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3670 posts

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  #2362319 28-Nov-2019 13:27
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What happened to Elizabeth Warren?

Washington Post, by By Philip Bump

...Something happened to Senator Elizabeth Warren (D Democrat Massachusetts). In early October, she was surging in the polls, rising in RealClearPolitics’ average of polls to match (and even briefly surpass) former vice president Joe Biden. At the time, we noted a recent history of people surging into ties — and then fading away. (Ben Carson in the 2016 Republican contest, for example.) That’s exactly what happened to Warren: a peak and then a fade.

Polling from Quinnipiac University released Tuesday allows us to look a little more closely at how Warren’s fortunes have fared. In that poll, Warren slipped from a clear first at the end of October to a tie for third with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Biden regained his lead, but South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg climbed into second. (Sen. Kamala D. Harris of California, who surged after the first Democratic debate, continues to poll in the single digits.)

We learn a bit more when we look at the shifts by demographic. Here is age, ideology, income and race. Take a look.

Two things stand out pretty clearly in many of those charts: Warren’s drop and Buttigieg’s increase. Among “very liberal” respondents, both Biden and Buttigieg appear to have gained at Warren’s expense. Her support among moderates, once respectable, collapsed entirely. It’s worth noting that the shift against Warren came after significant focus on her approach to Medicare-for-all — which Quinnipiac suggests has relatively low support among Democratic moderates.
...


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  #2362355 28-Nov-2019 15:48
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I think if Buttigieg gets the nomination he's exactly the type of candidate who could win over moderates and swing voters.

 

He's a married white male who identifies as Christian, that has to help in middle America. But he's also young enough and progressive enough to capture the youth vote.

 

I quite liked Cory Booker, but his campaign has been a bit of a non-starter. Possibly a good choice for running-mate though. I think a Buttigieg-Booker pairing would be a smart move.

 

EDIT: I didn't realise that he's gay and is married to a man - maybe better not count on as much of the middle America vote as I first thought. There's still a lot of bigotry out there, and I suspect much of America wouldn't vote for him based solely on his sexuality.


 
 
 
 




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  #2367765 3-Dec-2019 18:40
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Elizabeth Warren's strange inflatable dog. She takes her "first dog" Bailey on the campaign trail. You can't go wrong with a politician and her dog, unless it poops during her speech.

The two pennies represent the 2% tax levy on every dollar of fortunes above $50 million.

Maybe we should consider a similar tax levy here.

https://twitter.com/annaspoerre/status/1190312393013956608/photo/1



3670 posts

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  #2370056 7-Dec-2019 14:45
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Biden Gets Feisty On His ''No Malarkey'' Iowa Bus Tour

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Joe Biden had an ugly exchange with a man at a public Q&A session today in Iowa


366 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2412806 5-Feb-2020 08:48
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So apparently the Iowa Caucuses were a disaster. Early indications are a close three-way contest between Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg. However no official results yet as apparently they were using an app to report results from each caucus to the party HQ and the app had all kinds of issues. Even more worrying is the reported close ties between the Buttigieg campaign and the makers of the app. All candidates, except Biden are claiming a victory of some form. Even if it is just, "we did better than we had predicted" kind of a victory.


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  #2412843 5-Feb-2020 09:36
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Varkk:

 

So apparently the Iowa Caucuses were a disaster. Early indications are a close three-way contest between Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg. However no official results yet as apparently they were using an app to report results from each caucus to the party HQ and the app had all kinds of issues. Even more worrying is the reported close ties between the Buttigieg campaign and the makers of the app. All candidates, except Biden are claiming a victory of some form. Even if it is just, "we did better than we had predicted" kind of a victory.

 

 

The Buttigieg campaign's tie to the app is a shocking conflict of interest - even more so considering his intervening in a poll on the grounds of fairness because he was left off, meaning it wasn't published in the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses. 

 

I know people hate the Bernie Bros but after 2016 and now this, it's hard to to not to think they might have a point about the DNC. 

 

 


Lock him up!
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  #2413116 5-Feb-2020 15:29
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Can anyone explain the 'close ties' between Buttigieg and the Shadow app? I have been trying to find information on this, but all I see is that his campaign commissioned some text messages last year, which is nothing unusual. I found some Twitter noise, but nothing that makes sense or sounds particularly nefarious. What is it that Buttigieg is supposed to have done?

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


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  #2413135 5-Feb-2020 15:49
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Rikkitic:

 

Can anyone explain the 'close ties' between Buttigieg and the Shadow app? I have been trying to find information on this, but all I see is that his campaign commissioned some text messages last year, which is nothing unusual. I found some Twitter noise, but nothing that makes sense or sounds particularly nefarious. What is it that Buttigieg is supposed to have done?

 

 

It's the perception of independence, which the DNC should have been alert to. Having an entity that has done paid work for a candidate be responsible for vote gathering at the caucuses is just inviting allegations of a conflict of interest. It's also being seen in the context of the other stuff that's happened with Buttigeig in the run up I mentioned above - the nixing of the traditional poll in the run-up to the contest at their behest, and so on. You'd think given their gouging of Trump due to his conflicts of interest, the candidates would be more aware of how that might look to outsiders. 


Lock him up!
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  #2413202 5-Feb-2020 17:21
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No-one has mentioned Bloomberg but the Iowa mess makes his decision to stay out of the early contests seem like prescient genius.








I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


1640 posts

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  #2413645 6-Feb-2020 12:48
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A lot of twitter buzz around two counties where the results either don't tally correctly or the supervisors have made results public and they do not align with what the IDP is reporting. 

 

In both cases, this advantages Buttigeig by reducing Sanders' winning margins. 


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Ultimate Geek


  #2415963 11-Feb-2020 10:30
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It has been over a week and still no official results from Iowa. Indications are Sanders slightly ahead in terms of popular vote over the state, but Buttiegieg slightly ahead on delegates due to the way they are awarded y the precincts. It seems the released results for 97% of the precincts but then called for a recount and have not released anything since. Now however sentiment has turned against Buttiegieg and he is really lagging in polls in the next primary state. Also he does not have a national profile like Warren/Sanders etc. Apparently he put his entire campaign into Iowa and New Hampshire in order to gain the early win and take that momentum to compete in the following states.


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  #2416737 12-Feb-2020 14:59
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As much as I don't want Trump to get another term, when the Democrats lose again they'll have no-one to blame but themselves.


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Ultimate Geek


  #2417232 13-Feb-2020 12:08
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New Hampshire update.

 

Sanders with a narrow win over Buttigieg (I think they will be even in the actual delegate count) with Klobuchar a surprise third.

 

Next states could shift things. As I said earlier Buttigieg put all of his initial campaigning in to Iowa and New Hampshire trying to get a win to boost his profile and funding. He may now drop off as we hit states he hasn't targetted yet. Also the next states have a bigger non-white population and Buttigieg is weaker among those groups, New Hampshire was probably his perfect demographic. Biden is more popular among african american voters (probably thanks to his close ties to Obama) and Sanders is popular among non-black, non-white minorities. Yang has pulled out and has pledged to support the nominee in anyway he can.

 

 




3670 posts

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  #2421440 15-Feb-2020 16:10
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Biden Campaign Shook, Democratic Field Narrows After New Hampshire Primary

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

In contrast to the messy Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary produced clear-cut results. And while they weren't good for Joe Biden's campaign, the Granite State vote tally meant the end of the road for Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick


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