2022 Ukraine Tensions

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#2876177 28-Feb-2022 11:53

I'm not sure it stacks up as a land-grab - Putin is expending a lot of political capital for some wheat-fields and combine harvesters.

This was about 'Denazification' a week ago, so whatever reason they were planning on spinning to the Russian populace is possibly out of date.

None of this makes any sense at all. I'm still not convinced he isn't working an angle, even with the supposedly poor performance of the Russian military to date.

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SaltyNZ

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#2876180 28-Feb-2022 11:55

freitasm:

Basically a post with Russia's views on Ukraine after the war as a full member state of the Russian Federation. Basically the crap "we are saving their people" is about a lie as it could be - ultimately it is a land grab.

That is quite the swivel-eyed manifesto.

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#2876185 28-Feb-2022 11:59

4 days ago they were doing peacekeeping duties

Next week they will want to launch nuclear weapons to save the planet

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

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#2876187 28-Feb-2022 12:01

By they I mean that one person

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

neb

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#2876198 28-Feb-2022 12:16

Batman: Next week they will want to launch nuclear weapons to save the planet

Putin's grasp on power relies on the support of the oligarchs and the military. Once they start asking themselves "where is this maniac leading us", if they're not doing so already, it's curtains for him.

Arrest and making him the scapegoat while everyone else tries to resume normal operation world be one scenario.

CruciasNZ

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#2876202 28-Feb-2022 12:21

It occurs to me we're watching a badly scripted and very expensive knock off of the novel Red Storm Rising playing out in real life :/

Hopefully, like in the novel, the Red Army officers refuse to use the nukes after being ordered to do so, and that someone removes the clearly unstable leader from power (in the book they were arrested, though it was implied it was a Soviet "arrest" - simply throwing the nutter in jail would get the job done)

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GV27

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#2876216 28-Feb-2022 12:52

CruciasNZ:

It occurs to me we're watching a badly scripted and very expensive knock off of the novel Red Storm Rising playing out in real life :/

Hopefully, like in the novel, the Red Army officers refuse to use the nukes after being ordered to do so, and that someone removes the clearly unstable leader from power (in the book they were arrested, though it was implied it was a Soviet "arrest" - simply throwing the nutter in jail would get the job done)

I don't know if I like the sound of a post-Putin power vacuum anymore than the current state of affairs tbh. The fact he hasn't been Beria'd already shows there must be some support for him in the upper echelons, those people won't disappear if Putin very unfortunately suffers a medical event while inspecting the barrel of his side-arm.

What worries me more is that the longer this draws out, the more likely we are to see an accidental flash-point; a false alarm or similar that someone may previously have simply gone "Oh, well that's clearly wrong" and ignored may well suddenly get very out of hand.

History is full of near-misses that we only find out about years later and we are operating in extremely thin margins for error at the moment.

ezbee

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#2876233 28-Feb-2022 12:55

Interview with Gary Kasparov on Putin and Ukraine.
Once Russian chess grandmaster, and now activist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYhsloRid_c

What I got from this.

Pretty much that resolute action might seem to have a high price now.
Price for not doing this though and calling his bluff even higher for longer.

Puttin
Greatest mistake/tragedy the breakup of USSR
Once KGB always KGB
Hates constraints of the world order on powerful 'like him' to do what they want.
Rise of Autocracy is a just revenge for above
America is only talk, red lines etc ( Probably goes double for everyone else )

To me the whole Nuke threat is bluff, as when you do a whole bunch come back the other way.

5 Questions for Stephen Kotkin ( Professor of history at Princeton )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ul1gsIdlJFs

Starts with question about what does Xi want, at about 15.20 what does Putin want.
Interesting thing here is the withdrawal to a very small group of advisers means not much leaks out.
Makes him very insulated from any opinion but his own.

36.00 Goes onto Ukraine before his mad action, and yes somewhat blindsided.
Overestimated how much Putin is constrained by public opinion.
Though yes the axis of attack is Kyiv, but using old fashioned war.
Remove or force the Government out put in your own.

