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I, for one, hope it's not a repeat of 2016 too.
geekIT:
As I said, Trumpers are as thick as two short planks.
This is the same sentiment that helped get Trump elected. By declaring anyone who supports Trump as an idiot understandably riles them up, makes them feel their opinions are ignored, and so encourages them to vote Trump en masse.
Undoubtedly; many of his supporters are ignorant - but there are also some very smart and educated people who support Trump as well. I don't understand why an intelligent person would support Trump; but neither do the Democrats which is why they lost in 2016 and why I predict this years election will still be uncomfortably close. I'm not writing off the very real possibility of another Trump victory. The Democrats really have learned nothing from 2016, and if they win it will be from anti-Trump voters and not pro-Biden voters. The Democrats think that these two types of voters are the same, but they really aren't.
A Biden victory would be a return to the "old normal", which is the same status quo that lead to the rise of Trump in the first place. We could easily be looking at a single term presidency for Biden, followed by Trump 2.0 - someone with more brains, charisma, and stable temperament than Trump - but with the same dangerous agenda.
Another political gift to the Democrats:
The Washington Post - White House signals defeat in pandemic as coronavirus outbreak roils Pence’s office
today
The presidential campaign was roiled this weekend by a fresh outbreak of the novel coronavirus at the White House that infected at least five aides or advisers to Vice President Pence ...
Further complicating Trump’s campaign-trail pitch was an extraordinary admission Sunday from White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows that the administration had effectively given up on trying to slow the virus’s spread.
“We’re not going to control the pandemic,” Meadows said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigations.”
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden sought to capitalize on the remark.
“This wasn’t a slip by Meadows; it was a candid acknowledgment of what President Trump’s strategy has clearly been from the beginning of this crisis: to wave the white flag of defeat and hope that by ignoring it, the virus would simply go away,” Biden said in a statement. “It hasn’t, and it won’t.” ...
Sideface
Paul1977:
The Democrats really have learned nothing from 2016, and if they win it will be from anti-Trump voters and not pro-Biden voters. The Democrats think that these two types of voters are the same, but they really aren't.
The Democrats wouldn't have got to the (hopefully winning) position they're in with a candidate who was perceived to threaten American capitalist values or promoted social liberal policies that challenged "the establishment" - be that "the markets", the mainstream churches, the 2A zealots.
Fred99:
The Democrats wouldn't have got to the (hopefully winning) position they're in with a candidate who was perceived to threaten American capitalist values or promoted social liberal policies that challenged "the establishment" - be that "the markets", the mainstream churches, the 2A zealots.
I don't know that I agree. If there was ever a time for real change it's when the current President is so disliked by so many. Biden himself said they could run Mickey Mouse and beat Trump. The fact that no-one is predicting a landslide speaks volumes.
The Democrats could have spent the past four years grooming a younger more dynamic candidate, and coming up with policies that could make a real difference (and present them in a way that would appeal to voters). Bernie was too old, and perhaps too left, but he had a lot of support (just not from within the Democratic establishment) - a younger candidate running a similar platform I believe would have had a good chance. But instead the Democrats have been solely focused for four years espousing how terrible Trump is, and running with a platform of "let's go back to how it was before Trump" with a candidate who couldn't be more "party establishment" if he tried.
In 2016 America wanted change. Just because the cure has proven worse than the disease, doesn't make living with the disease a viable solution.
I see the US 2020 election as an enormous missed opportunity.
I respectfully disagree. I have only my opinion, no special expertise, but I would imagine that the Democrats see this election as the one last chance to save the soul of America, and they will do everything they can not to risk it. If they can just get Trump out, and win a majority in the Senate, they have a chance of steering the country in a different direction. Everything else comes later, maybe under other administrations, but if they can’t get the presidency and Senate back, there won’t be a later. So they are doing everything possible not to frighten potential voters with any whiff of anything radical. It is just good old safe Joe, back to the 1950’s, no boat rocking here. I think it is a good strategy, and probably the best chance they have.
Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos
The Democrats wouldn't have got to the (hopefully winning) position they're in with a candidate who was perceived to threaten American capitalist values or promoted social liberal policies that challenged "the establishment" - be that "the markets", the mainstream churches, the 2A zealots.
