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19096 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2383315 31-Dec-2019 14:34
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Linuxluver:

 

tdgeek:

 

Granthod:

 

This article provides a useful analysis of the likely trajectory of EV sales and the impact this has on other car makers, and on oil pricing and production. We could be in for a very bumpy decade, geopolitically speaking...

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond

 

 

I can't see this Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026

 

Its ALL about production. Can EVs be produced in the same numbers that ICE is now? In 5 years?

 



The growth curve is already exponential.....so 5 years is reasonable. The EU is mandating change by law....so all those automakers (and anyone who wants to sell vehicles there) have to comply. Plus Tesla is driving the same change via the market itself....so pincer movement. 

 

 

Ok, so ICE cars will not be sold around 2026? ok


19096 posts

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  #2383325 31-Dec-2019 14:52
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RobDickinson:

 

Talkiet:

 

RobDickinson: 500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.

 

I added this in the hope that it would circumvent that sort of comment - "Of course, it's not an issue for everyone... I would never try and tell anyone else what they need or that their requirements are invalid."

 

In any case, while I don't do it every weekend, I do several times a year chase around and spectate rallies (not always towing)... That's often 500km+ with often JUST enough time to splash in some extra gas. We stop in the middle of forests and fields for hours, not at a convenient supercharger.

 

Not everyone uses a car just to go from A to B in a well planned out, time insensitive fashion.

 

 

 

I suggest then not buying a vehicle unsuited to your needs? Its not had or complicated. You are a massive outlier by the looks, even a leaf would suit most people most of the time.

 

 

 

Certainly a model 3 wouldnt ever be suitable so why is this here?

 

 

Massive outlier? This is NZ not Tokyo, we are an outdoorsy people. But as since suggested get another car, so the V8 SUV at 400hp can emit CO2, plus the price premiumed EV in the garage as well. You can see why it makes sense to run one car, 1/3 the capital cost, etc


 
 
 
 


4319 posts

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  #2383332 31-Dec-2019 14:58
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I should point out that despite being a big car nut, I'm seriously considering getting a small efficient car as well - but I couldn't bring myself to get a Leaf... A Honda S660 though... Nom nom nom - or even a CR-Z (Hybrid!)

 

I don't dislike technology or electric vehicles at all - I love progress and the power they can have - but I can't see them making sense as anything but a fashion accessory or (if you can afford a realllllllly nice one) a sports car.

 

It's a lot like Solar power. I would LOVE to get solar. I like graphs, I love the idea of using the energy that's falling onto us for free every day, but at the moment it can't be justified here in any economic fashion at all.

 

When it can, I will get it. When there's an EV that meets my needs I'll get one.

 

However much like other areas of technology - I get annoyed when evangelists want to make everyone think it's the right time already - when it's only the right time for them.

 

N.

 

 





--

 

Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


258 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2383334 31-Dec-2019 15:02
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tdgeek:

 

Massive outlier? This is NZ not Tokyo, we are an outdoorsy people. But as since suggested get another car, so the V8 SUV at 400hp can emit CO2, plus the price premiumed EV in the garage as well. You can see why it makes sense to run one car, 1/3 the capital cost, etc

 

 

 

 

yes massive outlier. very feew people tow boats 1000+km in one go.

 

 

 

And a 400hp v8 SUV plus a cheap leaf would be more cost effective. 

Average commuting milage per year would pay for the leaf over ~4 years alone.


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  #2383342 31-Dec-2019 15:11
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RobDickinson:

 

tdgeek:

 

Massive outlier? This is NZ not Tokyo, we are an outdoorsy people. But as since suggested get another car, so the V8 SUV at 400hp can emit CO2, plus the price premiumed EV in the garage as well. You can see why it makes sense to run one car, 1/3 the capital cost, etc

 

 

 

 

yes massive outlier. very feew people tow boats 1000+km in one go.

 

 

 

And a 400hp v8 SUV plus a cheap leaf would be more cost effective. 

Average commuting milage per year would pay for the leaf over ~4 years alone.

