the future is here in Australia: EV vs ICE

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#3004477 2-Dec-2022 09:42

rb99:

I'll fix this up when I become master of the universe.

When this happens, I think you need to be a bit more aspirational. Mandate a “Mr Fusion” power supply be fitted to every vehicle by 2030.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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GV27

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#3004479 2-Dec-2022 09:44

tchart:

^^^ this, current prices are stupid money - its unobtainium for the majority of NZ.

The cheapest new EV in NZ is MG ZS EV for $48,990 ($40,365 after rebate).

Lets assume you could get finance for $40K - thats about $475 per fortnight (AA car loan) plus what ever electricity you use. AFAIK you

However if I get a nice secondhand ICE for $10K its $121 per fortnight. Difference being $354 which would more than cover two tanks of 91 a fortnight.

The total fornightly spend is "close" but I dont think many low income earners would be approved for a $40K car loan (at least not at 7-10%pa).

And while we can wait for the second hand market, do you think after 5-6 years a second hand EV would be $10K?

I think it's fair to assume that most people would take a trade-in on an EV, so if you had a $10K car to trade into begin with, you're looking at $30K for your loan. Over five years that's $142 a week, for a car that comes with a seven year battery warranty.

But where a $48K MG ZS might not work for some people, a $28K ZE1 Leaf might give them 90% of the savings anyway.

rb99

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#3004481 2-Dec-2022 09:45

Well, I was thinking more of dusky maidens, but Mr Fusion (never mind the power supply) would do...

“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” -John Kenneth Galbraith

rb99

GV27

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#3004483 2-Dec-2022 09:51

elpenguino:

We've all seen the queues at petrol stations in some beach or lakeside spot. How much more of a PITA will those be when every user needs 15 minutes instead of 4?

Roughly 3.75x more of a PITA :D

But wildly, we didn't abandon ICE cars when people had to queue at busy times on forecourts either.

EVs have a distinct advantage over petrol cars anyway, in that you can charge them at home or anywhere there is a three pin socket, and it's generally far cheaper.

Classic case, there is only a handful of proper Tesla supercharger sites. But huge huge numbers of cafes, hotels and other places have Tesla destination chargers that you can plug into.

The family resort I used to go had one Tesla destination wallbox, then two, and now they have six EV charging stations for various cables and adapters.

I can't see them retrofitting oil refineries where the pools are so that ICE drivers have the same option.

shk292

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#3004488 2-Dec-2022 10:17

GV27:

Depreciation is a non-cash expense, if you're talking about being able to make payments on something, it isn't a relevant consideration.

Thankfully technology does not stand still or get more expensive with time. A $200 video card today is still leagues ahead of what $200 bought you ten years ago, even if it is on the low side of what you could spend.

I was looking at it from a perspective of whole-life cost; IMHO, selectively ignoring some cost elements of owning something is a great way to waste money (and may be partly why I've never had a personal loan and have been mortgage-free for the last 9 years)

Your second sentence adds weight to my belief that depreciation on current-generation EVs will be very high. Already it's hard to justify the cost of some models (eg Mazda and Peugeot) compared to new players (eg BYD and to some extent MG). When the tech gets better and cheaper, how much residual value will there be on the (eg) $75k 2021 MX-30 compared to a new 2026 MG8 or other future model? I'd say close to zero

MikeAqua

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#3004538 2-Dec-2022 10:26

mudguard:

How often do people drive even 100km per day?

Every work from office day, I drive 62km each way. And there is no charging facility (or nearby power supply) where I park for work.

Plus the same distance towing 2,000kg most nice weekends.

