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quickymart
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  #2491880 26-May-2020 14:41
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I have actually seen in my area quite a few places where previously 2-6 houses were being replaced with apartments - which I think is a good thing.

 

When I was in Asia in January I was blown away by some of the massive apartment blocks here, but there didn't seem to be a lot of homelessness around (in the area I was, anyway).


 
 
 
 

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GV27
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  #2491887 26-May-2020 14:50
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quickymart:

 

I have actually seen in my area quite a few places where previously 2-6 houses were being replaced with apartments - which I think is a good thing.

 

When I was in Asia in January I was blown away by some of the massive apartment blocks here, but there didn't seem to be a lot of homelessness around (in the area I was, anyway).

 

 

Am I right in assuming you're on or near the Shore? Would you like to know the plan to increase capacity on the Northern Busway, which it will hit in the next five years (e.g. we'd have to start building now)? Here it is:

 

 

 

 

 

There is no plan. Any upgrades to transport infrastructure (e.g. light rail) are entirely on hold now because of the CC2M/Dom Road light rail debacle. There was as a plan for an interim North Western busway which could be upgraded to Light Rail, but my understanding is now that is no longer being actively considered. So we have two parts of the city with no rapid transit on the horizon at all and one which is a victim of its own success and has no upgrade path.

 

Again, simply adding more people in without an actual plan is not going to work. 


quickymart
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  #2491893 26-May-2020 15:13
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Yes, you're right, although where I'm looking at is not near the Northern Busway. But I hear what you're saying - there needs to be the capacity to support the population.




Handle9
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  #2491911 26-May-2020 15:53
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quickymart:

^ I agree with that - and as an aside, me getting a flatmate to help pay my mortgage in a potential (future?) place - and an apartment is fine - would not bother me at all. I'm just frustrated that houses in Auckland were reasonably affordable for a long time and now they're not, mostly due to causes outside of my control.


I also get frustrated when I see comments saying "oh that's just the way of the world and the market, live with it". Comments like that come across to me as being from a property owner or investor (Ashley Church, anyone?) who thinks high prices are fantastic and would love to see them stay as high as possible, for as long as possible. That does nothing to help me, just trying to get onto the property ladder.



What do you want? Someone to tell you that it will all be ok and don't worry, you will be able to afford to buy a house on the shore? It'd just be someone blowing smoke up your posterior.

Personally I think that the price of housing in Auckland is obscene. I own a house in Auckland but I'm unlikely to ever live there again as the value proposition to live in Auckland doesn't stack up.

I also recognise the reasons for the price of housing aren't unwinding anytime soon. If there is rapid intensification, and associated building if transport, that is still a 10-15 year process. It's just as likely to add to inflationary pressure as it would make Auckland even more appealing.

It's up to you what you do but I wouldn't expect a dramatic change in house prices. I think that sucks but there are no suggestions in this thread on how that would change.

quickymart
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  #2491974 26-May-2020 17:08
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Thanks for your input, I'll take it under advisement.


tdgeek
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  #2492047 26-May-2020 18:38
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He is right. AKL won't change. If any Govt goes all out to solve the housing and transport issues, that will add weight o living in Auckland, hence demand. If they don't, the demand will still be there. 

 

Look at other locations as many have, and even then they are filling up fast.


tdgeek
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  #2492115 26-May-2020 19:13
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Why NZF has to go

 

National and Labour wont do a non NZF policy in the campaign, they both need to

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300021327/transport-minister-phil-twyford-says-light-rail-on-the-way-but-winston-peters-disagrees

 

Its probably unrealistic to expect both major parties to opt for a minority Govt, so given that NZF peaks in an election. we are stuck?




Handle9
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  #2492119 26-May-2020 19:21
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tdgeek:

 

Why NZF has to go

 

National and Labour wont do a non NZF policy in the campaign, they both need to

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300021327/transport-minister-phil-twyford-says-light-rail-on-the-way-but-winston-peters-disagrees

 

Its probably unrealistic to expect both major parties to opt for a minority Govt, so given that NZF peaks in an election. we are stuck?

 

 

Twyford talks BS (again), Peters makes reasonable points. Peters must go.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2492125 26-May-2020 19:33
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Handle9:

 

tdgeek:

 

Why NZF has to go

 

National and Labour wont do a non NZF policy in the campaign, they both need to

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300021327/transport-minister-phil-twyford-says-light-rail-on-the-way-but-winston-peters-disagrees

 

Its probably unrealistic to expect both major parties to opt for a minority Govt, so given that NZF peaks in an election. we are stuck?

 

 

Twyford talks BS (again), Peters makes reasonable points. Peters must go.

 

 

 

 

Can you elaborate? From what I see LR is suspended due to NZF. Cabinet not Twyford has to decide who builds it, but its suspended?


Handle9
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  #2492132 26-May-2020 19:38
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tdgeek:

 

Can you elaborate? From what I see LR is suspended due to NZF. Cabinet not Twyford has to decide who builds it, but its suspended?

 

 

There's been no cabinet discussion on this for a year. Peters was asked a question by the media and gave a fairly straight forward and sensible answer.

 

Twyford is incompetent. This has been proven repeatedly. I think he is an idiot.

