. But Tesla isn't going anywhere because they have some of the world's best talent and loyal customer base they continue to please.

 

Everything you're saying actually applies to Rivian or Faraday. Rivian is a newcomer that I really hope do get an opportunity to bring their vehicles to market. But just like big auto such as VW, they're going to be rudely awoken when they realise the investment in supply chain, battery technology and drivetrain efficiency takes years to establish. Whole companies can be sunk by rushing any of the stuff Tesla has spent 10 years plus developing and Faraday is a great example of that.

 

I get it, you think they won't be around, easy statement to make if you still love physical buttons in a car for everything, everyone thought the same thing about Apple's iPhone (no qwerty keyboard! hah, this will never sell), but there are a multitude of reasons they are 'still around' years after they were 'meant' to be bankrupt/dead/bought/killed etc.

 

 


 
 
 
 


4124 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2249923 2-Jun-2019 13:45
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premiumtouring:[snip]

 

You aren't offending any Tesla fans... [snip]

 

 

Oh, I'm pretty sure you just proved otherwise right there :-)

 

In any case, you make good points - I do however think that companies that have decades of building many MANY different types of cars (and trucks, vans etc etc) have a better handle on CARS than Tesla do. It's certainly not to say that Tesla isn't making great cars - they are very impressive - especially in their technology.

 

All I am really saying is that large car companies like money so much that they are not going to let Tesla have that market all to themselves and they have considerable resources to throw at the problem. Perhaps in the same way I am dismissing Tesla as a serious long term automotive contender, you are dismissing the ability of the traditional automotive companies to leverage decades of experience and compete...

 

Cheers - N

 

 

 

 





--

 

Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


325 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 116


  # 2249930 2-Jun-2019 13:53
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Talkiet:

 

premiumtouring:[snip]

 

You aren't offending any Tesla fans... [snip]

 

 

Oh, I'm pretty sure you just proved otherwise right there :-)

 

In any case, you make good points - I do however think that companies that have decades of building many MANY different types of cars (and trucks, vans etc etc) have a better handle on CARS than Tesla do. It's certainly not to say that Tesla isn't making great cars - they are very impressive - especially in their technology.

 

All I am really saying is that large car companies like money so much that they are not going to let Tesla have that market all to themselves and they have considerable resources to throw at the problem. Perhaps in the same way I am dismissing Tesla as a serious long term automotive contender, you are dismissing the ability of the traditional automotive companies to leverage decades of experience and compete...

 

Cheers - N

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's not as if we haven't seen "too big to fail" car companies fail before from not keeping up ;)


4124 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2881

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  # 2249931 2-Jun-2019 13:54
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Obraik:

 

Talkiet:

 

premiumtouring:[snip]

 

You aren't offending any Tesla fans... [snip]

 

 

Oh, I'm pretty sure you just proved otherwise right there :-)

 

In any case, you make good points - I do however think that companies that have decades of building many MANY different types of cars (and trucks, vans etc etc) have a better handle on CARS than Tesla do. It's certainly not to say that Tesla isn't making great cars - they are very impressive - especially in their technology.

 

All I am really saying is that large car companies like money so much that they are not going to let Tesla have that market all to themselves and they have considerable resources to throw at the problem. Perhaps in the same way I am dismissing Tesla as a serious long term automotive contender, you are dismissing the ability of the traditional automotive companies to leverage decades of experience and compete...

 

Cheers - N

 

 

It's not as if we haven't seen "too big to fail" car companies fail before from not keeping up ;)

 

 

Precisely!!! Now we only have the really good ones left :-)

 

 

 

N

 

 





--

 

Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


2251 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2249989 2-Jun-2019 14:54
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Talkiet:

Precisely!!! Now we only have the really good ones left :-)


 


N


 



And General Motors

17000 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3389

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  # 2250018 2-Jun-2019 16:41
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If you had two EV's, same specs, one a Tesla and another a Nissan/Kia/Hyundai, what would the price difference be?  Tesla $5k more? 10k? 20k?


 
 
 
 


698 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 245


  # 2250020 2-Jun-2019 16:43
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Batman:

 

driller2000:

 

Based on a 10 year TOC I did for my use case of 25k km per year (6.0l V8 / 4 door sedan) - the Model 3 @ this price trounces the alternatives I would consider.

 

So I am encouraged by this price for the performance, features - especially seeing as I wont be buying new.

 

Will also be interesting to see how much they depreciate over time and what 2nd hand prices will be.

 

 

 

 

When demand is more than supply, sometimes second hand cars cost more than new. Not common, but I've seen it happen and on more than one model.

