What will happen to National now?

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#2861633 4-Feb-2022 11:15

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/matthew-hooton-can-christopher-luxon-become-pm-and-mend-a-divided-nz/GDPYNLJKMGOHZJI7LAEH25XNMI/ (paywalled)

I think Matthew Hooton may be somewhat biased. Wasn't he involved with Todd Muller's takeover?

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quickymart

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#2867141 12-Feb-2022 16:26

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/peter-dunne-luxons-national-stands-for-nothing-except-winning-power

marmel

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#2867146 12-Feb-2022 16:32

quickymart:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/peter-dunne-luxons-national-stands-for-nothing-except-winning-power

Seems an odd statement given that in recent times Labour were willing to give away taxpayer money in the form of a $3b slush fund to Winnie to assist them into power yet National were not.

networkn

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#2867147 12-Feb-2022 16:33

quickymart:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/peter-dunne-luxons-national-stands-for-nothing-except-winning-power

This article could have been written about the Labour party with the names changed and be basically the same in reverse.

gzt

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#2867207 12-Feb-2022 17:24

By Peter Dunne ROTFL 😂

arcon

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#2867227 12-Feb-2022 18:39

quickymart:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/matthew-hooton-can-christopher-luxon-become-pm-and-mend-a-divided-nz/GDPYNLJKMGOHZJI7LAEH25XNMI/ (paywalled)

I think Matthew Hooton may be somewhat biased. Wasn't he involved with Todd Muller's takeover?

Hooton is a former National staffer & clueless hack, I think it was 2019 he said Ardern will be the first one-term PM since Nash lol.

marmel

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#2867231 12-Feb-2022 19:00

arcon:
quickymart:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/matthew-hooton-can-christopher-luxon-become-pm-and-mend-a-divided-nz/GDPYNLJKMGOHZJI7LAEH25XNMI/ (paywalled)

I think Matthew Hooton may be somewhat biased. Wasn't he involved with Todd Muller's takeover?

Hooton is a former National staffer & clueless hack, I think it was 2019 he said Ardern will be the first one-term PM since Nash lol.

Well to be fair at that point Labour had achieved nothing, homelessness and poverty figures were all heading in the wrong direction, Kiwibuild was a complete flop etc etc. Along came COVID and that completely changed things, people don’t like change during a crisis. Although to be fair National we’re in complete disarray of their own making and we’re not fit to govern either.

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#2874491 25-Feb-2022 07:54

Matthew Hooton is somewhat biased, he also thinks Christopher Luxon and National will win in 2023 (paywalled):

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/matthew-hooton-odds-on-its-christopher-luxon-for-pm-in-2023/5ZX6D7XXLDZUDVTPDFN6SHFPRY/

marmel

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#2874498 25-Feb-2022 08:00

quickymart:
Matthew Hooton is somewhat biased, he also thinks Christopher Luxon and National will win in 2023 (paywalled):

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/matthew-hooton-odds-on-its-christopher-luxon-for-pm-in-2023/5ZX6D7XXLDZUDVTPDFN6SHFPRY/

I think National will fancy their chances. Unless something further develops with COVID we will be in the post COVID era. There will be more focus on the real situation which will be much higher interest rates, higher inflation, huge government debt etc. more focus on what Labour has actually achieved on housing and poverty which at the moment is almost nothing. If National can hold it together and come together behind Luxon then I think they have a pretty good chance.

GV27

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#2874529 25-Feb-2022 08:44

National will soon have to start fleshing out policy positions that aren't just "No, we won't do that" or "We'll cancel this".

Their Light Rail response plan of more buses is totally useless for Auckland, which will end up with buses that run so often they can never stop to let people on. A lot of key corridors are out of space for roads too. At some point, they're going to have to come up with a transport plan - I would have thought their donor base would be all about huge transport projects with massive lead times but apparently not.

They also need to float some tax policy that isn't just 'adjust the brackets for inflation' which they didn't even try to sell to the electorate last time, and continues to be a major issue for many who are getting pay increases that barely keep up with inflation. I'd be hoping for wholesale tax bracket reform and revising our massively outdated Student Loan repayment thresholds.

