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Scott3
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  #2755283 4-Aug-2021 21:00
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Azzura:

 

They talk about hydrogen in this article --

https://www.wired.com/story/toyota-whiffed-on-electric-vehicles-now-trying-slow-their-rise/

 

 

 

"Hydrogen Dead End

 

Having spent the last decade ignoring or dismissing EVs, Toyota now finds itself a laggard in an industry that's swiftly preparing for an electric—not just electrified—transition."

 

 

Toyota is an interesting case study.

 

I don't believe for a moment that their current positioning is an accident, or error they have made regarding plug in vehicles.

 

They are in an extremely desirable position at the moment. Their (non plug in) hybrid technology is head and shoulders over the competition at the moment. 

 

Examples:

 

  • Yaris hybrid, 85kW, 3.3L/100km combined rating on 91 Ron, under $30k.
  • Rav4 hybrid AWD, 163kW, 4.8L/100km combined on 91 Ron, for under $45k

And this is from mature technology that is relatively cheap to produce, and can run fairly small NiMh batteries rather than giant expensive lithem battery packs.

 

When Europe worked out that having large volumes of diesel cars in urban centers was making air quality the worst it had been in years, and they were going to move away front that tech, Toyota hit the Jackpot big time. No further competition from euro diesel's in the green motoring space.

 

Toyota is quite capable of building electric cars, and has done two generations of Rav4 electric's for the USA ZEV mandate states. It is also quite capable of building desirable plug in hybrids (Look up the spec's of the rav4 prime...), but at the moment, it can move large volumes of decent margin cars (including their hybrid offerings in emissions sensitive markets), without spending the money of carrying the risk of being moving quickly to EV. Reading between the lines I think it is pritty clear toyota's hydrogen cars, pure electric cars and the desirable rav4 prime were never ment to sell in big volumes, which would risk eating sales volumes of toyota's high margin products.

 

By being a laggard, Toyota can keep selling it's high margin ice and hybrid offings for the maximum length of time.

 

And it has avoided either tight margin or loss making first and possibly second generation of mainstream EV's. Not only did these cars not make their manufactures partially much money, but also they have risked reputation damage. Nissan would be the main example, it cut the corners it needed to to get the leaf cheap enough to sell in big volumes, but that ment no active battery cooling, which meant fast pack degradation, and their brand being associated with poor lifespan products.

 

It seems the first markets (like the UK) will start banning non plug in cars in 2030, and going all electric in 2035. There is a chance brands like toyota will choose not to play that game, and markets like the Uk will be left desperately short of new cars & vans come 2030. This combined with lobbying could potentially delay this by say 5 years. Worst case they still have plenty of other markets to sell their cars into.

But Toyota could easily have a lineup of plug in hybrid's to hit the first date (or even do ok just offering the prius prime & Rav4 prime), so it is the 2035 date that is matters (if it holds), Just under 14 years away. A long time in auto development.

 

 

 

In the background both Japan and toyota are spending big bucks on solid state battery R&D. This is basically the holy grail of batteries... Estimates have:

 

  • 1000km range
  • 10min fast charge
  • 30 year life with 90% of new capacity at the end
  • -40c to 100c temp range.
  • Stable and safer than current batteries.

No body quite knows how far along they are, but I doubt the Japanese government would be spending US$19b on the tech if it wasn't promising.

 

 

 

Little need to Toyota to make big decisions in the next 8 years or so. They can keep operating as normal until then. At that point they will need to make a call if they are going to bet the farm on tesla style gigafactories and bet big on conventional batteries, or if they are going to bet on solid state batteries, and tool up for making large volume.

 

If they go the conventional route, Toyota will power into the market with a range of 3rd (or 4th) generation EV's, based on the painfull learning of the other brands over the past 25 years. As long as toyota has kept it's reputation for quality, buyers will be lining up.

 

If they go the solid state route, they will be able to launch a range of EV's that blow their competitors out of the water and instantly establish toyota as the brand to beat in the EV space.


Obraik
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  #2755289 4-Aug-2021 21:13
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In regards to the Rav4 EV, Tesla made the drivetrain of the last generation they sold.


Technofreak

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  #2760189 15-Aug-2021 12:57
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Sidestep
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  #2760195 15-Aug-2021 13:22
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Technofreak: Interesting article about hydrogen use, mainly in heavy vehicles.

 

In Moses Lake WA, Universal Hydrogen's converting a couple of DH Dash-8's to their encapsulated, exchangeable H2/FC system.
No doubt they'll fly them, will it (the whole supply chain) be viable? Likely not with today's tech - but things are in flux..

 

They do seem to have a half-dozen airlines interested - including Icelandair.


