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  # 1357989 3-Aug-2015 16:52
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tdgeek:
MikeAqua: If debris from the plane turns up at multiple locations in varying amounts, then it might be possible to infer the point of origin of the debris to some level of accuracy.


Sounds too hard given the untold number of variables, but I read the other day where it would be very useful to reverse the winds and currents to create a backwards model. So different items of weight, exposure to winds, (ideally less) and reverse the known currents and winds. If they adjust the weightings of current and wind effect until the parts all generally meet up. Also thety are getting biochemists to assess the time in the water, useful if thay cannot get a unique part number of the wing part


Narrowing it down from a drop in the ocean to a drop in the ocean with some uncertainty is still a drop in the ocean




Swype on iOS is detrimental to accurate typing. Apologies in advance.


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  # 1358109 3-Aug-2015 18:57
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joker97:
tdgeek:
MikeAqua: If debris from the plane turns up at multiple locations in varying amounts, then it might be possible to infer the point of origin of the debris to some level of accuracy.


Sounds too hard given the untold number of variables, but I read the other day where it would be very useful to reverse the winds and currents to create a backwards model. So different items of weight, exposure to winds, (ideally less) and reverse the known currents and winds. If they adjust the weightings of current and wind effect until the parts all generally meet up. Also thety are getting biochemists to assess the time in the water, useful if thay cannot get a unique part number of the wing part


Narrowing it down from a drop in the ocean to a drop in the ocean with some uncertainty is still a drop in the ocean


They can backtrack from destination to where they factor in currents, drift efficiency, winds if some are exposed, to end up with a number of large circles of probability. These will overlap, some items may drift in the current more reliably and allow them to narrow down estimates. If I had say a number of items, differing shapes and performances, Id tag them set them 500 miles away from where the landed, and track them for a couple of weeks, to allow some further narrowing of current performance. They know the currents, they know the winds, so they can see how they travel compared to their algorithms. Then allow that to narrow the probability circles. Ideally they would have a pattern that indicates what large water area they went down. Tough, but the article I read seemed confident that it was worthwhile.

Finding some items that drift efficiently would be a big help. And there is a need to scan beaches of anywhere they can, thats not a hard task, compared to flying up and down looking at whitecaps. Anywhere in the drift course could help greatly to fine down drift performances 

 
 
 
 


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  # 1358127 3-Aug-2015 19:29
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It's only a matter of time before we uncover the truth, or at least can pin-point an accurate theory. Glad to see some progress being made. I can't imagine what the families of the missing have gone through, and what the people on the plane must have thought (if they were conscious when 'it' happened). 

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  # 1358216 3-Aug-2015 21:22
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I really do hope they find what they need to find and solve this, but I have my doubts that technology and science will have much help.

If they find it, it will be by chance. Because narrowing down a very massive area to a massive area that is deeper than most technology can reach is still nearly impossible to search.

But that said, neccessity is the mother of invention. Maybe time for google to map the Indian Ocean floor?




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  # 1358243 3-Aug-2015 22:16
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So this was the debris prediction... like everything thing else, it's a drop in an ocean.

If you predict "somewhere near Aussie, India and Africa", you are bound to be close to right.

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  # 1358248 3-Aug-2015 22:26
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tdgeek:
joker97:
tdgeek:
MikeAqua: If debris from the plane turns up at multiple locations in varying amounts, then it might be possible to infer the point of origin of the debris to some level of accuracy.


Sounds too hard given the untold number of variables, but I read the other day where it would be very useful to reverse the winds and currents to create a backwards model. So different items of weight, exposure to winds, (ideally less) and reverse the known currents and winds. If they adjust the weightings of current and wind effect until the parts all generally meet up. Also thety are getting biochemists to assess the time in the water, useful if thay cannot get a unique part number of the wing part


Narrowing it down from a drop in the ocean to a drop in the ocean with some uncertainty is still a drop in the ocean


They can backtrack from destination to where they factor in currents, drift efficiency, winds if some are exposed, to end up with a number of large circles of probability. These will overlap, some items may drift in the current more reliably and allow them to narrow down estimates. If I had say a number of items, differing shapes and performances, Id tag them set them 500 miles away from where the landed, and track them for a couple of weeks, to allow some further narrowing of current performance. They know the currents, they know the winds, so they can see how they travel compared to their algorithms. Then allow that to narrow the probability circles. Ideally they would have a pattern that indicates what large water area they went down. Tough, but the article I read seemed confident that it was worthwhile.

Finding some items that drift efficiently would be a big help. And there is a need to scan beaches of anywhere they can, thats not a hard task, compared to flying up and down looking at whitecaps. Anywhere in the drift course could help greatly to fine down drift performances 


if you drop a wreck in the ocean you can predict where it goes. you will have no idea where it will end up, of course. this is due to the Chaos theory.

if you break up a dandelion on a field in wellington, you can see where they all go. if you find pieces of dandelion somewhere on the field ... try figuring out where it came from.

a classroom experiment will never reverse engineer a model to overcome Chaos theory.




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  # 1358251 3-Aug-2015 22:29
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The barnacles also apparently may help narrow down the location, as they can look at age, and where this particle breed comes from. Also if there are any other living things attached which may only be found in certain parts of the ocean.  Apparently it is what they used in the past with dating shipwrecks.

 
 
 
 


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  # 1358252 3-Aug-2015 22:32
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yes that has a higher chance than dumping wreckage, seeing where it goes, and trying to reverse engineer the path of objects found.

will still be due to chance though! like a barnacle in the ocean!




