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5725 posts

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  #2481320 11-May-2020 15:24
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Fred99:

 

Critics of the government can't keep making unprovable claims that "we moved too slow/too fast, too hard/too soft".  Well they probably will - for decades - but it's still stuck with the fact that none of it can be proven.

 

 

This would be able to be explored via modelling.  Plug in different decision dates and see how outcomes change.





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  #2481321 11-May-2020 15:26
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MikeAqua:

 

This would be able to be explored via modelling.  Plug in different decision dates and see how outcomes change.

 

 

 

 

Nobody who is seriously arguing over whether the government has done the right thing or not will be convinced by modelling. Fake news!





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  #2481326 11-May-2020 15:32
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SaltyNZ:

 

Nobody who is seriously arguing over whether the government has done the right thing or not will be convinced by modelling. Fake news!

 

 

Fair point.  Politicians (of all stripes) don't want accurate data.  They want data that supports their position.





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  #2481404 11-May-2020 17:32
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MikeAqua:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

Nobody who is seriously arguing over whether the government has done the right thing or not will be convinced by modelling. Fake news!

 

 

Fair point.  Politicians (of all stripes) don't want accurate data.  They want data that supports their position.

 

 

I doubt that any epidemiologists would be prepared to offer anything useful from modelling given the huge variability in human social behaviour and compliance with restrictions with no empirical data to check it against.  It's a bit hard when the last similar (incl. scale) global pandemic was 100 years ago.

 

Very careful monitoring of the impact of our easing of lockdown will give empirical data. If we moved to L2 too fast, I expect the same whiners who said we locked down too hard will be saying we "wasted" the effect by shifting down levels too fast. 

 

You've appeared to have made a claim or implied that the government is data-dredging C-19 epidemic evidence.  I think that's dangerous BS of the highest order.  Prove it.

 

 

 

 


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  #2481419 11-May-2020 17:52
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Fred99:

 

You've appeared to have made a claim or implied that the government is data-dredging C-19 epidemic evidence.  I think that's dangerous BS of the highest order.  Prove it.

 

 

 

 

I wasn't saying anything of the sort. Merely that the people yelling most loudly about conspiracies and their freedoms are the least likely to be swayed by hard evidence, let alone computer models.

 

I mean, you only have to look at the US, or the UK to know we're in a far better place. But there are still people complaining about how wrong the government got it.





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  #2481429 11-May-2020 18:00
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MikeAqua:

 

Fred99:

 

I don't want to make this personal - but whose attitude?
Seems to me that some bias or "attitude" is needed to make a fuss about something completely normal in politics (or business for that matter). 

 

 

The message comes from DPMC.  Therefore, we are talking about the attitude of that department, which is whatever attitude the PM and senior ministers tell them to have.

 

I personally think this points to the kind of toxic arrogance syndrome we saw creep into Shipley's govt and then Clark's.  Key's to a lesser extent on the particular issue of housing.  Simply: A govt believes it is popular enough not to be accountable.  We all know how that eventually ended for those govts.

 

It's always a good thing to criticise the govt.  That continues to apply in the current situation.

 

 

It's well off topic but the Key government dramatically reduced media access to ministers. Where it used to be commonplace for ministers, and the PM, to go on 7pm current affairs shows that almost totally stopped. It lead to where the 7pm shows are now, basically lifestyle shows with the odd bit of news.

 

Politicians have become increasingly sophisticated in their use of the media, and social media, with Trump being a prime example. He bypasses the media to directly communicate whatever he chooses to the public. Interestingly Ardern has been much quieter around the use of live streaming on Facebook in recent times. 


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  #2481437 11-May-2020 18:08
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SaltyNZ:

 

freitasm:

 

[This government managed to obtain a positive result despite these negatives you listed - some that could be attributed to the current coalition government or from a previous one - it doesn't matter now.

 

 

Bridges, early on, tried to ping the government over not having a specific COVID-19 pandemic plan (never minding the obvious point that COVID-19 was completely new on the face of the planet). The Prime Minister replied that the flu pandemic plan was sufficiently in-depth yet flexible enough to form the basis of the new COVID-specific plan ... and that it had been commissioned and published by the previous National government.

 

 

It's pretty clear that the pandemic response plan was woefully inadequate - this is evidenced by the government having to make it up as they went. 

 

It is possible for something that the government inherited to be inadequate and the government being responsible for not having changed it.

 

The point of this thread, IMO, isn't what the government did. It's how they did it. Did they follow the law, and if they didn't why? If the legislation in place isn't fit for purpose it needs to be changed.

