NZ Election 2020

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#2529075 26-Jul-2020 18:08

Handle9:
GV27:

Seriously? She's going to appeal to more National voters than Bridges and Muller. I'd say she's a lock for at least 30% straight off the bat.

Yip. Preferred Pm is always a nightmare poll for opposition leaders. Ardern polled in the 30s in the lead up to the 2017 election which was very unusual. In 2014 Shearer and Cunliffe were in the 10-15% range, which is what Collins should expect against very popular prime minister.

14.6% in the Newshub poll.

National at 25%

Ugly.

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Handle9

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#2529076 26-Jul-2020 18:09

GV27:

Wowee that Newshub poll. So bad.

The Newshub polls tend to swing a bit towards Labour. Colmar Brunton will likely be a bit closer.

GV27

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#2529093 26-Jul-2020 18:50

Handle9:

The Newshub polls tend to swing a bit towards Labour. Colmar Brunton will likely be a bit closer.

The main trend I picked up on was Act's vote going up and National going down. If there ever was a definition of a Pyrrhic victory, it's pretending ACT voters are just dropping out of the sky instead of defecting en masse from National, who are also losing votes in the centre.

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#2529134 26-Jul-2020 19:03

GV27:

Handle9:

The Newshub polls tend to swing a bit towards Labour. Colmar Brunton will likely be a bit closer.

The main trend I picked up on was Act's vote going up and National going down. If there ever was a definition of a Pyrrhic victory, it's pretending ACT voters are just dropping out of the sky instead of defecting en masse from National, who are also losing votes in the centre.

There's been a somewhat under reported story about ACTs rise in the polls. By going full dog whistle they have been able to mobilise a fairly motivated group of voters (guns, free speech at any cost etc). Apparently they had 600 people at their campaign launch.

Compared to NZ Firsts 250 people that turned up it's significant.

They are definitely picking up disaffected National voters but they have taken some steps to try and broaden their appeal.

quickymart

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#2529153 26-Jul-2020 19:32

I know a fair few voters, but I can't say I know any who vote for Act.

And Collins won't resign this close to the election - but does anyone remember what Muller's numbers were like after he took over as leader?

antonknee

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#2529168 26-Jul-2020 20:15

Newshub poll don't reflect good numbers for National, and apparently Newshub/Reid Research were the most accurate last election. I very much disagree with Collins/Brownlee's assertion it's a rogue poll. On the contrary, it mirrors a trend for National that has been in place for a while now. The Colmar Brunton poll that had National in the high 30s is in fact looking more and more like the rogue poll.

On another note, I have a very strong distaste for the way Newshub and Tova O'Brien presented this poll tonight. Totally sensational and over the top - "bazooka" and whatever else was said. I already preferred TVNZ to Newshub but that's really cemented it for me.

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#2529194 26-Jul-2020 21:12

I wonder what National's internal polling shows their numbers as then?
Of course, I personally think internal polling is a waste of time, I reckon they're biased towards whatever party is running the poll.

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#2529200 26-Jul-2020 21:26

quickymart:

I wonder what National's internal polling shows their numbers as then?
Of course, I personally think internal polling is a waste of time, I reckon they're biased towards whatever party is running the poll.

If there is any difference then they can say "that's not what our polling says." There is a reason why the parties don't release their internal polls - they gain no benefit for doing so but rather use it to determine how they are performing and why.

Internal polling is immensely useful for political parties, especially issues based polls. If it's +- 5% it doesn't matter as much as the trends.

The article below shows how they use issues polls, take a look about half way down when Ardern describes the issues that the electorate cared about in 2017.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/12-09-2018/i-remember-the-crunch-point-jacinda-ardern-looks-back-on-the-2017-election/

An example is the most likely reason Labour jumped on charging returning expats for quarantine is that it probably polled very well.

antonknee

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#2529407 27-Jul-2020 12:56

Handle9:

An example is the most likely reason Labour jumped on charging returning expats for quarantine is that it probably polled very well.

