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877 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2448234 27-Mar-2020 17:13
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You wot m8?

 

You are drawing conclusions based on developing events, therefore data is gonna be skewed. Two of those countries have case barely a month old, and of course people are dying of the disease faster than they are recovering. And the US, is well, the US. First class sh1t-show of a health system combined with a leadership that values stock prices higher than people's lives.

 

Look at South Korea. One of the first countries affected outside of China, of the current 9332 cases, 4528 have recovered, 139 have died. 3% mortality rate, in-line with the WHO's initial estimates. Sure, there is still plenty of time for that to vary, but it is certainly trending that way.

 

Edit: corrected my poor reading of the data timelines


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Ultimate Geek


  #2448386 27-Mar-2020 20:00
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1024kb:

 

mattwnz:

 

Things have needed to be change for a long time. All the pollution from air travel was unsustainable as it was, and it has been predicted that a pandemic like this was around the corner. We are lucky that this does not have the death rate of small pox, or even ebola, which kills a lot more. 

 

 

Here's some current mortality figures:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/

 

Ebola kills between 25 & 50% of those infected. Infection however, is a lot more difficult than Covid-19

 

 

 

 

You should learn how to do basic maths.





BlinkyBill


 
 
 
 


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  #2448395 27-Mar-2020 20:11
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Handsomedan:

 

MikeB4: Look at the Venice example with the waterways clearing. There is a large environmental cost attached to tourism and travel that maybe the planet cannot afford.

 

 

 

 

I was using that example yesterday and someone said that it's more sediment related than anything with Venice...no paddles/props stirring up the sediment = clear waterways. 

 

Apparently not all pollution related (but undoubtedly there are benefits to the lack of pollutants, too). 

 

 

Thats correct, its just sediment settling. But the point is still valid. If the globe can freeze because of a micro organism, surely we can throw in a period of climate action? Oh, stock markets and GDP, maybe not. Capitalism doesn't seem compatible with problem solving


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  #2448544 28-Mar-2020 09:17
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here's a suggestion - only business class, minimal flight attendant service, self sanitizing toilet cubicle!





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.




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  #2449225 29-Mar-2020 09:34
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Sam Chui's YouTube channel has a video on how airlines are dealing with the Covid crisis.   Airlines are of course turning to air cargo operations.  American Airlines are using their B777-300 planes as freighters.  This video has a short clip of the interior of one of the AA planes.  Large cardboard boxes are put on the seats with tie down straps.  Overhead lockers are being used for small boxes.   According to the blancolirio YouTube channel the B777-300ER has excellent cargo capacity, better than the B787.  He should know because he is an American Airlines co-pilot on the 777.


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  #2449275 29-Mar-2020 10:34
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I think cruise ships probably need to be consigned to the bins of history. Outbreaks are not exactly a new phenomenon and the companies clearly seem to have scant regards for the countries they berth in or passenger welfare in times of crisis. Furthermore, they are just able to contain outbreaks when they happen. 


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Master Geek

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  #2450341 30-Mar-2020 23:32
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I agree that cruise ships should definitely find themselves in hot water.

 

I suspect (as do others) that a long term effect of this is going to be a lot of adoption of working-from-home and remote working, where previously it's been written off as too hard or too unproductive. Some of that is going to stick around even after this lifts.

 

I wonder if a mandatory quarantine period (say, a week) after sufficiently long distance travel (intercontinental) might stick. It's likely that something like this is going to be in place for a while as and when borders start to re-open, and this still allows people to do semi-important travel like visit family, move internationally, do major projects, and some tourism while significantly limiting the spread of future diseases.

 

 

 

Part of the difficulty with this is that there's a lot of people who commute across borders for work, particularly in Europe and between the US/Canada. But business meetings between countries and very short tourism trips could be limited a lot. People moving for a couple of months won't be affected as much.

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2450345 31-Mar-2020 00:20
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SomeoneSomewhere:

 

 

 

I wonder if a mandatory quarantine period (say, a week) after sufficiently long distance travel (intercontinental) might stick. It's likely that something like this is going to be in place for a while as and when borders start to re-open, and this still allows people to do semi-important travel like visit family, move internationally, do major projects, and some tourism while significantly limiting the spread of future diseases.

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMO unless this virus gets a vaccine, or the world eradicates it which seems impossible now, then I think there is going to need to be a 2 week quarantine period that is strictly enforced on international travel, including to/from Oz. We can't trust NZs economy and health of it's citizens on 'trust', that they will fully self isolate etc . I believe Oz are now requiring 2 week quarantine. IMO one week isn't enough as this particular virus can incubate for up to 2 weeks according to the experts, so one week would be a waste of time if people leave quarantine, and could then  be spreading it.  

