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  #1686756 12-Dec-2016 22:21
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Getting a bit off topic here, IMO.

 

Closer to topic, Trump's starting to annoy the Chinese re Taiwan. 

 

I note on the English language Chinese news sites, there's mention now of Trump's posturing, but still overshadowed by photos of joint Chinese:US naval exercises off San Diego, mention of the "WTO being the best way to expand trade" etc. To me, those are subtle but clear messages.

 

I don't agree with the One China policy, but Trump better realise that China is actually a friend in a world where the USA needs friends.  Now isn't the time to be making the friendship conditional IMO.


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  #1686760 12-Dec-2016 22:37
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I'm amazed at the ability of the President-elect to cause so much destruction on the internet 10,000 miles from New York. I can only applaud him. We lost the war on Trump.





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


 
 
 
 


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  #1686762 12-Dec-2016 22:48
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Rikkitic:

 

What is credible about a deterrent that destroys the whole world? What point does that make? To scale it down, imagine again two people with guns pointed at each other. They are entirely capable of destroying each other. Now imagine that one also has a bazooka. So what? What does that add? You can only be dead once. An effective deterrent is one that costs the opponent more than they want to give up. More than that is just literally overkill. Again, what is the point?

 

 

It's based on game theory. Yes, both sides can be annihilated. But both sides also know there's no escape because once one fires there's ample time for the other to fire. So what's the profit? Nobody wins. Playing to not win is not worth it. The best outcome is not to play. So both sides keep their guns pointed at each, certain that the other is not going to fire first because that would be suicidal.





 

 

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  #1686768 12-Dec-2016 23:28
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freitasm:

 

Rikkitic:

 

What is credible about a deterrent that destroys the whole world? What point does that make? To scale it down, imagine again two people with guns pointed at each other. They are entirely capable of destroying each other. Now imagine that one also has a bazooka. So what? What does that add? You can only be dead once. An effective deterrent is one that costs the opponent more than they want to give up. More than that is just literally overkill. Again, what is the point?

 

 

It's based on game theory. Yes, both sides can be annihilated. But both sides also know there's no escape because once one fires there's ample time for the other to fire. So what's the profit? Nobody wins. Playing to not win is not worth it. The best outcome is not to play. So both sides keep their guns pointed at each, certain that the other is not going to fire first because that would be suicidal.

 

 

 

 

With some close calls when one side mistakenly thinks the other side might have launched a first-strike.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls

 

They only need to completely stuff up once.


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  #1686770 12-Dec-2016 23:39
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darylblake: The whole India Pakistan argument is the same. 2 big guns pointing at each other. If one fires they both die. They may as well detonate their own bimbs and blow themselves up. Same as Cuban missile crisis and same with dprk. Kim fatty the third is not gonna attack china because well that's just stupid. He won't stack the USA because well that's just as stupid. And an attack on South Korea or Japan is the same as attacking the USA. Remember Kim is educated, it's a geopolitical bargaining chip, the fact he has these horrendous weapons does make other countries uneasy, however if he ever considered using them he would be signing his entire countries death warrant. So it is unlikely.

What I think trump is getting at is he wants to "renew" the arsenals. This means more tactical weapons will be developed. Rather than giant bombs they are just somewhat largeish SLBMs with tactical guidance systems.

 

It's even more crazy when you think that until the Indians insisted on it in 1947, there was no India and Pakistan, just India!






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  #1686772 12-Dec-2016 23:52
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I am familiar with game theory (the concept, not the details). I still think it is absurd. But there are different aspects to this discussion. I wasn't referring to the US-Soviet stand-off initially, but to an item I read the other day (no citation, sorry) that 200 warheads exploded anywhere on earth would be sufficient to end human civilisation, and possibly all higher life forms. The article pointed this out in reference to the confrontation between India and Pakistan, with the implication that the situation there is more unstable, and potentially more life-threatening, than anywhere else and also at any other time.

 

I just think that the notion that you can protect yourself by threatening your enemy is self-defeating in the long term. The way to come to terms with an opponent is not to point a gun at them. Also, the cold war only happened once. The fact that no-one shot first could be a fluke. There is no guarantee it would go that way a second time. Game theory is just that, a theory. What if it is wrong?

 

Finally, we  have the emergence of ISIS, which has rightly been called a death cult. It and other organisations like it seem able to produce an endless stream of fanatics glad to die for their cause as long as they can take others with them. I am sure there are plenty of these people who would have no hesitation to destroy the whole planet and everyone on it if they had the power. These are not people concerned with game theory, or their own destruction. Suicide is a higher calling to them. If any of them ever get their hands on some of Pakistan's bombs, what is there to restrain them? Certainly not the fear of their own deaths.

 

I think the notion that we can somehow defend ourselves by accumulating bigger and better bombs is fundamentally silly, as well as dangerous. The problem is to get rid of the bombs we already have.

 

 

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  #1686775 12-Dec-2016 23:59
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Some things in life are just beyond our control.

 

Not to accept that merely invites madness, I think.






 
 
 
 


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  #1686801 13-Dec-2016 06:12
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Back on topic. Japan has ratified the TPP:

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/why-did-japans-parliament-ratify-dead-tpp-agreement

It's not going away. Occuring after meeting with Trump, there is speculation that Trump will more or less strike or claim to strike the bits he does not want from what the USA ratifies and keep the bits that ahem make america great and ratify that.

Alternatively to a large extent the Trump administration could do nothing. It is the laws and practices of foreign nations which would be bound by ratifying TPP in their own countries. Presumably Trump could hand out quid pro quo as he pleases.

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  #1686898 13-Dec-2016 10:12
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Is that correct? My understanding of TPP is that it only comes into effect if (nearly) all signatories ratify it and that the terms already agreed cannot be altered in any way.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  #1686937 13-Dec-2016 10:33
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Rikkitic:

 

Is that correct? My understanding of TPP is that it only comes into effect if (nearly) all signatories ratify it and that the terms already agreed cannot be altered in any way.

 

 

NZ has recently changed (or is in the process of changing?) some laws around IP to comply with TPPA. AFAIK this is going ahead despite the probable failure of TPPA. Lose-lose.

 

 


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  #1686939 13-Dec-2016 10:34
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Rikkitic:

 

Is that correct? My understanding of TPP is that it only comes into effect if (nearly) all signatories ratify it and that the terms already agreed cannot be altered in any way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah - but it doesn't preclude a bilateral negotiation between say Japan and USA, where Trump could claim he'd made ground thus could now reverse his stance on TPP.

 

I personally very much doubt that though.  TPPA in retrospect was very much about increasing US influence in the region at the expense of China.  Despite that suiting Trump's general paranoia about China, Trump's misunderstood the thing from day one.  I think Japan ratifying TPP was probably just a low cost or commitment poke in the eye to China.


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  #1687034 13-Dec-2016 12:17
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  #1687043 13-Dec-2016 12:33
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They sure are having a lot of fun with him.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  #1692031 19-Dec-2016 08:38
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I don't know if I should start a new thread but can anyone explain the Russian hacking that the CIA and FBI are supremely confident and sure of ...

 

There are 2 issues

 

- the hacking itself (which I have not much ideas of)

 

- did the hacking elect Trump instead of Clinton (if there were no hacking)

 

- is the CIA going to assassinate Trump by the end of the year





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #1692039 19-Dec-2016 08:54
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The hacking certainly occurred. No doubt about that.

 

There was an orchestrated campaign against Clinton. Fake news probably did as much to get Trump elected as any hacking. The FBI did its part as well.

 

One can only hope. At the rate he is going, there is a good possibility of that.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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