J Adern, How will she affect the election, and is she a good leader?

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#1856102 31-Aug-2017 19:00

networkn:

God help us! Labour apparently ahead in a recent poll. 4 Weeks ago they were struggling for 20% but with a new Leader (I'm gonna call it and say almost all the rebound is soley this) and little to no concrete policy except "we will look into doing some stuff and it's going to be paid for by taxing the hell out of everything", they are ahead.

I thought we were better than Americans but I am beginning to wonder. Maybe this is what we deserve!

It's the same Labour party as the last 9 years who couldn't work a policy to save their lives but apparently, everyone believes they can now with 4 weeks under their belt, run the country.

Labour could end up in charge without committing to very much at all, they could pretty much do whatever they want and everyone is cheering them on!

Nightmare.

LOL! Its not that bad. Central left is Labour and Greens, the Greens have succumbed to Roundup thats all.

Yes, clearly the new leader card, but they are releasing a lot of nice policies, as are National. I dont recall they are all being paid by tax increases, quite the opposite. And remember they only saw the books the other day, while the Nats knew the books and could plan ahead, including the downturn in surpluses that have come to light.

No, it seems a fresher younger party. Lets talk stats. If we see the country being run by MP's its a big stretch to imply that luckily all the good ones are in National, wow, that is real lucky! :-)

Ok, just checked Stuff, wow they are up past National. The other issue is 3 terms is the time for a change to kick in.

Both parties policies are heavy to the people, as they both seem to think up new policies and promises every day, but both are targeting good things. Id even wager that whoever gets in, they will borrow some of the others ideas in subtle ways.

Off to watch the debate, back later!

tdgeek

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#1856109 31-Aug-2017 19:12

Break. Mikes being a good boy so far. Bill only wants to talk about the $1000, Jac is ok, yes not same level of detail so far.

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#1856116 31-Aug-2017 19:27

Apparently the housing crisis is over. The speculators have been beaten. Thats good news

Still less detail from Jac, but Bill is playing the politics card, being vague. It will be great type of thing. Jac is holding her own, Bill is speaking well.

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#1856131 31-Aug-2017 20:22

tdgeek:

Apparently the housing crisis is over. The speculators have been beaten. Thats good news

Still less detail from Jac, but Bill is playing the politics card, being vague. It will be great type of thing. Jac is holding her own, Bill is speaking well.

But for it to be 'over', the crisis had to exist in the first place. National have always denied there has been a crisis, just a challenge. A DTI of 10 is far too high. At least Labour have said that they expect houses in Auckland should be 400-450k. National do say that dropping houses prices is going to destroy peoples wealth. But did that wealth really exist? People take a risk when they buy a house that it may go up or down in value, that is a house owners risk. Even if it drops by 40% after raising 100% , that is still a good end result. A house at the end of the day is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. I think it partly comes down to how many voters are home owners, and how many aren't. National have said they are the party of house owners, and that does show.

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#1856132 31-Aug-2017 20:24

tdgeek:

networkn:

God help us! Labour apparently ahead in a recent poll. 4 Weeks ago they were struggling for 20% but with a new Leader (I'm gonna call it and say almost all the rebound is soley this) and little to no concrete policy except "we will look into doing some stuff and it's going to be paid for by taxing the hell out of everything", they are ahead.

I thought we were better than Americans but I am beginning to wonder. Maybe this is what we deserve!

It's the same Labour party as the last 9 years who couldn't work a policy to save their lives but apparently, everyone believes they can now with 4 weeks under their belt, run the country.

Labour could end up in charge without committing to very much at all, they could pretty much do whatever they want and everyone is cheering them on!

Nightmare.

LOL! Its not that bad. Central left is Labour and Greens, the Greens have succumbed to Roundup thats all.

Yes, clearly the new leader card, but they are releasing a lot of nice policies, as are National. I dont recall they are all being paid by tax increases, quite the opposite. And remember they only saw the books the other day, while the Nats knew the books and could plan ahead, including the downturn in surpluses that have come to light.

No, it seems a fresher younger party. Lets talk stats. If we see the country being run by MP's its a big stretch to imply that luckily all the good ones are in National, wow, that is real lucky! :-)

Ok, just checked Stuff, wow they are up past National. The other issue is 3 terms is the time for a change to kick in.

