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  # 1007541 17-Mar-2014 18:57
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Anything is possible of course. Just like flying into a wormhole and ending up in a different universe.




Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  # 1007546 17-Mar-2014 19:00
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mattwnz:
itxtme:
mattwnz:
turnin: https://www.youtube.com/user/catalinapby1
^ Pilots youtube page, he subscribed to some fairly normal stuff, science mainly, including TED, some of his comments were political but hey so are mine, I'd guess he was left wing - ish, he also made a couple of vids, sounds pretty normal to me.
 


Apparently he also stayed in NZ in 2012. Love how NZ media love to give the story some NZ connection.


Its called "The kiwi connection" and it infuriates me.  Its like nothing in the world can be relevant to us all unless the persons uncles cousin once googled going to NZ (or some other *connection*)


Now TV 1 has done it, they have said that the background of the pilots photo is that Auckland.


It's embarrassing.

 
 
 
 


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  # 1007648 17-Mar-2014 20:18
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Fred99:
snowfly: Yet another possible yet interesting theory: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68


Now that's actually very good, IMO.
I don't know enough about radar on the SIA flight, but I guess it's only in the nose and with a big blind area to the rear (what's behind you isn't important). Nav lights off, transponder off, secondary radar off, ACARS off, tuck in close with care to stay away from the wash, and sit there for a few hours.  Perfect.
I wonder if he could have had a cellular device connection to "flightradar", to confirm schedule/position of the SIA flight, as if it was a few minutes late, then he'd have otherwise had only visual - looking for nav lights - and there's a lot of sky out there would have been a problem.
(edit to that - there's probably an ADS-B receiver on the 777 cockpit displays anyway - and which doesn't need two-way connection - just line of sight to the other plane)


Aircraft radar will not pick up other aircraft.

Yep, I guess you could say the TCAS was an ADS-B receiver BUT for it to work the transponder needs to be on, then it only identifies relative altitude and distance from you with limitations of about 7000 feet above and below you.  There is no specific aircraft identification.

Tagging in behind another aircraft would certainly mask that aircraft from radar, however, anyone whose done any formation flying will tell you it's pretty hard to get into formation and stay in formation without training and then plenty of recent practice.  I'm not sure a home flight sim would cut the mustard as a way to practice.





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  # 1007673 17-Mar-2014 20:55
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Technofreak:
Fred99:
snowfly: Yet another possible yet interesting theory: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68


Now that's actually very good, IMO.
I don't know enough about radar on the SIA flight, but I guess it's only in the nose and with a big blind area to the rear (what's behind you isn't important). Nav lights off, transponder off, secondary radar off, ACARS off, tuck in close with care to stay away from the wash, and sit there for a few hours.  Perfect.
I wonder if he could have had a cellular device connection to "flightradar", to confirm schedule/position of the SIA flight, as if it was a few minutes late, then he'd have otherwise had only visual - looking for nav lights - and there's a lot of sky out there would have been a problem.
(edit to that - there's probably an ADS-B receiver on the 777 cockpit displays anyway - and which doesn't need two-way connection - just line of sight to the other plane)


Aircraft radar will not pick up other aircraft.

Yep, I guess you could say the TCAS was an ADS-B receiver BUT for it to work the transponder needs to be on, then it only identifies relative altitude and distance from you with limitations of about 7000 feet above and below you.  There is no specific aircraft identification.

Tagging in behind another aircraft would certainly mask that aircraft from radar, however, anyone whose done any formation flying will tell you it's pretty hard to get into formation and stay in formation without training and then plenty of recent practice.  I'm not sure a home flight sim would cut the mustard as a way to practice.



Dammit (another one probably bites the dust).
You can buy ADS-B USB receivers only the size of a USB stick.
They'll plug in to a laptop - or this 
So no need to keep the plane's transponder on.  Which would give you accurate altitude / position data of surrounding aircraft - so from what you say, better for that purpose than a 777 TCAS, and all for a couple of thousand bucks.
The pilot was a geek - (or at least a complete nerd).
Formation flying - yes I agree.  But how close would he need to be to evade detection across the ocean? A couple of miles and a thousand or two feet above or below, or does he need to stay closer?
Does not solve the important question - motive - if it was the pilot.
But does not exclude the possibility that the Uighur "artist" reported to be on the flight had other skills.

