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1257 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2001623 24-Apr-2018 13:24
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GV27:

 

bmt:

 

At the end of the day they're still the government, National has no friends and will likely still be in opposition in 2020 because they don't understand how MMP works. 

 

 

Yes the biggest party in parliament and that governed for nine years prior has no idea how MMP works.

 

 

Put more accurately, National couldn't predict which way Winston Peters would swing. If NZ First is likely to stay on in the future as a Labour supporter (or even get back into Parliament) then National will need to find some new friends before the next election.

 

 


Lock him up!
11177 posts

Uber Geek

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  # 2001635 24-Apr-2018 13:45
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A not entirely unrealistic possibility is the NZ First vote declines, the Green vote recovers, and Labour and the Greens get in together. Two + years is a long time in politics. 

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


169 posts

Master Geek
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  # 2001729 24-Apr-2018 15:53
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MikeB4:


All NZ governments have reviews, enquiries, select committees etc etc etc It is part of the normal process of government. Would folks rather they went off half cocked and uninformed ....   




You mean like this?
‪ http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/04/government-did-no-cost-benefit-analysis-on-oil-and-gas-ban.html‬


774 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  # 2001730 24-Apr-2018 15:55
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Reciprocity:
MikeB4:

 

All NZ governments have reviews, enquiries, select committees etc etc etc It is part of the normal process of government. Would folks rather they went off half cocked and uninformed ....   

 



You mean like this?
‪ http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/04/government-did-no-cost-benefit-analysis-on-oil-and-gas-ban.html‬

 

 

 

That just serves to reinforce my "third option" perception. ;-)


gzt

11026 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2001747 24-Apr-2018 16:15
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It isn't a ban as far as I know. This government will not issue exploration permits during it's term. That is all. Within one term that is unlikely to have much effect. Then there is a referendum aka an election at the end of that.

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Uber Geek

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  # 2001804 24-Apr-2018 17:12
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gzt: It isn't a ban as far as I know. This government will not issue exploration permits during it's term. That is all. Within one term that is unlikely to have much effect. Then there is a referendum aka an election at the end of that.


Not a referendum. Election votes are based on multiple issues not just one.





gzt

11026 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2001815 24-Apr-2018 17:41
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Well yes unless you are a single issue voter.

 
 
 
 


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  # 2001869 24-Apr-2018 19:06
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gzt: Well yes unless you are a single issue voter.


I suppose but that is probably a small number, especially for this particular single issue.





bmt

474 posts

Ultimate Geek


  # 2001896 24-Apr-2018 20:21
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frednz:

 

GV27:

 

bmt:

 

At the end of the day they're still the government, National has no friends and will likely still be in opposition in 2020 because they don't understand how MMP works. 

 

 

Yes the biggest party in parliament and that governed for nine years prior has no idea how MMP works.

 

 

Put more accurately, National couldn't predict which way Winston Peters would swing. If NZ First is likely to stay on in the future as a Labour supporter (or even get back into Parliament) then National will need to find some new friends before the next election.

 

 

 

 

Did you guys.. pay any attention to the election at all?

 

Winston Peter's super overpayment details leaked to media, he thinks its National and sues several National folks. National and Bill English telling people to cut out the middle man (i.e NZ First). It was pretty obvious months out from the election that NZ First was going to be kingmaker and yet National were still trying to go it alone.

 

Biggest party in parliament and yet in opposition proves my point precisely.

 

Re NZ First, they've got what they wanted. Bar them failing to win an electorate and/or falling below 5%, there is no way they are going to flip from being in government with Labour to being in government with National the very next term.

 

National maxed out the vote in the mid 40s, there's no way they are going to get >50% by themselves. ACT is dead in the water, the Maori Party are dead and irrelevant, their only hope is for a current MP to split off and start a conservative party - all a matter of who and when really. 


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Ultimate Geek
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  # 2001915 24-Apr-2018 20:59
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bmt:

Did you guys.. pay any attention to the election at all?



Was that the only election result you can remember?