Both parties policies are heavy to the people, as they both seem to think up new policies and promises every day, but both are targeting good things. Id even wager that whoever gets in, they will borrow some of the others ideas in subtle ways.

Off to watch the debate, back later!

The problem is that with a new government, they will need a tax working group, and there are so many unknown with that. Maybe we will see GST rise again? I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, but it isn't good for businesses who are trying to sell things, who are competing with overseas countries.

tdgeek

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#1856136 31-Aug-2017 20:33

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Apparently the housing crisis is over. The speculators have been beaten. Thats good news

Still less detail from Jac, but Bill is playing the politics card, being vague. It will be great type of thing. Jac is holding her own, Bill is speaking well.

But for it to be 'over', the crisis had to exist in the first place. National have always denied there has been a crisis, just a challenge. A DTI of 10 is far too high. At least Labour have said that they expect houses in Auckland should be 400-450k. National do say that dropping houses prices is going to destroy peoples wealth. But did that wealth really exist? People take a risk when they buy a house that it may go up or down in value, that is a house owners risk. Even if it drops by 40% after raising 100% , that is still a good end result. A house at the end of the day is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. I think it partly comes down to how many voters are home owners, and how many aren't. National have said they are the party of house owners, and that does show.

Bill said the crisis is over as prices have levelled off, speculators beaten. Thats rubbish. Sakes have dropped a lot, prices are either flat or down a tickle. So the house prices are still the same as at the "end" of the housing crisis. The DTi is the same, houses haven't dropped, so the damage has been done and its staying that way. As inflation is very low, the DTi will be with us forever. Plus, house sales do drop off during the lead to an election. How much this year, hard to know.

You are right, party of the homeowners. But to say its over? Ugh, thats bad.

Oh, and the 450k houses wont affect other houses. It will affect those in nearby price points, plus they are aiming for townhouses, apartments, etc.

tdgeek

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#1856139 31-Aug-2017 20:37

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

networkn:

God help us! Labour apparently ahead in a recent poll. 4 Weeks ago they were struggling for 20% but with a new Leader (I'm gonna call it and say almost all the rebound is soley this) and little to no concrete policy except "we will look into doing some stuff and it's going to be paid for by taxing the hell out of everything", they are ahead.

I thought we were better than Americans but I am beginning to wonder. Maybe this is what we deserve!

It's the same Labour party as the last 9 years who couldn't work a policy to save their lives but apparently, everyone believes they can now with 4 weeks under their belt, run the country.

Labour could end up in charge without committing to very much at all, they could pretty much do whatever they want and everyone is cheering them on!

Nightmare.

LOL! Its not that bad. Central left is Labour and Greens, the Greens have succumbed to Roundup thats all.

Yes, clearly the new leader card, but they are releasing a lot of nice policies, as are National. I dont recall they are all being paid by tax increases, quite the opposite. And remember they only saw the books the other day, while the Nats knew the books and could plan ahead, including the downturn in surpluses that have come to light.

No, it seems a fresher younger party. Lets talk stats. If we see the country being run by MP's its a big stretch to imply that luckily all the good ones are in National, wow, that is real lucky! :-)

Ok, just checked Stuff, wow they are up past National. The other issue is 3 terms is the time for a change to kick in.

Both parties policies are heavy to the people, as they both seem to think up new policies and promises every day, but both are targeting good things. Id even wager that whoever gets in, they will borrow some of the others ideas in subtle ways.

Off to watch the debate, back later!

The problem is that with a new government, they will need a tax working group, and there are so many unknown with that. Maybe we will see GST rise again? I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, but it isn't good for businesses who are trying to sell things, who are competing with overseas countries.

She mentioned the tax group. Not even picked yet. They didn't have the books till the other day, so thats understandable. No way will GST rise, but it was funny when Bill kept bringing up the $1000, then when Jac said they put GST up, he was motionless. I recall Nats will spend 7B and Labour 20B, but thats over 5 years, it was I think 14B over the term? And almost half that is paid by the removed tax cuts.