 

 

Why do people here keep suggesting a cheap Leaf? Maybe the Tesla owners here should also have bought a cheap Leaf instead? After all its cheaper, its old, its has plenty of km on it,  SOH is down. Its a silly way to justify an EV when it often comes back to buying an older, dented, second hand car with unknown history


258 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2383343 31-Dec-2019 15:12
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why are you on a thread about a 4 door saloon wanting to replace a v8 SUV?


258 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2383344 31-Dec-2019 15:12
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Its not our fault you cant afford a model 3


 
 
 
 


4319 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2383345 31-Dec-2019 15:12
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RobDickinson:

 

[snip]And a 400hp v8 SUV plus a cheap leaf would be more cost effective. [snip]

 

 

Maybe, but I love driving. I don't want to drive a bland, slow car... When I get an EV, it's going to have to be exciting.

 

N.





--

 

Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


662 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2383346 31-Dec-2019 15:13
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Talkiet:

 

I should point out that despite being a big car nut, I'm seriously considering getting a small efficient car as well - but I couldn't bring myself to get a Leaf... A Honda S660 though... Nom nom nom - or even a CR-Z (Hybrid!)

 

I don't dislike technology or electric vehicles at all - I love progress and the power they can have - but I can't see them making sense as anything but a fashion accessory or (if you can afford a realllllllly nice one) a sports car.

 

It's a lot like Solar power. I would LOVE to get solar. I like graphs, I love the idea of using the energy that's falling onto us for free every day, but at the moment it can't be justified here in any economic fashion at all.

 

When it can, I will get it. When there's an EV that meets my needs I'll get one.

 

However much like other areas of technology - I get annoyed when evangelists want to make everyone think it's the right time already - when it's only the right time for them.

 

N.

 

 

 

 

It's the right time for most people. You are an outlier.

 

The overwhelming majority use their car as a tool - a means to get to and from work or the shops. The car that is the topic of this thread, the Model 3, is more than capable of handling that plus any extended road trips one might want to do.


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  #2383347 31-Dec-2019 15:14
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RobDickinson:

 

Its not our fault you cant afford a model 3

 

 

LOL. I just bought a new house to stop myself buying a Ferrari 360 :-)

 

Nice troll though - but it is distracting from what I think are very reasonable points.

 

N.

 

 





--

 

Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


19096 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2383349 31-Dec-2019 15:15
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Talkiet:

 

I should point out that despite being a big car nut, I'm seriously considering getting a small efficient car as well - but I couldn't bring myself to get a Leaf... A Honda S660 though... Nom nom nom - or even a CR-Z (Hybrid!)

 

I don't dislike technology or electric vehicles at all - I love progress and the power they can have - but I can't see them making sense as anything but a fashion accessory or (if you can afford a realllllllly nice one) a sports car.

 

It's a lot like Solar power. I would LOVE to get solar. I like graphs, I love the idea of using the energy that's falling onto us for free every day, but at the moment it can't be justified here in any economic fashion at all.

 

When it can, I will get it. When there's an EV that meets my needs I'll get one.

 

However much like other areas of technology - I get annoyed when evangelists want to make everyone think it's the right time already - when it's only the right time for them.

 

N.

 

 

 

 

I echo this, same re the solar.


4319 posts

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  #2383350 31-Dec-2019 15:15
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Obraik:

 

[snip]The car that is the topic of this thread, the Model 3, is more than capable of handling that plus any extended road trips one might want to do.[snip]

 

 

* Conditions apply





--

 

Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


258 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2383360 31-Dec-2019 15:19
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I can do the longest single day drive I have done in years in the model 3 with a 22min charging stop (~800km), I wouldnt want to do more in a single day than that and would stop for longer for beaks.


662 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2383362 31-Dec-2019 15:20
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Talkiet:

 

Obraik:

 

[snip]The car that is the topic of this thread, the Model 3, is more than capable of handling that plus any extended road trips one might want to do.[snip]

 

 

* Conditions apply

 

 

Pretty much the same conditions as any other vehicle in the same class.


19096 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2383363 31-Dec-2019 15:20
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RobDickinson:

 

Its not our fault you cant afford a model 3

 

 

LOL funny. You have summed up a lot in a few words. Quite wrong grasshopper, quite wrong.


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