 

The end justifies the means always ends in tears. If the person saying that had orange hair large parts of this community would be lighting it's self on fire.

 

There needs to be a comprehensive enquiry to review the pandemic response, including the legal framework.


 
 
 
 


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  #2481442 11-May-2020 18:16
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SaltyNZ:

 

I wasn't saying anything of the sort. Merely that the people yelling most loudly about conspiracies and their freedoms are the least likely to be swayed by hard evidence, let alone computer models.

 

I mean, you only have to look at the US, or the UK to know we're in a far better place. But there are still people complaining about how wrong the government got it.

 

 

You need to check quoting in the post - nothing I said was directed at you - but at the reply you'd received.  I agree with you 😀


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  #2481637 12-May-2020 07:42
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This is getting quite interesting. It appears that the epidemic response committee will issue summons for the production of legal advice about the legal basis of the powers exercised by the Government. It opens some very tricky constitutional doors and frankly quite disturbing possibilities. If the AG and Commisioner of Police were to ignore a summons from the house it puts their authority under significant pressure.

The government has chosen to waive privilege when it has suited them in the past.

https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/parliamentary-privilege-and-the-summonsing/
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2005/S00087/unlawful-lockdown-and-government-accountability.htm

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  #2481642 12-May-2020 08:14
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Fred99:

 

You need to check quoting in the post - nothing I said was directed at you - but at the reply you'd received.  I agree with you 😀

 

 

 

 

Ooops, sorry. :-)





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  #2481643 12-May-2020 08:16
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Handle9: This is getting quite interesting. It appears that the epidemic response committee will issue summons for the production of legal advice about the legal basis of the powers exercised by the Government. It opens some very tricky constitutional doors and frankly quite disturbing possibilities. If the AG and Commisioner of Police were to ignore a summons from the house it puts their authority under significant pressure.

The government has chosen to waive privilege when it has suited them in the past.

https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/parliamentary-privilege-and-the-summonsing/
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2005/S00087/unlawful-lockdown-and-government-accountability.htm

 

 

 

It's interesting you think this is interesting, given that the ERC was setup and deliberately stacked with opposition members by the government and given an almost unlimited power of summons for precisely this reason.





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  #2481654 12-May-2020 08:42
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Fred99:

 

MikeAqua:

 

Fair point.  Politicians (of all stripes) don't want accurate data.  They want data that supports their position.

 

 

You've appeared to have made a claim or implied that the government is data-dredging C-19 epidemic evidence.  I think that's dangerous BS of the highest order.  Prove it.

 

 

My claim was that all politicians (see bold above), tend to seek out and utilise statistics that support their position, regardless of accuracy.  This was not a dig at the current govt, or a specific reference to any data currently available.

 

Rather, it was a comment on politicians generally and a conjecture that given choice of models, politicians will always chose the one that produce outcomes supporting their view/policy/position.  I.e. using the lamp-post for support rather than illumination.

 

 





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  #2481694 12-May-2020 09:33
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Twitter is not cooperating this morning, so in case you can't see that picture, this is the link to it.





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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


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  #2481703 12-May-2020 09:40
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MikeAqua:

 

My claim was that all politicians (see bold above), tend to seek out and utilise statistics that support their position, regardless of accuracy.  This was not a dig at the current govt, or a specific reference to any data currently available.

 

Rather, it was a comment on politicians generally and a conjecture that given choice of models, politicians will always chose the one that produce outcomes supporting their view/policy/position.  I.e. using the lamp-post for support rather than illumination.

 

 

You didn't show an example of where the present government is "data-dredging" C-19 epidemic data to support their position.  You used a generalisation about "politicians", then a fallacious argument that because politicians do it, then all data presented by politicians must be suspect, then projected to try to create a conspiracy theory that the government "must be" lying or covering up C-19 statistics.

 

That's crazy.

 

 


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  #2481852 12-May-2020 12:30
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Fred99:

 

MikeAqua:

 

My claim was that all politicians (see bold above), tend to seek out and utilise statistics that support their position, regardless of accuracy.  This was not a dig at the current govt, or a specific reference to any data currently available.

 

Rather, it was a comment on politicians generally and a conjecture that given choice of models, politicians will always chose the one that produce outcomes supporting their view/policy/position.  I.e. using the lamp-post for support rather than illumination.

 

 

You didn't show an example of where the present government is "data-dredging" C-19 epidemic data to support their position.  You used a generalisation about "politicians", then a fallacious argument that because politicians do it, then all data presented by politicians must be suspect, then projected to try to create a conspiracy theory that the government "must be" lying or covering up C-19 statistics.

 

That's crazy.

 

 

I give up.  

 

 





Mike

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