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Glurp
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  Reply # 1670163 13-Nov-2016 17:21
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Here is an intriguing speculation: I was just watching an item on Paddy Power's losses and it suddenly occurred to me that maybe some of the pollsters actually did get it right, but didn't believe their result and were afraid of looking foolish so they massaged the numbers to produce the 'right' answer.

 

 





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  Reply # 1670164 13-Nov-2016 17:23
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joker97:

 

 

 

Is (common) sense defined by a textbook you get from a library or does it need cultural context?

 

 

No / neither.  The choice (to vote for Trump) was clearly not logical if you didn't want to be "ruled by elites".

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1670173 13-Nov-2016 17:42
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Fred99:

 

joker97:

 

Is (common) sense defined by a textbook you get from a library or does it need cultural context?

 

 

No / neither.  The choice (to vote for Trump) was clearly not logical if you didn't want to be "ruled by elites".

 

 

You ask the Americans! There's something deeper than that. Since the horror which I knew was possible right from day 1, happened, I've been trying to get my head around why the Clintons are hated so much. Still haven't gotten to the truth, but mentions of all sorts of heinous unprintable atrocities etc etc etc, still digging (no I don't spend that much time on this just trying to make sense of this, from an average American's point of view). Not that I care too much, I don't dwell on things that cannot be changed. But the fact that nobody heeded the warning bells and remove Hillary when Trump was all over her, well, it's their fault. 





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  Reply # 1670190 13-Nov-2016 18:06
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@networkn:

 

I hate to break it to you, 1/2 of America voted for Trump. 1 in every 2 people. 

 

 

I hate to break it to you, but 1/2 of the people eligible to vote didn't, so you're wrong. It's actually 1/4 of America voted for Trump, 1 in every 4 people.





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  Reply # 1670209 13-Nov-2016 18:33
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freitasm:

@networkn:


I hate to break it to you, 1/2 of America voted for Trump. 1 in every 2 people. 



I hate to break it to you, but 1/2 of the people eligible to vote didn't, so you're wrong. It's actually 1/4 of America voted for Trump, 1 in every 4 people.



There is a lesson here, vote vote vote or you can end deep in the sticky stuff




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  Reply # 1670213 13-Nov-2016 18:52
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Or Mike will buy a new car. What car did you buy?





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  Reply # 1670215 13-Nov-2016 18:58
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freitasm:

 

@networkn:

 

I hate to break it to you, 1/2 of America voted for Trump. 1 in every 2 people. 

 

 

I hate to break it to you, but 1/2 of the people eligible to vote didn't, so you're wrong. It's actually 1/4 of America voted for Trump, 1 in every 4 people.

 

 

The people who don't vote, they don't count. If you don't vote, you get whatever the others voted for and you stay nice and quiet about it, since you opted to not have an opinion.

 

I have little or no patience with people who don't vote, who then complain.

 

So I stand by my comment that half of Americans voted for Trump.


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  Reply # 1670235 13-Nov-2016 19:06
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What about those who were disenfranchised by the new voting restriction laws, or were intimidated by the goons supposedly there (on questionable authority) to monitor for voter 'irregularities'?

 

 





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  Reply # 1670251 13-Nov-2016 19:50
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Rikkitic:

 

What about those who were disenfranchised by the new voting restriction laws, or were intimidated by the goons supposedly there (on questionable authority) to monitor for voter 'irregularities'?

 

 

 



 

Or the ones that couldn't get time off work to vote on the work day because Republicans don't want elections on the weekend,  the 1/3 of black males excluded from voting under 13th amendment.

 

It's a kind of "pretend democracy" in the US.  NZ is much better since MMP.  Despite flaws and complaints - look how stable it's been compared to much of the rest of the developed world over the past 20 years.

 

Lesson to NZ on what not to do when we become a Republic - don't hobble democracy in the future by writing a constitution which is so fixed, then as language, customs, and technology shift around it, you're forever locked in a past century. (ToW is bad enough).


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  Reply # 1670252 13-Nov-2016 19:56
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Rikkitic:

 

What about those who were disenfranchised by the new voting restriction laws, or were intimidated by the goons supposedly there (on questionable authority) to monitor for voter 'irregularities'?

 

 

 

 

 

 

YEah supposedly doesn't mean much to me. We are talking about a TINY TINY fraction of people in my opinion if any at all. 


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  Reply # 1670258 13-Nov-2016 20:01
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networkn:

 

 

 

 

 

YEah supposedly doesn't mean much to me. We are talking about a TINY TINY fraction of people in my opinion if any at all. 

 

 

If it "doesn't mean that much to you" - how on earth are you able to offer the opinion that it's TINY TINY etc?  

 

 

In 2016, 14 states will have new voting restrictions in place for the first time in a presidential election. The new laws range from strict photo ID requirements to early voting cutbacks to registration restrictions.

 

Those 14 states are: Alabama, Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

 

(This number decreased from 15 to 14 when the D.C. Circuit blocked a voter registration requirement in Alabama, Georgia, and Kansas on September 9, 2016. Georgia was removed, but Alabama and Kansas remain on the map because certain restrictions remain in place. Other recent court rulings have impacted the map: North Carolina and North Dakota were removed after courts blocked restrictive laws. Despite a recent court victory mitigating the impact of Texas’s photo ID law, it is still included because the requirement is more restrictive than what was in place for the 2012 presidential election.)  

 

This is part of a broader movement to curtail voting rights, which began after the 2010 election, when state lawmakers nationwide started introducing hundreds of harsh measures making it harder to vote.

 

Overall, 20 states have new restrictions in effect since the 2010 midterm election. Since 2010, a total of 10 states have more restrictive voter ID laws in place (and six states have strict photo ID requirements) seven have laws making it harder for citizens to register, six cut back on early voting days and hours, and three made it harder to restore voting rights for people with past criminal convictions.

