So it begins...

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Networkn
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#1960800 20-Feb-2018 10:50

Pumpedd:

networkn:

I am a little surprised that Joyce joined the race.

I presume if he made PM, he would not hold the finance role, wonder who it then falls to.

I am very surprised as he is doesnt come across as modern. Surprised Hoskings supports him....

As mentioned, some people I know and respect, think very highly of their personal/professional interactions with him. He is considered to be very knowledgeable.

I think Hosking fits in the same category. I agree with Hosking that his bullish attitude similar to that of Collins, probably won't go across well.

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MaxLV

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#1960890 20-Feb-2018 11:58

networkn: Well there is the form over function thing? Also they are cannibalising their support partners. It's natural slightly less support for national during a leadership vacuum.

Also, once upon a time the popular sentiment was that the world was flat!

First out the gate I see...

They (Labour) are also 'cannibalising' National.

Poll: Labour up nine points to 48 percent, while National has slipped three points to 43 percent.

We'll just have to wait and see if this is a 'new government' popularity spike, our if it's a long term (3/6/9 year) trend, wont we.

Noted that this poll really didn't have a chance to reflect Bill English's retirement, or (more importantly) the possible replacements as leader of the opposition. I await with interest to see the effect that will have on National's poll standing...

networkn

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#1960894 20-Feb-2018 12:03

MaxLV:

networkn: Well there is the form over function thing? Also they are cannibalising their support partners. It's natural slightly less support for national during a leadership vacuum.

Also, once upon a time the popular sentiment was that the world was flat!

First out the gate I see...

They (Labour) are also 'cannibalising' National.

Poll: Labour up nine points to 48 percent, while National has slipped three points to 43 percent.

We'll just have to wait and see if this is a 'new government' popularity spike, our if it's a long term (3/6/9 year) trend, wont we.

Noted that this poll really didn't have a chance to reflect Bill English's retirement, or (more importantly) the possible replacements as leader of the opposition. I await with interest to see the effect that will have on National's poll standing...

You can potentially interpret the results many ways, as you say time will tell. I would expect National to go backwards as a result of the new leader, it will take time for people to adjust. Same thing happened in Labours leadership changes.

MaxLV

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#1960908 20-Feb-2018 12:18

gzt: Steven Joyce announces he's a candidate.

Anyone know who were the mps standing behind Adams at her announcement?

And now there's five all claiming they're for 'generational' change...

It's looking more and more like National are imploding, or better yet, going to have an outright split into five separate factions...

At the very least they dont appear to have anyone with broad MP or party faithful support to become the next leader.

What happens to those that lose, especially if JC loses?

Will they become a 'festering sore' for the winning candidate?

How will the new leader get the losers 'onside?'

And what will happen with Paula Bennett who has said she wants to retain her deputy leader position, but not one of the five have said she will...

BTW I'm not up with how National elect their leaders, do they have 'run off' elections?

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#1960919 20-Feb-2018 12:37

Based on nothing except how they come across, I like Mark Mitchell. To me he seems to have a likeability factor, and that is something that clearly helped Jacinda and Labour.

MikeAqua

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#1960934 20-Feb-2018 13:05

Rikkitic:

People often look at this kind of thing in a literal way only. Even if this law has little practical value, I think it has important moral value by declaring a clear line. It says that hitting children is wrong. That is a point worth making.

Cases of extreme and fatal violence were a big chunk of the justification for the law. Those abuses of course were always illegal and that kind of violence is still reported. We still have a shocking rate of violence against children.

And the line still isn't that clear. There are still circumstances where it is legally defensible to smack your child.

Mike

MikeAqua

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#1960987 20-Feb-2018 14:15

MaxLV:

It's looking more and more like National are imploding, or better yet, going to have an outright split into five separate factions...

I think the party will remain unified after the dust settles.

The process is a relatively straight forward one. Secret ballot and if a candidate gets 29 votes they are elected. Otherwise the lowest polling candidate is eliminated and there is another ballot. This repeats until someone gets 29 votes. It's also likely some candidates will withdraw before the ballot date.

What that means is that the caucus gets a candidate a majority voted for. You want majority support caucus for your leader. Caucus can be dysfunctional without it.

