J Adern, How will she affect the election, and is she a good leader?

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#1862448 11-Sep-2017 17:04

Networkn Quote
“Essentially under JA's leadership, The Government will form a working party to decide how tax will work in NZ which is not an insignificant thing, and when she is satisfied they have done what they need to, will enact it as law. They could come up with almost anything! If you don't like it, lump it, and hope that the following election the opposition gets in under a promise to repeal it, which is basically a huge waste of time and energy”

You and I have may have our opinions about JA leadership but what I have seen and heard are signs of a good leader who has vision for addressing the huge gap between the haves and have nots.

Political parties are not stupid there are many very intelligent people working in both parties They will make decisions which they think will benefit most people. Unfortunately or fortunately some of us think that the present Government hasn’t made these sort of decisions and has disregarded many. They are now running around offering bribes of all kinds to try and win our votes, when if they really cared they would have done this earlier in their 9 year term.
Treasury of course will give their points of view and I would suggest that this will be the main guide for any changes that may occur

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Technofreak

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#1862454 11-Sep-2017 17:16

The fact Jacinda can turn around the Labour Party's fortunes so quickly just by assuming the leadership is more a commentary on how fickle the public are than her attributes as a leader. That's very scary, frightening in fact.

It shows a lot of people obviously don't think about policies and how these policies affect them nor the country as a whole. Every voter should be thinking about two things when they vote. What party has the best policies and how well do they think their local MP represents the electorate.

The Labour Party policies haven't changed to any extent since Jacinda took over as leader yet somehow they are now a much better proposition to govern the country. Go figure.

One area that scares me somewhat is the Labour Party don't seem to have any tax policy, or at least one they want to reveal. It seems that they will make it up after they institute a review. Funny thing is so often these reviews are often set up in such a way that the outcome is predetermined. I'm not keen on voting for a party that doesn't know what or how they intend to tax us.

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gulfa

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#1862459 11-Sep-2017 17:24

Quote "

The fact Jacinda can turn around the Labour Party's fortunes just by assuming the leadership is more a commentary on how fickle the public are than her attributes as a leader. That's very scary, frightening in fact.

What attributes do you think she is lacking as a leader?

Please respond as the only one I consider is" lack of experience" but she has shown that she is a very quick learner and has vision

tdgeek

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#1862464 11-Sep-2017 17:36

gulfa:

Networkn Quote
“Essentially under JA's leadership, The Government will form a working party to decide how tax will work in NZ which is not an insignificant thing, and when she is satisfied they have done what they need to, will enact it as law. They could come up with almost anything! If you don't like it, lump it, and hope that the following election the opposition gets in under a promise to repeal it, which is basically a huge waste of time and energy”

You and I have may have our opinions about JA leadership but what I have seen and heard are signs of a good leader who has vision for addressing the huge gap between the haves and have nots.

Political parties are not stupid there are many very intelligent people working in both parties They will make decisions which they think will benefit most people. Unfortunately or fortunately some of us think that the present Government hasn’t made these sort of decisions and has disregarded many. They are now running around offering bribes of all kinds to try and win our votes, when if they really cared they would have done this earlier in their 9 year term.
Treasury of course will give their points of view and I would suggest that this will be the main guide for any changes that may occur

Id take is a small step further, in that she isn't focusing on the haves and have nots, but as much or more, on resolving some longer standing issues. There is no way that she should be polling as well, given her lack of experience, unclear tax reforms, unless the masses feel she is really into doing good.

Dingbatt

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#1862476 11-Sep-2017 18:06

gulfa:
Quote "

The fact Jacinda can turn around the Labour Party's fortunes just by assuming the leadership is more a commentary on how fickle the public are than her attributes as a leader. That's very scary, frightening in fact.

What attributes do you think she is lacking as a leader?

Please respond as the only one I consider is" lack of experience" but she has shown that she is a very quick learner and has vision

She was the president of the international union of socialist youth before entering Parliament and she was also the deputy leader of the Labour Party under Andrew Little so it is difficult to say she has had no leadership experience.
I do agree with the fickleness of public opinion though. G.Morgan's comment of lipstick on a pig is apt. Same policies, different wrapping.