Edit - Oh FFS - the Uighur "artist" in various news reports has a PhD and works (or worked) as an assistant professor in electrical and electronics engineering at a university in Turkey...
And that report claims he also had some flight simulation training.




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  # 1007727 17-Mar-2014 22:06
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Fred99: 

Edit - Oh FFS - the Uighur "artist" in various news reports has a PhD and works (or worked) as an assistant professor in electrical and electronics engineering at a university in Turkey...
And that report claims he also had some flight simulation training.


And another one bites the dust
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/uighur-professor-i-was-not-the-one-on-mh370

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  # 1007729 17-Mar-2014 22:09
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We have been told about this a well thought out "event".

One thing that does not add up, why the large gap from switching the ACARS off till switching the transponder off?  If you wanted to disappear in the ten minute time frame that is being suggested why wouldn't you carry out both activities at the same time in that time frame?  

Apparently the ACARS was switched off prior to leaving the Malaysian coast line, while the aircraft was still climbing. Why would you turn this off where it could have provided a possible alert and while still in radio contact where it would have been possible to query the crew on this action?

This also suggests either the hijacking took place very early on in the flight (during the climb phase) or both pilots were involved as it's highly unlikely either pilot would leave the cockpit during the climb portion of the flight. I doubt you could switch of the ACARS without the other pilot knowing.




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  # 1007736 17-Mar-2014 22:30
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Technofreak: One thing I'm trying to figure out. We are have been told about this being a well thought out "event".

One thing that does not add up, why the large gap from switching the ACARS off till switching the transponder off?  If you wanted to disappear in the ten minute time frame that is being suggested why wouldn't you carry out both activities at the same time in that time frame?  

Apparently the ACARS was switched off prior to leaving the Malaysian coast line, while the aircraft was still climbing. Why would you turn this off where it could have provided a possible alert and while still in radio contact where it would have been possible to query the crew on this action?

This also suggests either the hijacking took place very early on in the flight (during the climb phase) or both pilots were involved as it's highly unlikely either pilot would leave the cockpit during the climb portion of the flight. I doubt you could switch of the ACARS without the other pilot knowing.


Yes.  I gather that switching the ADS-B off is easy/trivial.  But would disabling ACARS involve leaving your seat and flicking a circuit breaker etc - presumably in the cockpit?  That might not exclude the flight crew, but pretty well kills the idea of a hijacking.
A hijacker "discretely" gaining entry to the cockpit is possible IMO, we know that the pilot didn't always stick to protocol.  But basing an apparently carefully planned hijack on the chance that one or other pilot (presumably not known to the hijacker when booking a ticket) would go for as leg-stretch when reaching cruise altitude, and also not follow assumed protocol of having a cabin crew replace the pilot or copilot when they went for a stroll, securing the door behind them, seems way too random, as well as not explaining how the ACARS was disabled when it was.

If the hijacker's plan was to knock out both pilots and fly the plane to a destination - and land it himself, then it's just not credible IMO.

Every scenario seems to come to a dead end - unless it was the pilot, and the dead end there is motive.

 
 
 
 


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  # 1007760 18-Mar-2014 00:53
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3 news article tonight refer to the pilots "political rants" , interesting choice of language. "Rants" is being used to paint the pilots character .
Why would you try to sell an outcome before it's known what it is ?
This will be another 911 if the media and govt don't stop determining the outcome.

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  # 1007843 18-Mar-2014 08:43
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Fred99:   But would disabling ACARS involve leaving your seat and flicking a circuit breaker etc - presumably in the cockpit?  That might not exclude the flight crew, but pretty well kills the idea of a hijacking.


If the hijacker's plan was to knock out both pilots and fly the plane to a destination - and land it himself, then it's just not credible IMO.

Every scenario seems to come to a dead end - unless it was the pilot, and the dead end there is motive.


