Russian meddling and spies

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Fred99

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Topic # 231835 15-Mar-2018 11:13

From Russia's ambassador to New Zealand, Valery Tereshchenko:

"It is surprising that the British side has made conclusions so fast and they stated clearly that the trails lead to Russia. People who can think logically can ask why Russia would need this right now."

Yep - and they'd quite probably reach the correct conclusion as well, I mean it's not as if Russia hasn't done this kind of thing before.

"I'm sure that this event is a well-staged provocation aimed at fanning anti-Russian campaign. Just remember the rumours around Russian meddling with the US election and campaigns, that sanctions were imposed but as a result it turned out that Russia did not intervene," he said.

That claim surely comes from some alternate universe, the RNC or whatever.

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Reply # 1977043 15-Mar-2018 11:53

Who knows. I wouldn't put it past the Russian govt to have done this. The neuro-toxin agent so obviously links the murder to them they can use that as a defence. Like Catherine Tramell in Basic Instinct

I also wouldn't put it past the British to make it look like the Russians did it.

On balance the carelessness and resulting collateral damage has me leaning toward Russia.

Mike

Fred99

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Reply # 1977095 15-Mar-2018 12:27

MikeAqua:

Who knows. I wouldn't put it past the Russian govt to have done this. The neuro-toxin agent so obviously links the murder to them they can use that as a defence. Like Catherine Tramell in Basic Instinct

I also wouldn't put it past the British to make it look like the Russians did it.

On balance the carelessness and resulting collateral damage has me leaning toward Russia.

I would absolutely exclude Britain. For a start they've no doubt got a vast choice of other methods, should they choose to use them, to make Russia look bad.

Allowing harm to an ex "asset" for whom you'd negotiated an exchange and granted asylum would be an incredibly dumb move if one was to think of the future for one's own intelligence community. If arguing for that means conspiracy theory about double double agents etc, I'd leave that to Hollywood and stick with the blindingly obvious.

There are plenty of much easier and safer ways to kill someone if that was the primary objective. It's much the same as North Korea's use of nerve gas for assassination.

Pumpedd

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Reply # 1977098 15-Mar-2018 12:29

Britain wouldnt have taken the actions it did without proof. Much more to come I am sure. The world is in a bad way.

Geektastic

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Reply # 1977109 15-Mar-2018 12:47

The problem we have is not that this is new; it isn't. Those who lived next door to the Iron Curtain have been playing the spy game and bumping assets off here and there ever since WW2.

The problem is that it used to be dealt with quietly - you bump our man off and yours is found dead in an alleyway having been the victim of a 'robbery gone wrong' etc.

Now, we have this ridiculous need to air our dirty laundry in public.

Much better if the thing had been made to look like a gas leak and appropriate covert retaliation undertaken.

When only those in the game knew what was going on, the sheep that they were guarding could continue to munch the grass undisturbed.

Fred99

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Reply # 1977156 15-Mar-2018 12:58

Pumpedd:

Britain wouldnt have taken the actions it did without proof. Much more to come I am sure. The world is in a bad way.

Just the world? Trump's talking about creating a "Space Force". "Space is a war-fighting domain, just like the land, air, and sea".

networkn

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Reply # 1977170 15-Mar-2018 13:30

Fred99:

Pumpedd:

Britain wouldnt have taken the actions it did without proof. Much more to come I am sure. The world is in a bad way.

Just the world? Trump's talking about creating a "Space Force". "Space is a war-fighting domain, just like the land, air, and sea".

He will be LONG gone before that ever comes to fruition. He likely finishes his term, but I predict he either doesn't run for a second term because he knows he gets crushed, or he runs and loses.

Having said that, I predicted him running, but losing at the first stage, I predicted him failing to get the nomination, and predicted the college votes would be a landslide in favour of Clinton.

The question isn't, has the world had enough of Trump (clearly yes), but has America, and that has yet to be determined. Bush got 2 terms, that went against every bit of logic. I can't recall the number of times Americans when we travelled in the US, without prompting, apologised for Bush. It's not different now.

The big issue is who in the Republicans have that would be less revolting.

Apologies that went off topic. Crux of my post, Trump could start putting the wheels in motion now, but likely not until a second term, which it's somewhat unlikely he would get.

Fred99

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Reply # 1977182 15-Mar-2018 13:50

Geektastic:

The problem we have is not that this is new; it isn't. Those who lived next door to the Iron Curtain have been playing the spy game and bumping assets off here and there ever since WW2.