 

 

 

 

Yeah for a few people that didn't pre-order and that now HAVE to have one I could see that as a possibility. But over time as more Model 3's are landed AND as delivery times shorten normal pricing behaviour would imo return.

 

That said I must admit when I tried to find data for depreciation/resale values for EV's it was bloody hard. I suspect this is in part due to limited volumes/data - and the Model 3 should provide a larger data set over time - so depreciation/resale trends should become clearer over the next few years.

 

That said most info I have seen I would expect EV's to hold their value better vs. ICE due to lower O&M costs.

 

And some writers have predicted that ICE values could well PLUMMET once the business case for EV's swings in their favour ie. not only lower O&M, but also lower initial purchase price.

 

Interesting times :)

 

 

 

Edit: O&M = Operations and Maintenance - ahem...Engineer  :)

 

 


160 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 61


  # 2250024 2-Jun-2019 16:57
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Talkiet:

 

premiumtouring:[snip]

 

You aren't offending any Tesla fans... [snip]

 

 

Oh, I'm pretty sure you just proved otherwise right there :-)

 

In any case, you make good points - I do however think that companies that have decades of building many MANY different types of cars (and trucks, vans etc etc) have a better handle on CARS than Tesla do. It's certainly not to say that Tesla isn't making great cars - they are very impressive - especially in their technology.

 

All I am really saying is that large car companies like money so much that they are not going to let Tesla have that market all to themselves and they have considerable resources to throw at the problem. Perhaps in the same way I am dismissing Tesla as a serious long term automotive contender, you are dismissing the ability of the traditional automotive companies to leverage decades of experience and compete...

 

Cheers - N

 

 

 

 

Hehe touche. Keep in mind, all of those car companies have been actively trying for a very long time.. they've all failed to waiver Tesla (who still hasn't been bailed out or bankrupted, yet). It is super ironic that a vehicle that is designed and manufactured in the USA is one of the most shorted stocks in recent history! But it makes sense when you're a threat to an entire industry (oil). We'll see how it goes!


17000 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2250025 2-Jun-2019 16:59
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driller2000:

 

Batman:

 

driller2000:

 

Based on a 10 year TOC I did for my use case of 25k km per year (6.0l V8 / 4 door sedan) - the Model 3 @ this price trounces the alternatives I would consider.

 

So I am encouraged by this price for the performance, features - especially seeing as I wont be buying new.

 

Will also be interesting to see how much they depreciate over time and what 2nd hand prices will be.

 

 

 

 

When demand is more than supply, sometimes second hand cars cost more than new. Not common, but I've seen it happen and on more than one model.

 

 

 

 

Yeah for a few people that didn't pre-order and that now HAVE to have one I could see that as a possibility. But over time as more Model 3's are landed AND as delivery times shorten normal pricing behaviour would imo return.

 

That said I must admit when I tried to find data for depreciation/resale values for EV's it was bloody hard. I suspect this is in part due to limited volumes/data - and the Model 3 should provide a larger data set over time - so depreciation/resale trends should become clearer over the next few years.

 

That said most info I have seen I would expect EV's to hold their value better vs. ICE due to lower O&M costs.

 

And some writers have predicted that ICE values could well PLUMMET once the business case for EV's swings in their favour ie. not only lower O&M, but also lower initial purchase price.

 

Interesting times :)

 

 

 

 

O+M?

 

What I bolded, yes, one day that will happen. Bigly. (c/- D Trump)  EV has started, is starting, but I think the Kia/Nissan/Hyundai will one day make EV the main product. They will be matching demand with production, demand can be manipullated by selling price. 

 

 


325 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 116


  # 2250026 2-Jun-2019 17:01
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driller2000:

 

Batman:

 

driller2000:

 

Based on a 10 year TOC I did for my use case of 25k km per year (6.0l V8 / 4 door sedan) - the Model 3 @ this price trounces the alternatives I would consider.

 

So I am encouraged by this price for the performance, features - especially seeing as I wont be buying new.

 

Will also be interesting to see how much they depreciate over time and what 2nd hand prices will be.

 

 

 

 

When demand is more than supply, sometimes second hand cars cost more than new. Not common, but I've seen it happen and on more than one model.

 

 

 

 

Yeah for a few people that didn't pre-order and that now HAVE to have one I could see that as a possibility. But over time as more Model 3's are landed AND as delivery times shorten normal pricing behaviour would imo return.

 

That said I must admit when I tried to find data for depreciation/resale values for EV's it was bloody hard. I suspect this is in part due to limited volumes/data - and the Model 3 should provide a larger data set over time - so depreciation/resale trends should become clearer over the next few years.