Disabling the ACARS requires knowledge of the aircraft systems and all that is needed is to know where the settings are in the computer menu.  No need to leave the seat.

Agree it's looking more and more like pilot input to this event, but I still don't think it's suicide.

Re the formation suggested in that article a few posts back, you have to remember these aircraft are doing about 8 nm (~ 15 km) per minute. Your timing to meet the other aircraft would need to be exquisite otherwise you'd probably never catch up.

There's now a news item saying the aircraft dropped down to 5000 feet to avoid radar, this story matches the sighting of the fishermen and those people on the beach that morning. The terrain map provided by the enhanced ground warning system would make it possible to avoid terrain at night.




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  # 1007867 18-Mar-2014 09:06
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 There's now a news item saying the aircraft dropped down to 5000 feet to avoid radar, this story matches the sighting of the fishermen and those people on the beach that morning. The terrain map provided by the enhanced ground warning system would make it possible to avoid terrain at night.


Hmm have to be pretty crappy radar not to catch you at 5000ft, that's where a lot of aircaft fly

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  # 1007877 18-Mar-2014 09:21
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Sidestep:
 There's now a news item saying the aircraft dropped down to 5000 feet to avoid radar, this story matches the sighting of the fishermen and those people on the beach that morning. The terrain map provided by the enhanced ground warning system would make it possible to avoid terrain at night.


Hmm have to be pretty crappy radar not to catch you at 5000ft, that's where a lot of aircaft fly


Agreed 5000 feet isn't that low however the effectiveness on the radar coverage depends on where the radar heads are located, so in that area 5000 ft might have been low enough. It sure would be low enough out across the ocean later on. Then again the 5000 ft thing might have been for other reasons.

I see someone has claimed to have seen wreckage in the Malacca Straits about 450 km northwest of KL in a satellite picture. The pics certainly look like aircraft wreckage but who knows if they have been retouched.

https://twitter.com/sdaglas/status/445191625002602497/photo/1/large




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  # 1007891 18-Mar-2014 09:44
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snowfly: Yet another possible yet interesting theory: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68


Interesting, but there is an assumption that the military primary radar continued to correctly track MH370 after it arrived in the area of SQ68. It could also be true that at that point they misidentified SQ68 as being MH370, and the track from then on is actually of SQ68.


I wonder if he could have had a cellular device connection ...


Cellular range is limited to about 20km, according to some guy on TV last night. I don't know if that is a limitation due to e.g. signal strength (in which case it would also apply to an aircraft) or to line-of-sight (in which case a high-flying aircraft could achieve much greater range).

 

Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OnAir_%28telecommunications%29 says some 777s have an OnAir facility for making cellphone calls or Internet access. Was MH370 equipped with that (probably not... MAS isn't among the airlines listed on that site, but it is dated Dec 2013), or anything similar? If it did, then I guess we have to assume that that was also turned off.

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  # 1007906 18-Mar-2014 10:03
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frankv:
snowfly: Yet another possible yet interesting theory: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68


Interesting, but there is an assumption that the military primary radar continued to correctly track MH370 after it arrived in the area of SQ68. It could also be true that at that point they misidentified SQ68 as being MH370, and the track from then on is actually of SQ68.

[


Highly unlikely, as SQ68 would have been sqwarking a normal transponder signal which they would have been able to match with other radar information. I'd say it would hard to get them mixed up.




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  # 1007921 18-Mar-2014 10:19
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joker97: so ... is this the same "plane" that flew across Malaysia revealed on day 2 of the crisis by somebody which was then denied by the air force which later became "we are not sure if that is the plane" and then now it was definitely the plane?

if so, they simply let unidentified flying objects across their airspace and then go back to sleep?


well an aviation expert shares my sentiments - 

joker97: I'm a little skeptical now that a political motivation is being investigated ... 

Knowing the Malaysian government they can easily plant evidence and blame the opposition as being instigator and causation of the tragedy. Let's see how low they go to cover up ...


and now here comes the spins


no longer about looking for plane ... time to cover up




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  # 1007926 18-Mar-2014 10:32
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My god I hope they find this plane soon!

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