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#1862478 11-Sep-2017 18:22

A rapid rise in popularity can also lead to an equally rapid decline if expectations, which are sometimes unrealistic, are not seen to be met or there are some mistakes along the way.

The current French president Macron went from creating a new political party to president in a landslide victory in 18 months but his popularity is already waning apparently.

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#1862479 11-Sep-2017 18:29

SJB:

A rapid rise in popularity can also lead to an equally rapid decline if expectations, which are sometimes unrealistic, are not seen to be met or there are some mistakes along the way.

The current French president Macron went from creating a new political party to president in a landslide victory in 18 months but his popularity is already waning apparently.

Wow, that makes me feel so much better.

So if she doesn't deliver, we are stuck with a Labour Govt (the bad old labour that despite what people think, is the same Labour of the last 9+ years) for potentially x more years. Fantastic.

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#1862481 11-Sep-2017 18:36

networkn:

Wow, that makes me feel so much better.

So if she doesn't deliver, we are stuck with a Labour Govt (the bad old labour that despite what people think, is the same Labour of the last 9+ years) for potentially x more years. Fantastic.

So you admit that you just don't like her and everything else you have said to justify that is just waffle?

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#1862482 11-Sep-2017 18:38

Rikkitic:

networkn:

Wow, that makes me feel so much better.

So if she doesn't deliver, we are stuck with a Labour Govt (the bad old labour that despite what people think, is the same Labour of the last 9+ years) for potentially x more years. Fantastic.

So you admit that you just don't like her and everything else you have said to justify that is just waffle?

You seem to be having a comprehension failure.

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#1862489 11-Sep-2017 19:09

I just think the average voter is just becoming more shallow and event driven. Probably as a result of the instant nature of news and social interaction these days.

Technofreak

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#1862552 11-Sep-2017 21:17

gulfa:

Quote "

The fact Jacinda can turn around the Labour Party's fortunes just by assuming the leadership is more a commentary on how fickle the public are than her attributes as a leader. That's very scary, frightening in fact.

What attributes do you think she is lacking as a leader?

Please respond as the only one I consider is" lack of experience" but she has shown that she is a very quick learner and has vision

I wasn't commenting on her attributes (good or bad) as a leader just on the scary fact a change in leader without any policy changes has had such a dramatic effect on the polls in such a short time.

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networkn

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#1862708 12-Sep-2017 10:48

gulfa:

Networkn Quote
“Essentially under JA's leadership, The Government will form a working party to decide how tax will work in NZ which is not an insignificant thing, and when she is satisfied they have done what they need to, will enact it as law. They could come up with almost anything! If you don't like it, lump it, and hope that the following election the opposition gets in under a promise to repeal it, which is basically a huge waste of time and energy”

You and I have may have our opinions about JA leadership but what I have seen and heard are signs of a good leader who has vision for addressing the huge gap between the haves and have nots.

Political parties are not stupid there are many very intelligent people working in both parties They will make decisions which they think will benefit most people. Unfortunately or fortunately some of us think that the present Government hasn’t made these sort of decisions and has disregarded many. They are now running around offering bribes of all kinds to try and win our votes, when if they really cared they would have done this earlier in their 9 year term.
Treasury of course will give their points of view and I would suggest that this will be the main guide for any changes that may occur

It's sad you think that there was money and people available to do everything you wanted, and handle 3 earthquakes and the GFC and everything else as well. Labour is only in a position to do what they want to do now because of the financial stewardship of National. Obviously, on top of that they intend to raise funds by taxing everything they can get away with.

I don't see JA making policies that are going to solve the housing crisis, or fix the difference between the have and have nots.

I don't see National providing any bribes that Labour aren't doing as well. It's a lolly scramble. Traditionally it's Labour who have stolen elections by making crazy promises in my opinion.

