J Adern, How will she affect the election, and is she a good leader?

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Networkn
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#1851694 24-Aug-2017 09:18

tdgeek:

EQ have had levies for decades. The Ch and KA EQ's are not funded from today. Roading. Its unattended. Congestion. Now, being election year, many plans. Housing, there is a crisis. How? WE support immigration, which I agree with, so why is there a housing crisis years later? IMO its been left to the market, as has been stated by National. It does allow a strong set of books. If I left expenditure on my houses and vehicles, my set of books will look good too. While this is my opinion, it gets stated often.

Now, if its decided to reduce debt, and not leave it to rot, I assume now, its time to get transport, housing up to date? Those that drive and want housing might see it another way.

End of there day, many here are extremely biased. To the Nats, or to Labour, or to Bill or to Jacinda. But a lot gets stated as facts, where in actual fact they are opinions only.

Should Labour sneak in, and IMHO thats less likely, then everything they do, no matter how great, will be criticised. Should Nats get in, which IMO is likely, there will be others to blame when the books fade. But the books will fade as we are having to spend now, what we should have been taking care of year on year. I guess blame Peters.

But its a politics forum. Its either all BLUES or its all REDS, with a few swing voters like me.

I never mentioned financial resources specifically, but the Government has had to contribute some money, I am not sure how much exactly, 550M was a number that was in my head from a recent article. 550M gets a lot of roads and houses, but I wasn't actually talking about money, I was talking about people. Both Government officials, technical resources, planners, infrastructure consultants, engineers, QS etc. Those people, they are all busy in CHCH/Kaikoura/Wellington. We have reasonably low unemployment and if you take from those numbers those who won't work or literally can't work, then the pool of potential people to complete additional works is quite low. This means our options are 1) wait 2) bring in outside workers.

If we bring in outside workers, then housing gets under more pressure, as does infrastructure and roads and house prices also rise most likely.

It's actually not easy running a country and everything is a balance.

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Rikkitic

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#1851814 24-Aug-2017 11:43

I agree. I think most disagreement is not on principle, but where the balance lies. Obviously a society cannot function without productivity and income, but this should not always be the only consideration. If cows destroy the environment (not saying they do, just an example) then a government that only wants to increase cow numbers for the sake of added income with no regard for the environmental cost, does not have its priorities right.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

networkn

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#1851819 24-Aug-2017 11:51

Rikkitic:

I agree. I think most disagreement is not on principle, but where the balance lies. Obviously a society cannot function without productivity and income, but this should not always be the only consideration. If cows destroy the environment (not saying they do, just an example) then a government that only wants to increase cow numbers for the sake of added income with no regard for the environmental cost, does not have its priorities right.

I think it's fair to say that National is a financially focused group, they will want surpluses, will focus on business growth and financial stability, and Labour will focus more on social issues. To some degree you know what you get when you vote a specific way.

This National Government is the most socialist of any National Govt I can recall in my relatively short politically aware life (say the last 20 years). I suspect now the books are "balanced" over the next 3 years you will see more social policies, which I agree do need some attention, though not as much as some.

6FIEND

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#1852006 24-Aug-2017 16:00

At the moment, I have two major issues with Adern's Labour Party

1) Their tax policy doesn't exist. They are asking us to vote for them on the promise of some un-named people getting together at some unspecified time in the future and concocting some to-be-determined tax recommendation that will come into effect sometime. This is a fundamental gap. All government initiatives (Health, Education, Infrastructure, Welfare, Etc.) depend on tax revenue. Not having anything specific defined/modelled in terms of revenue undermines the feasibility of all other policies.

2) Their costings are baseless. Eg. This report from Stuff.co.nz

Labour has announced a $20 million commitment to invest in a passenger rail service linking Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga. ...Half the $20m would go to ensuring the track changes were made and railcars were ready to go as well as stations along the way. "We need to bring back passenger transport via rail to New Zealand. It used to be one of the fundamental ways that we got around our country and it should be again," Ardern said.

Let's have a quick reality check here... a 2009 study on this estimated that a single train (doing 3 round-trips a day) on existing tracks with existing stations would cost $3m per year to run. The cost to remediate the Whangamarino Wetland pinch-point alone would cost $78m. And that's only considering one of the two routes.

It seems to me that they're pretending that Goff's inability to "Show me the money" isn't going to be a problem for Ms. Adern because she comes across well on telly.

Labour have no excuse for this besides laziness or incompetence. It's not been a secret that there would be an election in 2017 - any diligent opposition that has spent 9 years "not running the country" would be presenting a fully costed "alternate budget" rather than saying, "Vote us in, we'll make something up when we get there."

networkn

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#1852007 24-Aug-2017 16:06

6FIEND:

At the moment, I have two major issues with Adern's Labour Party

1) Their tax policy doesn't exist. They are asking us to vote for them on the promise of some un-named people getting together at some unspecified time in the future and concocting some to-be-determined tax recommendation that will come into effect sometime. This is a fundamental gap. All government initiatives (Health, Education, Infrastructure, Welfare, Etc.) depend on tax revenue. Not having anything specific defined/modelled in terms of revenue undermines the feasibility of all other policies.

2) Their costings are baseless. Eg. This report from Stuff.co.nz

Labour has announced a $20 million commitment to invest in a passenger rail service linking Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga. ...Half the $20m would go to ensuring the track changes were made and railcars were ready to go as well as stations along the way. "We need to bring back passenger transport via rail to New Zealand. It used to be one of the fundamental ways that we got around our country and it should be again," Ardern said.