 

Under questioning by National Transport Spokesperson Chris Bishop, Twyford said Cabinet had not considered light rail since 4 June, 2019.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2492208 26-May-2020 20:08
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Handle9:

 

There's been no cabinet discussion on this for a year. Peters was asked a question by the media and gave a fairly straight forward and sensible answer.

 

Twyford is incompetent. This has been proven repeatedly. I think he is an idiot.

 

Under questioning by National Transport Spokesperson Chris Bishop, Twyford said Cabinet had not considered light rail since 4 June, 2019.

 

 

 

 

Isn't the issue deciding who will build it and fund it, before it can go to Govt to decide which? Complicated by reducing interest rates, which make it less appealing to give most of it to Canada at PPP rates, rather than self fund? I agree Twyford is incompetent. The point I was making was irregardless of the deal of who will build it or fund it, its over, as NZF prefers heavy rail, end of story. One would have to hope that NZF is far more capable and less biased than those, not just Twyford, who ate evaluating the proposal. 


Handle9
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  #2492211 26-May-2020 20:14
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tdgeek:

 

Isn't the issue deciding who will build it and fund it, before it can go to Govt to decide which? Complicated by reducing interest rates, which make it less appealing to give most of it to Canada at PPP rates, rather than self fund? I agree Twyford is incompetent. The point I was making was irregardless of the deal of who will build it or fund it, its over, as NZF prefers heavy rail, end of story. One would have to hope that NZF is far more capable and less biased than those, not just Twyford, who ate evaluating the proposal. 

 

 

Twyford is just blathering in the media to make himself appear important. He's been anonymous over the lockdown (thank god) and if he actually wants it discussed bring something to cabinet. Until then I'm assuming he's just spouting nonsense.

 

If he brought something decent to cabinet and it got blocked it would be a different story.


tdgeek
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  #2492219 26-May-2020 20:25
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Handle9:

 

 

 

Twyford is just blathering in the media to make himself appear important. He's been anonymous over the lockdown (thank god) and if he actually wants it discussed bring something to cabinet. Until then I'm assuming he's just spouting nonsense.

 

If he brought something decent to cabinet and it got blocked it would be a different story.

 

 

I dont disagree. Forget Twyford. It isn't at Govt as it hasn't been decided who will build or fund it. Lets say there are say 3 options, forget what Twyford says, there are 3 options. No matter what these are, Light Rail is over, that's my point. So, if and when it goes to Government to decide what to do, its already ended.They may as well shelve it now, and revisit if they succeed in the election and if they go with NZF, throw it out. And let Peters arrange AKL rail transport himself as thats where it seems to have ended up 


dejadeadnz
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  #2492338 26-May-2020 22:42
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Handle9:

What do you want? Someone to tell you that it will all be ok and don't worry, you will be able to afford to buy a house on the shore? It'd just be someone blowing smoke up your posterior.

Personally I think that the price of housing in Auckland is obscene. I own a house in Auckland but I'm unlikely to ever live there again as the value proposition to live in Auckland doesn't stack up.

I also recognise the reasons for the price of housing aren't unwinding anytime soon. If there is rapid intensification, and associated building if transport, that is still a 10-15 year process. It's just as likely to add to inflationary pressure as it would make Auckland even more appealing.

It's up to you what you do but I wouldn't expect a dramatic change in house prices. I think that sucks but there are no suggestions in this thread on how that would change.

 

I agree. @quickymart you also need to recognise that other demographic/social realities aren't in your favour. Auckland is favoured by incoming immigrants and immigrants who are already in NZ. A friend's mother markets a lot of homes targeted at first home buyers and you will be surprised by how many young Asian couples in relatively modest jobs have substantial deposits that are well beyond 20% of traditional starter home prices. Yes, some of that may be gifts from parents but, very often, some of these people would have been working in their parents shops part time during school terms and full time during holidays and saved every dollar they were paid. And typically Asian parents will, no matter how modest or otherwise their means, allow their kids to board at home right throughout university and beyond and not expect any money. And many kids are happy to. Just through such extra social capital and their parents sacrificing and paying university fees etc, there will be sizable chunk of first home buyers who can afford the prices.

 

And if you haven't noticed, the prices in regions and smaller cities are going up as well. As I've said to you before, if home ownership is as important to you as you make it out to be, you need to go seek some budget advice and look at all options. And try to get in ASAP before you are further slipping behind due to many different demographic factors. Insisting on buying a home in one of the most expensive regions in NZ whilst there's no material changes in your circumstances won't do it.

 

 


GV27
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  #2492441 27-May-2020 07:29
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tdgeek:

 

I dont disagree. Forget Twyford. It isn't at Govt as it hasn't been decided who will build or fund it. Lets say there are say 3 options, forget what Twyford says, there are 3 options. No matter what these are, Light Rail is over, that's my point. So, if and when it goes to Government to decide what to do, its already ended.They may as well shelve it now, and revisit if they succeed in the election and if they go with NZF, throw it out. And let Peters arrange AKL rail transport himself as thats where it seems to have ended up 

 

 

Tough pill to swallow for the parts of Auckland with no rapid transit that have been a holding pattern for years waiting for something, anything to happen. 

 

But you're right, Light Rail is dead, as much as I wanted it to work out and be built quickly. 


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