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SJB

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  # 2317066 13-Sep-2019 10:58
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Fred99: I understand that polls in some EU countries are showing increasing support for turfing the UK out of the EU.
I'm starting to think that perhaps they're right - while Brexit will cause some economic harm to the EU, perhaps it's a better option than having a nation with a succession of minority governments, with a vocal minority of hard right and xenophobes indefinitely influencing policy in the union.
It seems highly unlikely that a general election in the UK will result in a majority government or a stable coalition. FPP will result in opposing minor parties (Brexit and Lib Dems) being under-represented, the strength of the SNP, and NI polls showing a (small) majority supporting unification of Ireland, the EU should deny any possibility of extension or renegotiation, sit back and see what happens.

 

If the EU refused an extension then it just needs Parliament to revoke article 50 and the UK would stay in, although saying that I don't think even Labour would take that step without another referendum in favour.

 

The last poll I heard about had the Tories leading by 10 points which would give them a workable majority.

 

 


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  # 2317077 13-Sep-2019 11:15
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SJB:

 

If the EU refused an extension then it just needs Parliament to revoke article 50 and the UK would stay in, although saying that I don't think even Labour would take that step without another referendum in favour.

 

 

Any political system capable of making such a convoluted mess of such a simple decision is unlikely to do anything as logical and straightforward as this. 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


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  # 2317102 13-Sep-2019 11:53
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SJB:

 

The last poll I heard about had the Tories leading by 10 points which would give them a workable majority.

 

 

That's about the largest margin of numerous polls, all showing a Tory lead over Labour, but from 1 - 10%.

 

The UK doesn't have PR, and no poll is showing a Tory & Brexit party with combined polling over 50%. The outcome is anybody's guess.

 

A breakdown by electorate I saw shows the Lib Dems gaining seats, the SNP will retain seats or gain, but the Brexit party polling 7-17% actually winning no seats at all. Unless of course deals are done, and polling now likely doesn't reflect real voting intention anyway - presumably many Brexit party supporters and Lib Dems will be smart/strategic enough to not waste votes, when polling for their individual electorates is known. 

 

If the popular vote isn't reflected in parliamentary seats,  and that's seen to be because of deals done, because the issues are so divisive, whichever way it goes, about half of the population will be gloating and the other half will be livid.  It may be how the system works and thus a "legitimate result", but having the people at each others throats is hardly good for democracy. 

 

 

 

 


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  # 2317110 13-Sep-2019 12:03
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The bizarre thing is that now an electorate vote for a rebel Tory MP is as good as a Labour vote. It's all well and good to have a 10% lead but if 20% of your party is in open rebellion and you can't deselect that many people at the drop of a hat...


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  # 2317113 13-Sep-2019 12:11
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The Times - DUP opens door to new Brexit deal for Boris Johnson

 

September 13 2019

 


Boris Johnson was handed a lifeline by the Democratic Unionist Party* last night when it agreed to shift its red lines in a move that could help to unlock a Brexit deal.

 

The Times understands that, for the first time, the party has said it would accept Northern Ireland abiding by some European Union rules after Brexit in a deal to replace the Irish backstop. ...

 

In return Brussels would have to drop its insistence that Northern Ireland remain in a customs union with the EU.

 

Instead it would agree to fast-track “alternative arrangements” to ensure that the right level of duty was paid on exports without the need for physical infrastructure at the border.

 

The developments came as:

 

A poll suggested that Northern Irish voters would back reunification over staying in the UK if a vote took place today.  [see below]

 

• Tory rebels called on Labour to refuse Mr Johnson’s demands for an election and back either a deal or a second referendum, which could mean an election as late as next summer.

 

• The prime minister denied lying to the Queen over his plan to suspend parliament.

 

 

* The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is a unionist political party in Northern Ireland favouring British identity. 

 

 

 

The Irish Times - Slight majority for unification in Northern Ireland – poll

 

Wed, Sep 11, 2019

 


More than half of NI voters polled think Brexit strengthens the case for unification.

 

The latest survey in Northern Ireland asked voters for their preference “in the event of a referendum on whether or not Northern Ireland should remain part of the United Kingdom”.

 

A total of 45 per cent told the Lord Ashcroft poll they would vote to stay in the UK and 46 per cent said they would choose to leave and join the Republic.

 

This equates to a lead of 51 per cent to 49 per cent for unification if “don’t knows” and those who say they would not vote are excluded. ...

 





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SJB

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  # 2317125 13-Sep-2019 12:50
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Fred99:

 

SJB:

 

The last poll I heard about had the Tories leading by 10 points which would give them a workable majority.

 

 

That's about the largest margin of numerous polls, all showing a Tory lead over Labour, but from 1 - 10%.

 

The UK doesn't have PR, and no poll is showing a Tory & Brexit party with combined polling over 50%. The outcome is anybody's guess.

 

A breakdown by electorate I saw shows the Lib Dems gaining seats, the SNP will retain seats or gain, but the Brexit party polling 7-17% actually winning no seats at all. Unless of course deals are done, and polling now likely doesn't reflect real voting intention anyway - presumably many Brexit party supporters and Lib Dems will be smart/strategic enough to not waste votes, when polling for their individual electorates is known. 

