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21745 posts

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  # 1892616 30-Oct-2017 14:21
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elpenguino:

 

But there's only been one single term government under mmp - 1996's national government

 

 

Well, one presumes they were in for one term because they overpromised and underdelivered, so if Labour do it, then the same could (Please God) happen to them. 

 

One thing that is certain, they will not deliver anywhere NEAR the 100K homes they promised, they made such a big deal out of it, so that should be interesting. 

 

 




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  # 1892635 30-Oct-2017 14:42
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I dunno , I was out of the country at the time. recent reports were that national mishandled their coalition partners (nzf) who got the hump and dropped them at the next election.

 

I expect everyone has learnt from that now.

 

It's no problem if they don't build 100k homes, they can just blame the previous government for leaving things in a poor state :-)


 
 
 
 


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  # 1892795 30-Oct-2017 19:10
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I understand the use of the smilie, but seeing as I’m a humourless old grouch:

The 100k homes promise was *because* of the “mess” the previous government left. Ie. The “mess” is a “known quantity” from the outset, therefore not a valid excuse for failing to deliver on the policy.



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  # 1892835 30-Oct-2017 21:48
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no one every knows the truth until they get into government. You can make all the requests for info you like.


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  # 1892982 31-Oct-2017 10:32
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elpenguino:

 

I dunno , I was out of the country at the time. recent reports were that national mishandled their coalition partners (nzf) who got the hump and dropped them at the next election.

 

I expect everyone has learnt from that now.

 

It's no problem if they don't build 100k homes, they can just blame the previous government for leaving things in a poor state :-)

 

 

No, they can't. JA said the entire project is properly costed and logistically possible. Speaking to someone in the building industry yesterday, he thinks it's hilarious, that in his view given our current access to resources it wouldn't be possible.


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  # 1892986 31-Oct-2017 10:35
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elpenguino:

 

no one every knows the truth until they get into government. You can make all the requests for info you like.

 

 

 

 

Then you don't make claims (it was actually a campaign promise) that the project is costed, that the logistics are sorted and that you can deliver it. You use possibly, maybe, umm and uncertain language. There was no doubt in my mind that the Labour Government believed it was possible, 

 

though like with a lot of what they promised, I think they don't really have a clue how any of this stuff works. It will be interesting to see how they make good on their 100,000 kids out of poverty claim as well. Does anyone know where she got the numbers for how many were actually there now?

 

 

 

 




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  # 1893110 31-Oct-2017 12:59
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no one actually believes election promises do they? if you do you are tilting at wind mills.

 

have a look at recent history to see how others play the game.

 

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1111/S00331/nationals-growing-list-of-broken-promises.htm

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  # 1893123 31-Oct-2017 13:43
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elpenguino:

 

no one actually believes election promises do they? if you do you are tilting at wind mills.

 

have a look at recent history to see how others play the game.

 

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1111/S00331/nationals-growing-list-of-broken-promises.htm

 

 

 

 

Oh, so your argument is, because they did it, we can do it too? Interesting.

 

 

 

 




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  # 1893128 31-Oct-2017 13:46
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I wouldn't say we, I'm not in the current government.

 

But yes, this is just one of the tools governments have used to prise another out of office since year dot.


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  # 1893497 1-Nov-2017 09:59
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Steven Joyce shows or pretends to show an amazing lack of imagination on how to set up checks on house buying.    How about people have to show a NZ Passport or birth certificate or paper work showing they are citizen/resident of NZ?   Does not sound too impossible to me.    Just part of the process which would take about 1 minute, and that includes the copying of the passport photo.

 

Anyway, it is an absolute outrage that democratically elected governments cannot change laws due to these terrible trade agreements.


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  # 1893818 1-Nov-2017 20:27
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So with the Maori Party and United Future's death by association with National, that leaves just Act as a potential coalition partner in 3 years. Does anybody really expect both of them to earn >50% of the vote in the 2020 election? Best chance I can see National getting is NZ First going to confidence and supply next term to make it more palatable to flip to National the term after. There's no way they are going to be part of a Labour government in 2017 and a National government in 2020 lol.

 

National are toast right now.




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  # 1893956 1-Nov-2017 23:01
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It is noticeable how little media oxygen national are getting right now. that makes it harder for them to connect to voters - we aren't hearing the most effective opposition that we were promised. As you say, they have also maxed out the national vote at 45% and they have no foreseeable partners on the horizon.