Let's have a quick reality check here... a 2009 study on this estimated that a single train (doing 3 round-trips a day) on existing tracks with existing stations would cost $3m per year to run. The cost to remediate the Whangamarino Wetland pinch-point alone would cost $78m. And that's only considering one of the two routes.

It seems to me that they're pretending that Goff's inability to "Show me the money" isn't going to be a problem for Ms. Adern because she comes across well on telly.

Labour have no excuse for this besides laziness or incompetence. It's not been a secret that there would be an election in 2017 - any diligent opposition that has spent 9 years "not running the country" would be presenting a fully costed "alternate budget" rather than saying, "Vote us in, we'll make something up when we get there."

Well put! I was discussing this with an accountant today. They should have had these "user groups" before announcing the policies.

I am concerned at how easily NZ'rs are drawn to the new shiny thing. It's almost like there is a new iPhone out!

Rikkitic

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#1852024 24-Aug-2017 16:31

networkn:

the new shiny thing.

I like that. It is the best description of her I have seen so far.

I would not dispute any of the points raised above, but one of the hammers used by National and others to bash Labour (and the Greens, of course) is the fiscal responsibility thing. Yet, as someone else here pointed out awhile ago, Labour was not exactly profligate during its last time in power. I think it was actually pretty sensible and restrained. So why the assumption that it will be any different this time? Do people seriously believe that a Labour government will flush the country down the toilet? Isn't that just a campaign tool to make them look bad?

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6FIEND

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#1852030 24-Aug-2017 17:05

Rikkitic:

... Labour was not exactly profligate during its last time in power. I think it was actually pretty sensible and restrained. So why the assumption that it will be any different this time? Do people seriously believe that a Labour government will flush the country down the toilet? Isn't that just a campaign tool to make them look bad?

Go and read the state of the books in 2008 after Cullen had "spent the lot".

National had barely got its feet under the Cabinet table before the Treasury further revised its forecasts and projected deficits of $6 billion-plus.

So much for “careful management”. Labour is relying on short memories to rewrite history, however. It won’t fool everybody. But in the heat of an election campaign, it is easy to spout fiction and difficult to establish fact."

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/eff2008/eff08.pdf

Oldmanakbar

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#1852031 24-Aug-2017 17:05

I concur with the shiny new thing comment. I still haven't made up my mind and do not think I can still I see more substantial policy come out.

The difference however is that before I did not even listen, the old leadership put me to sleep almost instantly. At least now I can get through a policy discussion. I think that is a lot of the reason for uptick in popularity.

We shall see how she handles herself in the debates.

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#1852046 24-Aug-2017 18:04

I disagree with the new shiny thing analogy. I believe that Jacinda Ardern has considerable substance to offer and did not come down in the last shower. She has quite a long political time line

Fred99

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#1852063 24-Aug-2017 18:56

6FIEND:

Rikkitic:

... Labour was not exactly profligate during its last time in power. I think it was actually pretty sensible and restrained. So why the assumption that it will be any different this time? Do people seriously believe that a Labour government will flush the country down the toilet? Isn't that just a campaign tool to make them look bad?

Go and read the state of the books in 2008 after Cullen had "spent the lot".

National had barely got its feet under the Cabinet table before the Treasury further revised its forecasts and projected deficits of $6 billion-plus.

So much for “careful management”. Labour is relying on short memories to rewrite history, however. It won’t fool everybody. But in the heat of an election campaign, it is easy to spout fiction and difficult to establish fact."

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/eff2008/eff08.pdf

OK - I read part of the summary - which as expected said:

The shock has affected the expectations of businesses, households and governments
worldwide, and led to huge volatility in markets. For example, stock markets in New Zealand
and the United States have fallen as much as 36% and 42% respectively this year, world oil
prices have varied between nearly US$150 and just over US$40 per barrel in the past six
months and spot world dairy prices have fallen 43% since their peak in November 2007.

Oh of course! The GFC happened.

Did you forget about that? It would be a good thing to forget about that if you wanted to pretend that Cullen was bad/English was brilliant, but the facts don't support that.

Especially perhaps that if there was another GFC tomorrow - we're less prepared to be able to deal with it than we were 9 years ago.

Fred99

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#1852073 24-Aug-2017 19:12

Oldmanakbar:

We shall see how she handles herself in the debates.

She has a formidable opponent in Hosking.

The fellow from Dipton - probably not so much.

Always thought Kiwis despised biased refs. Depends what the game is I suppose.

DaveB

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#1852085 24-Aug-2017 19:51

Fred99:

Always thought Kiwis despised biased refs.

Are you not a Kiwi?

sen8or

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#1852089 24-Aug-2017 19:54

Hoskings did the last leaders debate, Key vs Cunliffe wasn't it (?) I don't recall anything significant in that debate that he favoured one over the other (although I think Cunliffe was as weak as DB export when it came to debating, so possibly not much to shut down?)

Who would you rather have, that "politically neutral" John Campbell? (I can see the Tui billboard already with that one)

Fred99

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#1852097 24-Aug-2017 20:06

sen8or:

Hoskings did the last leaders debate, Key vs Cunliffe wasn't it (?) I don't recall anything significant in that debate that he favoured one over the other (although I think Cunliffe was as weak as DB export when it came to debating, so possibly not much to shut down?)

Who would you rather have, that "politically neutral" John Campbell? (I can see the Tui billboard already with that one)

No. But Hosking's brain is MIA. He proved today that he doesn't even understand the basics of the electoral system in NZ.

Fred99

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#1852101 24-Aug-2017 20:15

DaveB:

Fred99:

Always thought Kiwis despised biased refs.

Are you not a Kiwi?

If you want an answer to that, start another thread.
I'm not entirely sure if I know what it means any more.
I have NZ citizenship if that's what you mean.

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