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  #1855876 31-Aug-2017 11:59
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Along with its Long and medium range liquid fueled missiles North Korea has large numbers of  short range solid fueled rockets that are both chemical and nuclear warhead capable. The range of these means that maritime targets and the Inchon/ Seoul regions of South Korea are targets for these. These missiles and their launch vehicles are very hard to find and very hard to detect when fired. It would be very difficult to take out all those targets in a first strike scenario.





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  #1855880 31-Aug-2017 12:05
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SaltyNZ:

 

tdgeek:

 

The US will never pre emptively strike. When Nk does something that is seen as a strike, then the US will respond, then the rest of your paragraph will occur, to SK and Japan. SK cannot be defended anyhow

 

 

 

 

You wot!? Pre-emptive war is the US foreign policy signature move of the 20th Century!

 

 

I know, but this is different IMHO. NK is a 100% lying, decieving, game playing Govt, who is winning this "cold" war by a country mile. Ideal for a peaceful regime change, not a war, But China is the guardian, so thats out. If NK fired first, then the US has a free reign with Chinas acceptance, but China wont allow a takeover

 

So, just wait, till its "ok" to go in, if that scenario was to happen. Some may say its going to one day, and the sad losses of life are just pending. If Rikkitics suggestion came to pass that would solve it. Or we accept and love peaceful NK as the lying decieving Govt that is fully nuclear armed and ready, and the US now has 50 warheads ready to fire when the time comes. At leats in the USSE USA cold war it was a deterrent, its not for KJU, where one day his fatalism may be what erupts it all
 


 
 
 
 


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  #1855994 31-Aug-2017 15:22
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tdgeek:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

tdgeek:

 

The US will never pre emptively strike. When Nk does something that is seen as a strike, then the US will respond, then the rest of your paragraph will occur, to SK and Japan. SK cannot be defended anyhow

 

 

 

 

You wot!? Pre-emptive war is the US foreign policy signature move of the 20th Century!

 

 

I know, but this is different IMHO. NK is a 100% lying, decieving, game playing Govt, who is winning this "cold" war by a country mile. Ideal for a peaceful regime change, not a war, But China is the guardian, so thats out. If NK fired first, then the US has a free reign with Chinas acceptance, but China wont allow a takeover

 

So, just wait, till its "ok" to go in, if that scenario was to happen. Some may say its going to one day, and the sad losses of life are just pending. If Rikkitics suggestion came to pass that would solve it. Or we accept and love peaceful NK as the lying decieving Govt that is fully nuclear armed and ready, and the US now has 50 warheads ready to fire when the time comes. At leats in the USSE USA cold war it was a deterrent, its not for KJU, where one day his fatalism may be what erupts it all
 

 

 

They have put their money where their mouth is...they are delivering on their threats and they have been helped by another nation/s to get this far. It is my opinion that they will launch a direct attack on a nation sooner rather than later. This will probably deliberately miss in the first instance. They seem to have chosen the waters surrounding Guam as this is where the US bases its Pacific assets. They must be stopped, and its clear diplomacy will not help. It seems either China or Russia are wanting this to occur.


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  #1855997 31-Aug-2017 15:29
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Are you saying that Russia and China want the Korean Peninsular wiped out?





Mike
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  #1856006 31-Aug-2017 15:39
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China doesn't as its a warzone in their backyard, and while SK and Japan aren't friendly with China, and while they share trade, its a bad look as the attacker only has one friend, China. Supporting that is China won't interfere if NK attacks first, and they have enforced their own trade blocks on NK, coal I think. China wants NK in one piece, not an NK where SK would have more right than China to take control.

 

NK knows it will be pummelled so no more luxury and ego for KJU, but the open issue is the culture. Pride and honour. he will have a fatalistic approach, if its going bad, go down fighting, translates to fire everything.

 

KJU wants no sanctions and keep nuclear weaponry, choose one, so its an impasse. Should the status quo be retained, NK is intact, KJU enjoys his rule, and this goes on until his people revolt


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  #1856007 31-Aug-2017 15:41
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More likely is NK fire the threat missiles, either at Guam or over Japan again, and Japan or the US shoots them down. NK will say the US just started the war, US will say correctly, that NK started the war. Even then, I doubt it will be all guns blazing, not for the first few hours.


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  #1856012 31-Aug-2017 15:56
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It will be almost impossible to control, both leaders are equally as dangerous and it will escalate very quickly. It will be very hard to stop Russia, China and  Japan being drawn into due to overflow incidents.





