J Adern, How will she affect the election, and is she a good leader?

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Forums › Politics › J Adern, How will she affect the election, and is she a good leader?

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#1860876 8-Sep-2017 13:23

jonathan18:

What?! You've got all the pieces of the puzzle, just not put them all in the right place!

Yes, the three years relates to National - it's saying National (and their policies) are driven by the three-yearly election cycle.

The 10 years, is referencing Labour takes a longer-term planning outlook; as others have pointed out, 10 years is a common timeframe for planning - eg the requirement for NZ councils to have a long-term plan that covers a period no less than 10 years.

Whether or not that's an accurate characterisation is a more relevant point than simply trying to score points on the "maths" (over which you've essentially scored an own goal...).

Have to agree. I think that slogan is particularly effective and powerful. The chosen numbers are deliberate. National focuses on keeping things ticking over for one electoral cycle, never looking beyond the next election. Labour thinks to the future, regardless of who's in government at that point - e.g. climate change.

Whether or not you agree that that's an accurate summary of each party in reality is another thing, but the advertising is sound.

I also feel that yesterday was the tipping point in the campaign and will put my money down now that Labour will win. National's drop in support isn't just continuing, it's accelerating. All the talk now is about what kind of government Labour can form. Short of a bombshell (a real one, not a Steven Joyce special) I don't think there's anything that an incumbent third term government can do to arrest that momentum.

Pretty astonishing stuff. The day Jacinda became leader I predicted she'd lead them to 33% in a losing effort, which I thought would be an incredible accomplishment.

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frednz

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#1860888 8-Sep-2017 13:37

tdgeek:

frednz:

Rikkitic:

Barring unforeseen circumstances (always possible with this election), Jacinda Ardern is going to be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand. Those who find this a disturbing thought might want to start preparing for it.

John Key prepared for it months ago! A more disturbing thought is who is going to be Deputy Prime Minister. Start preparing for Winston?

She said no on the second TV debate, as did Bill (quickly) Nor Finance. Grant Robertson will be deputy.

Well, anyone would be an improvement on Kelvin Davis!

I'm not sure we should rule out Winston as being deputy, if a coalition with NZ First is essential to govern, then I would bet on Winston being deputy PM.

Wiggum

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#1860893 8-Sep-2017 13:41

allio:

I also feel that yesterday was the tipping point in the campaign and will put my money down now that Labour will win. National's drop in support isn't just continuing, it's accelerating.

While we are not the US, their predictions gave Trump only a 30% chance of victory. Could we also be grossly over-sampling our labour supporters? Saying that, I have no idea how our poll predictions work, so therefore don't put much faith in them anyway.

Geektastic

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#1860911 8-Sep-2017 13:45

MikeB4:

I don't get all the stuff about Jacinda Ardern having no expertise, the argument is a smoke screen. If one was to follow the logic a PM or would be PM would have to be expert in Finance, Health, transport, Defence, Justice, Foreign Affairs, Law, Welfare, Agriculture, all disciplines of science, Manufacturing, statistics and so on. On that basis no one ever would qualify to be PM. We have advisors a government departments for this reason.

So why not just elect the advisors?

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#1860930 8-Sep-2017 14:12

Geektastic:

MikeB4:

I don't get all the stuff about Jacinda Ardern having no expertise, the argument is a smoke screen. If one was to follow the logic a PM or would be PM would have to be expert in Finance, Health, transport, Defence, Justice, Foreign Affairs, Law, Welfare, Agriculture, all disciplines of science, Manufacturing, statistics and so on. On that basis no one ever would qualify to be PM. We have advisors a government departments for this reason.

So why not just elect the advisors?

We can if they stand for election

allio

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#1860939 8-Sep-2017 14:25

Wiggum:

While we are not the US, their predictions gave Trump only a 30% chance of victory. Could we also be grossly over-sampling our labour supporters? Saying that, I have no idea how our poll predictions work, so therefore don't put much faith in them anyway.

That's always possible. Polls aren't perfect, but they are pretty good in NZ.