By contrast look at the labour system which forced Cunliffe, Little and possibly Shearer (I can't remember) upon the caucus. All three were disasters for the party. Cunliffe had a faction within his caucus openly against him (the so called ABCs). Once it was close enough to the election for the caucus to choose the leader, they unanimously elected Ardern who succeeded in getting them into govt.

Mike

networkn

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#1960989 20-Feb-2018 14:24

MaxLV:

And now there's five all claiming they're for 'generational' change...

It's looking more and more like National are imploding, or better yet, going to have an outright split into five separate factions...

Whilst you are busy sniggering and making backhanded comments you might want to consider happens if there was no-one to keep Labour honest.

It is good for New Zealand to have strong opposition. I strongly doubt that NZ is better off with National imploding.

Rikkitic

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#1961002 20-Feb-2018 14:51

I agree that strong opposition is good and necessary for a healthy democracy. But opposition that hold the government to account and 'keeps it honest', as you put it. Opposition that works with government where appropriate for the common good. Not opposition that only exists to tear the government down, to undermine it at every opportunity, to try to seize power by any means at any cost.

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networkn

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#1961008 20-Feb-2018 14:58

Rikkitic:

I agree that strong opposition is good and necessary for a healthy democracy. But opposition that hold the government to account and 'keeps it honest', as you put it. Opposition that works with government where appropriate for the common good. Not opposition that only exists to tear the government down, to undermine it at every opportunity, to try to seize power by any means at any cost.

I think National has been extremely restrained actually.

Labour of Nationals 1st and second term were opposition for the sake of it. Little as leader headed down more of the same, thankfully he was rolled in quick order.

Geektastic

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#1961029 20-Feb-2018 15:13

networkn:

Rikkitic:

I agree that strong opposition is good and necessary for a healthy democracy. But opposition that hold the government to account and 'keeps it honest', as you put it. Opposition that works with government where appropriate for the common good. Not opposition that only exists to tear the government down, to undermine it at every opportunity, to try to seize power by any means at any cost.

I think National has been extremely restrained actually.

Labour of Nationals 1st and second term were opposition for the sake of it. Little as leader headed down more of the same, thankfully he was rolled in quick order.

Thankfully? You sure about that? We'd have a much better government now if he had remained.

Rikkitic

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#1961032 20-Feb-2018 15:14

I wasn't singling out National, just expressing a hope of positive conduct.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

networkn

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#1961033 20-Feb-2018 15:15

Rikkitic:

I wasn't singling out National, just expressing a hope of positive conduct.

Ok, I wasn't certain.

networkn

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#1961034 20-Feb-2018 15:15

Geektastic:

Thankfully? You sure about that? We'd have a much better government now if he had remained.

Maybe, but imagine him as PM in your worst nightmare?

MaxLV

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#1961075 20-Feb-2018 15:43

MikeAqua:

MaxLV:

It's looking more and more like National are imploding, or better yet, going to have an outright split into five separate factions...

I think the party will remain unified after the dust settles.

The process is a relatively straight forward one. Secret ballot and if a candidate gets 29 votes they are elected. Otherwise the lowest polling candidate is eliminated and there is another ballot. This repeats until someone gets 29 votes. It's also likely some candidates will withdraw before the ballot date.

What that means is that the caucus gets a candidate a majority voted for. You want majority support caucus for your leader. Caucus can be dysfunctional without it.

By contrast look at the labour system which forced Cunliffe, Little and possibly Shearer (I can't remember) upon the caucus. All three were disasters for the party. Cunliffe had a faction within his caucus openly against him (the so called ABCs). Once it was close enough to the election for the caucus to choose the leader, they unanimously elected Ardern who succeeded in getting them into govt.

National have five people putting their hands up saying they the best person to be leader and who believe they 'have the support/numbers' to stand. That means the National Caucus/opposition has five separate 'camps' each supporting who they think should be leader. Only one can be leader, what will the other four 'camps' think/do after their choice loses?

I cant see the one who wins having guaranteed support in the caucus, when there's five different factions.

I agree with you about the disaster Labour made on selecting their previous three leaders. Shearer was just not right, Cunliffe was a straight out disaster with his support of a female MP quota, and most of all his apologising for being a man. (what was he thinking?)

Little was elected mainly in reaction to Cunliffe, and didn't really have the voter support Labour needed. Ardern's election as leader was a bit rushed, but it achieved the aim of getting voter support, the government benches, a real generational change for the party, and hopefully for the coalition government.

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