Interesting. Maybe I live in a bubble, but literally no one I've spoken to supports this concept. I know of a couple who would support charging people who leave now and come back (eg some kind of holiday or business trip) but not Kiwis coming home.

GV27

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#2529413 27-Jul-2020 13:19

antonknee:

Handle9:

An example is the most likely reason Labour jumped on charging returning expats for quarantine is that it probably polled very well.

Interesting. Maybe I live in a bubble, but literally no one I've spoken to supports this concept. I know of a couple who would support charging people who leave now and come back (eg some kind of holiday or business trip) but not Kiwis coming home.

Swings and roundabouts - many I speak to fail to see why Kiwis who have lived offshore for some time should get to dictate terms over how NZ runs its quarantine process that protects the people who made real sacrifices during our lockdown. The audicity of co-opting themselves onto 'the team of five million' for doing literally nothing does not endear me to their cause.

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#2529475 27-Jul-2020 13:57

antonknee:

Handle9:

An example is the most likely reason Labour jumped on charging returning expats for quarantine is that it probably polled very well.

Interesting. Maybe I live in a bubble, but literally no one I've spoken to supports this concept. I know of a couple who would support charging people who leave now and come back (eg some kind of holiday or business trip) but not Kiwis coming home.

I'm broadly in favour of returnees contributing towards their quarantine upkeep. I heard one Uk resident NZer complain that they 'often don't have a say in the circumstances of their return' (meaning sick relatives etc) but he forgot to say they did have a choice in their departure.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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#2529663 27-Jul-2020 16:10

antonknee:

Handle9:

An example is the most likely reason Labour jumped on charging returning expats for quarantine is that it probably polled very well.

Interesting. Maybe I live in a bubble, but literally no one I've spoken to supports this concept. I know of a couple who would support charging people who leave now and come back (eg some kind of holiday or business trip) but not Kiwis coming home.

It's popular because it appeals to the base nastiness of "othering." Much like bashing beneficiaries or Maori it allows a smug sense of superiority without any need for examination of circumstances or introspection.

It's harder to attack beneficiaries at the moment with half the country having been on some form of welfare payment so it's much easier to pick some other group to blame. Similarly the Asian population has encountered a heap of low level racism although that is unfortunately far more normal.

gzt

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#2529768 27-Jul-2020 19:18

It's been much more than low level. I've read stories where various forms of harassment have occured on the street and in schools. I consider this to be very serious and I'd like to see much more reaction and preventive action about this.

GV27

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#2529775 27-Jul-2020 19:34

Handle9:

It's popular because it appeals to the base nastiness of "othering." Much like bashing beneficiaries or Maori it allows a smug sense of superiority without any need for examination of circumstances or introspection.

I could apply your statement to both sides of the expat quarantine cost debate, tbh. it shouldn't be surprising that being subjected to huge economic stress and financial uncertainty makes people not that receptive to having terms dictated to them by Kiwis who haven't lived here and in years didn't have to go through the lockdown that we did.

I suspect we will end up covering the accommodation costs but charging for the food if this is going to be a long term thing. Seems like a decent middle ground.

Collins is apparently releasing the internal polling numbers to her MPs, which means they should be in the public realm sometime tomorrow afternoon.

tdgeek

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#2529780 27-Jul-2020 19:55

GV27:

I suspect we will end up covering the accommodation costs but charging for the food if this is going to be a long term thing. Seems like a decent middle ground.

To avoid this being another boring drama, we need common sense. Set a date that from then is chargeable. If you want to come home but due to roots, loose ends, lack of flights, you can apply for an exemption, or you pay. Its not easy to set a "perfect date" but its s start. Many have not bothered and now want sympathy/freebies, and for many its hard to just jump here.

Or maybe people register, state their case? I can see there are many who held off, and now its become a real safety issue, also not their fault, as riding it out is a sensible option, but not their fault it got worse. Not easy.

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