 


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  Reply # 1670259 13-Nov-2016 20:02
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Fred99:

 

 

 

Or the ones that couldn't get time off work to vote on the work day because Republicans don't want elections on the weekend,  the 1/3 of black males excluded from voting under 13th amendment.

 

 

Not sure what you mean by 1/3 of males who can't vote because of 13th amendment? Reference please? 

 

As for people who can't get time off work, why can't those people mail in votes? 


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  Reply # 1670260 13-Nov-2016 20:02
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Fred99:

 

 

 

They're clearly happy with that part of the status quo - having the rich rule.  What they don't like are blacks and women in power, hispanics, latino, muslims.  That's what they want Trump to deliver on as a path to "Make America Great Again.

 

By the way, the provisional figure on voter turnout was 57%.  Trump and Clinton got about 26% each support from the voter age population.  Do you think one in four US citizens might be happy with a racist, misogynist, xenophobic president?  I do, but it's much higher than that in Alabama.

 

Democracy has probably just set the USA back 50 years.  

 

 

I think it's more complicated than that. And simpler.
It was, and is, just a huuge protest vote. At first from both sides. If Bernie'd made it to the end maybe he'd have carried it instead..(and things would be so much better - from our point of view)

But I still feel cautiously optimistic. The US system – both the political structure and the economy - is resilient.
And the US economic swamp was settling into stratified layers with not much oxygen in the middle – let alone at the bottom.

I've just talked with some guys in the US I've known for years (these days we stay in contact through Skype/Facetime or their wives and my wife's social media and Facebook)
Apart from the relatively liberal ones out in California, most of them – in small town Idaho, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Kentucky, are now non-repentant Trump voters...

Turns out - not because they expect him to follow through on wild election promises, I don't think many actually believed that crap - but because he was a disruptor.
So you can say, they – at least – pretty much just did it for a stir... And he's done what they wanted - damaging both sides before he's even in office.

These guys traditionally vote Republican but that party'd become too stale – conservative, old fashioned, and particularly too religious for them. So they got behind Trump as soon as he began gaining traction in the primaries.

First the Republicans - Then they realised he could take on the Democrats.. who they see as bogged down by political correctness, so busy supporting women, gays, minorities, multiculturalism, immigrants etc they'd forgotten about the average guy who works 6 day weeks and pays taxes.

 

These are white, educated, employed, gen Xers. Aged in their 40's – maybe coming up on 50, pretty much normal middle aged dudes, and mostly married with kids.
They're not dumb Appalachian hillbillies, or racist bigots. One's actually a Kiwi who emigrated and took on US citizenship..

 

I'm pretty sure the risk they're taking with their country's crossed their minds, but they figure, if he's a complete disaster, his own Republicans will impeach him or force him to step down rather than risk being destroyed, and Pence'll take over. And, just maybe, at the next election, a new fresh era in American politics will be ushered in. Guess we'll find out.

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1670296 13-Nov-2016 21:08
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Sidestep:

 



First the Republicans - Then they realised he could take on the Democrats.. who they see as bogged down by political correctness, so busy supporting women, gays, minorities, multiculturalism, immigrants etc they'd forgotten about the average guy who works 6 day weeks and pays taxes.

 

These are white, educated, employed, gen Xers. Aged in their 40's – maybe coming up on 50, pretty much normal middle aged dudes, and mostly married with kids.
They're not dumb Appalachian hillbillies, or racist bigots. One's actually a Kiwi who emigrated and took on US citizenship..

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's quite an easy message to sell - that "PC" one, that "supporting" the disadvantaged hurts "joe sixpack".  

 

There is a bottom line for me - and that's bigotry.  I'd never vote for a bigot even if they'd promised me the world in every other way, and I'd certainly not shut up if NZ elected a bigot.  That would get me out on the street waving banners whatever, as to do nothing is wrong.

 

I'm not sure about your impression of US Trump voter demographic.  Not arguing - I'm just not sure as we have different experiences.  I've spent some time in most states - travelled all over the place on the move, talking to people. I've seen more of the US than most Americans.  I came to the overwhelming conclusion that if I was other than white, I'd seriously avoid most of it - and I'd wager that the places I'd avoid most would correlate close to 100% with the red states on the US election result map.  People are sometimes guardedly racist (that conversation starts along the lines of "I'm not racist - but...) or quite openly racist in the South and Midwest.  It is not like here where you do come across it - but relatively rarely.  I've been in social situations with conservative whites, where I have bitten my lip when they've launched into it. To me, it seemed like I'd stumbled into a Klan meeting. On the other hand, I know wonderful people there. 

 

I have no doubt at all that racism motivated many Trump voters.  That is_not_good in any way.


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  Reply # 1670298 13-Nov-2016 21:11
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Sidestep:

 


It was, and is, just a huuge protest vote. At first from both sides. If Bernie'd made it to the end maybe he'd have carried it instead..(and things would be so much better - from our point of view)

 

What I found quite interesting, and why I was so confident that Clinton would win the Electoral vote by a comfortable margin, was in Obama's second campaign, where I'd felt he had been a pretty good President, and whilst initially when he was elected and comfortably won, Americans seemed happy with his choices, so many 

 

people I know and respect from the US, intelligent and politically knowledgeable (relatively) people were saying they wouldn't vote for him again as he wasn't getting stuff done. They knew the Republicans were behaving really REALLY badly, and that Romney was real trouble for the country too, they wanted ANY momentum, even backward. 

 

It was a close popular vote, but comfortable to Obama electorally, because the College was more conservative etc.

 

I expected the same from the College this time around. 

 

 


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