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#1856140 31-Aug-2017 20:40

Jacinda didnt really look like a PM. Easy to say she is new to this, but thats no excuse.

She needs a makeover with wardrobe advice badly.

Handle9

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#1856142 31-Aug-2017 20:44

The debate didn't move the needle. If you were leaning one way or the other I don't think it changed things.

Both stayed on message pretty well but I think Labour will be happier than National given their momentum.

tdgeek

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#1856146 31-Aug-2017 20:50

Re the debate

Jac was vague early on, but Bill was very vague at the end, I hate it when MP's do that. We will grow productivity etc. Anyone can say that. he did get caught a few times, out came the vague reply. I felt he started stronger and fell away, she the opposite.

One thing I noticed, was that while she obviously cannot draw on her or Labours recent governing, and Bill can, he often seemed to focus more on her "vague policies" than what his Govt had achieved. I find that weak. The waterways he focussed on the testing we are doing, even when questioned over and over by Hosking that they had 9 years to do something. Evasion like that I dont like.

But overall, both were ok, the usual political answers at times (Use words but dont reveal anything) I felt she was more keen and passionate, him, more a case of nothing much here but its steady. She didn't come across as lost as some here have suggested may be the case. She knows her stuff

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#1856152 31-Aug-2017 20:59

Pumpedd:

Jacinda didnt really look like a PM. Easy to say she is new to this, but thats no excuse.

She needs a makeover with wardrobe advice badly.

I noticed that, but she wasnt in red, thats a good thing

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#1856155 31-Aug-2017 21:04

Handle9: The debate didn't move the needle. If you were leaning one way or the other I don't think it changed things.

Both stayed on message pretty well but I think Labour will be happier than National given their momentum.

Yes. I was surprised to see that. This latest momentum upswing I dint feel is due to her. Both parties have come up with some nice policies. But with Ahern the flavour of the month still, thats probably grabbed more support, even though National policy announcements were also very good.

Plus Labour = Labour + Greens. Greens are gone, so that makes Labour artificially high. If the Greens were going great, the case would be that Labour hasn't improved much with a new, fresh leader.

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#1856183 31-Aug-2017 22:52

tdgeek:

Handle9: The debate didn't move the needle. If you were leaning one way or the other I don't think it changed things.

Both stayed on message pretty well but I think Labour will be happier than National given their momentum.

Yes. I was surprised to see that. This latest momentum upswing I dint feel is due to her. Both parties have come up with some nice policies. But with Ahern the flavour of the month still, thats probably grabbed more support, even though National policy announcements were also very good.

Plus Labour = Labour + Greens. Greens are gone, so that makes Labour artificially high. If the Greens were going great, the case would be that Labour hasn't improved much with a new, fresh leader.

Greens will still likely just get in at around 5%, which I think would help Labour in forming a government. NZ first may also have seen a bit of a loss of support. But National will be worried, as they have seen some of their base slip away. At least from that poll, but they did say that their own polling showed them with stronger support. Plus there is usually a pretty big margin of error.

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#1856238 1-Sep-2017 07:19

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Handle9: The debate didn't move the needle. If you were leaning one way or the other I don't think it changed things.

Both stayed on message pretty well but I think Labour will be happier than National given their momentum.

Yes. I was surprised to see that. This latest momentum upswing I dint feel is due to her. Both parties have come up with some nice policies. But with Ahern the flavour of the month still, thats probably grabbed more support, even though National policy announcements were also very good.

Plus Labour = Labour + Greens. Greens are gone, so that makes Labour artificially high. If the Greens were going great, the case would be that Labour hasn't improved much with a new, fresh leader.

Greens will still likely just get in at around 5%, which I think would help Labour in forming a government. NZ first may also have seen a bit of a loss of support. But National will be worried, as they have seen some of their base slip away. At least from that poll, but they did say that their own polling showed them with stronger support. Plus there is usually a pretty big margin of error.

Yep. The Greens issues make Labours poll look good, the key is the Greens + Labour overall result compared to past poll pre Green issues, result. Which Im not sure of. Not a lot has changed as both still need NZF.

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#1856284 1-Sep-2017 07:33

What interests me is NZ First is still tracking down. If the trend continues they will move close to the 5%

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