The problem is that it used to be dealt with quietly - you bump our man off and yours is found dead in an alleyway having been the victim of a 'robbery gone wrong' etc.

Now, we have this ridiculous need to air our dirty laundry in public.

Much better if the thing had been made to look like a gas leak and appropriate covert retaliation undertaken.

When only those in the game knew what was going on, the sheep that they were guarding could continue to munch the grass undisturbed.

I'm rather of the opinion that Russia (presumably) wanted as much attention as possible in this case.

Not only does it send the message about what will eventually happen to "traitors" and their families, but it also sends another message, but with "plausible deniability".

The production of "Novichok" type nerve gas apparently doesn't require trade or manufacture of chemical intermediates which are banned under international treaty (hence the reason why it was developed).

Administering it however is a problem, despite being a binary nerve agent and potentially safer for the assassins if they do it right, the symptoms probably kick in quite rapidly - especially say compared to using Po210 - where it takes days for the first symptoms to appear, then probably days more before a diagnosis is made, then a mission to find out where and how it was administered - by which time the assassins are long gone.

It's more effective than conventional VX type agents, they've shown that they can make it, and they've just effectively stated "hey - look what we've got - and you can't do anything about it" - though the mission probably involved much more risk of being caught red-handed than by using one of their old much more simple tricks.

Not that the message was intended as a direct threat to the UK, but if they'd assassinated someone elsewhere, it likely wouldn't have received the global coverage it has - if any at all.

networkn

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Reply # 1977184 15-Mar-2018 14:02

I agree. They wanted to send a message. They know England won't do squat.

To be fair they could have sent that message any number of ways that was likely less public, so it's clear they wanted to make a scene.

Fred99

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Reply # 1977190 15-Mar-2018 14:14

networkn:

I agree. They wanted to send a message. They know England won't do squat.

To be fair they could have sent that message any number of ways that was likely less public, so it's clear they wanted to make a scene.

But then there's this:

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Wednesday the United States believes Russia is responsible for a chemical attack in Britain on a former Russia double agent and his daughter, and the U.N. Security Council should take action.

"The United States believes that Russia is responsible for the attack on two people in the United Kingdom using a military-grade nerve agent," Haley told a Security Council meeting.

Of course she could be one of the next ones to get a DCM tweet from the President - she's said something he hasn't dared.

There's also the firing of Tillerson (on somewhat friendly terms with Russia) and nominated replacement with Pompeo (Hawkish on Iran - who are on good terms with Russia).

It doesn't fit with the "Trump is Putin's puppet" argument - even if you believe there's no doubt Putin helped put Trump where he is.

networkn

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Reply # 1977193 15-Mar-2018 14:30

I don't really subscribe to the Trump is Putins puppet. Interference probably occurred, as to what degree it helped, debatable.

Geektastic

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Reply # 1977235 15-Mar-2018 15:56

The UN is nowt but an old wive's gossip fest - it's a complete waste of time and money.

I would not bet that the UK won't do anything. They won't do anything that they announce, possibly.

Fred99

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Reply # 1977243 15-Mar-2018 16:27

Geektastic:

The UN is nowt but an old wive's gossip fest - it's a complete waste of time and money.

I would not bet that the UK won't do anything. They won't do anything that they announce, possibly.

If they do something like that, then apart from perhaps a body or two found in a dumpster somewhere, where's the disincentive for Putin - to stop him doing this again?

I expect the "message" he sent was for his guys and probably to give dissidents something to think about, so some secret retaliatory measure will achieve nothing unless it's something big - but carried out carefully enough so that May can smile when saying "wasn't us". That could of course go horribly wrong.

MikeB4

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Reply # 1977270 15-Mar-2018 16:37

I think someone has meddled with the chips in cellphones used by the world leaders, they have all gone bat crap crazy in the last few years.

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elpenguino

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Reply # 1977284 15-Mar-2018 17:30

Geektastic:

The UN is nowt but an old wive's gossip fest - it's a complete waste of time and money.

I would not bet that the UK won't do anything. They won't do anything that they announce, possibly.

It has already been revealed by boris johnson they won't hit the russians where it hurts - by refusing to deal with russian money in the city.

Leaves the pomms with name calling up their sleeve though

Fred99

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Reply # 1977295 15-Mar-2018 18:30

The UK has expelled 23 "diplomats"

Trump via Sanders has given unqualified support to the UK's decision.

Good - but sanctions are of course what Putin really doesn't want - Russia is already in some financial strife, economic growth is low, debt is increasing - and "saving the economy and "making Russia great" was one of the reasons for his popular support.

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