 

If the popular vote isn't reflected in parliamentary seats,  and that's seen to be because of deals done, because the issues are so divisive, whichever way it goes, about half of the population will be gloating and the other half will be livid.  It may be how the system works and thus a "legitimate result", but having the people at each others throats is hardly good for democracy.

 

 

Polls in recent years have been pretty unreliable anyway.

 

Lib Dems should definitely gain seats, SNP might increase their total by talking some Tory Scottish seats now the popular Scottish Tory leader has left.

 

Can't really see the Brexit party winning anything but a tiny number of seats even under the most optimistic scenario. Voters don't tend to go for single issue parties when it really matters.

 

Difficult to see where Labour expects to gain seats. Unbelievably Tories might be eyeing up some Labour heartland seats where there was a strong brexit vote and they might not like Corbyn's hard left type of Labour which has a whiff of 'urban elite' about it. 

 

Occasionally situations arise that cause some sort of mass hysteria. In the UK Diana's death was one of them and this is another. Personally I don't understand it but millions of people get sucked in and reason and, in this case compromise, go out the window.

 

There is no real solution.




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  # 2317236 13-Sep-2019 15:30
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British MPs Jeer as 'Black Rod' Shuts Down Parliament

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

As crazy as things have gotten in this country, it's nice to remember that Britain's government is in absolute shambles.

"If you're at work do not google 'Black Rod' ... 'There'll be no response from you, young man!'"


 
 
 
 




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  # 2317241 13-Sep-2019 15:48
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John Bercow flies off handle in 2am chaos - Speaker's vicious slapdowns in full

Mirror, By Dan Bloom

"Commons Speaker John Bercow has never exactly been a wilting flower.

Now he's properly off the leash after announcing he'll resign - and protesting the suspension of Parliament.

Here are all his clashes with Tories in last night's drama"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-flies-handle-2am-19926865

As an added bonus, may I introduce the German word Schadenfreude, for those who don't know it.

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  # 2317251 13-Sep-2019 16:11
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Someone's finally noticed that the contingency plan for no-deal Brexit named "Yellowhammer" is an anagram for "Orwell Mayhem".

Whoever the civil servant was who thought of that name - and managed to convince that it was chosen at random - deserves medals, royal honours, and funding for a political comedy TV series.

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  # 2317252 13-Sep-2019 16:13
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Yes, Minister!

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  # 2317257 13-Sep-2019 16:20
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kingdragonfly:

As an added bonus, may I introduce the German word Schadenfreude, for those who don't know it.

 

Use of this word will not be allowed after Oct 31st. Don't worry, there'll be plenty of opportunity to use until then.


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  # 2317408 13-Sep-2019 20:08
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The Times - John Bercow likens Boris Johnson to a bank robber

 

September 13 2019

 


In his first public comments since announcing his departure as Speaker, Mr Bercow appeared to compare Mr Johnson to a bank robber and suggested that Britain needed a US-style written constitution.

 

Mr Bercow told Mr Johnson that parliament would step in if he tried to bypass the law ...

 

He added that the only “legitimate” form of Brexit would be one that “the House of Commons has explicitly endorsed”. ...

 

In his speech at the Bingham Centre in London, the Speaker said that a written constitution would help to protect the sovereignty of parliament against future “malpractice or fiat” from government.

 

He added: “At a minimum, it is worth establishing either a royal commission or a Speaker’s conference of some form to explore the idea further.” ...

 



 





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  # 2317420 13-Sep-2019 20:39
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The Times is not a paper most people subscribe to, or want to.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  # 2317433 13-Sep-2019 21:23
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Sideface:

 

The Times - John Bercow likens Boris Johnson to a bank robber

 

September 13 2019

 


In his first public comments since announcing his departure as Speaker, Mr Bercow appeared to compare Mr Johnson to a bank robber and suggested that Britain needed a US-style written constitution.

 

Mr Bercow told Mr Johnson that parliament would step in if he tried to bypass the law ...

 

He added that the only “legitimate” form of Brexit would be one that “the House of Commons has explicitly endorsed”. ...

 

In his speech at the Bingham Centre in London, the Speaker said that a written constitution would help to protect the sovereignty of parliament against future “malpractice or fiat” from government.

 

He added: “At a minimum, it is worth establishing either a royal commission or a Speaker’s conference of some form to explore the idea further.” ...

 



 

 

 

 

 

Look at the USA, a written constitution has done nothing fro them, Trump is riding rough shod over the whole thing, enabled by the Republican party who see being in power is more important than doing the right thing.

 

All that bluster by the pro gun lobby about how they need guns to stop a rogue government...yet not a shot has been fired, because they are more afraid of having gun control than doing the right thing too.

 

All anyone needs to do is to finally say ENOUGH, no more.


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  # 2317766 14-Sep-2019 13:46
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Rikkitic:

 

The Times is not a paper most people subscribe to, or want to.

 

 

A slightly strange comment - The Times is the most popular of the "non-tabloid" newspapers in the UK by quite a large margin

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/529060/uk-newspaper-market-by-circulation/

 

 


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