Rikkitic:
I respectfully disagree. I have only my opinion, no special expertise, but I would imagine that the Democrats see this election as the one last chance to save the soul of America, and they will do everything they can not to risk it. If they can just get Trump out, and win a majority in the Senate, they have a chance of steering the country in a different direction. Everything else comes later, maybe under other administrations, but if they can’t get the presidency and Senate back, there won’t be a later. So they are doing everything possible not to frighten potential voters with any whiff of anything radical. It is just good old safe Joe, back to the 1950’s, no boat rocking here. I think it is a good strategy, and probably the best chance they have.
We're probably not going to agree on this one, but that's what discussions are for.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but most polls (for what they were worth) during the 2016 primaries predicted Sanders beating Trump by a larger margin than Clinton if he had secured the nomination. But Clinton had the establishment backing her. That tells me that America was ready for a lot of the change that Sanders was pushing, but the Democratic party establishment didn't want it (I won't speculated as the the reasons for this).
If America was ready to vote for that kind of change before seeing what Trump did to the presidency, they would surely be ready for it after.
Biden and the Democrats are certainly preferable to Trump and the Republicans, but in my view they could have done so much more but chose not to.
@Rikkitic can you honestly say that you don't think the democrats could have come up with a better candidate than Biden, or a better strategy than "at least I'm not Trump"?
Paul1977:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but most polls (for what they were worth) during the 2016 primaries predicted Sanders beating Trump by a larger margin than Clinton if he had secured the nomination. But Clinton had the establishment backing her. That tells me that America was ready for a lot of the change that Sanders was pushing, but the Democratic party establishment didn't want it (I won't speculated as the the reasons for this).
Sanders was as unelectable in 2016 as he is now. The Republican candidate, whoever he was/is, just needs to shout 'Communist' and it's game over.
In 2016 a large number of Americans disliked Clinton so either stayed at home or voted for Trump. Also there were all the Democrats who didn't want Trump but thought Clinton would win anyway, as the polls were saying, so didn't turn out. He won by accident.
And parties don't groom a candidate. They rise through the ranks as their personality (not policy) starts to resonate with people and the big money starts backing them. If the Dems had anybody that would have happened but it hasn't so they are stuck with geriatric Joe.
IMO if it wasn't for Covid-19 we'd be staring down the barrel of another 4 years of Chump regardless of who the Dems candidate was.
Interesting Opinion piece in my local Bay of Plenty Times.
Its behind a paywall so I have C&P
Rob Rattenbury: What will middle America do if Trump loses election?
26 Oct, 2020 05:00 AM
OPINION
With the New Zealand general election now done and dusted for the next three years it is time to glance further afield to the biggest show in town this year, the American general election.
In the post-World War II New Zealand of the 50s and 60s America was never far from the hearts and minds of many New Zealanders.
My parents' generation showed ongoing gratitude to America for stationing many thousands of troops here from 1941 onwards in an effort to stem possible invasion from Japan.
There was a real fear of invasion, not discounted for many years after the war until Japanese records showed that the possibility of being able to invade New Zealand and Australia was simply not feasible in terms of logistics and man power.
Many New Zealand families "adopted" American troops, bringing them into their homes to provide the young men with some form of comfort.
Most young Americans, far from home, reportedly felt honoured and privileged to know such families, many going on to have life-long friendships and marriages with New Zealanders.
Growing up in Wellington one was constantly reminded of the American influence on our way of life with regular ship visits from the United States Navy and Coastguard, nuclear-powered and probably nuclear-armed.
We were surrounded by American culture, films, shows, comics, literature, music, milk bars and American fashion. In the late 60s British fashion tended to rule in New Zealand for some reason but there was an American influence as well.
Many of my generation can remember where we were when President Kennedy was murdered in Dallas in 1963; we felt like one of our own politicians had died. Kennedy was popular here, he had fought in the Pacific, and he was the first American President of Irish Catholic extraction, something many New Zealanders identified with at that time.
America was supposedly our friend and ally. We were in ANZUS, a military treaty with America and Australia. Our troops fought in Vietnam resulting in loss of life, serious injury and life-long illness for many brave men.
In the mid-1980s New Zealand asked the Unites States to only send non-nuclear-powered and non-nuclear-armed navy ships to New Zealand.
This polite insistence resulted in New Zealand being booted out of ANZUS and down-graded as a country from ally to "friend". So much for friendship founded in adversity. From that time New Zealand has regarded America in a different, distant light.
