What will happen to National now?

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Awrrr
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#3008819 12-Dec-2022 09:31

networkn:

That or another disaster they can distract the public. Right now, whilst not everything is Labours fault certainly, their lack of delivery, lack of planning and lack of execution is front and center.

Record is stuck... record is stuck... record is stuck... record is stuck...

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GV27

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#3008821 12-Dec-2022 09:36

gzt: Labour's organization in Hamilton West would have been hard hit by Sharma leaving. Voter turnout for this by-election was a record low. There's every chance Labour will swing it back at the general election.

I mean there's excuses and then there's spin. They're the biggest party in the house with an absolute majority, yet they knew they were on a hiding to nothing. If there wasn't enough resources for the campaigning there it's because they didn't commit them, not because they didn't have them.

While most by-elections end up being protest votes against sitting governments, national polling is heading in one direction and people aren't going to sit back and make excuses for the government presiding over a hugely deteriorating quality of life. I think there may have been a period where people didn't want to admit they'd been hoodwinked with unrealistic and fanciful promises, but now that it's clear the government is willing to expend political capital on things like the RNZ merger and 3 Waters, and not on things like tax reform or house building, people are becoming wise to the fact that Labour isn't going to just suddenly start delivering on the stuff they said they would. They are incapable of it, perhaps pathologically so.

So as to National, and whether they're any better - probably not. But provided they don't have a 2020 style implosion, they simply just have to be not-Labour to win the election. So which is worse, a party that can sleepwalk to an election win, or a party that doesn't feel like it should have to deliver on what it campaigns on no matter what it is?

I know who the losers are in this situation.

networkn

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#3008826 12-Dec-2022 09:59

Rikkitic:

Record is stuck... record is stuck... record is stuck... record is stuck...

Which part of my comment do you disagree with?

Rikkitic

Awrrr
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#3008874 12-Dec-2022 10:33

networkn:

Rikkitic:

Record is stuck... record is stuck... record is stuck... record is stuck...

Which part of my comment do you disagree with?

The part we have all heard a million times already. Everyone here knows, in excruciating detail, what you think of the government and its performance. We have all heard it many times before. Anyone you could have convinced has been convinced. The rest are just covering their ears in despair. Try to think of something new. Pick any one thing and explain with actual examples how a different government might do it better. Not just Labour is incompetent. That has become very old.

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GV27

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#3008877 12-Dec-2022 10:38

Rikkitic:

Try to think of something new. Pick any one thing and explain with actual examples how a different government might do it better. Not just Labour is incompetent. That has become very old.

I didn't realise we had to offer fully worked and costed alternatives before we could criticise the government of the day.

tdgeek

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#3008878 12-Dec-2022 10:45

GV27:

Rikkitic:

Try to think of something new. Pick any one thing and explain with actual examples how a different government might do it better. Not just Labour is incompetent. That has become very old.

I didn't realise we had to offer fully worked and costed alternatives before we could criticise the government of the day.

LOL. That explains it perfectly!

gzt

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#3008940 12-Dec-2022 12:59

sen8or:
gzt: Labour's organization in Hamilton West would have been hard hit by Sharma leaving. Voter turnout for this by-election was a record low. There's every chance Labour will swing it back at the general election.

Maaate, your dreamin

Labour would have to perform another fairy dust miracle, similar to 2017 to shift the antiestablishment sentiment that exists at the moment.

Realistically byelections usually do swing against the government and are seen as a barometer regardless of how safe they are. In this case it's never been a safe seat for Labour. Completely agree it will be a hard road to win Hamilton West back at the general election but a week is a long time in politics and there's probably 52 of those to go.

Technofreak

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#3009017 12-Dec-2022 14:59

Rikkitic:

The part we have all heard a million times already. Everyone here knows, in excruciating detail, what you think of the government and its performance. We have all heard it many times before. Anyone you could have convinced has been convinced. The rest are just covering their ears in despair. Try to think of something new. Pick any one thing and explain with actual examples how a different government might do it better. Not just Labour is incompetent. That has become very old.