Honestly, I just don't think they have it in them. They've promoted too many contrarians and the actual policy visionaries like English, Joyce and Finlayson are gone, with no obvious replacements.

marmel

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#2874580 25-Feb-2022 09:53

GV27:
National will soon have to start fleshing out policy positions that aren't just "No, we won't do that" or "We'll cancel this".

Their Light Rail response plan of more buses is totally useless for Auckland, which will end up with buses that run so often they can never stop to let people on. A lot of key corridors are out of space for roads too. At some point, they're going to have to come up with a transport plan - I would have thought their donor base would be all about huge transport projects with massive lead times but apparently not.

They also need to float some tax policy that isn't just 'adjust the brackets for inflation' which they didn't even try to sell to the electorate last time, and continues to be a major issue for many who are getting pay increases that barely keep up with inflation. I'd be hoping for wholesale tax bracket reform and revising our massively outdated Student Loan repayment thresholds.

Honestly, I just don't think they have it in them. They've promoted too many contrarians and the actual policy visionaries like English, Joyce and Finlayson are gone, with no obvious replacements.

Possibly but they only have to compete with the current government which has shown repeatedly they are extremely short of any genuine talent beyond 2-3 key positions.

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#2874582 25-Feb-2022 09:55

Yup, anyone who thinks National have a really good chance at the next election needs their head read. They have almost no policy positions on anything of importance, and where they do it's not clearly articulated. Their recent success in polls I think can be attributed solely to Luxon being not as bad as Collins; a realisation that actually ACT is still just the Seymour and maybe van Velden show; and some dissatisfaction with Labour.

There is a glaring lack of talent in National's caucus now, most of their MPs bring almost nothing to the table - Hipango, Brown, Lee, McClay, Bennett, Dean, Pugh, Grigg, Mooney, Simmonds. Bishop, Willis, Stanford, maybe Reti are the obvious exceptions (although Bish is decidedly unlikeable IMO).

Luxon also has a challenge around how to position National - should he play to the reactionary/conservative/grumpy farmer/rich & white/anything but Labour bases which stuck with them through the dark days or does he try and appeal to the middle swing voter? You can see this struggle in his inconsistent approach to things like mandates, the protest, Covid restrictions, etc.

GV27

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#2874590 25-Feb-2022 10:07

marmel:

Possibly but they only have to compete with the current government which has shown repeatedly they are extremely short of any genuine talent beyond 2-3 key positions.

The threshold for getting rid of a Govt in before the third term is incredibly high. Even if they were a credible government-in-waiting (and they aren't), it would be a huge ask.

It's quite something that given what Labour have managed to not achieve, National are still 50/50 on being seen as a viable alternative.

marmel

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#2874594 25-Feb-2022 10:08

antonknee:
Yup, anyone who thinks National have a really good chance at the next election needs their head read. They have almost no policy positions on anything of importance, and where they do it's not clearly articulated. Their recent success in polls I think can be attributed solely to Luxon being not as bad as Collins; a realisation that actually ACT is still just the Seymour and maybe van Velden show; and some dissatisfaction with Labour.

There is a glaring lack of talent in National's caucus now, most of their MPs bring almost nothing to the table - Hipango, Brown, Lee, McClay, Bennett, Dean, Pugh, Grigg, Mooney, Simmonds. Bishop, Willis, Stanford, maybe Reti are the obvious exceptions (although Bish is decidedly unlikeable IMO).

Luxon also has a challenge around how to position National - should he play to the reactionary/conservative/grumpy farmer/rich & white/anything but Labour bases which stuck with them through the dark days or does he try and appeal to the middle swing voter? You can see this struggle in his inconsistent approach to things like mandates, the protest, Covid restrictions, etc.

See my comment above, they only have to compete against Labour who have a record of achieving nothing and failing in policy promises made in 2017. COVID was labours saviour in some ways as it diverted attention away that would normally be applied by the media. Come 2023 if COVID is no longer an issue there is going to be a lot more scrutiny on Labour and what they have or haven’t achieved.

quickymart

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#2874596 25-Feb-2022 10:10

For transport, I really think National needs to come up with more of a plan than just "more, endless roads". Fuel prices aren't exactly on the low side at the moment, and probably won't be for a while (if ever). Who's going to drive on all their roads if they can't afford the petrol to do it?

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