The New York Times - Trump Wants Big Diplomatic Wins. Here Are the Odds.
Sept. 12, 2019
John R. Bolton has left the Situation Room and has left a series of gambles behind that President Trump must manage between now and Election Day.
Goal: Total, complete and verifiable denuclearization, including an end to North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile program.
Prospects for a win: Next to none.
Goal: Prevent Iran from getting within reach of a nuclear weapon.
Prospects for a win: Not bad.
Goal: Preside over a peace deal in order to withdraw American troops.
Prospects for a win: Fairly high.
Goal: It’s murky. The president constantly mixes his trade goals and his security concerns, often to the detriment of both.
Prospects for a win: Poor.
Goal: Get the region to agree to the Kushner peace plan.
Prospects for a win: On life support.
Goal: It’s completely unclear. Surrounded by advisers who argue for containment, Mr. Trump overlooks offenses and argues for reintegrating Russia.
Prospects for a win: Mr. Trump is not playing poker here - he’s playing solitaire.