It might be old but it is true. Some New Zealanders knew this before the last election, some didn't or pretended it wasn't so. Some people need things repeated until they understand. Slowly more and more are coming to understand how incompetent this government is.

It's not how it might be done better, it's just a matter of actually doing it to start with.

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Varkk

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#3009341 13-Dec-2022 09:35

gzt: Labour's organization in Hamilton West would have been hard hit by Sharma leaving. Voter turnout for this by-election was a record low. There's every chance Labour will swing it back at the general election.

I highly doubt that, Hamilton West was a reasonably safe National seat until Sharma won it in 2020. It was one of the surprise electorate wins from that night.

gzt

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#3011207 17-Dec-2022 11:11

Garage-gate. When I heard Luxon's comments I figured he was either a bit clueless or racist or both:

NZHerald: When asked about how National would prevent youth crime, Luxon said: “If you’re sitting in a garage in South Auckland with your two brothers and you’re thinking about life and where you’re going, consciously or unconsciously, the gang life looks pretty attractive..

Then he responded with what sounded like a hard nosed doubledown to me. Since then Luxon and his team have spent time saying the original comments were taken out of context. I have looked for the original interview, so far without success.

Rikkitic

Awrrr
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#3011213 17-Dec-2022 12:00

gzt: Garage-gate. When I heard Luxon's comments I figured he was either a bit clueless or racist or both:

NZHerald: When asked about how National would prevent youth crime, Luxon said: “If you’re sitting in a garage in South Auckland with your two brothers and you’re thinking about life and where you’re going, consciously or unconsciously, the gang life looks pretty attractive..

Then he responded with what sounded like a hard nosed doubledown to me. Since then Luxon and his team have spent time saying the original comments were taken out of context. I have looked for the original interview, so far without success.

Not easy to find. He must have something to hide. Here is an excerpt:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cl2h1Qyr_yC/

Edit: I thought I would add this link, where I found the excerpt. It is well worth a closer look.

2nd edit: I just checked the first link and it wants me to log in to Instagram. Just click on it in the Spinoff article. That is what worked for me.

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gzt

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#3012073 19-Dec-2022 17:24

Maori psychologists association objects to boot camp policy:

NZHerald: This letter from He Paiaka Tōtara: Māori Psychologists, raises our serious concerns with the National Party’s recently announced policy for combating youth crime, which includes ankle bracelets for tamariki as young as 10, and sending serious youth offenders to “Young Offender Military Academies”.

This is nuts. In my opinion National need to consult with Bill English on social investment solutions to these issues.

Technofreak

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#3012123 19-Dec-2022 22:38

gzt: Maori psychologists association objects to boot camp policy:

NZHerald: This letter from He Paiaka Tōtara: Māori Psychologists, raises our serious concerns with the National Party’s recently announced policy for combating youth crime, which includes ankle bracelets for tamariki as young as 10, and sending serious youth offenders to “Young Offender Military Academies”.

This is nuts. In my opinion National need to consult with Bill English on social investment solutions to these issues.

I agree with you for once.

The really sad thing is that if Winston had put the interests of the country ahead of his personal interests we would have already had 5 years of Bill English's social investment solutions.

On the night of the 2017 election Te Ururoa Flavell, the Maori party co-leader (who had just lost his seat) said, on national TV, that in his opinion Bill English was the best person to be running the country. He had spent several years in coalition with National working along side Bill English. Mr Flavell had nothing to gain by backing Bill English.

Instead since 2017 things have got worse at a great rate of knots.

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quickymart

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#3023164 18-Jan-2023 11:12

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-national-cant-be-allowed-to-sleepwalk-to-victory/OAAZ4AMTBNFFHKPVTD3IITD7TM/

Bryce Edwards takes a look at National and its strategy heading up to the election later this year.

JPNZ

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#3023167 18-Jan-2023 11:15

quickymart:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-national-cant-be-allowed-to-sleepwalk-to-victory/OAAZ4AMTBNFFHKPVTD3IITD7TM/

Bryce Edwards takes a look at National and its strategy heading up to the election later this year.

63% Chance is a bit light IMHO. I'd put it closer to 75%

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