RobDickinson
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  #2760197 15-Aug-2021 13:27
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Blue hydrogen (aka most of it) is worse than using coal.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/blue-hydrogen-pushed-by-gas-companies-harms-climate-more-than-coal-study-says/

Hydrogen trucking has a very small/short window for becoming an actual thing.

Tesla semi and others are coming and they will be cheaper to run


Sidestep
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  #2760231 15-Aug-2021 15:31
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RobDickinson:

 

Blue hydrogen (aka most of it) is worse than using coal....snip

Tesla semi and others are coming and they will be cheaper to run

 

 

Can't argue that Electric semis may be cheaper to run, but that first line's virtually clickbait.

 

The study Arstechnica’s article is based on gives a more balanced view than their dramatic take on it - and point out the flaws of building a study on an almost nonexistent industry.
As Howarth and Jacobson point out their study’s based on a ‘very limited number of operating blue-hydrogen facilities globally that used natural gas to produce hydrogen at commercial scale’ - two (2) to be exact. Which skews the whole thing.

 

I don’t know any more about DOE/APD’s Port Arthur plant (built 2012-13) than what’s in their public releases, but I do have some insight into Shell’s Quest CCS facility at Scotford AB (built 2015).
It’s run by Shell, but owned by (AOSP) joint venture – of which is 70% owned by CNQ – so pretty much just a handy carbon credit operation for their oil sands mining nowdays.

 

One reason the study’s calculations look terrible even with CCS from both SMR process and from the power plant’s exhaust flue gases.. is because it’s basically a first gen pilot plant using late 90’s tech.

 

By the time they were commissioned a lot of the tech used had already been superseded. And they deliberately concentrated on just their CCS core processes before the federal and provincial funding went away and ignored the rest of the birdsnest.

 

Another thing is the study’s general method for estimating the upstream emissions that occur in the gas production fields looks to be high for the actual fields this gas comes from.. and fugitive emissions are still being reduced like crazy out there.

 

Shell’s taken what they’ve learned at Quest and are now applying it to their next-gen Polaris CCS project, which looks as though it’s going to be far more efficient. (APD’s also moved on to 2nd gen ops, particularly with ACWA in Neom, Saudi).

 

The same study written in 10 years time will look far different, with overall less pollution than methane and way below coal.

 

I’m not an apologist for oil companies, but do believe they should be given a fair chance to produce low carbon blue hydrogen – what’s to loose? - at least it’s a step on the path to growing the necessary midstream infrastructure of a potential green hydrogen market.


Technofreak

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  #2760286 15-Aug-2021 17:36
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RobDickinson:

 

Blue hydrogen (aka most of it) is worse than using coal.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/blue-hydrogen-pushed-by-gas-companies-harms-climate-more-than-coal-study-says/

Hydrogen trucking has a very small/short window for becoming an actual thing.

Tesla semi and others are coming and they will be cheaper to run

 

 

You keep saying batteries are the way ahead even for heavy transport. I know Elon sees batteries as the only solution, I'm not so sure. If it was so obvious that BEV's were the way of the future tell me why are companies Volvo, Kenworth, Toyota, GM, Daimler putting all this money into hydrogen? They must see a problem with batteries 

 

Just because BEV trucks might be cheaper to run it is not a given they'll be effective at the job.

 

That article I linked acknowledges the environmental issues with how some hydrogen is currently produced. It also goes on to say technological developments are changing that situation. 





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RobDickinson
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  #2760323 15-Aug-2021 19:12
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Technofreak:

 

You keep saying batteries are the way ahead even for heavy transport. I know Elon sees batteries as the only solution, I'm not so sure. If it was so obvious that BEV's were the way of the future tell me why are companies Volvo, Kenworth, Toyota, GM, Daimler putting all this money into hydrogen? They must see a problem with batteries 

 



Most of those companies (Volvo,  Daimler etc) are part of H2accelerate , along with fossil fuel companies shell and OMV, and are actively seeking government funding to do the work.  They are not doing it out of their own pocket and their targets for late 2020's is pretty feeble.

But who knows perhaps it'll prove to be the better option, rather than always a promise of the future.

Most of these companies have sunk a lot of time and effort (decades of) into h2 and dont want to see it wasted. 

Which is my point. 

Its no use if they take so long to do it they get overtaken by BEV trucks...


Rikkitic
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  #2760328 15-Aug-2021 19:22
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Chrysler sank a lot of time and money into their turbine car. There may still be one or two running somewhere. I think Jay Leno had one in his collection.