Any contact with the American government is always on their terms. Questioning policy results in being shown the door.
Like New Zealand, Australia and Canada, America was mainly colonised by the British, the local indigenous people were subjugated or exterminated, and the colonisers were all white.
The similarities in terms of the white gene base and culture are overwhelming but America has never come to grips with its past history, including slavery which still shames its culture to this day.
The other three nations are far from perfect but do not seem to have the overwhelming social and class problems America has together with a stubborn self-belief of exceptionalism on the world stage.
Many Americans sincerely believe that they are the best, brightest and bravest people on the planet when the truth is somewhat different of course. I have heard of another people who thought that in the 1930s.
I have tried to work out what makes America tick by reading its history and some contemporary authors, admittedly mainly left wing as the American right wing scares me somewhat due to its Christian fundamentalism, ignorance of the world and its affairs and outright hatred and open condemnation of anybody slightly different.
Michael Moore, Joe Bageant and Bill Bryson are three authors who write of contemporary "Middle America" in not very glowing terms. Their books all precede Trump's Presidency.
According to these men lack of easy access to university education, appalling literacy rates, including among high school graduates, religious bigotry, viewing state-funded health care, housing and education as communism, low or no employment, below poverty level wages, poor health and short lives have been the lot for large areas of America for many years.
A willingness to resort to deadly violence against anyone, including authority, always simmers under the surface.
Middle America is predominately Republican and proud of it, proud of supposedly being the mightiest nation on the planet, proud of sending their under-educated children to endless futile wars. To die to protect the American way of life in some hell-hole that most cannot even find on the map.
Middle America is Donald Trump's loyal base. He knows it and he knows how to use and motivate them. He will stoke the fires of their prejudices and play to fears based on ignorance of the world around them. If he loses the election what will middle America do?
EDIT: Spacing
Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.
SJB:
Sanders was as unelectable in 2016 as he is now.
Trump should have been unelectable too. We'll never know how Sanders might have faired against Trump in 2016, but as I said I believe the polls showed he would have done better than Clinton so I don't think you can say he was unelectable.
And parties don't groom a candidate. They rise through the ranks as their personality (not policy) starts to resonate with people and the big money starts backing them. If the Dems had anybody that would have happened but it hasn't so they are stuck with geriatric Joe.
I don't know that it's that simple. I think it would be naïve to think the the "higher ups" in the democratic party don't have a lot of influence over who ends up being the candidate. I can't see Hilary Clinton securing the 2016 nomination based on her glowing personality.
Paul1977:
@Rikkitic can you honestly say that you don't think the democrats could have come up with a better candidate than Biden, or a better strategy than "at least I'm not Trump"?
Candidate selection was a lengthy and laborious process, with a number of youngish, progressiveish, traditionally appealing prospects winding their way through the painfully protracted primary campaigns. One by one, they fell by the wayside in the course of this process. What happened was a process of elimination. Biden eventually emerged from this as the candidate with the best chance of defeating Trump. Everything in life is a matter of time and position. The United States is full of people who could make better presidents than Biden, but Biden is the one who came out of the primary process at this time and place and that makes him the choice of the people. He may not be 'best', but he is the battered shark that survived and came out on top, and that is how the system works. I don't think it is necessarily a bad thing.
Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos
Paul1977:I can't see Hilary Clinton securing the 2016 nomination based on her glowing personality.
Well they expected her to win against someone who - when "personality" crops up as a description - is accurately followed with the word "disorder".
Rikkitic:
Candidate selection was a lengthy and laborious process, with a number of youngish, progressiveish, traditionally appealing prospects winding their way through the painfully protracted primary campaigns. One by one, they fell by the wayside in the course of this process. What happened was a process of elimination. Biden eventually emerged from this as the candidate with the best chance of defeating Trump. Everything in life is a matter of time and position. The United States is full of people who could make better presidents than Biden, but Biden is the one who came out of the primary process at this time and place and that makes him the choice of the people. He may not be 'best', but he is the battered shark that survived and came out on top, and that is how the system works. I don't think it is necessarily a bad thing.
That just makes me think the process is faulty. It really seems like Biden is the nominee because it's "his turn".
I understand that Biden was the "last man standing", but why? He's a poor public speaker, and doesn't display a great deal of charisma. I'll admit that I don't have great understanding of the primary process, but he seems more the choice of the Democratic Party than the "choice of the people".
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