 

This is an interesting Q&A page below

 

 

 

What percentage of people with coronavirus don't have symptoms? Are they still contagious?   In one study, about 4 in 5 people with confirmed coronavirus in China were likely infected by people who didn’t know they had it, according to research published in the journal “Science.” Full answer at https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-questions-answers/


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Master Geek

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  #2450350 31-Mar-2020 00:46
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One week is borderline to not enough for this virus, agreed. It would likely need to be enforced in hotels adjacent to the airport to avoid using domestic travel. Tying it to inbound plane tickets could help.

 

 

 

But for permanent policy after the current crisis (what this thread was originally about), it could be possible to see a future mandatory quarantine even when not reacting to specific diseases to slow the spread in general, and this one has an unusually long incubation period.

 

 

 

That potentially could be shorter to increase acceptability - a week is enough to be OK-ish on a 3-4 week holiday or as migrant/fly-in-fly-out labour.

 

 

 

It would substantially reduce discretionary/low importance short term trips, and that has other advantages around climate as noted previously.


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  #2450351 31-Mar-2020 01:05
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SomeoneSomewhere:

 

 

 

It would substantially reduce discretionary/low importance short term trips, and that has other advantages around climate as noted previously.

 

 

 

 

It could essentially be the end of cheap frequent travel. Back in the 80's, I recall overseas travel was expensive and not very common, and maybe we will be going back to that. 

 

But whatever is done, it needs to be able to respond to future pandemics quickly, efficiently and impartially.


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  #2450352 31-Mar-2020 01:45
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Isolation, a lack of immigration and economic integration will lead to conflict and war. That could kill and bring misery to more people than this virus.

 

Don't forget the peace we have experienced through globalisation and international travel & engagement.





Speedtest 2019-10-14


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Ultimate Geek


  #2450356 31-Mar-2020 03:34
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I wonder if we’ve been able to deal with any other super-infectious and highly lethal problems like smallpox, or polio, or yellow fever? I wonder if our lack of ability to deal with malaria, or influenza, or measles, has stopped international travel and trade?

 

With anything there are trade-off’s, and because the average person is stupid we have to manage stupidity.

 

The world wants travel, and trade between nations. It is both unrealistic and unreasonable to limit these in the long term. 

 

Some people need to get real.





BlinkyBill


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  #2450358 31-Mar-2020 04:25
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We didn't have anywhere near as much travel and trade when smallpox and polio were a major concern. Malaria and yellow fever are quite geographically constricted and don't have much of an incubation period, so anyone who catches them is going to stay where they are. Modern tolerance for health and safety issues is also orders of magnitude lower than 50 years ago.

 

 

 

Influenza and measles are somewhat concerning, somewhat under control.

 

 

 

There are two facets I see to this:

 

  • If the borders have mandatory isolation or are closed for a year, are people going to get somewhat used to it and accept stricter controls? Businesses will find ways to continue operating or go under.
  • If a million people die in the US, is there going to be a 'never again at any cost' movement? Consider that the last few pandemics have more-or-less fizzled, at least outside of Asia. This one might remind the west that they're still a threat.

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  #2450375 31-Mar-2020 09:01
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I am not going to pretend that I have a crystal ball and can predict what will happen in the future in any great detail. But if there's one thing related to travelling that I won't miss, it's the self-serving and largely useless industry/commercial conferencing "business". Staff at all levels routinely apply to attend -- and are charged hundreds, if not thousands (before other costs such as flight and accommodation) -- to listen to spiels and presentations that can be easily presented online and/or are largely self-promoting in nature. People frequently go with the expectation of enjoying a junket/time away from the office and any networking and other attendant benefits are often hard to measure.

 

The initial downsizing of airlines and hotel chains etc will probably lead to travel becoming more expensive but that's not a bad thing from the perspective of people who want a more high quality and mindful experience. Even so called 5 star hotels with 90+% occupancy (especially if you choose to have breakfast at the restaurants) are frequently horror shows at the best of times.


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Ultimate Geek


  #2450385 31-Mar-2020 09:41
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I used to go to those conferences, and have breakfast at those hotels. The conferences were boring as ... and the breakfasts way over-priced and horrible. So I stopped doing it.

 

Some of my staff want to do the conferences, I pay for a couple a year. I do require an ROI from the conference, new business or new intellectual property or whatever, and I’ve noticed that most of my staff have also given up attending.

 

I would say that most business travel, though, the vast majority, is to visit clients (for service providers) or other parts of the organisation (intra-company) travel. I would go so far as to say over 99% of business travel is not conference related. I can’t see that going away.





BlinkyBill


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