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  # 1358335 4-Aug-2015 08:52
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joker97: yes that has a higher chance than dumping wreckage, seeing where it goes, and trying to reverse engineer the path of objects found.

will still be due to chance though! like a barnacle in the ocean!


Experts are closing in on it - this one really stands out amongst her peers.

"If the barnacles on the debris are older than the date MH370 went missing, it would rule out it coming from that plane, said Melanie Bishop a professor at the Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University."

Sheer breathtaking genius.

 

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  # 1358392 4-Aug-2015 09:56
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Fred99:
joker97: yes that has a higher chance than dumping wreckage, seeing where it goes, and trying to reverse engineer the path of objects found.

will still be due to chance though! like a barnacle in the ocean!


Experts are closing in on it - this one really stands out amongst her peers.

"If the barnacles on the debris are older than the date MH370 went missing, it would rule out it coming from that plane, said Melanie Bishop a professor at the Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University."

Sheer breathtaking genius.

 


Yeah... I can see the reporter is trying to generate some interest by continuing the mystery. If this part is from MH370, then lots of interesting alternatives are no longer newsworthy, so they're clutching at straws for reasons why it might not be from MH370. And I'm sure quoting the good professor out of context.

Remember you read it here first... It hasn't been ruled that this could be a COUNTERFEIT part (counterfeiting has plagued the aviation industry for years), in which case, even if the serial nuimbers match, it MIGHT NOT be from MH370.


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  # 1358590 4-Aug-2015 12:09
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frankv:
Remember you read it here first... It hasn't been ruled that this could be a COUNTERFEIT part (counterfeiting has plagued the aviation industry for years), in which case, even if the serial nuimbers match, it MIGHT NOT be from MH370.

Are counterfeit parts an actual thing, or was that part of your sarcasm/joke?  I can't tell and it's killing me! :P





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  # 1358649 4-Aug-2015 12:53
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DravidDavid:
frankv:
Remember you read it here first... It hasn't been ruled that this could be a COUNTERFEIT part (counterfeiting has plagued the aviation industry for years), in which case, even if the serial nuimbers match, it MIGHT NOT be from MH370.

Are counterfeit parts an actual thing, or was that part of your sarcasm/joke?  I can't tell and it's killing me! :P


It is. Air crash teams fight that, as the struggle to remain profitable finds smaller and not so smaller airlines getting third party parts. Air Crash Investigation had a full episode on that topic, with a number of real world examples and captures. Safety is hugely compromised.

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  # 1358665 4-Aug-2015 13:34
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frankv:
Fred99:
joker97: yes that has a higher chance than dumping wreckage, seeing where it goes, and trying to reverse engineer the path of objects found.

will still be due to chance though! like a barnacle in the ocean!


Experts are closing in on it - this one really stands out amongst her peers.

"If the barnacles on the debris are older than the date MH370 went missing, it would rule out it coming from that plane, said Melanie Bishop a professor at the Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University."

Sheer breathtaking genius.

 


Yeah... I can see the reporter is trying to generate some interest by continuing the mystery. If this part is from MH370, then lots of interesting alternatives are no longer newsworthy, so they're clutching at straws for reasons why it might not be from MH370. And I'm sure quoting the good professor out of context.

Remember you read it here first... It hasn't been ruled that this could be a COUNTERFEIT part (counterfeiting has plagued the aviation industry for years), in which case, even if the serial nuimbers match, it MIGHT NOT be from MH370.



The media love this story, as they can spin it out and out and out, and it sells clicks. I guess there is the possibility it could be a counterfit part, but what would a damaged part of a 777 be doing in the ocean in the area that MH370 debris could wash up. Especially as no other 777s have crashed in this area before. I guess it could always be a plant by the media, but that would be a despicable thing to do.

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  # 1358719 4-Aug-2015 14:50
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tdgeek:
DravidDavid:
frankv:
Remember you read it here first... It hasn't been ruled that this could be a COUNTERFEIT part (counterfeiting has plagued the aviation industry for years), in which case, even if the serial nuimbers match, it MIGHT NOT be from MH370.

Are counterfeit parts an actual thing, or was that part of your sarcasm/joke?  I can't tell and it's killing me! :P


It is. Air crash teams fight that, as the struggle to remain profitable finds smaller and not so smaller airlines getting third party parts. Air Crash Investigation had a full episode on that topic, with a number of real world examples and captures. Safety is hugely compromised.


Wow, OK.

It's funny, before I knew any of this after reading about the section of wing.  I started to think how aircraft parts got around the world.  I briefly theorised that the part could have simply fallen off a ship in transit or something, as so many other things do.  But discarded my theory as I assumed the likes of Boeing would have kept that highly regulated and transported by other means, or not at all.

Perhaps counterfeit parts were being shipped at the time and this is an unbelievable coincidence.  I hope we get a diagnosis sooner rather than later to end all the speculation though!





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  # 1358776 4-Aug-2015 15:51
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If you have multiple debris items wash up in varying amounts at different locations this gives you a crude vector to a common origin for those debris items.  Combined with hydrodynamics, it's a more useful technique than you might expect.



joker97:
tdgeek:
MikeAqua: If debris from the plane turns up at multiple locations in varying amounts, then it might be possible to infer the point of origin of the debris to some level of accuracy.


Sounds too hard given the untold number of variables, but I read the other day where it would be very useful to reverse the winds and currents to create a backwards model. So different items of weight, exposure to winds, (ideally less) and reverse the known currents and winds. If they adjust the weightings of current and wind effect until the parts all generally meet up. Also thety are getting biochemists to assess the time in the water, useful if thay cannot get a unique part number of the wing part


Narrowing it down from a drop in the ocean to a drop in the ocean with some uncertainty is still a drop in the ocean




Mike

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