 

I would not bet on them regaining power for at least 2 terms. National will drop bill - the question is when?


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  # 1894230 2-Nov-2017 12:38
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amiga500:

 

Steven Joyce shows or pretends to show an amazing lack of imagination on how to set up checks on house buying.    How about people have to show a NZ Passport or birth certificate or paper work showing they are citizen/resident of NZ?   Does not sound too impossible to me.    Just part of the process which would take about 1 minute, and that includes the copying of the passport photo.

 

Anyway, it is an absolute outrage that democratically elected governments cannot change laws due to these terrible trade agreements.

 

 

that works for individuals, but what about companies, trusts etc... how far do you go?

 

Also, a government can change laws however they like, irrespective of trade agreements. The only hitch is that if the laws infringe on the trade agreement's conditions then the trade agreement is voided. Which is pretty straightforward logic.

 

And I cannot understand why peole can't see the enormous benefits of FTA's. For example, the government wants to plant a billion trees. Cool. but what are we going to do with them? I expect the plan is to export them (probably to China). Now, if the Chinese government wanted to boost their own forestry industry they just whack a tarrif on NZ timber and suddenly chinese grown timber is much more cost effective for the factories so sales of NZ timber go down the drain... and we're left with millions of tree's of little value, and either the government or land-owners are left out of pocket after investing millions into their forestry blocks. So someone came up with a brilliant idea, create an agreement with China that they won't charge tarrifs or subidise local industries unfairly, and NZ will do the same. Hey presto, it allows for trade and our primary sector, (farming, forestry, kiwifruit etc) booms.

 

that's the principle of an free market, and it works. Yes, there's some flaws, but it is far more effecient than an interventionist approach. 

 

So my opnion is free trade agreements are NOT terrible - make the TPP happen ASAP David and Jacinda!


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  # 1894231 2-Nov-2017 12:40
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bmt:

 

So with the Maori Party and United Future's death by association with National, that leaves just Act as a potential coalition partner in 3 years. Does anybody really expect both of them to earn >50% of the vote in the 2020 election? Best chance I can see National getting is NZ First going to confidence and supply next term to make it more palatable to flip to National the term after. There's no way they are going to be part of a Labour government in 2017 and a National government in 2020 lol.

 

National are toast right now.

 

 

You make the assumption that NZ First will continue to exist after Winston goes (presumably at the end of this term). However, in reality, they'll fade into oblivion. They've involved themselves in this coalition too deeply, and after three years if it's a hopeless failure (i.e. little real success on their 'aspirations') then the blame is going to fall as heavily on NZ first as much as Labour and without Winston to talk their way out of it they'll disappear. The Greens on the other hand, have been left outside in the cold somewhat, but in the end they'll escape largely unscathed, probably pick up a fair chunk of labour's vote. Prior to National bucking the trend, it was often said that an incumbent party doesn't increase their vote. If that is the case, which i think largely holds to be true, then Labour's 37% doesn't give them much to lose next election  (if labour hadn't had their leadership crisis national wouldn't have enjoyed such large majorities over the past two elections). Unless we get another viable alternative to the Conservative or TOP parties next election I wouldn't be surprised if it's just Nat's, Labour and greens (and epsom)- and there's going to have to be a pretty fundamental shift to get the labour greens bloc back into power.

 

Also, if there is a lot of wasted vote on the minor parties that don't get over the threshold, say 10 or 12%, then if nats are only polling 45% they could scrape in with full majority in the house, maybe ...? but if a week is a long time in politics then 3 years is way too far to call, especially the next three years!


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  # 1894232 2-Nov-2017 12:43
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elpenguino:

 

It is noticeable how little media oxygen national are getting right now. that makes it harder for them to connect to voters - we aren't hearing the most effective opposition that we were promised. As you say, they have also maxed out the national vote at 45% and they have no foreseeable partners on the horizon.

 

I would not bet on them regaining power for at least 2 terms. National will drop bill - the question is when?

 

 

I think you are just stirring here. Why would you expect opposition to get any attention right now? The Government hasn't really done anything. As others have pointed out, they are still unpacking their boxes. I expect much the same as National gets themselves prepared. 

 

Hopefully National do a better job in opposition than the awful job Labour did, but that takes time to arrange, to decide on what to oppose (as compared to Labour who blindly opposed everything without any logical reasoning).


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