Colmar Brunton has historically overcounted National by about 1%, undercounted Labour by about 0.1%, overcounted the Greens by 1.5%, and undercounted NZF by about 2%. If that history is anything to go by, the Greens are by far the biggest question mark at this point.

Rikkitic

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#1862261 11-Sep-2017 12:01

Whatever you think of Jacinda Ardern or her policies, she has achieved something truly remarkable, and that deserves to be acknowledged. I am not aware of anything comparable to what she has managed to do anywhere in the world. She has taken over an unpopular political party in the throes of defeat that has not come anywhere close to victory over three elections and several leaders, and in just a few short weeks has completely turned its fortunes around, taking it from its worst poll results ever to likely victory. This is an astonishing accomplishment, almost without parallel.

Those who disapprove of her will look for reasons to disparage this result: It was a cynical ploy from the beginning to upset the election, or it was due to her smile, or anything was better than Andrew Little, or she just got lucky. But these arguments are just sour grapes. Jacinda Ardern did not get to where she is by being lucky or having a pretty face. She is an astute, hard-working, capable, quick-witted politician with an excellent command of the facts who holds her own well against older and more experienced rivals. I think she is an impressive human being to have done what she has. Her debate performances demonstrate that this is not someone who does not know what she is doing, or does not have more than a shallow understanding of the issues. This is why she is exciting to voters. It is the basis of what has been termed the ‘Jacinda effect’.

I wish her well. I think she has the potential to really shake things up and change the way things are done in this country. I hope she succeeds. But win or lose she has already scored a major achievement and she certainly deserves credit for the remarkable way she has turned her party’s fortunes around. Only the most churlish would deny her that.

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gulfa

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#1862293 11-Sep-2017 12:15

Agree entirely It was interesting to hear her say the jobs not done yet and we must get out and vote

Early polls should make it easier I will be voting in the next day or to

networkn

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#1862295 11-Sep-2017 12:17

Rikkitic:

Whatever you think of Jacinda Ardern or her policies, she has achieved something truly remarkable, and that deserves to be acknowledged. I am not aware of anything comparable to what she has managed to do anywhere in the world. She has taken over an unpopular political party in the throes of defeat that has not come anywhere close to victory over three elections and several leaders, and in just a few short weeks has completely turned its fortunes around, taking it from its worst poll results ever to likely victory. This is an astonishing accomplishment, almost without parallel.

I'd suggest this is less about her and more about people in general and how easily they will "switch" allegiances. People seem to be less concerned with Substance and want someone who can talk well, and have a happy outlook on life.

Trump shouldn't have been elected, but he managed to "say" the right things to sway people, and people believed that things would be different when he was in power and that has worked out really well (Tui Billboard anyone). He is very inexperienced and doesn't have a good grasp on fundamentals, and that hasn't worked out well for the US. I am shocked to see that Kiwi's "seem" to think it's going to work better here.

It might, but I'll be surprised.

You can give her one thing, she talks a good talk.

SJB

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#1862345 11-Sep-2017 13:58

For better or worse elections are all about personality these days and Ardern has one and English doesn't and that's the reason she will probably win.

Policies are, for the most part, irrelevant to the majority of the electorate so as long as you don't propose anything too radical they don't matter a jot.

Personally I'm not fussed who wins and probably won't bother to vote. I've lived under numerous governments in 2 countries now and I don't remember any one of them ever making much of a difference to my own well being or that of my fellow countrymen.

networkn

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#1862346 11-Sep-2017 14:03

SJB:

For better or worse elections are all about personality these days and Ardern has one and English doesn't and that's the reason she will probably win.

Policies are, for the most part, irrelevant to the majority of the electorate so as long as you don't propose anything too radical they don't matter a jot.

Personally I'm not fussed who wins and probably won't bother to vote. I've lived under numerous governments in 2 countries now and I don't remember any one of them ever making much of a difference to my own well being or that of my fellow countrymen.

I disagree with the personality thing and BE. I think right now, being an older white male is a bad thing in any area. There is a backlash against them regardless of credentials, qualifications etc.