Labour wants to reduce immigration and increase house ownership. I am wondering who is going to be building these houses? I wonder who will build the infrastructure required to support those houses? A house (owned) for everyone is just nonsense.

allio

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#1862782 12-Sep-2017 13:17

networkn:

Labours policies aren't anything special to be honest, and the big ones don't have beggar all detail so you can't really critisize them. Commentators have universally said that JA needs more details in her plans.

I've posted this before: this blog has a wealth of good analysis of the 2008 election. This and this are particularly interesting reading. You will notice parallel after parallel to this election, except the positions are reversed. Seriously - read those links, no matter which side of the political spectrum you're on. It's a great dose of perspective on how both parties are behaving right now.

Under Bill English, policy formation had been severely softened. In fact, this approach was summed up well when a secret recording of English was broadcast during the campaign in which he said ‘nothing beats winning in politics, despite all our highly principled statements ... Do what we need to: win’.

For better or for worse, I think the "detail free campaign" is just how you win an election from opposition these days. To pre-announce too many complex policies prior to the election pretty much guarantees that you're going to be publically caught out short on detail in a "show me the money" moment, no matter how fleshed out your policies are. You'll note that National hasn't announced anything complicated or gamechanging either - just more of the same. Incumbent's advantage. Labour are trying to equalize that advantage and are taking some flak for it.

For all Labour's opaqueness this time round, they are actually being far more open with detail than National was in 2008. National actually categorically ruled out a rise in GST and then did it anyway. Do you think they'd have won the election if they'd campaigned on raising it? Maybe. Maybe not. If it had let to National shedding just 0.93% of their vote to NZF - very plausible, given retirees were disproportionately disadvantaged by National's tax reform - we might have had a very different government.

I'm not saying it's right - I'm saying maybe it's just the way it is.

networkn:

A house (owned) for everyone is just nonsense.

I find that view profoundly sad. What better thing is there for a society to aspire to?

gulfa

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#1862810 12-Sep-2017 13:32

allio:

networkn:

Labours policies aren't anything special to be honest, and the big ones don't have beggar all detail so you can't really critisize them. Commentators have universally said that JA needs more details in her plans.

I've posted this before: this blog has a wealth of good analysis of the 2008 election. This and this are particularly interesting reading. You will notice parallel after parallel to this election, except the positions are reversed. Seriously - read those links, no matter which side of the political spectrum you're on. It's a great dose of perspective on how both parties are behaving right now.

For better or for worse, I think the "detail free campaign" is just how you win an election from opposition these days. To pre-announce too many complex policies prior to the election pretty much guarantees that you're going to be publically caught out short on detail in a "show me the money" moment. You'll note that National hasn't announced anything complicated or gamechanging either - just more of the same. Incumbent's advantage. Labour are trying to equalize that advantage and are taking some flak for it.

For all Labour's opaqueness this time round, they are actually being far more open with detail than National was in 2008. National actually categorically ruled out a rise in GST and then did it anyway. Do you think they'd have won the election if they'd campaigned on raising it? Maybe. Maybe not. If it had let to National shedding just 0.93% of their vote to NZF - very plausible, given retirees were disproportionately disadvantaged by National's tax reform - we might have had a very different government.

I'm not saying it's right - I'm saying maybe it's just the way it is.

networkn:

A house (owned) for everyone is just nonsense.

I find that view profoundly sad. What better thing is there for a society to aspire to?

This and This articles

A couple of interesting articles putting some perspective into Labours approach

networkn

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#1862816 12-Sep-2017 13:51

allio:

I find that view profoundly sad. What better thing is there for a society to aspire to?

You have the same financial understanding of economics as Labour, clearly :)

Quality of life is more important than house ownership. Houses cost to buy, but they cost a lot to maintain as well. Labour wants house prices to fall significantly so more people can afford them, but those who already paid high prices, would lose hundreds of thousands of dollars to make this happen.

Are you ok with that? If you paid $800K for your house and all of a sudden it was worth 25-30% less, how would you feel? How will your bank feel?

There are thousands of happy renters in New Zealand. I know more than a few owners who wished they hadn't of bought and kept renting.

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