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4744 posts

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  #2505032 15-Jun-2020 14:16
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I think this pretty much sums up why NZ is hesitant

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/14/australia-considering-shorter-covid-19-quarantine-for-students-and-low-transmission-countries

 

"the Coalition was considering halving quarantine times to one week for countries with low rates of Covid-19 infection, including Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea."

 

As soon as NZ  and the Cooks "bubble" , the Cooks are open to any future bubbles NZ makes, and NZ is probably rightly concerned that the Cooks will go from "bubbling" to a country with 0 cases, to being tied into Australia that may have active cases, and shorter quarantine periods for other countries that may still have ( although at low levels) active virus....

 

 

 

This will be a big call for NZ too, are we prepared to give up our "elimination" status to join to OZ which may only be under a "supress" policy...

 

 

 

 




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  #2505159 15-Jun-2020 15:59
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All thank you all for your replies

 

@robjg63 thank you too for the link to that stuff article here (which I note is an opinion piece and with a lot of comments too!) however the author seems to assume that NZ will open up a bubble to Australia before they have elimination and therefore the Cooks would not want to risk getting infections via an NZ-Oz bubble. As @wellygary points out NZ opening a bubble to Australia before they have achieved elimination (or at least sustained no new cases) would be a in my view a risky call including politically with an election coming up

 

I suspect where it stands is the Cooks wants to open to NZ tourists ASAP (without the 2 week quarantine either side) but want to be confident they don't get reinfection from whoever NZ has a bubble with i.e. Australia but NZ is not yet in a position to say when it will have a bubble with Oz because as it stands Oz is appears a way off elimination or sustained no new cases

 

Two risks seem to be in play:

 

The Cooks decide whether to take whatever the risk is of opening to NZ tourists without knowing NZ's timeline and position on an Australian bubble and gets the economic benefit thereof (my assumption is NZ is happy to have a bubble with the Cooks as long as it has no strings attached to the Australia-NZ Bubble?)

 

NZ has to weight up the health risk (& possible political risk) of opening up to Australia before they (Australia) have achieved elimination (or close to it) against the economic benefit

 

I don't think at this stage the Cooks will wait much longer for the NZ Australian bubble if that is indeed the main issue for them


 
 
 
 


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  #2505160 15-Jun-2020 16:07
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xlinknz:

 

I don't think at this stage the Cooks will wait much longer for the NZ Australian bubble if that is indeed the main issue for them

 

 

The Cooks can, and probably will open themselves to NZ in the next few weeks and remove the inbound quarantine requirement,

 

BUT without NZ reciprocating its all for naught, as NZers will still be forced into 14days quarantine upon return

 

- (This potentially also screws up the government's "skilled migrant" changes as NZers returning from the Cooks will potentially use up all the 250/day quarantine Hotel space)




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  #2505171 15-Jun-2020 16:23
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wellygary:

 

xlinknz:

 

I don't think at this stage the Cooks will wait much longer for the NZ Australian bubble if that is indeed the main issue for them

 

 

The Cooks can, and probably will open themselves to NZ in the next few weeks and remove the inbound quarantine requirement,

 

BUT without NZ reciprocating its all for naught, as NZers will still be forced into 14days quarantine upon return

 

- (This potentially also screws up the government's "skilled migrant" changes as NZers returning from the Cooks will potentially use up all the 250/day quarantine Hotel space)

 

 

My assumption is NZ would indeed remove the 14 inbound quarantine requirement in a Cooks-NZ bubble but perhaps NZ first would want to a) know and audit what processes are in place for Covid-19 in the Cooks and b) validate they have indeed have no cases, in other words the detail, which of course can be done without waiting for Australia. Yes good point it also frees up quarantine space for the migrant workers from the Cooks...

 

Also add NZ are likely to insist i.e. want assurance and a commitment from the Cooks that they don't open their side of a Cooks-NZ bubble to somewhere else. Which would be a reasonable request (rule) from NZ (and note NZ has primary responsibility for the Cooks foreign affairs too)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


4744 posts

Uber Geek


  #2505173 15-Jun-2020 16:33
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xlinknz:

 

Also add NZ are likely to insist i.e. want assurance and a commitment from the Cooks that they don't open their side of a Cooks-NZ bubble to somewhere else. Which would be a reasonable request (rule) from NZ (and note NZ has primary responsibility for the Cooks foreign affairs too)

 

 

The Cooks traditional only had external airlinks to NZ/AUS + a flight from LA that they had to pay NZ to operate...

