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  #2518793 7-Jul-2020 22:14
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A former colleague also suggested Real Clear Politics, but they seem to be a bit right-wing leaning, and Politico are left-wing leaning. So I guess 538 is a nice middle ground.

 

I think from memory Nate actually predicted Trump would win the 2016 election (or had fairly certain odds on it), and that's exactly what happened, much as I wanted him to be wrong.


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  #2518796 7-Jul-2020 22:19
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quickymart:

I think from memory Nate actually predicted Trump would win the 2016 election (or had fairly certain odds on it), and that's exactly what happened, much as I wanted him to be wrong.

 

 

He predicted a Hillary win, but by a significantly lower margin than others.

 
 
 
 


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  #2518798 7-Jul-2020 22:36
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So all the polls were wrong? I would like to see Joe win, believe me - I think America definitely needs to be lead in a different direction - but after 2016 I'm quite wary of what the polls say. Hell, even Trump himself didn't think he was going to win.


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  #2518810 7-Jul-2020 23:29
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nathan: it seems like "deep state" or "national security state" or "propaganda" are maybe trigger words

'Deep state' is used widely even in relation to things like 'pizza gate'. It has become associated with crazy stuff.

One of your points was about relationships between legislators and suppliers and contractors, like Halliburton etc. This is usually described as the military industrial complex after Eisenhower.

It turns out Eisenhower wanted to give that speech for a couple of years while he was president and did not.

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  #2518812 8-Jul-2020 00:01
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Coincidentally I watched this on Netflix a few weeks ago. The Thirteenth Amendment. It abolished slavery - except for prisoners. One of many factors including the war on drugs leading to a prison industrial complex:

Trailer:


Full official documentary now available free online as a result of black lives matter activism:


It's a bit talking heads at times but the first half at least is well worthwhile as an intro.

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  #2518874 8-Jul-2020 07:57
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Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2518878 8-Jul-2020 08:06
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freitasm:

ROFL... Trump's campaign promises to protect Christ the Redeemer - which is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.


Christ, is there no redemption?

He's more familiar with Eastern European brides / prostitutes with Brazilians than Brazil.


 
 
 
 


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  #2518983 8-Jul-2020 09:37
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The Lincoln Project strikes again:

 


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  #2518989 8-Jul-2020 09:47
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Wow!

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  #2519012 8-Jul-2020 10:04
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gzt: Coincidentally I watched this on Netflix a few weeks ago. The Thirteenth Amendment. It abolished slavery - except for prisoners. One of many factors including the war on drugs leading to a prison industrial complex:

 

Also Biden has his hands all over this mass incarceration, being the author of the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, he even called it the Biden Crime Law at the time.

 

Of course its just a coincidence his donors include health insurance and private prison operators, getting rich off of black people locked up in prison

 

https://theintercept.com/2019/12/31/joe-biden-fundraiser-centene-for-profit-prison/


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  #2519036 8-Jul-2020 10:22
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quickymart:

 

So all the polls were wrong? I would like to see Joe win, believe me - I think America definitely needs to be lead in a different direction - but after 2016 I'm quite wary of what the polls say. Hell, even Trump himself didn't think he was going to win.

 

 

I think Rasmussen called it.

 

They adjust poll results for "likely" voters as opposed to "eligible" voters, which tends to make their poll favour Republicans.  They get criticised for adjusting polls like that - but it seems to work - especially given the poor turnout in polls.

 

The Trump campaign was pretty successful in convincing Bernie supporters and Black voters that they'd been betrayed - so not voting was a "protest vote" (no it isn't).

 

This time - who knows?  There's been a lot of coverage of voter-suppression, BLM will have motivated voters, plus there's a pandemic going on.  Rasmussen is predicting a Biden win, and puts Biden ahead of Trump in approval polls by 8 points.

 

RCP aggregates other polls and betting odds.  Betting odds have Biden ahead by about 18 points.  RCP electoral college polls have Biden at 222, Trump at 125, and 195 "toss ups".

 

Senate votes polls have Reps ahead by one, with 5 "toss ups".  That's a problem - even if Dems do have a majority, they can't get the supermajority needed for constitutional reform - which is needed to prevent a future Trump - or a worse monster.

 

 


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  #2519038 8-Jul-2020 10:27
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nathan:

 

gzt: Coincidentally I watched this on Netflix a few weeks ago. The Thirteenth Amendment. It abolished slavery - except for prisoners. One of many factors including the war on drugs leading to a prison industrial complex:

 

Also Biden has his hands all over this mass incarceration, being the author of the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, he even called it the Biden Crime Law at the time.

 

Of course its just a coincidence his donors include health insurance and private prison operators, getting rich off of black people locked up in prison

 

https://theintercept.com/2019/12/31/joe-biden-fundraiser-centene-for-profit-prison/

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violent_Crime_Control_and_Law_Enforcement_Act

 

This should be read too : https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-let-police-groups-write-his-crime-bill-now-his-agenda-has-changed/2020/06/08/82ab969e-a434-11ea-8681-7d471bf20207_story.html

 

"Biden is effectively distancing himself from some of his work with law enforcement groups — and from his own comments about not caring about the socioeconomic background of those who turn to crime — while promising to undo some of the very measures he helped enact 26 years ago. Biden last year said some parts of the bill had failed, while others had succeeded"

 

 

 

Everybody should watch "13th".  There are parallels here (NZ).

 

Beware any politician who plays the "Law and Order" card.


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  #2519095 8-Jul-2020 11:36
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That video is actually quite effective Fred. Trump is quite paranoid eh?


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  #2519098 8-Jul-2020 11:47
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Lincoln project is a Republican effort to get Biden in power?




Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2519099 8-Jul-2020 11:48
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No, it's a Republican effort to get rid of Trump.





 

 

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