 

That said most info I have seen I would expect EV's to hold their value better vs. ICE due to lower O&M costs.

 

And some writers have predicted that ICE values could well PLUMMET once the business case for EV's swings in their favour ie. not only lower O&M, but also lower initial purchase price.

 

Interesting times :)

 

 

 

 

Yeah, in the US when the Model 3 were first rolling out and the wait time was huge some people were taking delivery and then selling it for a profit very easily.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the ICE sale bans will have on the resale of them.  Sweden has a ban on new ICE vehicles from 2030.  It'll be interesting to see if that increases the value of second hand ICE cars temporarily because they'd be the only way to get an ICE vehicle from that date.


17000 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3389

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  # 2250027 2-Jun-2019 17:02
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premiumtouring:

 

Talkiet:

 

premiumtouring:[snip]

 

You aren't offending any Tesla fans... [snip]

 

 

Oh, I'm pretty sure you just proved otherwise right there :-)

 

In any case, you make good points - I do however think that companies that have decades of building many MANY different types of cars (and trucks, vans etc etc) have a better handle on CARS than Tesla do. It's certainly not to say that Tesla isn't making great cars - they are very impressive - especially in their technology.

 

All I am really saying is that large car companies like money so much that they are not going to let Tesla have that market all to themselves and they have considerable resources to throw at the problem. Perhaps in the same way I am dismissing Tesla as a serious long term automotive contender, you are dismissing the ability of the traditional automotive companies to leverage decades of experience and compete...

 

Cheers - N

 

 

 

 

Hehe touche. Keep in mind, all of those car companies have been actively trying for a very long time.. they've all failed to waiver Tesla (who still hasn't been bailed out or bankrupted, yet). It is super ironic that a vehicle that is designed and manufactured in the USA is one of the most shorted stocks in recent history! But it makes sense when you're a threat to an entire industry (oil). We'll see how it goes!

 

 

Car companies have ICE. They wont jump onto EV until its worthwhile, and they can do that when they want. Tesla are finally getting production up, its the Apple of cars. But while we will stump for a high priced phone, with cars we will go for the cheaper and arguably better one, assuming the KIA/Nissan etc will be significantly cheaper. 


17000 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2250028 2-Jun-2019 17:03
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Obraik:

 

It'll be interesting to see what the ICE sale bans will have on the resale of them.  Sweden has a ban on new ICE vehicles from 2030.  It'll be interesting to see if that increases the value of second hand ICE cars temporarily because they'd be the only way to get an ICE vehicle from that date.

 

 

That will happen slowly and steadily. 


gzt

10822 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1815


  # 2250050 2-Jun-2019 18:15
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Talkiet: The large companies are going to blow Tesla out of the water in the next few years with their EVs. They are going to be better built, better value, more reliable, better supported and better to drive.

Imo it's difficult to make that call. Tesla is innovating in all kinds of areas. Some of it will fail no doubt - eg; the battery swap idea ended up being small trial only - and some will succeed.

Tesla had a great first mover advantage but first movers frequently don't end up winners.

Two words: Henry Ford! : )

2251 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2250129 2-Jun-2019 22:40
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premiumtouring:

Talkiet:


premiumtouring:[snip]


You aren't offending any Tesla fans... [snip]



Oh, I'm pretty sure you just proved otherwise right there :-)


In any case, you make good points - I do however think that companies that have decades of building many MANY different types of cars (and trucks, vans etc etc) have a better handle on CARS than Tesla do. It's certainly not to say that Tesla isn't making great cars - they are very impressive - especially in their technology.


All I am really saying is that large car companies like money so much that they are not going to let Tesla have that market all to themselves and they have considerable resources to throw at the problem. Perhaps in the same way I am dismissing Tesla as a serious long term automotive contender, you are dismissing the ability of the traditional automotive companies to leverage decades of experience and compete...


Cheers - N



 


Hehe touche. Keep in mind, all of those car companies have been actively trying for a very long time.. they've all failed to waiver Tesla (who still hasn't been bailed out or bankrupted, yet). It is super ironic that a vehicle that is designed and manufactured in the USA is one of the most shorted stocks in recent history! But it makes sense when you're a threat to an entire industry (oil). We'll see how it goes!



Tesla still hasn't developed a sustainable business. They have some interesting products but real issues getting to scale. They haven't shown an ability to do that yet.

The thing the conventional companies know how to do is manufacture efficiently at scale. If Tesla don't solve that problem fast they will become a takeover target.

In that respect they ARE just another startup.

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