 

 





Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

 


 


Technofreak

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  #2760402 16-Aug-2021 09:35
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RobDickinson:

 

Technofreak:

 

You keep saying batteries are the way ahead even for heavy transport. I know Elon sees batteries as the only solution, I'm not so sure. If it was so obvious that BEV's were the way of the future tell me why are companies Volvo, Kenworth, Toyota, GM, Daimler putting all this money into hydrogen? They must see a problem with batteries 

 



Most of those companies (Volvo,  Daimler etc) are part of H2accelerate , along with fossil fuel companies shell and OMV, and are actively seeking government funding to do the work.  They are not doing it out of their own pocket and their targets for late 2020's is pretty feeble.

But who knows perhaps it'll prove to be the better option, rather than always a promise of the future.

Most of these companies have sunk a lot of time and effort (decades of) into h2 and dont want to see it wasted. 

Which is my point. 

Its no use if they take so long to do it they get overtaken by BEV trucks...

 

 

Sure they might have spent a whole lot of money on hydrogen. These companies aren't stupid, they cannot and won't keep spending money just because they have already spent a heap of money. They must see some promise otherwise they wouldn't keep going.

 

I don't see that BEV trucks will overtake hydrogen or anything else. The technology that best meets the needs at that time will be adopted. If batteries are the best they will be used, if something else better comes along,  whether that be hydrogen or something else, that will take over. Remember in the very early days of the motor car BEV's ruled then ICE took over.





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Technofreak

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  #2760406 16-Aug-2021 09:41
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Sidestep:

 

Technofreak: Interesting article about hydrogen use, mainly in heavy vehicles.

 

In Moses Lake WA, Universal Hydrogen's converting a couple of DH Dash-8's to their encapsulated, exchangeable H2/FC system.
No doubt they'll fly them, will it (the whole supply chain) be viable? Likely not with today's tech - but things are in flux..

 

They do seem to have a half-dozen airlines interested - including Icelandair.

 

 

Interesting. I give these guys a much greater chance of success than the likes of Heart Aerospace. Also I think their certification timeline is far more realistic than Heart.

 

Interestingly Universal have chosen to modify an existing airframe which I think is the less risky way to go. I don't know why a lot of the companies following the battery route have decided to make their own airframe. Seems to me they are biting off a lot more work by having to certify both a new airframe and a new propulsion system.





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RobDickinson
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  #2760409 16-Aug-2021 09:50
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Technofreak:These companies aren't stupid*, they cannot and won't keep spending money just because they have already spent a heap of money.

 



* citation needed 

They are spending government money because governments have been told by lobbyists (usually fossil fuel ones) that hydrogen will one day be a thing.

All the arguments people make today for hydrogen trucking are the same arguments they made for hydrogen passenger cars. And just worthwhile...


Obraik
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  #2760410 16-Aug-2021 09:50
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I don't see the advatange to Hydrogen for trucking. If the Tesla Semi claims do turn out to be accurate and it does get 800-900km per charge while also using the 4680 cells which have much higher energy per kg then the advantage to Hydrogen is very minimal.

 

An 800km ranged BEV Truck has more than enough range to get a commercial truck driver to their 5.5 hour mandated break, with plenty to spare. While they're on said break then that BEV truck can be plugged in and be back over 80% of its capacity before the drivers break has been completed. 


Technofreak

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  #2760413 16-Aug-2021 09:57
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Obraik:

I don't see the advatange to Hydrogen for trucking. If the Tesla Semi claims do turn out to be accurate and it does get 800-900km per charge while also using the 4680 cells which have much higher energy per kg then the advantage to Hydrogen is very minimal.


An 800km ranged BEV Truck has more than enough range to get a commercial truck driver to their 5.5 hour mandated break, with plenty to spare. While they're on said break then that BEV truck can be plugged in and be back over 80% of its capacity before the drivers break has been completed. 



How heavy are these batteries? How much do they impact payload?




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RobDickinson
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  #2760416 16-Aug-2021 10:10
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Technofreak:

How heavy are these batteries? How much do they impact payload?



"With both the U.S. and E.U. having approved higher weight allowances for electric heavy-duty trucks, we expect the payload to be at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck. In the E.U., electric semi trucks are allowed to be 2 tons (~4,400 pounds) heavier than diesel equivalents, and in the U.S. the allowance is 0.9 tons (2,000 pounds). When fully loaded, the Tesla Semi should be able to achieve over 500 miles of range, achieved through aerodynamics and highly efficient motors. This truck will be able to reach an efficiency of over 0.5 miles per kWh."

https://electrek.co/2021/08/13/tesla-semi-electric-truck-weight-on-point-crucial/

Not much heavier than normal trucks once you've swapped the fuel/engine/transmission etc.



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