Mike
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There is no planet B

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #1856014 31-Aug-2017 16:02
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tdgeek:

 

More likely is NK fire the threat missiles, either at Guam or over Japan again, and Japan or the US shoots them down. NK will say the US just started the war, US will say correctly, that NK started the war. Even then, I doubt it will be all guns blazing, not for the first few hours.

 

 

Will actually be interesting to see if this technology works.

 

But yes, if their missile is shot down, NK will call it the beginning of a conflict.


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  #1856015 31-Aug-2017 16:06
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Pumpedd:

 

tdgeek:

 

More likely is NK fire the threat missiles, either at Guam or over Japan again, and Japan or the US shoots them down. NK will say the US just started the war, US will say correctly, that NK started the war. Even then, I doubt it will be all guns blazing, not for the first few hours.

 

 

Will actually be interesting to see if this technology works.

 

But yes, if their missile is shot down, NK will call it the beginning of a conflict.

 

 

Yes, and for years and years, the US and SK are in the seas preparing to attack!


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  #1856017 31-Aug-2017 16:09
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MikeB4:

 

It will be almost impossible to control, both leaders are equally as dangerous and it will escalate very quickly. It will be very hard to stop Russia, China and  Japan being drawn into due to overflow incidents.

 

 

If NK fire missiles at Guam, and the US shot them down, whose at fault? 

 

Are those missiles an act of war?


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  #1856020 31-Aug-2017 16:20
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Pumpedd:

 

tdgeek:

 

More likely is NK fire the threat missiles, either at Guam or over Japan again, and Japan or the US shoots them down. NK will say the US just started the war, US will say correctly, that NK started the war. Even then, I doubt it will be all guns blazing, not for the first few hours.

 

 

Will actually be interesting to see if this technology works.

 

But yes, if their missile is shot down, NK will call it the beginning of a conflict.

 

 

And in time, NK will be able to tell the globe that it has warheads aimed at West supporters of the US, that will make him more God than what he thinks he is in NK, and I assume we will want to hold talks.


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  #1856021 31-Aug-2017 16:21
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One has to remember the NK has a lot of assets including such things as Mig 29s, circa 5,000 tanks, 4,000 rocket launchers, 8,000 artillery 70 submarines. It has circa 1,000,000 regular soldiers but has a reserve of around 5,000,000. Their Navy does not have good surface assets and a lot of the submarines are old but they can cause a lot of issues for US Navy if they want to bring their carriers closer to the peninsular.





Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

There is no planet B

 

 


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  #1856022 31-Aug-2017 16:26
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MikeB4:

 

One has to remember the NK has a lot of assets including such things as Mig 29s, circa 5,000 tanks, 4,000 rocket launchers, 8,000 artillery 70 submarines. It has circa 1,000,000 regular soldiers but has a reserve of around 5,000,000. Their Navy does not have good surface assets and a lot of the submarines are old but they can cause a lot of issues for US Navy if they want to bring their carriers closer to the peninsular.

 

 

I dint doubt that, Mike. My concern is that there has too much US and Trump hate and less realising what the years of failed talks and sanctions have allowed to be created. NK isn't a wild tiger that everyone wants to quite down, its loose now. No matter who is POTUS now, its loose.


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  #1856038 31-Aug-2017 16:41
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Don't get me wrong I believe that Kim Jung-Un is very dangerous and the path taken by North Korea is very dangerous and worrying. I just don't believe that military action is the answer for both sides. All possible diplomatic avenues need to be pursued included taking the US out of the diplomacy and replacing them with someone North Korea is prepared to listen to and maybe compromise  If NK does fire first the US will with good reason retaliate in force and the outcome is going to be horrific with a very high regional death toll.





Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

There is no planet B

 

 


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  #1856057 31-Aug-2017 17:24
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I wouldn't be overly concerned about their MiG-29s or their submarines. Only a couple of the planes have been observed flying lately so it is unlikely that more than a handful are airworthy and even those are going to be flown by pilots who get an hour in the air every week or two if they're lucky. (See here: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/should-the-world-fear-north-koreas-air-force-20315)

A similar situation with the submarines. In theory they have 70 but most are barely floating and none other than a single experimental prototype for SLBM forces can fire anything but torpedoes. Nominally dangerous to surface ships but wouldn't last long in reality and useless against civilian targets.

Their artillery and tanks are more of a worry. Also museum pieces but the artillery in particular is still deadly. I don't know how many of their 5000 tanks actually work but to the extent they can roll them over the DMZ they could still cause problems for civilians until they are destroyed.




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