End bit is on what has happened to politics in America, and we see here as well.

GV27

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#2876260 28-Feb-2022 13:25

Belarus has apparently voted to approve a new constitution that abandon their nuclear-free status.

And now this:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1498088791604891649

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced that Ukraine belongs in the European Union and the bloc wants the country to join — a rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own claims over the Eastern European country."

This is rapidly getting out of hand.

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#2876263 28-Feb-2022 13:29

GV27:

I don't know if I like the sound of a post-Putin power vacuum anymore than the current state of affairs tbh. The fact he hasn't been Beria'd already shows there must be some support for him in the upper echelons, those people won't disappear if Putin very unfortunately suffers a medical event while inspecting the barrel of his side-arm.

The support exists while the oligarchs make money. When things stop working for them Putin will be in a bad situation. Not long before his body shows up in the river.

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#2876264 28-Feb-2022 13:29

Press release:

New Zealand is providing humanitarian aid to support those in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today.

“Aotearoa New Zealand stands by the people of Ukraine impacted by Russia’s unprovoked invasion,” Nanaia Mahuta said.

“It is deeply disturbing to hear reports of the growing numbers of deaths and injuries from this conflict. The harrowing and horrific images of displaced, or suffering civilians, in Ukraine speak volumes of this unfolding tragedy, and underlines the consequences of Russia’s unprovoked aggression.

“New Zealand is providing an initial $2 million to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to help deliver essential humanitarian assistance, with a focus on supporting health facilities and meeting basic needs such as provision of food and hygiene items.

“These are early days and we will continue to monitor events closely as the scale of the conflict, and the resulting humanitarian crisis, becomes clearer. We know the consequences of Russia’s actions will be significant, and tragically many of these will fall on innocent civilians.

“We repeat our call, alongside international partners, for Russia to cease military operations in Ukraine, and immediately and permanently withdraw to avoid a catastrophic and pointless loss of innocent life.

“Russia must take all possible steps to protect civilians in line with international humanitarian law, and return to diplomatic negotiations to de-escalate the conflict,” Nanaia Mahuta said.

New Zealand also provides annual funding to the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund, which has announced it has allocated $20 million to help humanitarian agencies scale up their Ukraine response.

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GV27

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#2876266 28-Feb-2022 13:43

freitasm:

The support exists while the oligarchs make money. When things stop working for them Putin will be in a bad situation. Not long before his body shows up in the river.

That's the puzzling thing. Whatever the end-game is, the sanctions and such were entirely foreseeable - so he must think that whatever he has planned is worth it.

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#2876364 28-Feb-2022 15:05

Reports are Putin is holed up, in mountain lair. Taken oligarchs with him so they can’t flee Russia. Not sure how they’d take him out, if he’s the one taken them prisoner.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-invades-ukraine-furious-russian-president-reportedly-holed-up-in-mountain-lair/NZT7M77YGRNSF544R2PTDPDL6Q/

"According to Terras, Putin was holed up in his "lair in the Urals", and brought Russian oligarchs with him so they couldn't flee the country."

neb

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#2876365 28-Feb-2022 15:13

rugrat:
Reports are Putin is holed up, in mountain lair. Taken oligarchs with him so they can’t flee Russia. Not sure how they’d take him out, if he’s the one taken them prisoner.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-invades-ukraine-furious-russian-president-reportedly-holed-up-in-mountain-lair/NZT7M77YGRNSF544R2PTDPDL6Q/

This is telling:

"Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days,"

That's how pretty much every standard war (so not an escalation like Vietnam or Afghanistan) ever starts. In WWI the German troops were going to be in Paris by the weekend. He gambled, he lost, and it's all downhill from now on. I'd say his days are numbered.

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#2876370 28-Feb-2022 15:33

Right, but if they capture Putin, will it be like Saddam again, or something different? (genuine question)

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