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628 posts

Ultimate Geek
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Topic # 223013 8-Sep-2017 09:13
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The cynic in me wonders if JA was always intended to challenge for this election and that Labour timed the events of the past few weeks to give her the best possible chance at challenging for a change in Govt.

 

With the crushing defeat of labour in 2014, a new leader was always going to be appointed, however, IIRC, she lost her seat to Nikki Kaye and was probably not yet in the position to challenge or be put forward for the leadership (also because more senior members of Labour were challenging).

 

Andrew Little was always a lame duck leader, no charisma, a union boy through and through, he was never going to unite Labour, if anything he was more divisive than any of them. At worst, he would do as he did, see labour drop in the polls and drop down his own ratings for PM.

 

Roll forward two years, Labours polls doing pretty much what had been predicted, JA rising quietly through the ranks to be promoted to deputy leader behind Andrew Little. All that was needed was then was something to spark life into the election. Disenfranchised voters needed something to rally behind, for a while that was the Greens and NZ First. National had pretty much peaked and the loss of Key meant that Labour had its best possibility in years to fill the "gaping personality hole" left by Key, Little was not that person.

 

Perhaps it was Labour that held the information about Turei, forcing her hand to drop the benefit fraud / election fraud bombshells, that started the buzz around the election. This was very closely followed by Littles last poll with Labour at its lowest point was his tipping point and what the strategists needed to then bring in "the shining light" of JA.

 

JA vs Key would have been an interesting battle, but I don't think she would have won on her "values" speel, Key would have been much more convincing in the debates than English, but JA vs English is a no contest, she proved she was no pushover, even though she was for the most part debating with little factual information.

 

 


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31 posts

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  Reply # 1860707 8-Sep-2017 09:54
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Always remember, when creating your tinfoil hat, to ensure the shiny side points outwards.




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1860709 8-Sep-2017 10:00
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lol, I'm far from a conspiracy theorist, it may very well just have been all Labours ducks lining up in a row, but political strategists very rarely think short term......


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1860718 8-Sep-2017 10:20
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History has shown me that our politicians are self focused and very short sighted. I cannot see how they would execute a series of well thought out steps over several years, while in systematically getting your opposition leaders embarrassed and beaten.

 

The string of events you describe absolutely must be a coincidence / fluke.


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  Reply # 1860798 8-Sep-2017 12:04
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She hasn't come up with anything to get my vote yet...!






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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1860803 8-Sep-2017 12:07
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What I find interesting about this thread is that the op seems to assume labour actually had a plan.




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1860809 8-Sep-2017 12:13
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Maybe Ive been watching too much West Wing, but I doubt party strategists didn't have a plan up their sleeves to try and take advantage of the gap left by JK resigning, theres no way on earth that Little was going to fill the personality gap


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  Reply # 1861140 9-Sep-2017 07:44
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Somebody leaked Turei's benefit lodgers on social media, forcing her to come out with it publicly. Be interesting to know who that was. When I read it I didn't pay any attention to it other than to mention it to a friend of mine because, as I told her, it was just a rumour on social media so who knew if it was true?

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  Reply # 1861165 9-Sep-2017 09:38
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More of a slap in the face of the unions that forced Little on the Labour Party as their leader. The change allowed a kind of reunification of the party that the faithful could then return to. I don't think it was a Party masterplan, I do think it was a plan within a faction of the MPs. The plan was possibly initially to wait for Labour to be decimated under Little at this election, then rebuild under the new generation (Adern and co) for the next.
Plans moved up when Little opened the door to change on a Sunday morning current affairs show.
There will be factions within National that are already plotting what will happen when Bill loses this one (again).




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1861471 9-Sep-2017 18:39
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But who can take over from BE when he loses (again)? Who at National can connect with the public in the same way as Key did?

 

 


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  Reply # 1861500 9-Sep-2017 19:16
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elpenguino:

But who can take over from BE when he loses (again)? Who at National can connect with the public in the same way as Key did?


 



They just need to look for the conservative version of the international union of socialist youth. Adern was the president in 2008 (same year as she entered Parliament I think). Famously used the word "comrade" 23 times in a 13 minute speech.




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1861504 9-Sep-2017 19:25
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And which up and coming national star is that?

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  Reply # 1861507 9-Sep-2017 19:28
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elpenguino: And which up and coming national star is that?


Echo, echo, echo.....
(Just the sound of empty)




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1861788 10-Sep-2017 12:25
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Amy Adams or Nicky Kaye

 

Both have been in the game a while, I think Adams has a fairly clean record and a reputation for fairness without taking any crap. She has had some high profile portfolios and seems to be fairly front and centre at most press briefings with BE. I don't think it will be Paula Bennett, too controversial, even if it has just been trial by media. I don't know much about Kaye, other than she is the pretty face to battle Ardern on the youth front. IIRC she had some health issues (cancer?) which may inhibit her ability somewhat.

 

 


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  Reply # 1861912 10-Sep-2017 18:03
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Imagine how boring the debates would have been with Andrew versus Bill. About as exciting as John Kerry debating Jeb Bush. Luckily for us neither happened. .

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  Reply # 1862159 11-Sep-2017 10:13
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sen8or:

 

The cynic in me wonders if JA was always intended to challenge for this election and that Labour timed the events of the past few weeks to give her the best possible chance at challenging for a change in Govt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats not cynical, its reasonable. National has no opposition to campaign against, they win by default given labours lack of leader/replace leader issues

 

Election, three term Govt has a tough time anywhere, Labour had a shot, so they took it. Oddly its worked out well. Given their "Tell you our tax reform later" issue, Im surprised they are up in the polls. Makes me wonder if National was elected as the best team ever, or the only team. Had there been no $75 bottle of wine made up story, or 11B hole made up story, or now an MP saying that JA encourages suicide story, the polls would be very very tight. Nats should have stuck to their plan, BE has been very good in the debates, but lately its been lies and another new policy that people will like desperation. Thats showing less credibility, and credibility has rightfully been Nats gameplan this election. Whatever the facts really are, that is what people are seeing.


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