Our next national election - policies, promises and people

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Forums › Politics › Our next national election - policies, promises and people

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#2468607 23-Apr-2020 13:18

MikeB4:

I agree I had forgotten about Nikki Kaye she would be a very good choice. I am probably wrong but I kind of recall that she has said that she does not want the leadership role because of health concerns.

The latter may well be true as well. But she's just going to be the victim of the usual schemers and hard right types eventually - National seems uninterested in anybody for the front bench other than your Bridges, Collins and Bennett types. All of whom are utterly repellent to social progressives/political centrists like me.

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Rikkitic

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#2474862 1-May-2020 15:20

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/415583/leaked-poll-shows-big-jump-for-labour

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

tdgeek

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#2474929 1-May-2020 18:19

Rikkitic:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/415583/leaked-poll-shows-big-jump-for-labour

Ouch. I would out a lot of that to Grant Robertson. The achilles heel with Labour is its a workers party. Its Centre Left while National struggles to be Centre Right

GR has shown clear financial leadership

MikeAqua

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#2476195 4-May-2020 11:13

Rikkitic:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/415583/leaked-poll-shows-big-jump-for-labour

I would take the actual numbers with a grain of salt, given it's a 'leaked' party poll. The trend is not surprising.

People favour the incumbent government in times of disaster. We've seen this with 9/11 (NY Mayor and President), ChCh earthquakes (ChCh mayor and National Govt), Mosque shootings (Labour Govt). A pandemic IMO functions politically, as a disaster. People favour the incumbent.

Economic recessions tend to have the opposite effect. Regardless of culpability, regardless of who the alternative is, swing voters boot out the incumbent govt. It looks like we have a deep economic recession coming. Tourism is toast, so is hospitality and many of our export markets are in extreme difficulty.

If I was Ardern I would have the election ASAP to take advantage of that. The pendulum will eventually swing from disaster-clinginess to economic meltdown angriness. The business community is starting to turn on her.

Mike

tdgeek

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#2476201 4-May-2020 11:25

Yep,. Its a no win situation. Bagged for not going to L4 sooner (when the issue was all about the virus) and bagged for not going to L2 after 4 weeks (as we want to ignore the virus now). Its great the virus issue is resolved after less than 5 weeks so we can forget about it. Then when there is a second wave, they will be blamed.

MikeAqua

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#2476298 4-May-2020 13:58

tdgeek:

Yep,. Its a no win situation. Bagged for not going to L4 sooner (when the issue was all about the virus) and bagged for not going to L2 after 4 weeks (as we want to ignore the virus now). Its great the virus issue is resolved after less than 5 weeks so we can forget about it. Then when there is a second wave, they will be blamed.

People forget quickly, once that common enemy disappears. The classic example is Churchill, post WW2.

Mike

GV27

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#2476403 4-May-2020 15:15

Even with the huge post-lockdown sense of purpose, a competent leader could have taken it to Ardern over the previous two years of achieving almost nothing from their 2017 campaign. Covid or not, I don't think Bridges would have been up to that.

gzt

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#2476675 4-May-2020 23:42

GV27:
Even with the huge post-lockdown sense of purpose, a competent leader could have taken it to Ardern over the previous two years of achieving almost nothing from their 2017 campaign. Covid or not, I don't think Bridges would have been up to that.

Bridges did an excellent job holding up National Party poll ratings until Covid gave the government an advantage, which is understandable. Bridges will campaign in this election for the first ever as party leader. He appears very competent as an opposition leader, more than competent enough to win an election imo.

Fred99

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#2476708 5-May-2020 08:26

gzt:
GV27:

Even with the huge post-lockdown sense of purpose, a competent leader could have taken it to Ardern over the previous two years of achieving almost nothing from their 2017 campaign. Covid or not, I don't think Bridges would have been up to that.

Bridges did an excellent job holding up National Party poll ratings until Covid gave the government an advantage, which is understandable. Bridges will campaign in this election for the first ever as party leader. He appears very competent as an opposition leader, more than competent enough to win an election imo.

His highest poll result as preferred PM is 10%. I think you're dreaming - most National Party voters don't want him as PM.

Post C-19 anything goes. There's lots of talk about "change" and promises being made "for the better" (whatever and for whom that means). I'm more pessimistic, fear and greed seem to be what drives the economy, recessions only exacerbate wealth inequality - which seems to be the driver for cynical authoritarian populism, the money borrowed to keep the economy from complete collapse (maybe) is going to have to be paid back - and those that have the most to lose are going to fight hardest to hold onto what they've got.
It must be getting near time for Bridges to start talking about his plans for "economic recovery". He's clearly very upset about how the government has reacted to the pandemic - but all I've seen from him is cheap shots based on notions that the government "overreacted".
I guess GST raised significantly, selling off assets, and "austerity" for the masses would be a par for the course conservative path to recovery.

GV27

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#2476734 5-May-2020 09:29

gzt:
Bridges did an excellent job holding up National Party poll ratings until Covid gave the government an advantage, which is understandable. Bridges will campaign in this election for the first ever as party leader. He appears very competent as an opposition leader, more than competent enough to win an election imo.

I don't doubt Bridges is smart, but so was Cunliffe. There's a huge number of parallels between the two. As smart as Cunliffe was, Key still managed to make him look like an idiot at the debates. Ardern is probably equally as capable as Key in that regard and I just don't think Bridges can go toe-to-toe in that sort of environment with someone like Ardern, even if she is quite patronising at times.

gzt

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#2476849 5-May-2020 12:00

Fred99:
gzt: Bridges did an excellent job holding up National Party poll ratings until Covid gave the government an advantage, which is understandable. Bridges will campaign in this election for the first ever as party leader. He appears very competent as an opposition leader, more than competent enough to win an election imo.
His highest poll result as preferred PM is 10%. I think you're dreaming - most National Party voters don't want him as PM.

The recent classic example is Helen Clark's preferred PM rating being even lower as party leader prior to a general election, and going on to become one of NZ's most successful Prime Ministers. It's not unusual and the prime minister is not a president.

GV27

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#2476994 5-May-2020 13:48

gzt:
The recent classic example is Helen Clark's preferred PM rating being even lower as party leader prior to a general election, and going on to become one of NZ's most successful Prime Ministers. It's not unusual and the prime minister is not a president.

How recent is that, really? Since then we've had two mega-popular leaders and even Bill English come in hot, much hotter than he did in 2002. I don't think the game works like that anymore.

Fred99

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#2477030 5-May-2020 14:38

GV27:

gzt:
The recent classic example is Helen Clark's preferred PM rating being even lower as party leader prior to a general election, and going on to become one of NZ's most successful Prime Ministers. It's not unusual and the prime minister is not a president.

How recent is that, really? Since then we've had two mega-popular leaders and even Bill English come in hot, much hotter than he did in 2002. I don't think the game works like that anymore.

It's really not correct in context of "prior to" a GE. Clark's "preferred PM rating" was abysmal when she was leader of the opposition, reaching a low of about 2% a few years before the 1999 election. By election time she was neck and neck with Shipley:

gzt

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#2477229 5-May-2020 19:25

Nice! Want to provide a 12 month plot from the same data and a link to the data source?

gzt

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#2477236 5-May-2020 19:40

GV27:
gzt: The recent classic example is Helen Clark's preferred PM rating being even lower as party leader prior to a general election, and going on to become one of NZ's most successful Prime Ministers. It's not unusual and the prime minister is not a president.
How recent is that, really? Since then we've had two mega-popular leaders and even Bill English come in hot, much hotter than he did in 2002. I don't think the game works like that anymore.

Only a few changes of prime ministers ago, relatively recent.

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