I don't think there is much question about who is most qualified and experienced to run the country, but if you want a sideshow, well JA will happily provide some amusement for some.

gulfa

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#1862401 11-Sep-2017 15:44

Lets stop bashing Jacinda Ardern for her looks and personality, She has proven in all the debates that she holds her own with Bill English. Look Read and listen to the ommentators after the debates They all agree that she has held her own or in many cases had the better of BE. While many are concerned about a Tax Policy and what it may hold. National also have produced policies that they need to work out and clarify Roading for example they want new roads developed in certain areas but like all new developments there will need to be much discussion and negotiations Education and the second language development they haven't a clue how this is going to work.

Like any new policy discussion and negotiations must take place and adjustments made. Take the Waterview tunnel which was originally proposed by Labour disregarded by National in favour of a above ground then changing their minds after much discussion and reverting to the original plan with the addition of extra lanes. Any sensible Government would follow these procedures so lets accept what Labours wants to do with their tax proposal if elected

networkn

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#1862412 11-Sep-2017 16:05

gulfa:

Lets stop bashing Jacinda Ardern for her looks and personality, She has proven in all the debates that she holds her own with Bill English. Look Read and listen to the ommentators after the debates They all agree that she has held her own or in many cases had the better of BE. While many are concerned about a Tax Policy and what it may hold. National also have produced policies that they need to work out and clarify Roading for example they want new roads developed in certain areas but like all new developments there will need to be much discussion and negotiations Education and the second language development they haven't a clue how this is going to work.

Like any new policy discussion and negotiations must take place and adjustments made. Take the Waterview tunnel which was originally proposed by Labour disregarded by National in favour of a above ground then changing their minds after much discussion and reverting to the original plan with the addition of extra lanes. Any sensible Government would follow these procedures so lets accept what Labours wants to do with their tax proposal if elected

You can't have it both ways. You can't be happy that JA is bringing Labour out of the doldrums largely because of her personality, and then complain when people comment on it. You also can't criticise BE for his apparent lack of personality and not expect JA's personality to be called into account too.

Labours policies aren't anything special to be honest, and the big ones don't have beggar all detail so you can't really critisize them. Commentators have universally said that JA needs more details in her plans.

I can't follow your writing to be honest, but if I am understanding this correctly, it doesn't bother you that they want to decide on stuff after they are elected, and not even wait for a second term to make it an election issue?

Andrew Little for all his faults, had this right.

Essentially under JA's leadership, The Government will form a working party to decide how tax will work in NZ which is not an insignificant thing, and when she is satisfied they have done what they need to, will enact it as law. They could come up with almost anything! If you don't like it, lump it, and hpoe that the following election the opposition gets in under a promise to repeal it, which is basically a huge waste of time and energy.

Under AL's plan, they would put forward the changes as part of term 2 electioneering and this gave NZ'rs a real chance to decide if this is what they want.

Second language (Which I think is a dumb idea) is not in the same ballpark as tax reform. Roads are designed and proposed by people much smarter and more experienced than your average MP. MP's basically decide which ones to fund. Government can say "we will allocate x amount more this term, or over the next 10 years" or whatever, and that basically decides what roads get built.

Rikkitic

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#1862422 11-Sep-2017 16:20

networkn:

You (and others) seem convinced that whatever comes out of the working group will almost by definition have to be a disaster. I don't see this. I don't have a problem with trusting them to come up with something workable. I just don't see an issue here.

Learning a second language is not a matter of survival but regardless of where the idea comes from there is absolutely nothing dumb about it. I am multilingual, as are many Kiwi immigrants. In Europe this is the norm. Kids should definitely grow up speaking multiple languages. Monolingualism is holding this country back.

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tdgeek

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#1862437 11-Sep-2017 16:40

networkn:

Roads are designed and proposed by people much smarter and more experienced than your average MP.

I think that is the point re the tax reform. The vast majority of knowledge goes to the MP's from expert groups. MP's can then make an intelligent call.

Tax is significant, however, it excludes GST and Income Tax, which are extremely significant to all of us. The other taxes are generally smaller and targeted.

Whether its lack of competence, hiding the devious plan, or wanting it done right and taking a huge risk of that losing them the election is something we may have to end up trusting and find out.

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