 

Its not likely they will have anything other than NZ/AUS flights.... they danger are fishing crews and summer yacht cruisers

 

 

 

The Cooks COVID testing is pretty good they can do it in-country

 

https://www.health.gov.ck/

 

As of 24 May, of 1732 swabs taken, 1465 tested negative, 246 pending. 14% of Raro population

 

So that will be slightly higher by now, so they will be close to having tested 20% of the Population....


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  #2505294 15-Jun-2020 18:21
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wellygary: they danger are fishing crews and summer yacht cruisers




A point I hadn't considered.

But, um, it's not summer. Is winter yacht cruising a thing?

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  #2505313 15-Jun-2020 19:22
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frankv:
wellygary: they danger are fishing crews and summer yacht cruisers




A point I hadn't considered.

But, um, it's not summer. Is winter yacht cruising a thing?


Yes.

Cruising yacht's arn't even allowed into cook islands ports Dec-March due to the typhoon season.

 
 
 
 




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  #2508357 19-Jun-2020 20:05
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An update

 

Today the Cooks lifted their border restrictions for (inbound) Cooks passport and permit holders. 

 

On tonight TVNZ news the NZ Deputy Prime Minister said a pacific bubble was weeks away stating NZ is working through the detail of the medical facilities etc. 

 

The Cooks deputy PM also said today the Cooks were keen to see whether in the next few weeks NZ has no community transmission (as a result of the recent cases) he also said their economy will "collapse" by Sept without a bubble with NZ

 

It is looking increasingly looking like a Pacific (esp. Cooks) bubble will occur prior to any bubble with Australia. This assumes NZ are happy with the Cooks processes and controls for Covid and NZ has no community transmission.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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  #2508378 19-Jun-2020 20:49
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Before this can be considered we need to get our act together. We should not be putting the Cooks at risk.





Mike

 

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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa




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  #2508480 19-Jun-2020 21:18
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MikeB4:

 

Before this can be considered we need to get our act together. We should not be putting the Cooks at risk.

 

 

Yes and the Cooks leadership have made clear they don't want Covid from anyone. Arguably the Cooks and other possible Pacific bubbles will be better off now after what has occurred in NZ. 

 

 

 

 

 

 




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  #2517046 3-Jul-2020 20:41
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The latest here 

 

 

 

 


5792 posts

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  #2520086 9-Jul-2020 13:53
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Increased risk, trivial gain.

 

1) Segregating travellers to/from the cooks from travellers entering NZ from COVID hot zones is difficult.  I'm sure authorities could implement a temporal separation in the Auckland International terminal but there are still common surfaces and a common air-shed, that different sets of passengers will use sequentially. 

 

2) Questions still remain about the Cook Islands govt to detect and deal with an outbreak.

 

3) Imagine the recriminations if COVID spread from NZ to the CI?  When measles was transferred from NZ to Samoa, we (NZ) were the bad guys - not the Samoan govt that had ignored WHO advice to improve vaccination rates.

 

 

 

The upside is trivial - a small number of people in NZ get to visit the CIs to holiday or visit their friends and family.





Mike

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  #2520090 9-Jul-2020 14:04
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1. Thats the PM's main concern. Bubble is easy, this bit isnt, as you explained

 

2. Cooks say they can

 

3. True, but Cooks say bring it on, at least from a day or so ago

 

 

 

I gather the upside for them is substantial, tourism is about all they have


213 posts

Master Geek


  #2520092 9-Jul-2020 14:08
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tdgeek:

 

I gather the upside for them is substantial, tourism is about all they have

 

 

Yep, but don't worry. If they don't get any tourism money, I'm sure that China would be more than happy to help them out with all sorts of wonderful funding. They seem to love throwing the cash around the Pacific Nations.


5792 posts

Uber Geek


  #2520111 9-Jul-2020 14:38
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tdgeek:

 

1. Thats the PM's main concern. Bubble is easy, this bit isnt, as you explained

 

2. Cooks say they can

 

3. True, but Cooks say bring it on, at least from a day or so ago

 

 

 

I gather the upside for them is substantial, tourism is about all they have

 

 

1) I've read up some more on this.  There is now mounting evidence for airborne transmission with lab evidence suggesting the virus is viable for 4 hours in the air.  

 

2) Not much of an assurance, they are small country with very finite resources

 

3) We really don't want to be responsible for sending COVID there.  COVID has had a severe impact on Pacifica people in the US.





Mike

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