Mike

GV27

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#3004539 2-Dec-2022 10:27

shk292:

Your second sentence adds weight to my belief that depreciation on current-generation EVs will be very high. Already it's hard to justify the cost of some models (eg Mazda and Peugeot) compared to new players (eg BYD and to some extent MG). When the tech gets better and cheaper, how much residual value will there be on the (eg) $75k 2021 MX-30 compared to a new 2026 MG8 or other future model? I'd say close to zero

There are good and bad value EVs like there are good and bad values ICE cars. The MX-30 is a pretty terrible car all round thanks to Mazda's stupid 'Don't pay for battery you don't use every day but please ignore how this means you'll need more charges and discharges to cover the same distance' approach. Wildly, people don't want to pay a premium for that, no matter how many sustainable interior materials you have.,

The 208 and 2008 I looked at briefly as grey market imports but I had questions about support for the OBC which is being replaced in the next generation by the e308 battery and drivetrain anyway. But Euro hatches probably aren't the best benchmark for anything as we tend to pay through the nose for those here, regardless of whether they run on fuel or something else.

Considering a 2000 Corolla can be anywhere from $2K to $5K, the residual value of an EV is incredibly unlikely to ever drop to zero. Hell, even 2011 Nissan Leafs that can barely do 80km on a charge are still close to $10K.

GV27

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#3004547 2-Dec-2022 10:28

MikeAqua:

Every work from office day, I drive 62km each way. And there is no charging facility (or nearby power supply) where I park for work.

Plus the same distance towing 2,000kg most nice weekends.

Do you have power sockets in your home, and a driveway?

MikeAqua

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#3004550 2-Dec-2022 10:33

tchart:

The total fornightly spend is "close" but I dont think many low income earners would be approved for a $40K car loan (at least not at 7-10%pa).

7% - 10% is probably only available on car finance to people with mortgages.

Mike

shk292

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#3004551 2-Dec-2022 10:34

MikeAqua:

Every work from office day, I drive 62km each way. And there is no charging facility (or nearby power supply) where I park for work.

Plus the same distance towing 2,000kg most nice weekends.

62km each way for a commute is easy for most EVs and would be covered by overnight charging from a 10A socket

Maybe the green future involves keeping all these little boats closer to the launching point? Much nicer having the boat at a marine anyway ;)

GV27

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#3004552 2-Dec-2022 10:35

shk292:

I was looking at it from a perspective of whole-life cost; IMHO, selectively ignoring some cost elements of owning something is a great way to waste money (and may be partly why I've never had a personal loan and have been mortgage-free for the last 9 years)

I wasn't selectively ignoring any aspect of the cost, merely pointing that it is non-cash in nature and therefore not relevant when it comes to whether finance payments are affordable or not.

Jury is still out on whether EV depreciation is better or worse than people seem to think. Still too small a portion of the market to really be able to make that call, and used cars are all over the place again after a period of post-Covid calm.

GV27

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#3004553 2-Dec-2022 10:36

MikeAqua:

7% - 10% is probably only available on car finance to people with mortgages.

EV specific financing from UDC is currently 8.2%.

Batman

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#3004554 2-Dec-2022 10:44

EV loan with my bank is 1% for 3 years with maximum of loan life of 10 years (max loan sum of 80k)

gzt

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#3004563 2-Dec-2022 10:56

Installing extra chargers in places with normally low populations will not be good ROI - who will do it as a charity?

It will be good ROI in many cases no need for charities. Other than that, at this time it's a good way to bring people with discretionary spending power and similar interests to your door, if you so wish.

Many gas stations make very little money on gas.

MikeAqua

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#3004564 2-Dec-2022 10:56

GV27:

Do you have power sockets in your home, and a driveway?

Yes, although nowhere near where I park my commute vehicle. The car that fits in the garage isn't the commuter. But I digress as that wasn't the question. The question was something like who really drives a 100km+ commute. I do. And my commute vehicle is also the vehicle I use for towing, which I would do two to three times per month.

I did recently try a neighbours leaf for what was supposed to be a month, while they were overseas I lasted about a week. Hated that car. I also had to relocate the boat to get the leaf near a garage window, which isn't a long term solution. Thats all to do with layout of our driveway and garage.

There are couple of EVs I really, really like the look (F-150 lightning and Riviera) but I imagine they are $200k plus, which is simply unaffordable. if I wasn't towing the Audi e-tron GT looks nice, but again, I'm dreaming on the dollar front.

Mike

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