It was pretty obvious months out from the election that NZ First was going to be kingmaker and yet National were still trying to go it alone.


NZF were never going to go with national, the question was whether Labour was too odious for them to support.

Re NZ First, they've got what they wanted. Bar them failing to win an electorate and/or falling below 5%, there is no way they are going to flip from being in government with Labour to being in government with National the very next term.


See my first comment... remember 2008? NZF at 4% - also, in the unlikely event that things go horribly wrong, there is the possibility they may have to reject labour.

National maxed out the vote in the mid 40s, there's no way they are going to get >50% by themselves. ACT is dead in the water, the Maori Party are dead and irrelevant...


Remember 2014? National = 60 seats. Also, as above a party can come back to life e.g. NZF. Are ACT irrelevant? not really, or no more so than the greens. I agree though, the Maori party never were relevant.

But one things for certain that we won't get a repeat of the 2017 election results, so surmising based on that is somewhat useless.

624 posts

Ultimate Geek


  # 2001937 24-Apr-2018 21:33
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gzt: It isn't a ban as far as I know. This government will not issue exploration permits during it's term. That is all. Within one term that is unlikely to have much effect. Then there is a referendum aka an election at the end of that.

 

 

 

Colleagues in the oil & gas sector have indicated that hard decisions on current and future investment are being made right now, based on the government's present position. There are more lucrative prospects in foreign countries, and a commitment there will mean no further commitments in NZ for many years subsequent to a policy reversal.

 

Other industries that rely heavily on gas such as Ballance Agri-nutrients are also re-evaluating their future in NZ. That will be another significant blow for not only Taranaki and Tauranga, but the country as a whole that will be forced to import more fertilizer. 

 

The repercussions during this term are very significant.


gzt

11026 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2001951 24-Apr-2018 21:56
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Balance Agri-Nutirents is an NZ farmer owned cooperative and manufacturer. I find it hard to believe they are planning based on prospecting. Are they concerned that existing reserves will run out? That seems premature.

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Ultimate Geek
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  # 2001955 24-Apr-2018 22:05
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gzt: Balance Agri-Nutirents is an NZ farmer owned cooperative and manufacturer. I find it hard to believe they are planning based on prospecting. Are they concerned that existing reserves will run out? That seems premature.


I'm not sure if you are referring to a particular article, but I do know that they were thinking of building a new plant to replace their kapuni production facility. The figure of $300 million comes to mind. I thought known gas reserves are expected to last another 10 years or so?

624 posts

Ultimate Geek


  # 2002048 25-Apr-2018 08:18
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rjt123:
gzt: Balance Agri-Nutirents is an NZ farmer owned cooperative and manufacturer. I find it hard to believe they are planning based on prospecting. Are they concerned that existing reserves will run out? That seems premature.


I'm not sure if you are referring to a particular article, but I do know that they were thinking of building a new plant to replace their kapuni production facility. The figure of $300 million comes to mind. I thought known gas reserves are expected to last another 10 years or so?

 

Known gas reserves differ at each field. While that doesn't matter quite as much for domestic consumers, given the fields are interconnected and the lower volumes required, for large industrial users who situated themselves on top of or adjacent to a field to obtain maximum volumes, it is very important.

 

Maui has a probable lifespan of between 3-10 years, with much higher costs and lower volumes in the final years. Kapuni, which Ballance utilises, is one of the oldest fields in the country, which has a similar timeframe if significant capital investment in the field is not undertaken by the owner. So significant capital investment by Ballance and their partners (who will most probably take a much more cautious approach now), and the field owners are all required. That's just one field - there are many others serving industries like Methanex which produce large quantities of Methanol that are going through similar processes.

 

 


gzt

11026 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2002267 25-Apr-2018 13:20
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The government seems confident the combination of already continuing exploration in existing fields + permits already issued will see the required demand satisfied until NZ reaches the thinner end of a low carbon transition:

NZHerald: Woods said that based on industry estimates, there was significant potential for new finds from existing gas exploration permits. "What we know is that there's 100,000 square kilometres of New Zealand that is currently under exploration permits.

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