An optimistic prediction ? ...
The Atlantic - Why Trump Won’t Win
15 Dec 2023
Writing for the Atlantic, columnist Hussein Ibish suggests that history is not on Trump's side and that the MAGA movement is winding down.
"Trump has a strong record of electoral losses with his 2016 upset, which apparently surprised even him, as the lone exception. His party suffered the standard midterm defeat in 2018. Then he lost the 2020 election. Then Republicans lost control of the Senate after Georgia’s runoff in early 2021. Then his party was denied the standard midterm victory in 2022, barely eking out a four-vote House majority thanks in large part to his own handpicked, election-denying candidates, almost all of whom lost in competitive races.
"There is no obvious reason that 2024 should constitute a sudden break from this pattern of MAGA defeat.
"Trump’s record as president and since - January 6, the devastating testimony from his former senior officials, the ongoing trials, and whatever additional self-inflicted wounds he delivers - will contrast very poorly with Biden’s track record and steady leadership.
"By November, enough Americans will surely understand that they aren’t voting for Biden over Trump so much as voting for the Constitution over a would-be authoritarian.
"The case against Trump’s reelection is obvious and damning. As long as his opponents prosecute that case - and they will - Trump isn’t going to win."